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Investdata Daily Sentiment Report as of May 25th, 2021

NGX sell � MFI 46.22
Abc buy 0% volume index 5.33 MFI 61.85
Access buy 0% MFI 89.39
Chams buy � volume index 1.71 MFI 22.95
Chiplc buy � volume index 4.28 MFI 90.44
Courtville buy 0% MFI 62.03
Eterna buy � volume index 1.87 MFI 81.68
Fbnh buy � MFI 65.51
Fidelity buy � MFI 53.06
Honyflour buy 0% MFI 33.85
Jaiz buy 0% volume index 3.03 MFI 49.54
Jagold buy � MFI 27.70
Lvstk buy 0% MFI 43.10
Mansard buy � MFI 41.97
Mben buy 50% sell 50% volume index 1.06 MFI 56.01
Oando buy � MFI 28.29
Regalins buy � volume index 1.66 MFI 79.62
Royalex buy � volume index 1.24 MFI 88.71
Sovrenins buy � volume index 1.83 MFI 39.46
Sterling buy � volume index 1.67 MFI 43.30
Transcorp buy 0% MFI 48.52
Uacp buy 11% sell 89% volume index 9.41 MFI 48.66
Uacn buy 33% sell 67% MFI 73.75
Uba buy 0% MFI 42.08
Ucap buy � volume index 0.83 MFI 62.46
Unity buy 0% volume index 1.96 MFI 48.83
Wapco buy 0% MFI 40.67
Wapic buy 0% MFI 63.98
Wema buy 0% volume index 2.05 MFI 47.37
Zenith buy � MFI 78.38

Notore, Shareholders, And The Wait For Returns On Investment


Ohis Ohiwerei, the new managing director and chief executive of Notore Chemical Industries Plc sure has his work cut out for him.

It is now clear that one of his major tasks in the company of which he became Deputy Managing Director on September 17, 2018, wherefrom he replaced Onajite Okoloko, the founding Group Managing Director and CEO January 31, 2021, is ensuring it emerges intact from the mire that has clogged its wheel over the past 16 years.


Ohiwerei
A banker and past executive director at Diamond Bank (now part of Access Bank Plc from 2005 to 2010) and Guaranty Trust Bank (between October 2011 and 2015), Ohiwerei also has the task of disentangling Notore from a mountain of debt that has weighed it down, preventing the once-promising company from meeting its obligations to expectant stakeholders.

Although no one is sure what his key performance indicators are, it is not out of place to expect that as helmsman of a company incorporated on November 30, 2005 and having a dismal dividend payment record, Ohiwerei must quickly turn the tide and put smiles on the faces of stakeholders, especially investors who pooled $152m for its acquisition and equity investors who have hoped for dividend payment, or even capital appreciation on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX).

Poor RoI, Debt Overhang And Fresh Capital

Investdata Research records show that Notore Chemical whose shares were listed in August 2018, five years after the initially announced date of 2013, has only paid a miserly five kobo per share dividend in its history. Also, investors have also not enjoyed capital appreciation, with shares listed at N62.57 each, selling for N62.50 each as of Friday, May 14, 2021.

A January news report noted plans by Notore to raise fresh equity capital to pay off its huge debt, after its total borrowing soared from N79.9bn in 2019 to N108.3bn last year, due to new loans and Naira devaluation.

Of the N108bn loan, $38m (about N14.75b) is owed to African Export Import Bank at 12.7% interest rate repayable over a seven-year period, of which $5.1m is due within a year. There is also another $72.86m (N29.08bn) facility, out of which $5.85m is due this year – also at an interest rate of 12.7%.

These are besides the N16.79bn BOI-CBN loans obtained at concessionary rates of about 7%, as well as commercial bank loans totaling N44.46bn at 23% per annum, following which interest on loans is now the company’s biggest cost driver at N23.4bn in last year alone.

Promises Vs. Reality

Addressing members of the capital market community (investors, stockbrokers, regulators and the media), during the Facts behind its listing at the NGX three years ago, the management had announced in the short-term, approvals for a US$37m funding for a Turn Around Maintenance, purchase of critical spares, and acquisition/installation of back-up power. These, and the TAM billed for completion in the second quarter of 2019, were expected to ensure production reliability with the company projecting about N50bn in annual revenue target.


Okoloko
There was the plan to restore the plant’s daily production capacity to 1,500 metric tonnes, followed by an incremental production capacity and development of a 50 megawatts gas fired power plant. This was to enable Notore sell its excess power requirement to the national grid through the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc (NBET).

Among others, the gathering was also assured that because of its brown field status, Notore will save reasonable costs on capital expenditure by leveraging on the existing infrastructure and utilities

As part of the medium term strategy, the announced plans to dredge Notore’s privately owned jetty in 2019, increasing its berth capacity from 15,000mt to 25,000mt vessels. Another icing on the cake was the plan to leverage on Notore’s Free zone developer status to develop an industrial complex into a gas hub, making it an integrated logistics service provider in the oil and gas sector.

Another attraction for potential investors at the time was the tax reliefs for import duties and export activities (specifically for export-oriented businesses).


