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Operation Safe Corridor has been a lightning rod for national debate, and frankly, it is time we stopped shouting at each other and started analyzing the mechanics behind the policy. For many, the rehabilitation of terrorists feels like an insult to the memory of our fallen soldiers and a betrayal of the victims. For others, it is viewed as a pragmatic instrument of statecraft designed to fracture the enemy from within. As we grapple with this, we are forced to confront uncomfortable questions—questions that balance our rage with our national security strategy. The Great Debate: Deconstructing the Exit We have to move beyond the surface level. If we are to understand the conflict, we must weigh the contradictions: On Tactical Risk: Are we simply empowering terrorists to cycle back into the battlefield under the guise of repentance? On Strategic Breaking: Or is de-radicalization, however imperfect, the only mechanism available to permanently break the recruitment cycles that fuel the insurgency? On Domestic Law: Does the rehabilitation of these combatants constitute a failure of our domestic justice system, effectively granting impunity to those who have violated the sanctity of our homes? On International Obligations: Or does the state have an obligation under international humanitarian law—specifically in the context of non-international armed conflicts—to provide a formal "exit ramp" for combatants, thereby saving lives and preserving state legitimacy? On Infiltration: Is this "repentance" merely a tactical mask for long-term infiltration of our communities? On Sustainable Stability: Or is the provision of an exit ramp a necessary strategic investment—a way to diminish the adversary’s strength by drying up their source of manpower? The Fortunate Times: Analysis Beyond the Headlines At The Fortunate Times, we believe that real security is not built on slogans, but on understanding the architecture of conflict. We are not here to validate the government’s PR, nor are we here to fuel mindless anger. We are here to apply rigorous, objective scrutiny to the policies that define our national security. In our debut dossier, "The Ethics of the Exit: Can Counter-Terrorism Afford Revenge?", we provide an unbiased look at these contradictions. We break down the legal frameworks, the military strategy, and the harsh realities of the "rehabilitation" process. This is not a light read. It is an exploration for those who are interested in the how and the why of our situation, rather than just the what. You can read the full analysis here: https:// thefortunatetimes . .com/2026/05/twilight-horizon-ethics-of-exit-can .html (copy and paste into your browser, remove the spaces before searching) The question remains: Can a nation truly "engineer" peace if the mechanisms we use to do so are themselves viewed as a threat to our stability? The floor is open. Let’s look at the strategy, not just the emotions. The Fortunate Times is also available on: 1. Blogger as http:// thefortunatetimes . .com/ (Copy and paste into your browser and remove the spaces) 2. Facebook as: The Fortunate Times 3. X as: The Fortunate Times (@FortunateTimes1) Share your thoughts with us after reading our articles and Stay Fortunate!
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Good morning every one. I am a Nigerian student and I am strongly aligned with PBAT's RenewedHope2027 agenda. I am also very good in writing—analysis, propaganda, critiques. Anything writable! I'm so good at writing, I once tricked AI into believing I am a International Relations expert, a political scientist with vast knowledge or PG student. I'm based in Kaduna. I want to use my skills to lobby for PBAT this coming elections. Fellow progressives in the House, what's the roadmap? |
Pakute:One thing Nigerians do not understand is that for the purpose of succes, miltary operations are always shrouded in secrecy. During WW2, the US spent millions of dollars to conceal the date and target of the D-Day landings in what was considered one of the greatest military deceptions in history. The UK invented the lies of super carrot that made pilot's vision exceptional to conceal the existence of airborne radar. Georgy Zhukov himself who crushed the Nazis on the Eastern front maintained a highly non predictable strategy, avoiding headon blows with Germans in the places where they expected them, and even choosing active defense when most analysts would believe he was going for a head on decisive offensive. Thats the secret to victor. Minutes before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia kept denying she had such plans in mind. Truth is EXCEPT YOU ARE FIGHTING WITH A CLEAR UNDERDOG WITH NO TYPE OF ADVANTAGE(GEOGRAPHIC, NUMERICAL ETC) YOU DONT LET HIM KNOW YOU ARE COMING FOR HIM! From all perspectives, its clear Nigeria is preparing for a massive anti terror campaign in the North east and maybe north west with US support. What do you think the soldiers Tinubu recruited were for? Sleeping in the barracks? Why do you think NAF has reduced strikes on terrorisst for a while now? Simply to hit intel effective until the D-Day, strikes now may lead the terrorists to reshuffle their command to blind the Nigerian intelligence. Nigerians be patient, something like Operation Inherent Resolve is coming soon. Analysts should stop parroting it and helping terrorists, they should shut up least they make the terrorists ready. N.B: Ukraine's North east counteroffensive was a success while her south east counteroffensive was a catastrophic failure because the former was shrouded in secrecy even while it was raging while the latter was analyzed and parroted by western propagandists for months, so when they finally came the Ruskies gave them a warm welcome with Ka-52s, T-90s and Su-35s. Result? Overhyped NATO training and weapons were turned to piles of metal wreckage and roasted flesh. |
