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On March 31, 2016, the CFETS RMB exchange rate index closed at 98.14, losing 1.50 percent from the end of February; the RMB exchange rate index based on the BIS basket and RMB exchange rate index based on the SDR basket closed at 99.08 and 97.61 respectively, losing 1.96% and losing 0.63% from the end of February. Generally, all three indices depreciated slightly from the end of February, mainly caused by subdued global economic recovery and seasonal factors leading to relatively weak trade data of China in February, US dollar’s depreciation against other currencies, and China’s CPI year-on-year (YoY) growth rebounding in last two months. Taking the price factor into consideration, RMB’s real effective exchange rate still showed moderate appreciation. Together, RMB exchange rate remained generally stable against a basket of currencies in March 2016.
The depreciation of RMB exchange rate indices mainly occurred in middle March. In early March, the CFETS RMB exchange rate index depreciated but to a limited extent. In middle March, the market down regulated FED's rate hike expectation, US dollar continued depreciating against other currencies. This together with the drop of China’s February YoY export growth, reduction in trade surplus, and rising YoY CPI growth contributed to the CFETS RMB exchange rate index’s short-term depreciation trend, from 98.82 on March 11 to the monthly low of 98.05 on March 18. After that, with the market absorbing the effects of trade and price data, the CFETS RMB exchange rate index tended to be stable along with some appreciations. The RMB exchange rate index based on the BIS basket and RMB exchange rate index based on the SDR basket showed similar trends as the CFETS RMB exchange rate index.
In March, the characteristics of “previous close + movements of a basket of currencies” in the RMB/USD central parity's forming mechanism became more outstanding. The term “previous close + movements of a basket of currencies” means that, the daily RMB/USD central parity quotes provided by the market makers are based on the previous close rate, directly adding the implied movements of RMB/USD bilateral exchange rate in order to keep RMB exchange rate stable against a basket of currencies in the past 24 hours. Market makers take into consideration not only the CFETS basket but also the BIS and SDR basket when submitting their daily central parity quotes. Moreover, when the fluctuation of the international market increases, considering all the three baskets would effectively play the role of a filter. It can be seen from daily trade data in March that, to maintain the stability of RMB exchange rate against a basket of currencies, the RMB/USD central parity depreciated from the previous close when US dollar appreciated to other currencies, and the other way round when US dollar depreciated to other currencies. This mechanism enhances the flexibility of RMB/USD bilateral exchange rate, while maintaining the stability of market expectation and RMB exchange rate relatively stable against a basket of currencies. The average daily amplitude of RMB/USD bilateral market exchange rate in March has increased from February and reached 0.17%, which is much higher than the amplitudes of CFETS RMB exchange rate index (0.11%), the RMB exchange rate index based on the BIS basket (0.14%), and the RMB exchange rate index based on the SDR basket (0.11%).

http://www.chrismarketnaija.com/p/pm-trade.html
Equidistant channels are arguably the most common technical structure found in the Forex market.
Not only that but they are, in my experience, one of the most lucrative to trade.
As a price action trader, the amount of profit you generate over the course of your career is dependent upon your ability to identify (and successfully trade) favorable technical patterns.
In other words, you need to know these various patterns like the back of your hand if you truly wish to succeed as a professional trader.
While the topic of equidistant channels is nothing new, there is a way of using them that is as advantageous as it is uncommon. Call it a “trick” if you will.
By the end of today’s lesson, you will know how to forecast a potential support or resistance area within a channel before the pattern has fully developed.
If that sounds too good to be true, it isn’t. I use the technique I’m about to show you every single week to assist in identifying levels of interest.
Let’s get going!

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Fed Hikes Rates for First Time Since 2006 - USD on Hold
- Federal Reserve raises rates for first time since June 2006.
- Fed 'dot plot' continues to see same 2016 year-end rate as in September 2015.
- Fed funds continue to only price in two rate hikes in 2016 www.chrismarkblogspot.com.ngetnaija.

In what was perhaps the most telegraphed policy change of the past decade, the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2006. Yet in what we considered to be a "dovish hike" (an oxymoron), the Fed chose to maintain its expected glide path of its future policy rates (the median 2016 year-end rate was unchanged)....www.chrismarkblogspot.com.ngetnaija.

