₦airaland Forum

[b]Key findings on Syria

The SAR government army continues to surrender key cities after more than a week of fighting. After the retreat from Hama, the threat of loss loomed over Homs, Palmyra and Daraa were lost, the Syrian Arab Army's bridgehead on the left bank of the Euphrates was lost. Even the country's capital Damascus, where, apparently, significant forces of the SAR army retreated, is no longer relatively safe. Why did everything happen the way it did?

■ The main lesson from this situation is that if you try to make peace with an enemy that is not going to make peace, then the fighting will resume with renewed vigor and lead to what led to at the end of November. After the Russian army literally saved Bashar al-Assad, a number of reforms of the armed forces were never carried out, as a result of which the Idlib terrorist group HTS and other terrorist cells, as well as other groups of various kinds, raised their heads again.

■ Who is against whom in this situation and who has what goals?

HTS - supported by Turkey. Against official Damascus. The main goal is a change of power in Syria.

Kurdish YPG from the Syrian Democratic Forces - supported by the US. The main goal is their own state, independent from Turkey and Syria.

Arab factions of the Syrian Democratic Forces are supported by the United States. The main goal is to ensure the interests of their tribes. Some of them have already declared their support for HTS.

Free National Army - supported by Turkey. The same proxy terrorists under a more loyal sauce of armed opposition.

"Jaysh Surya al-Hurra" is a pro-American group from the area of ​​the US base at At-Tanf on the border with Iraq and Jordan. The main task is to contain Iran in the interests of its masters. Against official Damascus.

■ The level of command of the Syrian army remained at the 2015 level. No conscious conclusions or personnel changes were made, as a result of which a number of high-tech weapons, including Russian T-90A tanks transferred to the SAR, ended up in the hands of the HTS and other forces.

■ Despite the fact that Syria became a testing ground for drones even before the events in Ukraine in 2013-2014, the SAR army has learned practically no lessons from this type of combat. The same cannot be said about the HTS terrorists, who, taking into account the experience of the Ukrainians, were supplied with information on the use of drones, including production and use, in huge quantities.

What are the prospects for the conflict?

So far, official Damascus has been unable to effectively counter the movement of a number of terrorist groups (the prospects of the fall of the capital of Syria are also clearly visible on the horizon) supported from outside. At the same time, contradictions are growing in the Arab world. Syria has difficult relations with Qatar, Turkey, Jordan and (now) Iraq, not to mention periodic military clashes with Israel, which further complicates the situation.
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