All of these were expected to result in robust top and bottom lines that would enable the company to pay taxes and the board proposes a dividend to the ever expectant shareholders, in addition to capital appreciation for investors, among others.

Early Signs

In its audited financials for the year ended September 30, 2018, the first, post-listing, its external auditors- PricewaterhouseCoopers, after a review of the numbers, drew attention to the N2.01bn net loss, as well as the N9.11bn group net current liabilities. It concluded “that a material uncertainty exists that may cast significant doubt on the group and company’s ability to continue as a going concern.”

Specifically, revenue for that year dropped by N9.069bn, or 25.27% from N35.893bn in the corresponding period of 2017, to N26.823bn; while the cost of sales reduced from N25.461bn to N17.217bn, representing a decline of N8.244bn, or 32.38%.


Notore Chemical Complex
A tax rebate of N1.616bn reduced the loss after tax to N2.013bn, compared with the N8.652bn net profit, which arose entirely from the N10.8bn rebate in 2017. The net profit translated to a loss per share of N1.25, as against previous year’s N5.37 earnings per share.

However, as part of efforts to improve working capital and return the group to profitability, the company had noted management’s restructuring of short term loans amounting to N30.14bn and US$59.97m into fixed long-term facilities of seven-year maturities and 12-month moratorium on principal repayments.

Shareholders’ Speak

In a telephone interview, Sir Sunny Nwosu, National Coordinator emeritus of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria (ISAN), and shareholder told Investdata News that Notore has not been fair to shareholders since becoming a publicly quoted company.


For him, “Notore has not done well by ensuring that there is Return on Investment for shareholders. Rather the management has been accumulating debts…. What is the reason for that? Are they not selling? Is it not fertilizer they are into again?

“There are only few fertilizer makers in this country, so what is the problem?

“We (shareholders) are not happy with them (Notore management)…

“And when they want to do their (annual) meetings, they take it to Bonny Island (Rivers State), and go with shareholders who protect them and will not ask critical questions.

“They make it (the meeting venue) like a military zone, such that if you are not one of those (friendly shareholders), you can’t access the meeting venue, a situation that is against the spirit of publicly quoted companies.

“We can understand now, that because of government regulations arising from the Coronavirus pandemic there is a restriction as per annual meetings, but before the outbreak, it was impossible to attend Notore annual meetings because of restrictions by the management.

“They put the meeting in a place where shareholders cannot easily go to and even if you go out of your way to attend, their security operatives will not allow you access. We have had such an experience. I had to call Jite (Okoloko, the immediate past chief executive on phone). But, I couldn’t reach him to tell him our people (gain access) to attend the meeting…”

Sir Nwosu hopes Ohiwerei is able to turn around the fortunes of the company. A yardstick to measure how well he has performed during his tour of duty, the shareholder rights advocate believes, is for the banker to ensure Notore makes enough revenue and profit “to pay dividend.”

He urged the new helmsman: “Be open to shareholders.”

These allegations were however debunked by a company source who craved anonymity, preferring our correspondent refer to past official communications (including notices of the two meetings so far held since its August 2018 listing) which were sent to Investdata News electronically on Tuesday.

For example, our source explained that Notore operates from Onne Complex and not Bonny as stated, assuring that at no time has any shareholder been denied access, or its AGMs militarized, stressing that Notore operating in line with the best of good corporate governance standards.


Shareholders at an annual general meeting
On the reported bid by the company to raise fresh capital, Sir Nwosu quips: “May be, those that they will coerce to buy the rights issue will be their friends who have in one way or another been benefitting from the company, whether it pays dividend or not.”

He challenged regulators to be more proactive and not turn attendance at annual general meetings into mere rituals, but take genuine feedbacks that can help them nip problems in the bud, rather than wait and become reactionary when the damage is done.

Also commenting, Alhaji Gbadebo Olatokunbo, shareholder activist, co-founder of the National Shareholders Solidarity Association, Nigeria’s premier shareholder rights group, founded in 1985, lamented the many companies on the long list of public companies listed on the Exchange not paying a dividend.


Olatokunbo
After a string of poor performance, he continued, these companies either get delisted voluntarily, or are pushed out by the exchange, with sanctions on the promoters of such ventures after defrauding investors.

In a response to a WhatsApp message by Investdata News, Olatokunbo wrote: “The list is very, very long. Many of them were shown the exit door by the Nigerian Stock Exchange (now Nigerian Exchange Limited), without any recourse or benefits to shareholders.

“Unfortunately, we (shareholders) relied on the approvals given by both Securities & Exchange Commission and the Nigerian Exchange for them to become quoted, before picking the stocks.

These companies, he continued, have not made investors happy over the years by non-payment of dividend, as investors suffer, while their boards and managements “collect their allowance and salaries, without spearing a thought for the plight of their shareholders, with no consequences in the form of warning or sanctions from any regulators.

On The Contrary

However, if there is one investor who has not lost hope in the company, it is Adebayo Adeleke, a shareholder activist and former General Secretary of ISAN.

Responding to any enquiry by Investdata News, Adeleke said he became a shareholder of Notore Chemicals “in January this year.”

