₦airaland Forum

Hedonisco:
Well to clear some things up. Because aspects of this post sound quite arrogant and detached from reality.

To be clear, Atiku is no Buhari who was a bona fide King of the North with the famed 12 million organic votes that followed him across political party lines and election cycles. But even Buhari with his bloc northern 12 million votes needed more than 'marginal southern votes' to become president. What works for Atiku now is the resounding failure of Tinubu and the tendency of northern voters to vote along ethnic or religious lines. But that's okay.

It will be quite slick but mischievous and disingenuous to claim that Peter Obi has lost ground since the last election, or that Tinubu has "encroached into Obi's base in the NC, SS and SW". Is it by conscripting governors into the APC? If that is the case, why don't you say the same about the NW and NE where Tinubu has also snatched most of the governors into the APC? Atiku had some PDP governors in 2023 that helped him get 6.9m votes. Peter Obi had none, and yet got allocated a severely reduced but yet substantial 6.1m. Stop here and think about it.

7
The key point in your post is this: Obi's main weakness is that he will not instigate enough radicalism to protect his votes and raise hell, mainly because of his 'due process' personality, and also because of the lukewarm, cosmopolitan nature of his main voting demographic: SE, SS, Urban Lagos, Abuja, and the Christian North.

This is where Atiku and his northern base will be sorely needed. Atiku will certainly mobilize the already capable and inflammable core northern voting bloc to do the needful to run Tinubu out of town when he wins the election with the Atiku/Obi ticket and Tinubu wants to try rubbish.

There is nothing your masters up North will do if Tinubu win second term.

Svoboda:
The north believes this is Atikus time, as it is last chance saloon for him. This is whether you like it or not. An Atiku on the ballot would be Tinubus biggest headache. Tinubu should be wary of an Atiku without a Buhari on the horizon. Even some singing Tinubus mandate in the north are with Atiku. I fully agree that Obi/Kwankwaso stands no chance, no matter how tantalising that prospect might seem.

Another flawed analysis.
Those people standing on Tinubu mandate but codedly supporting Atiku,you think they have more to gain from Atiku than those people that are just waiting for Tinubu to finish the rest of his 4 years so they can take over from him?
Next time,tone down your optimism bias.

AMINDA:
Let's do a simple logical mathematics, Atiku got 7m votes in 2023 at a time when a substantial number of Northern electorates, thanks to Elrufai, agreed that power should head South. This led to 5.6m Northerners voting Tinubu. Fastforward to 2027, with Elrufai under persecution and the performance of Tinubu, a substantial amount of these 5.6m voters will no longer be voting Tinubu. It's a no-brainer that most will now vote Atiku. Atiku will only need marginal votes in the South to be home and dry if he clinches the ticket. In other words, Atiku has barely lost a voter who voted him in 2023 but even if he has in some Southern states like Akwa Ibom, Osun and Bayelsa, he has potentially gained more from Northerners who voted Tinubu in 2023.

In contrast, Tinubu has encroached into Obi's base in the NC, SS and SW. Even though he remains unpopular across board. It is clear that he has not gained enough to make up for his lost Northern votes because he has failed to consolidate the Southern electorates genuinely, except getting their elites to his side. Obi has also lost some ground if we are being honest but he remains the undisputed owner of the South if he's on the ballot but he may not pull enough numbers or find enough radicalism to protect his votes in the South. Plus, unlike in 2023, not many outside the SE will be inclined to go vote Obi again just to prove a point if nothing changes.

An Atiku/Obi ticket remains the strongest combination till date. There are also talks about the NDC courting Jonathan to throw his heart in the ring. This further complicates things for Obi and Tinubu.

Very flawed bias analysis,well,comfirmation bias and optimism bias are hallmarks of Politicians characters.So,I dont blame you.
You only considered pro-Tinubu factors in 2022 that has become Anti-Tinubu factors in 2027.You didnt considered Anti-Tinubu factors in 2022 that are now pro-Tinubu factors.No two Election have similar characters.
Next time be more holistic and objective in your analysis.

Chijeep:
Your headache bro

Chijeep:
I believe you'll need that help more

Grandiose delusion

Chijeep:
Read what you just type now again

If you are not intelligent enough to comprehend,talk,let us help you.

Chijeep:
Abeg rest. Tinubu also rode stationary bike

That was when he was at Peter OBI level as a struggling hungry presidential hopeful

Jerryblaq:
If e sure for tinubu make him run am

Tinubu has gone beyond all this childish political theatrics

All those mumu political theatrics that his supporters used to campagn against Atiku and the old establishment in 2022

YES...That is what Nigeria needs ,ability to play football,serve jollof rice,price groundnut and wash british airway jet toilet ...Those childish political theatrics his supporters campaigned against in 2022 while packaging him as one barrack Obama who doesnt do petty stuff for votes ..bloody hypochrites!


So,its no longer ability to organize a party and provide the neccesary leadership instead of prostituting from one party to the other to the extent of hijacking other people party and still be dragging it with the original owners

Kdon2:
They all know atiku will get the ticket already. They are just gang of haters of Tinubu not that they like atiku.

Not that they love the country

Blankstare:
You will be surprised Ameachi works for Tinubu

Even Peter OBI works for Tinubu.
This one no be surprise oo

Judek2:
Read this again, does this your post make sense to you

Go for a brain check

Isreal no even get shame

Na USA dey always fight the war for them.

happney65:
Stop Press!