MrPOTUS:You didnt read the article. If you had read it, you wont embarass yourself the way you did now. So take time and read it. You are free to fact check. Most of what you wrote here is incorrect. Solemani was not a terrorist, he was the one who defeated IS in Syria! |
Flangelo12:Please do, dont forget to like and share. |
Freshandfitpod:Genocidal keh? Terrorist! Wetin i no go hear. Result of CIA brainwashing sha? Who did Iran commit genocide against? How come you know of this ghost genocide but ignorant of the culture purging by the baltic states against russophones? Why arent you aware of the Sebra and Shatila massacre? Have you ever heard the word 'Nakba'? Is that one not genocide on its own? Coming to terror let me ask you, do you know how many troops Iran and Hezebolah lost in the fight against the IS which was created by US expansionism? Stop absorbing propaganda hook line and sinker do some reserch, it doesnt hurt bro. Who exactluy is Iran terrorizing? |
heniford2:Between the two nations who is crying sef? |
brain54:You cant see those werey genocide supporters on this thread o. E go shock them say Almighty US fit collect this kain flogging from Iran. See sailors kn eeling down like primary 5 children. See multi million dollar drone don turn kondem iron . Make Trump try nonsense that his Lincoln carrier will just sink ![]() |
With US-Iran tensions on the rise, the mind casts back to past instances of confrontation between the two nations. Most astonishing in those events, Iran emerged victorious by inflicting catastrophic humiliation on the United States military despite the latter being a much m ore superior force. Stay tuned as w explore top five instances where Iran humiliated the United States military 1.2016 Capture Of US Navy sailors around Farsi Island In January 2016, a routine transit in the Persian Gulf turned into a high-stakes international crisis, and it all started with a shortcut. Ten U.S. Navy sailors—nine men and one woman—were aboard two Riverine Command Boats traveling from Kuwait to Bahrain. Behind schedule and eager to make up time, the crew deviated from their planned route, taking a shortcut that led them directly into the territorial waters of Iran’s Farsi Island. The Capture As they crossed the invisible line, luck ran out: one of the boats suffered a mechanical failure. While the crew was preoccupied with repairs, they were suddenly surrounded by four fast-attack boats from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). What happened next became a global media sensation: The Surrender: Faced with heavy weaponry and wanting to avoid sparking a war, the American commander ordered his team to surrender. The Imagery: Within hours, the world saw images of the sailors on their knees with their hands behind their heads—a sight that became a massive propaganda win for Iran and a source of deep embarrassment for the U.S. Navy. The Detention: The sailors were taken to a base on Farsi Island. During their 15-hour detention, they were interrogated and, in some cases, filmed apologizing for the incident and praising their treatment. The Diplomatic Sprint Behind the scenes, the timing couldn't have been worse. The incident occurred just hours before President Barack Obama’s final State of the Union address and mere days before the historic Iran Nuclear Deal was set to take effect. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif spent the night on the phone. Their established relationship is credited with preventing a military escalation. By the next morning, the sailors were released, sailing their own boats back into international waters. The Aftermath The investigation that followed was "damning," to say the least. It revealed a series of "litany of errors": The crew had ignored navigation protocols and failed to use paper charts. One sailor had resorted to using a navigation app on his phone to figure out where they were. Several officers and sailors were later disciplined or relieved of command for dereliction of duty and poor leadership. This came first as it was the biggest humiliation of the United States Navy since WW2. The images of the event still flood the Iranian media. With Ayatollah Khamenei claiming the victoy was gift from God and conferring military honours on the Iranian naval officers who were involved in the capture 2. Operation Matyr Soleimani(2020): An Evident Illustration of the Honey Badger calling the Lion's Bluff In January 2020, the world watched as the United States and Iran teetered on the edge of a full-scale war. This was the era of "Operation Martyr Soleimani"—a direct, state-on-state military confrontation that felt like a match dropped in a powder keg. The Trigger On January 3, a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone fired missiles at a convoy leaving Baghdad International Airport. The target: General Qasem Soleimani, the architect of Iran’s regional influence and leader of the elite Quds Force. To Iran, he was a national hero; to the U.S., he was a terrorist with "American blood on his hands." The Warning Anticipating a massive backlash, President Donald Trump didn't use back-channel diplomacy—he used Twitter. He issued a famously blunt warning to Tehran: "Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD." The mention of "cultural sites" sparked an immediate international outcry, as targeting such locations is generally considered a war crime under the