It is not known whether his decision to add shares of Notore, a company he acknowledges, “has been passing through very turbulent times,” is a vote of confidence in the new CEO, given that the period coincided with Ohiwerei’s appointment as helmsman.

But Facts Don’t Lie

According to official information made available to Investdata News, Notore has since becoming a listed company had two AGMs, the first was on Tuesday, June 25, 2019, at the staff canteen of its industrial complex in Onne, Rivers State, wherein Ohewerei’s appointment as director was ratified.

The second, which held on August 17, 2020, at the company’s Lagos office on Victoria Island, was by proxy in line with the health advisory of the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) on physical distancing and restriction on mass gatherings, due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

As part of the special business at that meeting, the directors proposed an increase in authorized share capital from N1.0bn to N2.0bn by the creation of two billion new ordinary shares and amendment of the Memorandum and Articles of Association to reflect the increase, among others.

Shareholders at that meeting were expected to approve the company’s bid for fresh capital of up to N30bn “whether by way of a public offering, special placement, rights issue or any other method(s) or combination of methods as the board may deem fit, through the issuance of shares, convertible or nonconvertible securities, loan notes, bonds and/or any other instruments, whether as a standalone transaction or under a programme, and in such tranches and on such terms and conditions, including a book building or other process, as may be determined by the board,” subject to regulatory approval.

Keep Hope Alive

Giving his outlook for the rest of the financial year, in the half-year ended March 31, presented to the Nigerian Exchange Limited on April 30, 2021, Ohiwerei expressed confidence that Notore would “greatly exceed its 2020 FY production volumes, revenue, and operating cash flows.”

This, he said, follows the successful completion of the Turn Around Maintenance programme, which would result in significant improvement in plant reliability and sustained increase in production output up to nameplate design capacity of 500,000MT per annum.

His optimism is also based on the continued robust growth in Nigeria’s fertilizer demand, going by market dynamics, “considering the Federal Government’s strong and decisive policy focus on agriculture as one of the keys to unlock the diversification of the Nigerian economy.

“Our business has been faced with many challenges over the past years. However, Notore is now re-positioned for a great future with the completion of TAM. As we look to the future post-TAM, the next phase of Notore’s growth will be focused on diversification, optimization, and profitability,” Ohiwerei further assured.

Specifically, he said half-year revenues dropped to ₦5.25bn, from ₦13.12bn in Q2 2020, because the plant was shut down for the TAM, resulting in sparse production of Urea during the January-March quarter. Operating loss for the period, however improved to ₦0.82bn, from the previous ₦2.66bn, while finance cost of ₦8.45bn resulted in a Net Loss of ₦9.27bn for the period, compared to the previous ₦5.8bn loss. The TAM is expected to change the numbers going forward.

Going forward also, according to the GMD, “the company will continue to aggressively explore and work on various financial initiatives to further reduce finance cost, such as the restructuring of its capital structure to achieve an optimal mix of debt and equity.

“The projected cost savings from the restructuring is expected to boost the company’s profitability,” he stressed.

For Ohiwerei also, there is the continued robust growth in Nigeria’s fertilizer demand, based on market dynamics, “considering the Federal Government’s strong and decisive policy focus on agriculture as one of the keys to unlock the diversification of the Nigerian economy.

“Our business has been faced with many challenges over the past years. However, Notore is now re-positioned for a great future with the completion of TAM. As we look to the future post-TAM, the next phase of Notore’s growth will be focused on diversification, optimization, and profitability,” Ohiwerei further assured.

Last Line

Adeleke however believes in the capacity of Ohiwerei’s management team to successfully turnaround Notore’s fortune “in the next few quarters to come.”

Is Notore on the road to matching stakeholder expectations, especially returns on investment? Answer to this question is not blowing in the wind, and will come with the Q3 and full-year numbers.

However, there is a need for more stakeholder engagements, going forward, for a change in perception, a major driver of share pricing on any bourse, which remains a key component of capital appreciation.

Opening Pix: From left to right: Haruna Jalo-Waziri, Managing Director/CEO, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc; Oscar Onyema, Chief Executive Officer, The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE); General (Dr.) Yakubu Gowon, then Chairman, Notore Chemical Industries Plc, and the immediate past Group Chief Executive, Onajite Paul Okoloko, during the Facts Behind the Listing at the Exchange on Thursday, August 2, 2018 (READ MORE).

https://investdata.com.ng/notore-shareholders-and-the-wait-for-returns-on-investment/

The Impact of the just Concluded MPC Meeting on NGX

Ambrose Here Again,

I just posted The Impact of the just Concluded MPC Meeting on NGX that was held on Tuesday 25th May 2021. Although the monetary policy announced by the CBN governor did not really change. However, there a serious implication on your investment. So, if you are serious about getting the best out of your portfolio in 2021, login into the platform and watch the careful analysis immediately because it will help you to make the necessary decision and prepare for the earning season that is coming ahead.

However, you need to log in to the membership site before you can have access to it.


Kindly click on the below link now to login with your username and password

http://investdataonline.com/buy-sell-signal/

However, if you have not joined the buying and selling signal membership, kindly Call or Chat Admin on 08179547605, 08028164085 to indicate your interest in how to get started immediately

To Your Success
Investdata Consulting.

