₦airaland Forum

Jonathan’s End Game

Please Note: Before publishing this, I had some friends read it and they told me it makes for uncomfortable reading. So there's my disclaimer. Proceed at your own peril.


Harsh reality is better than false hope. The reality right now is that Jonathan is winning and he will continue to unless we out-think and out-fight him. I will detail how Jonathan intends to win, starting with NOT holding elections on March 28th, 2015. But first, let’s recap how this drama has unfolded.

February 14, 2015—A Romantic Idea Turned Sour

In 2011, the majority of Nigerians elected Goodluck Jonathan to power in a relatively free and fair election. They elected him partly because of hope but mainly because of love. We all love to root for the underdog. He has a good story, a curious name and a humble demeanor. With these sentiments he was swept into power. He contested against a known fellow, Buhari, yet citizens voted for the devil they didn’t know. Unbelievable.

The love story starts. Jonathan takes Nigerians for a ride by riding his luck one dismal year after another. He is so out of touch that he feels Nigerians still love him! He takes it for granted that he will win re-election despite his glaring failures as a leader. He agrees to a February 14th date for his re-election, perhaps thinking it will be another jolly chapter in what has become a one-sided love affair. What is more romantic than being re-elected on lover’s day?

But in the months leading to February 14, 2015, a rapid succession of events jolted him to reality. First, a formidable coalition of opposition parties was formed. A similar move broke down in 2011 but not in 2014. He must have wet his pants. Second, his antithesis was selected as his challenger.
Buhari has the image of a no-nonsense person who once stamped out corruption. Jonathan is synonymous with corruption. The choice between the two was a no-brainer. Nigerians decided for Buhari.

Third, Buhari picked Osinbajo. That was a masterstroke. Unfortunately, in Nigeria, ethnicity and religion still play roles in our politics. So picking a Southern Christian with an immaculate pedigree and plenty of following is genius. Fourth, the oil price slumped for the first time since Jonathan took power. The money he expected to have for the elections was suddenly not there anymore. Oil dropped 60% from June 2014 to January 2015; that would freak any president out! Fifth, the demoralizing effect of mass defections from Jonathan’s PDP to Buhari’s APC. It’s like losing the very base you rely on for support at a critical time.

The interplay of these five forces ensured the house of Buhari waxed stronger and the house of Jonathan waned weaker as February 14th approached. So much was the tide against him that February 14th, a date he probably chose, changed to FeBuhari 14th! A romantic idea turned sour.

MENE MENE TEKEL UPHARSIN

Mene Mene Tekel Upharsin is the famous handwriting the corrupt King Belshazzar saw on the wall. It foretells doom. “Mene” means “God has numbered your kingdom and finished it.” The repetition is for emphasis. “Tekel” means “you have been weighed in the balances and found wanting.” Sounds like a verdict on Jonathan. To be sure, Jonathan has seen the handwriting on the wall. He reads it in his woeful poll ratings. He sees it in the larger, more enthusiastic crowds at Buhari’s campaigns. He sees it every day in the endorsements Buhari gets from prominent Nigerians and from the CNNs and The Economists of this world. No one wants to interview him; everyone is for Buhari.

Jonathan’s End Game—A Seven Fold Attack

Up until now, I have simply rehashed what has already transpired. I have shown how Jonathan is weakening. I then concluded that the handwriting is on the wall.

But Jonathan won’t go quietly. Not without a fight, not without dragging Nigeria down with him. His overall strategy is to stay as president for as long as possible. The important thing to note as you read his game plan below is that Jonathan is not concerned about history or legacy. Great leaders worry about that and he is neither great nor a leader. If he were, he wouldn’t be losing a re-election bid. His concerns are more immediate, more myopic.
He just wants to rule for as long as possible by:

Postponing elections

Weakening the electoral commission

Promoting Boko Haram

Killing political opponents

Arming Niger Delta militants

Conducting a failed election

“Stepping aside” for the military


These tactics are not necessarily sequential. For instance, he is concurrently promoting Boko Haram and arming Niger Delta militants. They just represent the range of options available to him.
I now expand on these.



1. Postponing the Elections

I won’t dwell on this because he has already done it. Some people think he shifted the elections by six weeks so that the momentum around Buhari can die down. Wrong. Jonathan may be evil but he is not stupid. Six weeks is not enough time to erase the memory of six years of misrule. No, he is not postponing in hopes of stemming Buhari’s tide. The real reason is to gain time to carry out the plans below.


2. Weakening the Electoral Commission
If you cannot discredit the message, discredit the messenger. This is an old political trick. Nigerians want to see Jonathan leave Aso Rock. The legal and peaceful way to do this is through the ballot box. They need the electoral commission (INEC) to deliver the message. Jonathan is powerless to affect the message but is powerful enough to toy with the messenger. Watch how he will cause people to lose faith in the electoral commission. He will adopt several tactics but the overarching goal is to call the integrity of INEC into question. Once INEC is successfully discredited, he can do two things: Postpone the election even further to “restore faith in the electoral process” or challenge the results in the courts. The first option extends his stay for as long as he wants; the second legally upturns the people’s will. Either way he wins and Nigeria loses.

