I am going to talk about how the 3 major candidates can fail the next year's general election.

From what I observed, failing the next year's election is very easy and is likely for even the two major parties, APC and PDP.

First, if Atiku wins the North East and North West he can still fail the next year's election if he doesn't secure at least 70% of the total South South and South East vote. Anything lower than that, Atiku should prepare to visit Dubai. He has failed.

My respected elder, Tinubu, the Jagaban will fail the election if he wins the South West but fails to secure 70% from North East and North West. It will be a regional vote but will not amount to any win for him.

As for the new "kid" in the game, very young but dangerous. If Obi wins the South East and South South with at least 70% he is already on his way to Aso Rock. But his win will be sure if he gets 50% from the North Central. He can only be beating by Atiku if Atiku gets 80% of the Northern votes. And, he will be blocking Atiku from winning if Tinubu wins at least 70% from the North.

Let’s summarize this quickly.

Atiku must get 70% for SS and SE, 70% from NE and NW to win the 2023 general election. Anything less than this is a win to Tinubu or Obi.

Tinubu must get 70% from SW, 10% from SE, 30% from SS, 60% from NE and NW, then at least 20% from NC. Anything lower than this is a fail already and a win to Atiku or Obi.

Peter Obi must get 70% from SS, 70% from SE, 30% from SW, 50% from NC and 10% from NE and NW. Anything less than this will likely favour Tinubu if Tinubu wins NE, NW and SW.