₦airaland Forum

Soon everyone would understand why this "bear market" would be tagged a mid-cycle correction in a lengthened cycle by all and sundry in hindsight.
Soon everyone would understand why fading Alts now is fading the best opportunity since 2017 ( 2021 alts szn would be seen like a test run)
Soon everyone would finally understand why BTC, is essentially forming a bottom here and front running the Q4 crowd

Soon.. won't be a ~16 month wait to a new ATH ✍️

D

Beeron:
Update to BTC


The market is still weak at the moment, No activity of whale or smart money at all.

😂😂

Just give me that third drive to 55k USD already man.. maybe next week? Before monthly close..

2026 is a much more similar macro environment to 2019 than it is to 2022 or 2018..

You see the chart of bitcoin, ETH/BTC, OTHERS.D, and PMI all in a similar environment as 2019
In 2018 and 2022 all these charts were on a downtrend after moving the same way up, in 2026 what do you get? Bitcoin having a shallow bear market or a mid cycle correction with all these charts consolidating and coiling similar to 2019.

In my opinion we move way faster than what many cryptobros would expect trading back upwards towards the previous ATH by NOV/DEC with 2027 also being similar to 2020 but on a bigger scale..

Reason why I say next cycle left translates by a million miles and the 4 yr cycle narrative dies, because on a macro scale it screams mid cycle correction (the type that has to happen for the fun part to begin in "blow off" a typical 4 yr cycle)
On the other hand the correction is happening in a bear market year (whatever that means) so it's easy to be lost with the 4yr cycle narrative..

The price so far on BTC looks corrective to me, so I expect one final sweep of the lows, just the extreme I was talking about 55k BTC..
ETH/BTC on the weekly and monthly time frame looks really interesting, BTC moves but Eth and Alts would be the game changer for me..
BTCD stuck in a range of 58%- 62 for over how many months? Seems to me the grind upwards Is coming to a halt..

Weekly bear divergence on USDT.D

BTC ON HTF OVERSOLD LEVELS

For context it took 140 days for BTC to get to record HTF oversold levels, the fastest of all.

2022 took 210 days
2018, 350 days
2013, 413 days..

Buy those utility altcoins you've got. After the monster move in 2027 on alts.. and a dead cat bounce on BTC which would push alts a bit in 2028, the next move you'd get on alts on a significant magnitude would be in 2034/35..

Follow pros who know the game.
Some are paid, some post for free even on NL
Learn how liquidity works..
Go back in time, check what happend to the US stock market in 2022 a bear market year, come back to this moment, see what the stock market is doing right now? Why do you think the market would play out in a 4yr cycle when crypto space have been in a bear market while the SP is making new highs. 🤔

Itzlinda:
2028 is a halving year and there was never a cycle where we have brutal bear market in a halving year.

If It ain't broke don't fix it.
This your same thesis is what has recked so many people because they think this time is different and it turned out it isn't.

Stop all the mental gymnastics to predict what has no any historical rhyming.

Bitcoin tops in October 2025. Bear market usually last 1 year. We have between now and October to go lower below 59k or start a new bull market.

Don't over complicate

For the four year cyclist out there, the 4yr cycle as you know it would be heavily left translated..

You don't have to believe me, I'm not even bothered if you believe me or not as I don't even have the track record to be believed anyway..

But just make your own findings, believe nothing I say until you've come up with enough info..

They said BTC don't make a new ATH before halving (debunked)

They said Alt season comes up in the last year of a 4yr cycle (debunked)

I was checking back the chart on BTC dominance and the previous cycle was the first cycle where BTC dominance didn't crash leading to an alt season, we're now in the tail end of the bear market, and BTC dominance is still at range highs.. (maybe I'm wrong as always and this has happened before)

I

Itzlinda:
Just accept the fact you are wrong and move on and stop doing shalaye.

The market is doing exactly opposite of your prediction.

No one can predict market movement short term with accuracy.

Buying at 60k won't be a bad idea if your timeline isn't few months

My timeline is few months cause I expect a correction in 2028 leading to one of the longest bear markets lasting through 2029..

The extreme left translated nature of the next cycle is why I believe we'd have the longest bear market still coming - but first an expansion on the broader crypto market (going parabolic) and making new highs

I've come to the realisation that 80% of the people reading my post expect a normal bear market with the price of BTC going to 40k in October where they buy and wait for the four yr cycle to play out as it always does so no need to spam this thread with what I've said earlier.


Like I said, you'd understand better in the first half of 2027..