P.S. You need to act fast. You know the time to wait for no one.

OUTCOME OF THE 279TH MPC MEETING



The Committee at the end of its two days meeting decided by a unanimous vote to retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR).

In summary, the MPC voted to:

I. Retain the MPR at 11.5 percent;

II. Retain the asymmetric corridor of +100/-700 basis points around the MPR; 18 Classified as Confidential

III. Retain the CRR at 27.5 percent; and

IV. Retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30 percent.

Reversal Ahead, Amid Profit-Taking Slowdown, Selloffs, MPC Meeting Outcome


Market Update for May 24

Activities on the Nigerian Exchange on Monday was mixed and volatile, as the week opened on a negative note, thereby extending the previous week’s loss on mixed sentiments, amidst the divergence playing out even as the stronger earnings and weakening market. These indicate a better prospect for the equity market in the nearest future, considering the performance by companies a year ago and the numbers posted by them so far in 2021.

The better-than-expected earnings being witnessed are likely to continue in Q2 and Q3, influencing share prices positively due to the prevailing low Price to Earnings Ratio and the resultant high margin safety. Such expected improvements in corporate earnings will support higher dividend payouts and yields that will make the stock market an attractive window to hedge against inflation.

The seeming positive and weak economic data revealed slow recovery that call for well-articulated policies to boost economic recovery and activities that will drive national productivity and output.

Meanwhile, all eyes are on the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting to be announced Tuesday, with analysts expecting that rate will likely remain unchanged despite the deceptive slowdown in consumer price index for the month of April, and weak GDP growth of 0.51% in Q1 GDP 2021. This is given that the benchmark Monetary Policy Rate is currently disconnected from the rate environment, with yields on Treasury Bills and FGN bonds reflecting actual interest rate dynamics.

The current changing price pattern and trading environment call for change in investor perception and trading strategies to stay ahead of the market and be among the few who make money from equities’ trading as they up their games through regular learning. This is the advantage Investdata’s Comprehensive Stock Market trading videos and literature provides, as it covers fundamental and technical analyses that help you make effective and profitable trades.

Market players should, therefore, wait to confirm the new trend by focusing on the sectors with strong potential to grow their earnings performance and that have high upside price rally outlook. Here investors should target companies with earnings growth, quality and value that can match Investdata’s Earnings Gauges.

Monday’s trading opened on the upside and oscillated throughout the session on the strength of position and profit taking among the blue-chip stocks that pushed the NGX All-Share index to an intraday low of 38,287.53 basis points, from its highs of 38,382.35bps. Thereafter, it closed below the day’s opening level at 38,287.53bps.

Market technicals were weak and mixed, as volume traded was lower than the previous day in the midst of slight positive breadth and negative sentiment as revealed by Investdata’s Sentiments Report showing 100% ‘sell’ volume and 0%, watch position. Total transaction volume index stood at 53 points, just as the energy behind the day’s performance was relatively weak, as Money Flow Index looked up, reading 46.66pts, from the previous day’s 48.04pts, indicating that funds left the market.

Index and Market Caps

At the close of Monday’s trading the composite NGXASI shed 36.49bps, closing at 38,287.58bps from an opening figure of 38,324.07as representing a 0.10% drop, just as market capitalization fell by N19bn, closing at N19.96trillion, also representing a 0.10% in value loss.

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Monday’s downturn resulted from profit taking in Guaranty Trust Bank, UBA, Access Bank, ETI, Eterna, Wema Bank, Enamelware, AIICO, and Mutual Benefit, among others. This impacted negatively on Year-To-Date loss, increasing it to 4.92%, while the drop in market capitalization YTD increased to N1.63tr, representing a 6.30% drop below its opening value for the year.

Mixed Sector Indices

Performance indexes across the sectors were mixed, as the NGX Consumer Goods, Oil/Gas and Industrial goods closed 0.58%, 0.21% and 0.09% higher respectively, while NGX Insurance led the decliners after losing 0.75%, followed by Banking with 0.68% lower.

Market breadth turned slightly positive, as advancers outnumbered decliners in the ratio of 18:17; just as activities in volume and value terms were dropped by 19% and 44% respectively, as players exchanged to 141.15m shares worth N1.09bn, as against the previous day’s 174.3m units valued at N1.95bn. Trading was boosted by UACN Property, of which Custodian Investment announced approval by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) to acquire the stake of minority shareholders at 90 kobo per share (READ MORE). Other stocks that attracted investors’ attention during the session were FBNH, Chams, Fidelity Bank, and Zenith Bank.

Royal Exchange and Regency Insurance were the best performing stocks, gaining 9.68% and 8.82%, while closing at N0.68 and N0.37 per share respectively on market forces. On the flipside, ABC Transport and Enamelware lost 9.76% and 9.75% respectively, closing at N0.37 and N16.20 per share, on profit taking.