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RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

From govt.nz Story is in PDF Format

Read Full Story at govt.nz

The Reserve Bank today reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.5 percent. Globally, economic growth is below average and inflation is low, despite highly stimulatory monetary conditions. Financial markets remain concerned about weaker growth in emerging economies, particularly in China. Markets are also focused on the expected tightening of policy in the United States and the prospect of an increasing divergence between monetary policies in the major economies. Growth in the New Zealand economy has softened over 2015, due mainly to lower terms of trade. Combined with increases in the labour supply from strong ... (full story)

HOW TO DETERMINE YOUR INCOME FLOW



THE INFLOW AND OUTFLOW AS REGARDED AS THE REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE IN RELATION TO BUSINESS OPERATION REFLECTED IN THE INCOME STATEMENT. THE FLOW OF INCOME CAN BE DETERMINED
YOU CAN CHOOSE HOW YOU WANT TO GENERATE YOUR INCOME AND THE STABILITY OF SUCH INCOME FLOW.



1 INVESTMENT CAN HELP YOU DETERMINE THE INCOME FLOW
2 SAVING CAN ALSO HELP YOU DETERMINE
3 DISCIPLINE: YOU MUST BE DISCIPLINED TO BUILD A GOOD INVESTMENT PLATFORM, CUTTING DOWN ON THE EXPENDITURES AND MAKING MORE OF INVESTMENTS FOR THE FUTURE .


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November retail sales figures from the Commerce Department will give a sense of whether consumer spending is gearing up for the holidays, a measure of economic strength ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 15-16 meeting. Also look for reports on the country’s small businesses, job churn, wholesale trade and how inflation is hitting producers.

1 Hope for the Holidays
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Consumer spending has been lackluster despite low gasoline prices. The most recent figures showed Americans saved most of their recent income gains, while consumption was nearly flat. Friday’s retail sales numbers from the Commerce Department will show whether Thanksgiving sales loosened purse strings, and the early University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading Friday will give retailers a clue on how December might shape up.
Churn Check
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Job growth has been steady, with a seasonally adjusted 211,000 jobs added in November and the unemployment rate hovering at 5%. Tuesday brings another nuance to the picture: how confident employees are feeling about the labor market. The job openings and labor turnover survey details how many Americans quit their jobs in November, a feature of labor market “churn” which suggests workers see better opportunities elsewhere. That figure was little changed in October, although job vacancies were near a 15-year high.
Inflation Insight
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Data on prices for imports and prices that producers receive for goods and services will shed some insight into whether inflation is creeping back into the economy. The strong dollar has sent import prices falling over the past four months. New data Thursday will show whether the trend held. In October, producer prices fell 0.4%, thanks to a strong dollar and cheap energy costs. Friday’s data will similarly show whether those effects are wearing thin or still weighing on inflation.
View From the Stockroom
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In September, business inventories rose but sales were flat, leading to the highest inventory-to-sales ratio since the recession. October data on business inventories, out Friday, will show whether businesses have been able to move any of that stock or if it’s just piling up. Wholesale trade data, out Wednesday, will give a sneak preview of what those ratios look like on the wholesalers’ side.
Small Business Speaks
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Tuesday morning, the release of a monthly survey of 1,400 small U.S. businesses will shed light on hiring, compensation and the general mood among the nation’s small businesses. Small-business hiring ground to a halt in October, although the economy as a whole added jobs at the fastest pace of the year that month.

TRADING THE GBP
CHRISMARKETNAIJA MARKET FORECAST
THE GBP
THE GBP IS TO FALL DOWN BUT ITS REAL DIRECTION IS BULLISH THOUGH I WILL COME TO 1.4XXXX BEFORE THE REVERSAL ON NEXT WEEK SO TODAY THERE IS GOING TO BE A RETURN THE SNAKE LEG SO TRADERS SHOULD MAKE GOOD USE OF THEIR TRADING TOOL AND OUR CLIENTS CAN CALL FOR ASSISTANCE
HOW TO END THE YEAR TRADE/INVESTMENT WELL
HOW TO END THE YEAR TRADE/INVESTMENT WELL ON THE USD
US Dollar Climbs as Fed Members Fuel December Hike Speculation
TheUSD is going strong for the year
I ADVICE TRADERS TO TAKE HEED ON THE USD PAIRS THIS FEW WEEKS A BIGGER MOVE IS COMING ON TUESDAY NEXT WEEK