BTC was at 60k when I said the lows are in went to 82k (over 30% ⬆️) before a sweep of the low to 59k ish, you might argue we made a new low, while I see only a sweep/backtest of the previous lows..

Like I said before, the most extreme we could get is a sweep of 55k on BTC on weekly and that would also be with a wick Swiftly closing above 60k as the previous two (6th Feb and 4th June)..


And rightly, I don't really expect all my calls on the LTF to play out exactly 💯 as visualized..

But my HFT thesis still remains the same:
- No close below 60k on the weekly, and the bottom is already in..
- the next market cycle would be so left translated that you'd get to understand why I say the 4yr cycle is broken ( at least from what retail expects)
- ETH and Alts (even memes) would have such a run from late 2026 to early to mid 2027 that most retail would FOMO back at the top cause it's a 4yr cycle they believe.
- BTC won't make a new ATH in 2028 or 2029..
- the crash of 2029 in crypto and traditional stocks would be compared to the one of 1929

Itzlinda:
Crypto will humble you.

Bear market makes foolery of both bulls and bear.

No one knows shit.

October is still months away which is when bitcoin is weak.

The problem with Bitcoin would humble me talk is when I’m too lazy to learn, i get devoured by whale who have enough liquidity to decide markets, who have the means to formulate narratives to justify market direction - eg: 10/10 and its cascading effects and the 10am manipulation by Jane street… but I guess you must have forgotten about them now..

But I still stand by my thesis: and so far as there no daily close below 74.7k (yes I understand we wicked down lower to 74k) I see an upside move to 94-97k with alts doing multiple x (also not an alt season YET) before a sharp correction that would start and end in Q3…

It’s really not long enough though.. the remaining days of May and the month of June up to 15th leading to the next FOMC is my timeline for the Upside move..

So you can save this post and call me out if it doesn’t play out that way..

Q4/Q1 2027 🚀🚀🚀

Maybe one of these days, I'd write why i believe we'd have the biggest crash and longest crypto winter then after the Super cycle..
Also my thoughts on the market and why I believe we just went through a mid cycle correction - from Oct- Feb..


But first as long as we stay above 74.7k.. I still stick to the expansion phase of BTC to 92-96k.. with Alts doing a 50/100% run before another crash going into Q3.

daharry:
We're getting closer time wise and price wise to an expansion into the 90s, possibly a sweep to 98-104k on BTC chart..
With another round of dump to text 74-68k going into September/October..

Possibly the bottom for BTC was marked on the 6th of Feb 2026.

Now we're in the middle of the expansion, with BTC and also with alts catching a breather..
I expect this phase to last for ~30 days into early June after then we'd see a correction back to range lows, my initial thesis would have been a correction into 74-68k.. but I'm also not ruling out a shallower pullback into high 80?

Possibly this week we see a little sell the news event and a continuation upward next week..

I would expect the pullback to be done by JULY/AUGUST where we pump into October and the midterm going into next year with a bow off top ( similar to what gold and silver did from 2025 into early 2026)

Note: we're not seeing a new low lower than the one we got in Feb this year...
MAX PAIN IS TO THE UPSIDE

We're getting closer time wise and price wise to an expansion into the 90s, possibly a sweep to 98-104k on BTC chart..
With another round of dump to text 74-68k going into September/October..

Possibly the bottom for BTC was marked on the 6th of Feb 2026.

megawealth01:
Pls can you list the altcoins to buy down...

For the alt market I'd say, one or two solid plays is all it takes- no need to pack altcoins..

.Sui
.Curve

Robnectar:
Make I puff small too

You no talk quick.. kpo don finish 😩

Uptober:
So you're still expecting ETH to get to $8,500, whatever you're smoking must be very strong

Na my G give me Cana sha, you no go like smoke make you see wetin I Dy see? I'm in a mood to share cause man utd win today😂

Bluearrow:
I think u should stop with all these your hopium! What do u mean by we are in bear & not in bear?? January ending u posted here btcee will attain ATH in March, first week of February the market crashed! Were u expecting the crash to 60k in February? Btcee don't work with emotions, it is either bear or bull, so far we are in bear. Everyone expected btcee touching 80k minimum in March, yet it couldn't. Don't let this little pump deceive u, the momentum is weak.

