₦airaland Forum

Which Ajimobi? I thought he was in Coma?

Or is it some other people pressing the button behind the scene...


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Interesting

If you want to know on whose side the Presidency/Cabal is on, just wait to see who the security forces will back

Ajimobi/Oshiomole VS Gaidom/Obaseki...


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This is expected. The anti-Oshiomole camp can not be pro-Ajimobi

But did Oshiomole renege on any agreement with Abba Kyari on Obaseki? I remember that when this court case was turning against him, he went to see the late COS and the case died down.

If he was actually given the condition to make peace with Obaseki and he reneged, he really deserves what has come his way now and there might not be a way back.

As for Ajimobi, his own status on the NWC is even shaky if things go down this way. E get why but you need to have been following the story from the beginning to understand.



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Another big plot twist


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I wonder how politicians sleep at night with all this deceptions. Do they really think all of us do not think or they are just used to their own lies?

We know why he was disqualified so pls spare us the stories


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The game is getting more interesting. For Obaseki to win on another platform, he will need the security apparatus to be on his side on election day. If you are wondering why I mentioned security apparatus, just know that except you are strong like Wike, this is how elections are won and lost in Nigeria now. The question is if the Presidency will be willing to allow Obaseki use this security advantage on election day against their own APC. Grab your popcorn people


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The game is getting more interesting. For Obaseki to win on another platform, he will need the security apparatus to be on his side on election day. If you are wondering why I mentioned security apparatus, just know that except you are strong like Wike, this is how elections are won and lost in Nigeria now�. The question is if the Presidency will be willing to allow Obaseki use this security advantage on election day against their own APC. Grab your popcorn people


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seborrhic:
Change your moniker because what you just did is voodooism and not statistics,which is based on facts and projections based realistic figures.
First the total figure of 3964 or so is total number of registered voters and not those that collected PVCs.
Secondly even of the number of collected PVCs,who are thus the only people eligible to vote,at most 50% would turn out for reasons beyond any politician or voodoo statistician as you.
So taking best case scenarios,2000 PVCs were collected,though some are claiming its not even up to 1000.
50% of this gives at best 1000 voter turnout.
APC needs to get 70% of this,700 to win.
If its d figure of 1000 PVCs,this gives 500,meaning APC needs virtually all the votes to win.
Both scenarios are practically impossible for APC to meet.

The analysis I made was based on the total number of collected PVC (2584 as alleged) and the conditions stated.
Other factors such as voters turnout, vote buying, party agent betrayal, etc could tilt the result either in PDP or APC's favour...

Based on the conditions below, PDP will lose the rerun election. PDP needs to work against the conditions to win and APC needs to work towards the conditions to win.

- The top four parties working together for APC against PDP
- Last saturdays election's voting pattern replicating itself
- All the voters that collected PVCs in the 'rerun' units vote


DETAILED ANALYSIS
*PDP's result percentage (using the top five parties results) from last saturday
Osogbo - 28.4%
Ife South - 25.7%
Ife North - 30.4%
Orolu - 49.4%

*Total PVCs collected in the 'rerun' LGAs
Osogbo - 677
Ife South - 791
Ife North - 320
Orolu - 806

With all conditions above fulfilled, PDP will have 890 votes tomorrow and APC will have 1704 votes. Adding this to the results on ground, your guess is as good as mine!