Three Federal Reserve members took the stage on Friday with remarks on monetary policy and economic forecast. The first to speak was new Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker. He said that he would prefer the central bank to raise rates sooner rather than later with the Fed risking credibility should the liftoff be delayed. Repeating a popular sentiment, he suggested an earlier start means the Federal Reserve can tighten policy gradually. Going forward, he expects steady and modest US growth. Mr. Harker will not be a FOMC voter until 2017.
Up next was Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota. One of the more dovish members – and set to retire as of the end of this year – he said that the central bank should respond more to output and inflation gaps. Kocherlakota was adamant that the Federal Reserve should focus more on achieving its twin goals, otherwise known as the dual-mandate. He added that the Fed adhering to the Taylor rule slowed job creation and required the central bank to seek a slow recovery.
Last to speak was St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. He repeated that US labor markets are close to normal and that he favors beginning Fed policy normalization. Inflation net of the current oil-price shock is reasonably near 2 percent. Prudent policy suggests edging the policy rate and balance sheet toward more normal levels. Interestingly, Mr. Bullard said that maintaining a zero interest rate policy across the G-7 may lead to lower rates and inflation over time. This contrasts his prior view that a zero interest rate policy puts upward pressure on inflation. James Bullard will be a voting FOMC member next year.
The Dow Jones US Dollar Index climbed after Harker’s hawkish commentary. At the same time, US front-end government bond yields rallied. This suggests Fed rate hike expectations firmed amongst market participants. Fed Funds Futures are pricing in a 79 percent probability of a 0.25 percent increase in the effective rate at the December 16th monetary policy announcement.

STEPS AND REQUIREMENTS TO BECOMING A FOREX TRADER

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DEFINE YOUR PURPOSE:
DEFINE YOUR REASON FOR TRADING FOREX ITS IT BECAUSE YOU WANT TO BUY A CAR TOMORROW , THE MONEY YOU INTEND USING, IS IT A BORROWED MONEY ?AS A BEGINNER. MAKE IT PLAIN YOUR REASON.



SCALE AND WEIGH YOUR KNOWLEDGE:

SCALE AND WEIGH YOUR KNOWLEDGE OF THE MARKET WITH LANGUAGE AND BEHAVIOR OF THE MARKET, WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET HAVE YOU RECEIVE ANY GOOD TRAINING CONCERNING IT? OR ARE YOU RELAYING ON THOSE FOREX BROKER WHO WILL BE CALLING TO PUT YOU THROUGH, MIND YOU THEY ONLY ASSIST TO REGISTER ,VERIFY AND DEPOSIT INTO YOUR ACCOUNT WITH THEM AND THAT IS ALL .


BE ABLE TO ANALYSE :
MAKE SURE YOU ANALYSE THE MARKET AND TAKE TIME STUDYING THE MARKET MIND YOU THE MORE TIME YOU INVEST INTO IT STUDYING MT4 AND MARKET BEHAVIOR THE MORE GREEN PIP (SUCCESSFUL YOU BECOME)



MODULATE THE TIME FRAME:
MANY TRADERS DO PRETTY TRADING NUT END UP MAKING STUPID LOSS BECAUSE OF THE MANAGEMENT OF TIME FRAME MODULATION AND AT THE END MAKE STUPID LOSS
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How to Be Ready for the ECB
How to Be Ready for the ECB


- Tomorrow’s ECB meeting is looking to be one of the more significant European announcements in months, if not years. Expect heavy volatility tomorrow.

- The expectation for an increase in bond purchases may be mostly ‘baked-in’ to current price action in EUR/USD, but the bigger factors of volatility will likely come from modifications to the deposit rate, or changes in the structure of European QE.

- Traders can use sentiment to attempt to time EUR/USD, chrismarketnaija made real-time SSI completely free on our new, updated news .

The meeting that everyone around the world has been waiting for is now less than 24 hours away. The European Central Bank meets tomorrow for their December meeting after warning markets that the bank would re-examine their QE policy at this meeting. This was largely inferred to mean that the ECB was going to step up their stimulus program to offset persistent deflationary pressure that still persists despite being over a year deep into their current program. The Euro has been seeing massive selling across markets over the past six weeks, and we’re seeing an extension of that selling this morning just 24-hours ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting.




The current program purchases €60 Billion of bonds per month and most analysts expect this to increase tomorrow. That doesn’t really even seem to be up for debate at this point. But increasing QE isn’t as easy as simply typing in a larger number on the calculator every month, as the ECB has set a framework which they must operate within in an attempt to avoid losing money on Quantitative Easing, which was an important point, politically speaking, to get support from Northern European states to enable QE in the first place. The ECB will only buy bonds that have higher yields than what the ECB is paying to commercial banks that are depositors. The current ECB deposit rate is -.2%, so this means that any bond that’s yielding less than -.2% would not be applicable under the ECB’s QE program. So, those really attractive 2-year German Bunds that everybody in the world wants wouldn’t apply under the current form of the program because the yield on that paper is currently at -.434%. And it’s not just 2-year German Bunds sporting a negative yield of less than -.2%, as some estimates peg approximately 10-12% of the €5 Trillion trove of potential of bonds as carrying a sub -.2 yield.