Market Outlook

We expect a reversal, despite the ongoing profit taking and selloffs to slow down, in the midst of mixed sentiment and expected outcome of MPC meeting in the face of rising infection rate of the novel coronavirus across the globe and the high yields in the fixed income market. We also expect the ongoing vaccination to support global and domestic economic recovery that will support the market and give direction. The banking sector and others remains attractive on the back of the prevailing low prices, despite the Q1 mixed numbers.

Also, the market just started a new downtrend as it trades below the 14 and 20-Day Moving Average. Note that the market may discount the political and insecurity challenges headlines, ahead of half-year earnings reports.

However, the pullbacks offer bargain hunters and income investors fresh opportunities to reposition in high dividend yields and undervalued stocks, while looking out for quarterly numbers that would support recovery. This is based on the fact that the rising fixed income yields may not be enough to scare all investors away from the equity market.

Again, the way to go is: Target dividend-paying stocks and fundamentally sound companies with growth prospects in 2021, looking the way of mispriced equities. This is especially given the rising oil prices that have so far supported the economy and equity market, despite the seeming improvement in the fixed income yield which had remained at negative real rate of return due to the subsisting high inflation.

However, the strong and faster recovery may continue, depending on market forces, going forward, as propelled by Q1 earnings reports and expected march full year audited accounts.

The NGX’s index action and indicators are heading in the same direction on a low traded volume and mixed sentiments in the midst of rising yield in bond and TB.

Also, the current undervalued state of the market offers investors opportunities to position for the short, medium and long-term, which is why investors should target fundamentally sound, and dividend-paying stocks for possible capital appreciation in the new year.

https://investdata.com.ng/reversal-ahead-amid-profit-taking-slowdown-selloffs-mpc-meeting-outcome/

Custodian Investment Gets SEC Nod To Acquire Minority Shares In UPDC


The board of Custodian Investment Plc, on Monday, informed stakeholders through the Nigerian Exchange Ltd that it has received approval from the nation’s Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) to make a Mandatory Takeover (MTO) Offer to minority shareholders of UACN Property Development Company Plc (UPDC).

The commission, in its letter dated May 18, 2021, according to a filing by Adeyinka Jafojo, its company secretary, Custodian Investment is offering to purchase up to 35,415,332 ordinary shares of UPDC Plc, at 90 kobo each.

Qualification date for the offer is May 14, 2021, following which shareholders whose names appear on the register of members as of that date are eligible to participate.

Recall that in November last year, directors of UAC of Nigeria, the oldest conglomerate, following transferred a total of 8,519,810,121 units of UPDC, its subsidiary for N5.964bn.

The volume represented the balance of 45.9% of the paid up capital of the company, even as the deal involved the sale of UACN’s 9,465,584,668 ordinary shares in UPDC, representing 51% stake to Custodian in two tranches beginning with 946,558,467 units, representing 5.10% of the issued share capital of UPDC on execution of binding transaction agreements.

It would be recalled also that UPDC had successfully completed a ₦16bn rights issue to recapitalize in April, enabling UAC transfer its equity interest pro-rata to shareholders in what was tagged UPDC Unbundling.

As part of the plan, the rights issue was also to unbundle the UPDC REIT to shareholders, with the proceeds used to reduce the company’s borrowing costs and significantly improve capital position.

Commenting on the change of plan, Aiyesimoju recalled that while these initiatives were in progress, the board of UAC received a credible offer from Custodian, with terms juicy enough of to compel a re-evaluation of the planned deconsolidation of UPDC.

The offer influenced “the board’s decision to proceed with the sale of a portion of UAC’s interest in UPDC to Custodian, effectively putting an end to the UPDC Unbundling.”

Commenting on the deal, Oshin had expressed excitement “about the possibilities arising from this partnership with UAC which provides multiple levers for value creation.

“The rationale for the transaction is that Custodian and UAC share the view that their ambitions for capturing opportunities in the real estate industry will be better achieved working in partnership.”

WORDS TO TRADE BY

"If you don't study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards."

―Peter Lynch

You wouldn't buy a car without looking at it and giving it a test drive, would you? Then why make a trade without knowing anything about the position you're entering?

You don't have to understand all the complicated charts and buzzwords that the talking heads toss around, but you do need to conduct your own research when looking at a potential trade.

Learn to use trend lines to find out if a bearish or bullish trend is developing. Figure out what people are saying about the particular stock, future, or option you're interested in. A little knowledge goes a long way when it comes to growing your wealth.

This is your hard-earned money. Don't treat it like a stack of poker chips at the blackjack table. Develop a strategy and learn everything you can before jumping into a trade!

Don't Miss This CHANCE: less than 72 hours left!!!

It is Ambrose Again so please listen...

I'm sorry about sending another post but I know that I will get a lot of complaints about people who missed the Huge discount on the Comprehensive Stock market Training Videos ➕ Certification.

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Dedicated to Your Financial Freedom
Ambrose Omordion

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ON STOCKS



Hello Investors and Traders,



I just posted Questions and Answers with Ambrose Omordion as of 22/05/2021.



Don't forget to share with me what you think about the Video.



