₦airaland Forum

Total

Pdp 12.7m
Apc.. 9m
Lp. 12.8m
Nnpp... 3M....


This are just permutations....
With respect to percentage so you can see so far it's a game between PdP and lp

Michelle70:
stop writing rubbish figures.
check how many votes each region normally produce.

What's the average south south produced in 2011,2015 and 2019

S.E....

If we are to go by 2015 and 2011 data...
When Jonathan was loved...
The same can be said of obi...
I believe he would swoop Jonathans result....
South East having not taste presidency before I think they will vote just they voted in 2011....

L.p should do good 70 to 80% here... If not more

Pdp should do 20% here Apc will be happy enough to come out with 5% here......


L.p 80 %
Pdp 15%
Apc 5%


Voting strength 4.5 million could be more.....

L.p 3.6m
Pdp 670k
Apc. 220k

South south...
Where I am now.....

It's a battle between PdP and labour party.....

S.S votes according to S.E with obi increasing popularity....

And with Apc muslim ticket....
They will be lucky to get up 15% in this region...


L.p should do good 50 to 60% here....

Pdp will take the rest...


Voting strength 6million....

L.P 60%.
APC 15%
PDP 35%.

PDP IN HOUSE ISSUES AND WIKE NOT WORKING FOR THEM GIVES PDP OUT HERE.....


L.P. 3.6m
Apc. 900k
Pdp. 2.1 m

South West....

We already know what's happening here....

Was suppose to be tinubu strong hold but events lately isn't playing good for him....

Lagos with the highest voting power is titling towards labour party.....

Tinubu should do good 45- 50% here.... That's if I'm not been cheerful enough....

Obi should do 30% here....

Pdp should do 20% here.....

Voting strength 6million


Apc. 3m
L.p 1.8M
Pdp 1.2m.

North Central...

Battles ground for all three major parties we know that.....

Pdp 30%
Lp. 40%
Apc. 30%

Giving labour the edge here cus of obi growing popularity in that region.....
He should win it though it will be very very slight margin between all three parties.....

Apc Muslim ticket is the turn off..
Herdsmen ravaging the region.....
Etc....


Voting strength 6Million


Lp 2.4
Apc 1.8
Pdp 1.8

Michelle70:
nevermind.
Its just february

North East Atiku home region.....

You can't tell me atiku won't pull up about 50 to 60% here....

We have kwankwanso surely he will get up to 20 to 15 % Here or less.....

Obi should get 10% here if not less what is left...

Apc can scope the remaining 25% here....

PDP 55%
APC 25%
LP. 10%
NNPP 15%,..

VOTING STRENGTH 5.5 MILLION COULD BE LESS OR MORE...

PDP. 3M
Apc. 1.3M
Lp. 550k
Nnpp. 800k

Michelle70:
nevermind.
Its just february

N.W....

You cant tell me kwankwanso can't get up to 25% of votes casted here....
Which 75% will be left....
We know Atiku should do about 40-45% here of not more....
Which leaves 35%, oboi should get 5 to 10% here...

Apc should be left with 30%, could be less but thats the best they can do here....


So let's assume voting strength is 9m could be more.....

Nnpp 2.2m
Pdp 4 m
Apc 2.7.
Lp 900k

Michelle70:
two northerns my foot.

SE was throwing their full support for PDP cos of Obi,
North was throwing full support for Buhari.

Atiku was not even declared as a brother there, he was seen as an outcast.
So it was definitely a vote between north and south.

Full support ke...
Obi wasn't as popular as he is now then....
The person you can say gained the east. Full support was Jonathan.....
Some States he got 90% of votes casted....
2011...
Check 2015 too..
Even though the number of votes he got reduced from the east but it was more than 3 million

Michelle70:
Go and check 2019 stats Oga
APC got 400k+ votes from SE while PDP got 1.69m votes.

Entire votes from the south was 9million while north recorded 17million.
NW alone has 8m+ total votes

Who was contesting in 2019..

It's was between two northerns.....

Voters aparthy in the east

Michelle70:
SS will also be shared between 3parties.

Forget Kwankwasor, he is playing bidding politics

You can't forget kwankwanso.....
Cus he is trying to position himself for the 2027 election....

And his results from 2023 will give him a bargaining chips for 2027....

If he misses it now he can kiss presidency good bye....

I no dey like analyse politics with emotions

N.W always votes for there own and they give block votes.....
Only Yaradua was able to defeat Buhari in the N.W no wonder he holds the record for winning the election with the highest number votes ever 24milion or so....

Even Obj didn't... Defeat Buhari


So for anyone to think that tinubu will inherit buhari 10 million northern votes that person is joking and doesn't what to accept reality

Michelle70:
NW voting strength is 8
NE voting strength is 4m, three people will share votes of at least 12m

while SE voting strength is 2m

Now do the maths

S.E 2m
Let's be realistic and work with data.....

2011 S.E recorded 4.7m votes for Jonathan....
Recorded 3.5m for atiku in 2019...
We know the reason for that voters aparthy.....
Obi should be looking to inherit those votes.......

S.S voting strength falls between 5.5 million to 6 million and I can tell you with. Full confidence S.S is between PdP And L.P Apc has no show here...

The best Apc can get here is about 10 %,....

Rivers state where I currently I'm obl should do a good 55%....
That should give you a clear direction where the election is going In other states

Michelle70:
Lets assume this skewed analysis stands.
Do u know this figures will make Obi loose?

Loosing NE and NW will automatically make u loose the election.
50% votes in NW alone will almost cancel out 90% in SS and SE combined.

Jonathan lost N.E and N.W and was declared president....

N.W voting strength 10m
You have atiku, tinubu, kwankwanso and obi aiming to get a slice of those vote.....

What peter obi needs to win this election...

85% SE
60% S.S.
30% S.W.
30% N.C
10% N.W
10% N.E

Is this realistic.....

This is not 2019 with two parties....

We have 4 parties serious contending is all regions....

New week....

Got four days left for the challenge....

5.9% left....

We might be going with the extension....

So this week's target is 1.1%

Starting balance...

590.

Closing balance

700

So this is how we are closing the week ...

London trade

Stop loss hit

Newyork trade

Take profit hit

Was able to scalp out 40 bucks

London trade

Stop loss was hit

Newyork trade

Take Profit hit

London trade

Second pics trade closed prematuredly....
So im out in class so I can focus

USA Holiday....

No trading today....

Till tomorrow

Was able to scalp out some profit....

London trade
Closed at entry.....

Rejoined

Stop loss was hit

New week ahead....
The deciding week....
Weekly Target 1.5%>

Starting balance 393
Intending closing balance 543....

Market do me well this week Sha...
No complain from my side

What a week....
Nfp just quiet

Closing balance

Tough day....
Since I got to my target...
Letting positions run went of window...
Could have had 1 % today....

Missed great trades cus of fear....

Well this is now we ended today.....

Might end the week this way ...

Morning guys....
Since weekly target was me....
I didn't trade this morning....
Just scalped...
22bucks...
Trying to see if I can do 2% this week

New York trade

Take Profit hit....

Weekly Target met