Around November when ilegen.dd & grace.glory called it here btcee has slipped into Bear, alot of u guys kept arguing with clarity act. Look at the prices of all the coins today as compared to last year when ilege.ndd stated we are in bear market? Bear is expected to end by October, we are already in May, so what are u still saying? Na this hopium cause many people no take profit last year

Na you no take profit last year sha, no blame me..
At least I knew I took profit on Pepe a little on eth
I posted way back in January cause I thought we'd see a move to the upside from there and a typical 4yr cycle to be respected- boy I was so wrong and I paid for it in liquidations...
Now we are here, looking at PA now, do I still blindly follow the crowd or I learn from my mistakes and become a better trader/investor..

"Bear is expected to end in October" really?
Who said that?
Bro you Dy check charts at all? Not just BTC chart alone or BTC/USD CHART ALONE..
you don check BTC/XAU, you don check BTC/ETH, OTHERS/BTC?

This is not hopium, and this is not the time to be bearish rather..

And I mean exactly what I say by we are in a bear but not in a bear, but if you understood only a little what I write cause I explained my reasons up there, you'd counter me with facts and not vague statement..

Id repeat again..
From an Elliot wave perspective.. the recent correction we had was a wave 4 of a 5 wave move to the upside with wave 1 impulse starting from 15k..

From a 4year cycle perspective this is already a bear market (which we are done with) with a cycle top Q4 2025 if you want to do the calculations like the typical 4yr cyclists do..

And in all of these I could pull up the charts to show you both scenarios and how it points to the same conclusion.. Max pain is to the upside..

If you come up with a sound argument I'd gladly and willingly learn from you..
But if you want to shut me up cause I was wrong before or someone else says this, Your talk no reach anywhere sha, na my portfolio go tell me if I Dy right or wrong..

Itzlinda:
so you still think we are not in a bear market or you think this bear market is different?

Altcoins? I rather buy a land in a bush than buy an altcoins. highest i can invest in any alt is $100.

Even If I want to buy an alt how do I figure out which one to buy among more than 1 million of them?

na now I de even realized how foolish I was buying them in 2023. Because I faced same dilemma back then about what to buy. I went just make some research in youtube and x and bought what all these influencers are shilling

I should have figured out it is madness buying them since I there is no really way to evaluate them like stocks. it is all based on hype

I think we are technically in a bear market, and also we are not in a bear market YET..
Depending on the lense you view the market..
From a 4yr cycle perspective we can all say it's a bear market with a top at 126k in October (but what the 4yr cyclist fail to see was that BTC never had any real impulsive move to the upside, the only impulsive move I recall happened right before trump assumed office, with the top coming in when trump was sworn in.. the top in October was more of a slow grind to the upside. No real impulse.. why do market participants want a traditional bear market when we never had a traditional bull market? Do market give extreme price to the downside without there being first an extreme move to the upside? And vice versa?
From a classic Elliot wave perspective with a 5 wave move with wave 1 starting from the lows at 15k.. the recent correction to the downside from 126k was the 4th wave of classic Elliot wave movement with a wave 5 just starting ( I'd say we're in a micro wave 1 move of a macro wave 5 upside)

So either way you look at it the bear market is done or the mid cycle correction is done..


As for alts I'd say after 5 years of bleeding against BTC I expect your statement...
But I don't think a $160b asset class is dead.
Just buy alts BlackRock is buying and sell when everyone is uploading screenshots of their gain on SM

As for me I'm stacking a micro cap with less than 3million USD mcap and a Dev team who keeps breaking boundaries..

daharry:
Just do what saves you money, that's the most important before thinking about even making extras..
As for the leg down.. I don't see the market breaking the recent lows a per a leg down move cause the next leg down would be starting from higher prices anyway, I'm willing to stick my money here in alts especially cause I think these lows would not be visited until this run is done in early 27..
Would BTC comes back down to 40k? Yes I believe it will, but the timing is not right now and not in 6 months time..
In fact by that time we'd be starting a new leg higher or in the middle of a new leg that would take us to new highs..
Since I don't believe this is a new cycle, I'd sticks to 170k for BTC and 8.5 for ETH..

Something like this chart describes best what I think of the market visually..
Not my chart, but same idea

Itzlinda:
I won't. I will wait for another leg down. Opportunity will always present itself.

If there's anything in the last 5 years is managing risk and never to chase to pump.

It is better to lose 100% pump than to see your portfolio down 50-60%.
Warren buffet has has been sitting in cash for almost two years.

I have trippeled my investment in Ngx in just one year.

Bitcoin isn't even the best investment in the last 5 years.

