Oyo Politics: The Race to Agodi

By: Deji Yesufu

Oyo State was one of two states in South West Nigeria were the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) won in the Presidential elections that held on February 23, 2019. Most political observers who saw the mode of voting in the state that Saturday, had predicted a wide margin of victory for Atiku Abubakar in Ibadan. It however turned out that he won by a little over a thousand votes only. This result has sent shock waves down the spine of political warlords in South Western Nigeria. Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the All Progressive Congress (APC) leader, has determined that Oyo State is not lost to the opposition – particularly the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

In Oyo State the leading contenders for the seat of power in Agodi (Ibadan) are Adebayo Adelabu, the one called Penkelemesi, of the APC; Seyi Makinde of the PDP; Femi Lanlehin of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala of the Action Democratic Party (ADP). Since the results of the Presidential elections emerged, the APC has been pursuing an alliance with Akala of the ADP. The reason is because Akala has a block of votes from the four local government that make up Ogbomoso that are usually game changers for any contender for the governorship in the State. Akala is an Ogbomoso man and he is known to cart away no less than 95% of the votes from that part of the State. If Adelabu is able to reach an alliance with Akala, his march to Agodi is almost sure.

This scenario is however threatened by the rising profile of Engr. Seyi Makinde of the PDP. Seyi Makinde entered into Oyo politics in 2007 as a very young man. In fact, the only thing that the people of the state tended to hold against him was his seeming lack of experience. He has however remained dogged in his ambition to be Governor of the State and has sought the seat at Agodi at every election these twelve years. In 2018, he outsmarted Rashidi Ladoja in the Oyo State PDP and gained control of the party. He eventually emerged as the party’s Gubernatorial candidate. His profile has been on the rise since then. Seyi Makinde also continued to increase in popularity in the light of the miscalculations of the incumbent Governor, Abiola Ajimobi. When Ajimobi moved bulldozers and destroyed the radio station of Yinka Ayefele, a leading gospel musician in South West Nigeria, Seyi Makinde was about the first to pay him a condolence visit. The picture of Mr. Makinde standing by a distraught Ayefele went viral and was indeed suggesting to the people of Oyo State that he was a better substitute to whoever would succeed Ajimobi. The Ajimobi government made all efforts to rebuild both Ayefele’s house and their own ruined reputation after this, but the damage had been done. Ibadan people had taken note and they were going to pay back to whoever sought to run on Ajimobi’s party.

Thus entered Adelabu. Adebayo Adelabu is the grandson of the Ibadan political warlord of the 1950s – Adegoke Adelabu. He has since inherited his grandfather’s nickname – Penkelemesi. Adelabu has done extremely well in the cooperate world. He was a top manager at First Bank before going on to become deputy Governor of Nigeria’s Central Bank. He has since resigned his job to run for political office. One down side of Adelabu is the resurrection of political violence that his campaigns seem to bring everywhere he goes. His supporters are mostly transporters who are known to utilize guns to threaten their opponents and cower people into submission. It is feared that a vote for Adelabu shall be a vote for a return to the dark days of brigandage in Oyo State political life.

To give Adelabu an edge at the polls, Tinubu has sought an alliance with Adebayo Akala. It is very likely that the Ogbomoso old political fox would give in. Then the Asiwaju of Lagos has called Abiola Ajimobi to take a back seat in Oyo State politics this week of the elections. Tinubu’s argument is that Ibadan is not necessarily unhappy with the APC; it is Ajimobi they cannot stand. For this reason, the people of Oyo voted in two Senators from the APC but refused to give Ajimobi a seat to Nigeria’s 9th senate. The same fate befell the President, making him to loose the State to Atiku. Tinubu is determined that this would not happen again.

If there is a state that has the possibility of going into a run-off come March 9th, 2019, it is Oyo State. The race to be Governor in this state would be close and stiff; only the strongest will survive. The opposition would need all the resources to monitor the votes that come in for them. They would need to ensure that there are no stolen votes. At the close of the race, this writer predicts that Seyi Makinde would emerge Governor of Oyo State. It would be the beginning of the end of the political dominance of Tinubu in South West Nigeria. This would be happening even as power will be removing from the APC to the Allied People’s Movement (APM) in Ogun State, the party backed by the incumbent Governor - Ibikunle Amosun.

In Oyo State it would be fight to finish.
Deji Yesufu is the author of the book Victor Banjo. He can be reached on newdejix@gmail.com

Source: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2026423364100530&id=1505609702848568