APC urchins will leave the thread about the North and start attacking Obi

Just wait and see

They fear the North so much heeen

Never seen a set of people as timid as that in my life..

Who has always being running from contesting presidential primary election against the North since 1999

Please dont project you people Northophobia to the SW please.

Peter OBI will soon chicken out of contesting his rightful ticket with his master Atiku ...Guess who your lot will blame for that act of cowardice?TINUBU

Is any of the Northern18 APC governors,their commissioners,house of Assembly member,PAs etc part of the writers of this letter
Because as at yesterday,this was what comfirmed APC members in NW did:

https://punchng.com/north-west-apc-backs-tinubu/

Not all this street urchins with ugly looking letter head papee looking for something to eat.
This is the period when some hungry youth in the North always gather themsweves and name themselve NORTHERN SOMETHING SOMETHING to chop Atiku and other desperate Northern politicians money.

Its time to form my own APC NORTHERN NAIRALANDERS

Zionmdde:
Just because he mentioned tinubu right?
Assuming he didn't mention your God, you will be here talking about how right he was

So Amaechi too has slaves

reddingtonblack:
You know one Sure thing about " history & records" they are meant to be broken

just today i was watching sassuolo vs como and the commentator was talking about como defense as one of the best in europe this season he never finish ...Sassuolo scored that defense
It didnt end there ...sassuolo score 2 goals under 4mins against a como defense that was over rated

You still wanna tell me about Tinubu is a strategistt, he is jagaban, alpha & omega of world politics, he has 36 governors ogbeni records are meant to be broken, if only the opposition can just work as one Tinubu is a goner

For Nigerians to compare Tinubu to Abacha, bro the hate is real

Your last sentence shows that you just started following Nigeria politics in 2022

Sowore is attacking Tinubu who is his opponent now,NO PROBLEM!

Let him attack PETER OBI and his fellow criminals in the ADC structure of criminalities who are equally his opponents tommorrow,THEY WILL CLAIM HE IS WORKING FOR TINUBU


Sowore remains the true breath of fresh air,if the so called youth yarning for change knows what they are doing.

People have forgoten that ATIKU is no longer WAZIRI OF ADAMAWA.


Abi once a WAZIRI is always WAZIRI ni

Olugboye226:
I pray my Southern people wake up and smell the Northern agenda this people are flying about....

TINUBU is aware of everything.

ericmor:
When it comes to negativity, una go jump swiftly to call out the USA and china likes, but when it comes to their development and contribution to support their citizens, una go turn blind eyes. Is Nigeria channeling the loan to the right place? Instead they loot it

Na you dey turn blind eyes.
Must you be negative and manipulative with everything.
When the topic is about social welfare,bring the comparison up,this is a debt thread.

ColdHunter:
I would never understand why accountability is almost alien to the average Nigerian. Which sometimes explains why the politicians bend them over.

Someone that:

1. Used another person's image to forge an airline ticket.
2. Used same persons image on a billboard in the busiest road in Awka to advertise his product. Same product the reviewers have claimed is defrauding them.
3. Claimed on live video to have paid same person 500m to be his ambassador.

The victim of all these went to the police to make a report (as he lawfully should). But the aggressor declined all invitations at multiple attempts. He was eventually arr3sted and TAKEN TO COURT, where the presiding judge sent him to prison.

Yet, some are spinning it that the victim is the oppressor. Make it make sense.

Please before you quote me, make sure to approach with material facts, and not ifs and buts.

Beautiful analysis.
This is exactly what Atiku and co are doing in ADC.playing victim,spinning anti-goverment sentiment when they are actually the oppressor oppr3ssing thosse people the hijacked the party from.
Nigerians dont analyze matter base on merit but sentiments.

Zionmdde:
This one don craze ooo
So that's his own pitch

So he doesn't have ethnic group too

Na wa ooooo

Ikwerre candidate forming national candidate

As in
Me,I had known that Ameachi intelligence is overrated since the day he had to run around the stadium in port harcourt just to prove he is fit to be president.No wonder,wike doesnt respect him at all

Ibehchizzy:
same way you always desert the kidnapping and banditry threads
Infact insecurity threads…dont be an hypocrite in ur selective criticism

Why wouldnt he desert,you expect him to be jubilating over kidnapping and killing threads like you people and peter OBI do.
No matter how much you celebrate killingz going on in the country,Peter OBI highest achievement will remain a one time presidential aspirant because he will still not be on the ballot in 2027.

Irony1:
It is a lie you have never been a fan of Alex Otti stop lying about.

Shinedu,
We dont need your validation to like somebody

LeeSmart:
He has been sent to jail severely now my friend chinedu

Sabinus,
Then,people still saw him as an hero and oppressed.
If he goes to jail now,he will be considered a villain!

SmartPolician:
Sowore is a guy who jumps on everything to remain relevant

That is normal of an activist.
VDM is just like that too.

Nigerians and double standard

ufotunang:
.. that is his own style of doing business..

Davido style.
I am an FC
But one thing I like about Davido is hardworking spirit.David will release a music,he will market and promote it as if he is upcoming.He will force it down the throat of people,that is the reason he has the highest number of hits among the big 3

SageTravels:
People that said they are fighting oppressors are now oppressing others.

VDM reputation is being battered bit by bit.

He too will run into trouble one day and he would be sent to jail!

People will mock him to the latter