If I don't see good entry, I wait for one or look somewhere else

Just do what saves you money, that's the most important before thinking about even making extras..
As for the leg down.. I don't see the market breaking the recent lows a per a leg down move cause the next leg down would be starting from higher prices anyway, I'm willing to stick my money here in alts especially cause I think these lows would not be visited until this run is done in early 27..
Would BTC comes back down to 40k? Yes I believe it will, but the timing is not right now and not in 6 months time..
In fact by that time we'd be starting a new leg higher or in the middle of a new leg that would take us to new highs..
Since I don't believe this is a new cycle, I'd sticks to 170k for BTC and 8.5 for ETH..

Itzlinda:
He said there will be weakness in early April. Pull out your chart and see if there's no pull back early April.

I'm not waiting for any particular price. I only buy if there's blood bath in the market.

He said if by October bitcoin isn't below 60k. He'll still buy

If by October bitcoin is closer to ATH, would you buy? That's the only question that needs to be answered...
If I want to chart btc it would be like this: we go up from here to when the new Fed Chair comes, then we distribute at 90-98k for a few weeks before the next leg down..
That leg down would be in sync with the 4yr cycle but I don't think we'd get a price lower than the one we get on Feb 6th hence why I think a higher low then at 74k or extreme 68k if it comes.. and time wise, I don't think we'd spend much time consolidating like we did here, hence why think we'd be trading closer to ATH and a blow off top in Q4 and early Q1 27

Itzlinda:
You are calling Ben Cowen shitfluncers? 😂

Dude is the only one that got it 90% right this cycle?
Tell me how many times your prediction has come to pass.

Lol..
Keep dreaming...
And I'm not here to be Nostradamus with predictions that must come to pass, I'm here to learn and refine my strategy..
And what I see generally for the Altcoin and BTC is to the upside and new ATH by Q4 to early 2027..
After a big bull market for tech stocks (BTC and alts)
I see a big bull market somewhere else, Energy and commodities..
What happens when energy becomes expensive? RECESSION..
BEN COWEN DID NOT GET 90% OF THE CYCLE RIGHT THOUGH..
and he said march would be bullish with a bearing April may, but we are in April with the price going above 78k with even higher upside to come between now and June..
I guess you're all waiting for 40 BTC in October Q4.. let's see how price action unfolds..

I still maintain a rally for BTC into 95k possibly 98k and 3k or 3.5k for ETH before any major pullback going into June/july..
From here.. alts would run till 2027 Feb-March when the recession everyone is waiting for this year would kick in, by then we’d all be screaming higher. With your shitfluncers like Ben Cowen calling it a new 4yr cycle and higher target for BTC..

The minimum I see for an expansion in BTC would be $90k USD June/July..
When we get there, I see a pullback into the low 74k area going into October..
The we get an explosion into new ATH IN Q4/Q1 2027..
AND THE WORST POSSIBLE BEAR MARKET STARTING FROM second half of 2027 and into 2028..

iLegendd:
You might end up being right. For me, I grouped some months into a box.

March, April, May and June are in one box. March is always the peak and June the bottom in all 3 previous cycles.

I was hoping for minimum of 97-100k in March, but it was only 76k. Someone once mentioned 76k in February as Match's top and I doubted it, but history ended up not favouring me in my last prediction, so that person won.

Since that box has 4 months and their oga, March, failed, I'm only expecting a tiny deviation from the norm, but not above the box at 97k or below it at 47k.

I'm more prepared for 49-47k at the moment. Any upward rally is a dead cat bounce to create hopium.

Also, using my 1 month hanging fruit, from Boxnalysis, I'll be longing heavily in May/June lows while expecting a retest of May/June lows in Nov/Dec of 2026 or even Jan/Feb of 2027. (A lower low).

I think the deviation from the norm started in 2023 when BTC made a New ATH before halving, and we'd see more deviation going further

Bluearrow:
Expansion into which 90k??
You must be a dreamer!
With what btcee did in March u should know btcee is not crossing 70k till the end of the year. Btcee barely crossed 74k in March which was supposed to be a mini bullish month. Any price u don't see in March, u are not seeing it till the end of the year! Don't deceive yourself.

Yup, I'm crazy..
And BTC would cross 90k before June..
Alts would have a relief rally which many would think is the alt season while smart investors would scale out closer to the highs..
For me, what I see is the spx going through a Marco ABC correction, I think wave A is done already, Wave B would sync with an end to the war or cease-fire/clarity act with BTC also running to 90k during the window, while Spx maybe 6800 or sweep of previous highs..
Then a wave C for Spx in June/July with a bottom in October..
For me, I think BTC has already completed it's major 5 wave move from the highs at 126k with wave 5 truncated..
Reason why I believe the bottom is in for BTC and we'd see new ATH THIS YEAR WITH A BLOW OFF IN 2027 AND A LEFT TRANSLATED BEAR MARKET..
OF COURSE IM CRAZY

iLegendd:
We are sure of blue circle, 49-47k in May/June, but it's 50/50 for the other two below 38-30k.