Also, Click on subscribe button so that you can be among the first to get the latest update.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fa0Isngo1m4



Ambrose Omordion

NGX Index Slip, As Investors Position Ahead Upcoming MPC Meeting, Q2 Earnings

Market Update for the Week Ended May 17 and Outlook for May 24-28
It was a bearish week, as the Nigerian Exchange Limited reversed previous week’s gains on selloffs in highly capitalized stocks, made worse by profit taking, just as investors and traders repositioned their portfolios on the strength of Q1 numbers and economic data. This is also coming ahead of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee meeting, as well as month-end and the half-year earnings reporting season.

The downward trend came in the midst of high volatility, as the NGX All-Share index’s action broke down various support levels on a less than average traded volume as revealed by the volume pattern. The action and pattern exemplify the uncertain economic environment, given that one indicator can come out positive but deceptive, since it does not reflect overall economic realities.

Being the last trading week in the month of May, the market may oscillate, depending on the MPC meeting outcome.

But, technically, the market has given a sign of rebound on daily and weekly time frames, but is awaiting confirmation during Monday’s trading session.

The marginal drop in inflation rate is only reflected of a base effect, which in our view does not suggest in any way that inflationary pressure across the country is abating, notwithstanding the fact that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) attributes the slowdown in the April consumer price index of 18.12% from 18.17% in March to the dry season harvest.

In a state of stagflation, where economic growth is slow and inflation is high, despite the slight decline, members of the CBN MPC should not be in a hurry to hike rates amidst the nation’s rising insecurity level.

Also despite the equally 0.51%in marginal growth in 2021Q1 GDP, the MPC would likely holds rates on the back of this deceptive slowdown in inflation, given that the benchmark Monetary Policy Rate is currently disconnected from the rate environment, as with yields on treasuries and FGN bonds reflect the actual interest rate dynamics.

Movement Of NSEASI

The NGX All-Share Index opened the week lower after losing 0.44%, thereby halting Friday’s buying sentiments, a trend that was sustained on Tuesday when the composite index shed 0.72%. The selling sentiment persisted for the rest of the week as the benchmark index lost 1.48% by the midweek, just as the pullbacks continued on Thursday and Friday with the index shedding 0.30% and 0.01% respectively. These brought the week’s total loss to 2.93%, as against previous week’s 0.72% gain.

In all, the key performance index shed 1,157.82 basis points from the 39,481.89bps opening level, after touching intra-week low of 38,282.51bps, and high of 39,485.18bps, before closing the week at 38,324.07 on selloffs among high and medium cap stocks. During the period also, market capitalization lost N603bn, closing at N19.98tr, compared to the previous week’s N20.58tr, also representing a 2.93% depreciation in value.

Just as usual, low priced stocks and medium cap equities dominated the advancers table, as players continued to book profits and reposition their portfolios in expectation of stronger Q2 numbers. During the week also, the prices of Cadbury, Prestige Assurance and May & Baker were adjusted for the N0.18, N0.05 and N0.30 recommended by their directors respectively. Also, trading and price actions revealed the presence of sellers in four sectors that supported the bear-rampage.

The week recorded negative breadth as losers outpaced gainers in the ratio of 41:26 on selling pressure and relatively weak momentum, as Money Flow Index looked up to read 32.70bps, from the previous week’s 30.18 points

NSEASI WEEKLY CHART MOVEMENT

The NGX index action for the period under review caved in on selloffs and profit taking to form a double bottom on the weekly and daily charts in the midst of the selling sentiment and an ongoing portfolio repositioning on the strength of Q1 financials that beat market expectations, and high upside potentials. As economic data were below expectation

Going forward, all eyes are on MPC meeting and Q2 numbers in the face of rising fixed income yields. There is also an increased volatility rate in the midst of changing price patterns and trading environment, while discerning investors continue accumulating positions in undervalued and growth stocks.

Also, we note that the index’s candlestick formation on a weekly and daily charts are given signal or direction, so we have to wait for confirmation during Monday’s session, depending on market forces in the new week. We observe that volume traded was low, as the daily timeframe chart signals a top that needs confirmation also on Monday.

Nevertheless, we see the market reversing up, especially as investorsawait March year-end corporate earnings reports, just as the index continues trading below the 39,000 basis points.

The strong support level to watch out for on the NGX is within the 38,000bps and 38,282,51bps, and a breakdown of these levels will attract new positioning by traders and support stronger rebound. This is happening at a time crude oil is approaching the $70 per barrel level at the international market, as more economy are reopening to business activities while the Covid-19 vaccination is on a high gear at the global and domestic levels, despite few climates suffering the second wave hit of Covid-19. As positive economic data from US and China support oil prices.

However, we envisage a mixed outlook for the rest of Q2, while not ruling out profit booking and repositioning of portfolios especially after the market recorded a sharp uptrend in 2020.

Our expectation of a mixed outlook is hinged on such factors as the possible impact of corporate earnings, ongoing vaccination, mismatch of monetary and fiscal policies, implementation of the 2021 capital budget, as well as implications of oil prices oscillating on the nation’s revenue. We note too, the impact of the Money Flow Index and MACD are bearish on a weekly chart, but bullish on daily time frame.