3. Promoting Boko Haram

I’ve written before that he is behind Boko Haram. He didn’t start Boko Haram but he saw the opportunity it presented and seized it. In the six weeks till the phantom date of March 28th, 2015, notice how Boko Haram’s attacks will increase in frequency and severity. You would think the increased insecurity would weaken his support. It won’t. It will only solidify calls for further postponement. People will start making statements like “You want to vote when souls are perishing?! Let’s stop Boko Haram first!” Except that Boko Haram won’t be stopped.

This is another dirty trick. In a democracy, elections cannot be held during times of national emergency. This is why, in the US, during World War II, Franklin D. Roosevelt was President for more than two terms. Clever politicians have used this to their advantage before. For instance, during Vladimir Putin’s first stint as Russian Prime Minister, he allowed the Chechnya war to endlessly drag on. Polls showed the more the war escalated, the greater the support he got from Russians to fight the rebels. Once he had a complete grip on Russian politics, the war magically disappeared. He started his first reign as an unloved and unwanted leader, he ended it as the most powerful man in Eastern Europe.

Make no mistake: Jonathan will milk the Boko Haram situation to the fullest. He has a wide number of tactics to choose from. For brevity, I will mention only three.

One, he can shape up the military and actually wipe out Boko Haram. This will win him praise he can parlay into massive electoral votes. Two, he can use a broad international coalition to fight Boko Haram. This will win him international acclaim—something he lacks—and financial aid. Well used, he can turn those into electoral victory. Three, and most likely, he can allow Boko Haram complete latitude. This will justify not having elections and if the
calls for elections get too loud, the entire Northeast will be disenfranchised. Buhari cannot win without the Northeastern vote. There are many more ways he can “use” Boko Haram and each results in the lengthening and strengthening of his reign.


4. Killing Political Opponents

Of course he will do this, but slowly, which is why he needs time. Again, there are many ways to skin this cow. For one, he can use Boko Haram so it becomes just another Boko Haram attack instead of the political assassination it is. Another tactic is to destroy the enemy’s will to wage war. Expect anti-corruption czars and the police to start going after APC’s major financial backers. If they are embroiled in personal battles over the way they accumulated money, they can’t be effective in prosecuting the public war over the fate of the country.

He can unleash religious leaders over some as well. We now know that many Christian leaders are paid by PDP. Expect to see pastors getting a “word from the lord” warning people to “steer clear of politics” or “tread very carefully.” They won’t tell you the lord is Jonathan! In a highly religious/superstitious culture like ours, this will sway some.
Understand: Victory in war is a product of available resources and will, i.e. victory = resources x will. Expect Jonathan to attack his enemy’s resources and destroy their will—physically and spiritually.

5. Arming Niger Delta militants

He has already done this. They get millions of dollars every month under an unprecedented – and ludicrous – Amnesty Deal. They are well equipped with military grade weapons and have unfettered access to the President. Life cannot be any better for these rascals. His next move will be to ensure they can successfully take on the Nigerian Army if push comes to shove. As Mao Tse-tung said, “Power lies in the barrel of the gun.” If Jonathan’s army is stronger than the national army, he remains in power. Case closed.

The effectiveness of this plan lies in its stealth. Unlike his other plans where he has to show his hand, this he can do completely under the table. No one knows how much artillery the militants have and they can procure much more without making headlines. With limitless funds, they can recruit and train by the thousands – all under the radar!

6. Conducting a Failed Election

Jonathan knows he cannot indefinitely postpone the elections. But by deploying the tactics above, he buys valuable time to strengthen himself and weaken the opposition. By the time the elections finally come, it will not be a true reflection of the masses’ choice but a result of dubious political machinations. He controls the judiciary so no hope of having the results overturned. If he sufficiently weakens the opposition, he may even go uncontested.

7. “Stepping aside” for the military

The tactics above will achieve varying degrees of success. If all else fails, he may decide to just hand power back to the military, taking us back to where we left off in 1999. He has already politicized and weakened the military so it will just be like handing over to his inner circle. This way, he retains power through the back door.

Why This Note?

If the scenarios above look bleak, it is because they are. But Jonathan is not invincible, no one is. There are tried and tested ways to counter each of the moves I mentioned above. I won’t publish those here lest he develop countermeasures. Jonathan can be checkmated, peacefully and legally. I write to alert Nigerians that we are at war. And also to let people know there will not be presidential elections on March 28th, 2015 – mark my words. I write so that Nigerians and friends of Nigeria can watch and act as appropriate. Let the electorate beware! We shall overcome.

Jonathan, like King Belshazzar, will go down. I just don’t want him taking down my country with him. That is why I write.

Jonathan will go down? Is the writer of that article God to decide the fate of a destined man like Jona?
I would rather see this as hatred or jealousy...No man can decide another man destiny except God almighty.

FOOL












YES FOOL, ANYBODY WHO SAYS WHAT YOU'VE WRITTEN IS WRONG IS A FOOL
You've perfectly outlined his wicked plans
Thumbs up




Sai Buhari

Im not a PDP supporter but accusing the President and Commander in Chief of premeditated murder/assassination is callous and irresponsible. Haba , lets voice displeasure on his policies etc but murder is a serious accusation. Moderators should manage these kind of posts na? Biko...I beg make una no scatter country!

God punish your generation for spewing this poo.People like you are the problem we have in this country.God damage your linenage.