So, it may make sense for the European Central Bank to cut their deposit rate to further open up the possibilities of bond purchases without having to carry too much risk in the ECB portfolio (like being forced to stuff the portfolio with Spanish, Italian or Portuguese debt merely because it’s some of the only debt that applies). This would increase the negative rate that the ECB is paid from commercial banks, and this would open up considerably more bonds to be applicable to this QE program while also further encouraging commercial banks to lend (by charging them more money with even more negative rates). But that impact would likely be short-lived, as the ECB ratcheting the deposit rate lower would likely see the secondary market continue to bid up that debt (bid up = higher prices = lower yields for bonds) to the point where yields decreased even further, which would essentially nullify the impact to QE of a lower deposit rate within a few months.

So, cutting the deposit rate may not be a panacea here. We also may see the ECB attempt to restructure their QE program by relaxing some of the rules that they had instituted when initially triggering in July of 2014. One possibility is cutting the deposit rate floor altogether. The Federal Reserve didn’t have a deposit rate floor during their multiple QE programs, and by setting the rate floor previously as the maximum yield that the bank would purchase bonds in the open market at, all that the ECB did was telegraph to the market where resistance would come in. As in – if the largest Central Bank in the world tells you that they’re buyers until yield hits -.2% (with the implication that they will continue to hold the position) – that is like the best support that an investor can get. If yields are .4% at the time, and the ECB announces that they’re buyers until yields move to -.2%, that means that buyers can, essentially, take a free ride on the ECB by front-running their expected future bond purchases.

So, scrapping this altogether may make sense, but this could raise the ire of certain countries within the Euro-bloc as the threat of QE becoming a costly endeavor could increase massively with the bank taking on all of that negative yield (which essentially paying a sovereign government for the right to deposit money with them). The ironic part of all of this is that the economies that do not need capital flows (like Germany with already negative yields), are the ones that will get the most. And the countries that do need capital (Spain, Italy, etc) won’t get as much.


So this may bring on another structural change to European QE in the form of shifting bond purchases away from Germany, or by the removal of the rule that mandates that the bank cannot purchase more than 1/3rdof any individual bond issue. These changes likely would face political pressure from a number of European member-states.




How to Trade This

First and foremost – I need to point out; you don’t have to trade this. Cash is a position too, and tomorrow will likely be volatile. This is one of the most important announcements for EUR/USD in months, if not years. Volatility will be likely. Direction will be uncertain, and what the ECB actually does will remain a mystery until Mr. Draghi takes the podium at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning (the statement is issued at 7:45 AM ET).

Given the moves that we’ve seen in EUR/USD since Mr. Draghi had originally announced the bank’s intentions at their October meeting, we can probably say that a good portion of the expectation for an increase in bond purchases is priced-in, at least to some degree, as EUR/USD has lost over 750 pips since that October 22nd meeting. As we had outlined just a month before that meeting, traders had the opportunity to sell EUR/USD before it put in a bearish break of the bear-flag that spent over 7 months developing. But a really strong NFP report just 24 hours after the ECB had pledged to re-examine QE put EUR/USD in full-on lurch mode, broke the bottom of the bear-flag, and has continued to see aggressive price action since.

But what likely isn’t priced-in, and what will likely provide the biggest potential for volatility tomorrow would be a decrease the deposit rate, or any significant structural changes to the current form of European QE, at least more so than a simple increase in monthly bond purchases.

But what you have to expect is the possibility for an event like we had in June of 2014. We discussed this prospect last week in the article, The ECB Fires a Warning Signal, but Will They Deliver in December. Most signs point to ‘yes,’ but it’s the delivery of ‘what’ that will shape upcoming price action in the Euro.

But with such a dire situation in the Euro-zone, there is really only one way to approach the Euro right now, and that is to look for ways to sell it. The fundamental situation for Europe and the technical situation for most European assets all point to the fact that continued pain is not yet being offset by current stimulus policies. And as Mr. Draghi has said, the European Central Bank is willing to do whatever it takes, or whatever it must to get this situation turned around.

So, longer-term trajectory on the Euro seems to be fairly clear right now; the only question at that point is the timing of the trade, and profit targets. The very obvious profit target level is parity, but with everyone in the world looking for the same figure, it would make sense to adjust one’s approach