Bearish Sectoral Indices

Performance indexes across the sectors were bearish, except for NGX Energy that closed 7.39% higher, while NGX Industrial goods led the decliners shedding 3.34%, followed by Banking, Insurance and Consumer Goods with 1.53%, 0.74% and 0.03% lower respectively.

The general market’s outlook remains mixed in the short and long-term, following which investors should take short and medium-term positions, while diversifying their portfolios along long-term trades to protect capital. This, they can do, by considering sectors with high upside potentials on the strength of earnings and policy influence.

Activities in volume and value terms were up as stockbrokers transacted 1.05 billion shares worth N11.54 billion, compared to the previous week’s 840.55 million units valued at N9.56 billion. Volume was driven by trades in Financial Services,Conglomerates and ICT sectors, particularly Zenith Bank, FBNH, Fidelity Bank,Etranzact and Transcorp.

The best performing stocks for the week were Eterna andPrestige Assurance after gaining 21.21% and 15.22% respectively, closing at N8.00 and N0.53 each on impressive Q1 numbers and market forces. On the other hand, C & I Leasing and Royal Exchange lost 18.80% and 18.42% respectively, at N4.06and N0.62per share on poor payout of 5kobo and profit booking

Market Outlook

We expect the mixed trend to continue as portfolio rebalancing, profit taking and outcome of Monday and Tuesday MPC meeting, just as the economic data were below expectation and forecast in the face of rising fixed income market yields. Also, any pullback at this point offers new entry opportunities for traders and investors to reposition in value and underpriced growth stocks, while companies with March year-end accounts release their unaudited and audited full-year numbers to support recovery in the new month. This is based on the fact that the rising fixed income yields may not be enough to scare all investors away from the equity market.

Again, the way to go is: Target dividend-paying stocks and fundamentally sound companies with growth prospects in 2021, looking the way of mispriced equities. This is especially given the oscillating oil prices that have so far supported the economy and equity market, despite the seeming improvement in the fixed income yield which had remained at negative real rate of return due to galloping inflation.

However, the strong and faster recovery may continue, depending on market forces, going forward, as propelled by expected Q1 earnings reports, until the next MPC meeting in July.

Also, the current undervalued state of the market offers investors opportunities to position for the short, medium and long-term, which is why investors should target fundamentally sound, and dividend-paying stocks for possible capital appreciation in the new year.

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https://investdata.com.ng/ngx-index-slip-as-investors-position-ahead-upcoming-mpc-meeting-q2-earnings/

BUY AND SELL SIGNAL


Hello Investors,

The, buy & sell signal for this week has been posted on the membership site for you. Pls, click on the long link for this week's download.

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1. Low Priced Stocks to Watch
2. Stocks to lead recovery
3. Defensive Stocks
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5. Stocks to Benefit from Corona Virus-Induced Economic downturn and government Intervention
20 Stocks building new bullish base


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Sentiment Report for the weekend May 14, 2021

NGX buy 96% sell 4% MFI 29.41
Abc buy � MFI 36.22
Access buy 78% sell 22% volume index 0.86 MFI 36.83
Afrprud buy 91% sell 9% MFI 23.95
Aiico buy � MFI 75.21
Caverton buy 0% MFI 46.76
Chams buy 0% MFI 34.43
Chiplc buy � volume index 2.89 MFI 63.32
Corner buy � MFI 36.14
Courtville buy 0% volume index 0.79 MFI 46.04
Cutix buy 31% sell 69% MFI 29.81
Dangcem buy � MFI 56.41
Dangsugar buy � MFI 15.32
Eterna buy � volume index 0.95 MFI 87.49
Fbnh buy 25% sell 75% MFI 59.95
Fcmb buy 92% sell 8% MFI 42.57
Fidelity buy � MFI 31.04
Fmn buy � MFI 42.07
Ftn buy � MFI 24.15
Glaxo buy 0% MFI 34.67
GT buy 67% sell 33% MFI 38.01
Honyflour buy 12% sell 88% MFI 28.78
Jaiz buy 0% MFI 22.71
Jagold buy 20% sell 80% MFI 34.68
Learn buy 0% MFI 46.30
Linkass buy 0% MFI 77.41
Lvstk buy 50% sell 50% MFI 41.76
Mansard buy 75% sell 25% MFI 11.05
Maybaker buy 0% MFI 41.49
Mben buy 50% sell 50% MFI 46.14
Mtnn buy 0% MFI 80.64
Nahco buy 83% sell 17% volume index 0.98 MFI 42.43
Neimeth buy 0% MFI 28.84
Nem buy � MFI 27.83
Oando buy 13% sell 87% MFI 56.63
Okomu buy 0% volume index 1.86 MFI 42.69
Presco buy � volume index 3.07 MFI 33.45
Regalins buy � MFI 57.23
Royalex buy � volume index 0.86 MFI 57.83
Sovrenins buy � MFI 58.87
Stanbic buy 56% sell 44% MFI 58.63
Sterling buy 0% MFI 26.86
Total buy � volume index 1.24 MFI 70.73
Transcorp buy 44% sell 56% MFI 33.47
Uacp buy � MFI 73.30
Uacn buy 50% sell 50% volume index 1.79 MFI 80.33
Uba buy 80% sell 20% MFI 26.52
Ubn buy 30% sell 70% MFI 50.78
Ucap buy � volume index 0.78 MFI 44.65
Unity buy � MFI 98.35
Vitafoam buy � MFI 37.39
Wapco buy 11% sell 89% MFI 28.42
Wapic buy 0% MFI 33.41
Wema buy 0% MFI 7.05
Zenith buy 83% sell 17% MFI 49.37

https://investdataltd..com/2021/05/sentiment-report-for-weekend-may-14-2021.html

WORDS TO TRADE BY

"In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable."