Or an expansion into 90? With a corrective ABC structure In MAY/JUNE leading to a dump just before or after the new Fed Chair into 74k base case or 55k worst case..

daharry:
There is an 80% chance that BTC has bottomed at USD60K.. a new ATH would be made, then a correction into the 4yr cycle low which would turn out to be a higher low ( from this low) then from there an expansion into 2027 with a left translated cycle on BTC, with a brutal bear market for alts, most would go extinct during this phase.

Save your targets of 30k 20k 40k BTC for then…
Save your targets of 700, 900 dollar ETH FOR THEN..

For alt season.. Look at the chart of others/BTC and made your conclusion..

Invalidation for this thesis would be a close below Feb low, not just wicks..
A close below Feb low would lead to more downside and possibly sub 40k targets..
Other than that, I believe the low is already in and the 4yr cycle low would be a higher low..
On the other hand if there is no expansion on BTC going into the summer(either a new ATH or SFP OF PREVIOUS HIGH), and instead BTC ranges into May-june then I’d invalidate and wait for a final flush in Sync with other majors..

What I’d like to see now is a bullish expansion and the Feb low to hold, going into April..

There is an 80% chance that BTC has bottomed at USD60K.. a new ATH would be made, then a correction into the 4yr cycle low which would turn out to be a higher low ( from this low) then from there an expansion into 2027 with a left translated cycle on BTC, with a brutal bear market for alts, most would go extinct during this phase.

Save your targets of 30k 20k 40k BTC for then…
Save your targets of 700, 900 dollar ETH FOR THEN..

For alt season.. Look at the chart of others/BTC and made your conclusion..

Analyscam50:
Don't you follow my posts?
This is sell year.
Btc will get to 135k this march.

Trust me I have seen it all

Can you stop commenting on my post if you don’t have anything reasonable to say?

Nobody is talking about the 4yr cycle low on crypto being a higher low, and this (60k) low being the true low, with an alts szn in 2026 nd 27, with the next halving event being front ran, BTC topping into halving( aka left translated cycle).. the most brutal bear ever seen after that..

If BTC pushes for the low 8Os right before or just after the FOMC, I expect a correction for the stock market - it’s already in a corrective move… target would be 6500, worst case 6100 for a hard reset, on the drop of the SPX, most would be calling for a new low on BTC while BTC would just be making a higher low instead -74k maybe 70k and a wick lower to high 60s..
After this Reset.. Liquidity would shift from a Risk off Regime to full Risk on (with smart Liquidity already positioned) that phase would correlate to the Alt season we have all been talking about and waiting for, this phase would be led by ETH, but as I always believe, ETH won’t do well if BTC doesn’t, so in this phase I expect BTC to make a new ATH!!
My mistake this cycle was not learning how smart money rotates and getting sucked on to the playbook of the 4 year cycle- hence getting over exposed to alt and and levrage.

I believe this is not a the 4yr cycle bottom for BTC as there would still be a drop after BTC makes a new high.. but the problem is, I believe this is a macro bottom for For BTC and BTC next low after making a new high would be at the 80s ( this high would coincide with the 4Y low) a lot of confusion, even for me initially and I don’t really expect you to buy my ideas
I’m just writing down my ideas and my ideas can be invalidated..

BTC short term play..
Pump to 80/84k
Shortly after Fed decision, SPX starts tanking target 6500-6100
BTC goes down with the stock market but forms a higher low at 74k instead of a lower low (early April)
Stock bottoms, BTC shoots up from then on..

The point where I see the price action diverging from 2022 should be on the this move, but most still fade it cause (dead cat bounce)
NFA

Bluearrow:
Honestly the -80% drawdown is over crowded. I made this comment below on the 13th of Feb

No need to talk much, we just have to wait and see how PA unfolds
Even this present cycle came with lots of anomalies, new highs before halving, longest consolidation ~9months, no true blow of top (yet)..
Now in an environment like this, should we expect the bear market to play out as most have scripted or we bottom here? We’re right on top of a base that was formed by BTC consolidating for ~9months after previous halving..