―Robert Arnott

To realize significant gains, you may have to step outside of your comfort zone at times.
Know the limits of your comfort zone and practice getting outside of it in small doses.
As much as you need to know the business, you also need to know yourself.
In this kind of self-analysis, there is no place for arrogance.
The best investing plan can turn out to be the worst if you don't have the fortitude to see it through.

Questions and Answers with Ambrose Omordion as of 15th May, 2021


Hello Investors and Traders,

I just posted Questions and Answers with Ambrose Omordion as of 15/05/2021.

Don't forget to share with me what you think about the Video.

Also, Click on subscribe button so that you can be among the first to get the latest update.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obRon3eWkv0


Ambrose Omordion

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WORDS TO TRADE BY

"One way to keep momentum going is to have constantly greater goals."

―Michael Korda

Don't stop here. Keep climbing. Continue to push ahead.
Even with the inevitable setbacks, you're on your way up!
The momentum is in your favor.

Start with the year, and work your way down to the trade.
Having better Thursdays every week will lead to more positive momentum!

Nothing can stop you if you keep expanding your goals and pushing for higher levels of success.

Reminder! Reminder!! Reminder!!!

Hello Investors and Traders,

Questions and Answers with Ambrose Omordion

will hold Saturday 15/05/2021. Time: 12:00noon

IT IS ABSOLUTELY FREE

Join Zoom Meeting
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/83115932047?pwd=VmNSOTliVDFxbVZOTHVXSWdid0U5Zz09

Or

Meeting ID: 831 1593 2047
Passcode: 650298

Ambrose Omordion

May the day delight and the moments
measure all the special joys for all of you to treasure.
May the year ahead be fruitful too,
for your home and family and especially for you.

Happy Eid-Al-Fitr To You!

Eid days are destined to celebrate the
achievements and the goals that make you glad.
The ideals you have faith in, the dream you like the best.

May Allah bless you and your loved ones with peace,
prosperity, and happiness.

Eid Mubarak!

In each shared laughter and smile; in each silent prayer answered; in each chance that comes your way. May Allah Almighty bless you a lot!

Eid Mubarak

May Allah bring you joy, happiness, peace and prosperity on this blessed occasion. Wishing you and your family on this Eid-Ul-Fitr Day 2021

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Before you get serious about trading, get serious about who you are and how you plan to manage your emotions.
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Sentiment Report for May 10, 2021

NGX buy 54% sell 46% volume index 1.08 MFI 64.61
Access buy � volume index 0.88 MFI 74.09
Fbnh buy 50% sell 50% MFI 46.86
Fcmb buy � volume index 1.43 MFI 76.99
Fidelity buy 83% sell 17% MFI 83.33
Fmn buy � volume index 2.57 MFI 0.00
Ftn buy � volume index 0.77 MFI 38.90
Glaxo buy 0% volume index 3.80 MFI 43.78
GT buy 67% sell 33% MFI 71.74
Honyflour buy � MFI 49.59
Jagold buy 0% volume index 1.02 MFI 24.04
Learn buy 0% volume index 2.28 MFI 21.76
Lvstk buy 80% sell 20% volume index 1.83 MFI 46.46
Mansard buy 17% sell 83% volume index 2.73 MFI 48.85
Mben buy � MFI 27.00
Nahco buy 0% volume index 1.96 MFI 39.70
Neimeth buy 0% volume index 4.63 MFI 29.70
Nem buy 80% sell 20% MFI 11.98
Oando buy 67% sell 33% volume index 2.33 MFI 37.54
Okomu buy 0% volume index 2.76 MFI 100.00
Regalins buy � volume index 1.38 MFI 53.57
Royalex buy � volume index 2.14 MFI 77.78
Stanbic buy 0% volume index 1.69 MFI 27.99
Sterling buy � volume index 1.42 MFI 43.25
Transcorp buy 56% sell 44% volume index 0.91 MFI 80.17
Uacn buy � MFI 56.18
Uba buy 75% sell 25% volume index 1.47 MFI 58.07
Ubn buy � MFI 73.77
Ucap buy 67% sell 33% volume index 3.58 MFI 69.66
Unity buy 0% volume index 3.86 MFI 54.46
Wapco buy 63% sell 37% MFI 48.50
Wapic buy 33% sell 67% volume index 0.74 MFI 82.93
Wema buy 33% sell 67% MFI 64.02
Zenith buy 43% sell 57% volume index 2.27 MFI 71.84

Investdata Daily Sentiment Report