Geneva Convention. Operation Martyr Soleimani Iran ignored the 52-site threat. On the night of January 8, exactly five days after the assassination, Iran launched Operation Martyr Soleimani. The Attack: Iran fired over a dozen ballistic missiles from its own territory directly at the Al-Asad Airbase in Iraq, which housed U.S. troops. It was the largest ballistic missile attack ever launched against Americans. The "Miracle" on the Ground: Thanks to advanced early warning systems (and some reports suggesting Iran gave the Iraqi government a heads-up that trickled down to the U.S.), nearly 2,000 soldiers scrambled into bunkers just minutes before impact. The Damage: While no Americans were killed in the initial blast—allowing both sides to de-escalate without further strikes—the Pentagon later revealed that 110 U.S. service members suffered traumatic brain injuries (TBI) from the massive shockwaves. The De-escalation The world held its breath for Trump’s promised "52-site" response. Instead, the US stepped back in a move that looked like a show of cowardice. No sites were hit, 110 American service men suffered permanent brain damage. Some argue that the hits were not enough to justify an American retaliation as no servicemen were killed but the sheer scale of the material losses not to talk of the brain injuries was enough to justify a disproportionate response going by America's existing foreign policy. The material toll of Operation Martyr Soleimani was significant, resulting in the destruction of one Black Hawk helicopter, damage to an MQ-1 drone, and the leveling of multiple aircraft hangars and a special forces compound. The base’s infrastructure was severely battered as ten large living quarters were incinerated and taxiways were cratered by the precision impact of over a dozen ballistic missiles. Beyond the millions of dollars in equipment and personal property lost, the most lasting impact was the "invisible" damage: 110 service members diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries caused by the massive overpressure of the 1,000-pound warheads. It was a clear middle finger from Khamenei to Trump and another significant humiliation suffered by the United States in the Middle East at the hands of an inferiior but formiable opponent. 3. 2019 Shootdown US Navy RQ-4A Global Hawk Drone In June 2019, the "shadow war" between the U.S. and Iran nearly erupted into a direct conflict when an Iranian surface-to-air missile disintegrated a $130 million U.S. Navy RQ-4A Global Hawk drone. The Mid-Air Strike The drone, a massive surveillance craft with a wingspan larger than a Boeing 737, was flying high over the Strait of Hormuz. Suddenly, it was locked onto and destroyed by a 3rd Khordad—an Iranian-made missile system. The two nations immediately locked horns over the coordinates: The U.S. Claim: The Pentagon insisted the drone was in international airspace, roughly 21 miles off the Iranian coast, and released flight maps to prove it. The Iranian Claim: Tehran argued the drone had "violated its red line" by entering Iranian territorial waters. To prove their point, they later displayed retrieved fragments of the drone's wreckage that they claimed were fished out of their own seas. The "10-Minute" Reversal In Washington, the war room was "cocked and loaded." President Trump approved retaliatory strikes against three Iranian sites—radar stations and missile batteries—and the military was ready to launch. However, in a dramatic, last-minute twist, Trump called off the strike just 10 minutes before the missiles were set to fly. He claimed he called off the strike because 'killing 150 people is not a proportionate response to the shoot down of a drone' However this statement was hilarious as he could have scaled down the attack to minimize human losses. He could have targeted Iranian military hardware after warnings to reduce losses but he didn't do any of this, his claims not only failed to hold water but rather only helped to further degrade the credibility of the US military in the region in the face of Iranian threats. In reality the US stepped down because she was not ready for a full scale war with Iran capable of spiking oil prices and killing thousands of US soldiers. Furthermore the US was shocked about the shootdown because the US believed Iran did not have the capacity to shoot down an aircraft that high in the atmosphere. The shoot down was a big humiliation to US Forces in the Middle East as ity showed Iran's rising military capacity and the lack of political will for successful military campaigns. It was a crystal clear case of Iranian showing her redlines and holding them. 4. 2011 Capture of US Stealth Drone In December 2011, the "impossible" happened: the CIA’s most secret stealth aircraft, the RQ-170 Sentinel, fell into the hands of the Iranian military—not in a thousand pieces, but largely intact. The Hijack Known as the "Beast of Kandahar" for its bat-wing shape, the RQ-170 was the pinnacle of U.S. stealth technology, designed to be invisible to radar while spying on nuclear facilities. While the U.S. initially claimed the drone had simply "malfunctioned" and crashed, Iran told a far more chilling story. According to Iranian engineers, they didn't just shoot it down; they electronically kidnapped it. They claimed to have: Jammed the drone's communication links with its U.S. operators. Spoofed its GPS coordinates, tricking the drone into thinking it was "home" at its base in Afghanistan. Landed the confused aircraft safely on an Iranian runway. The Display of Defiance A few days later, Iranian state TV broadcasted footage of the drone being inspected by military officials. To the horror of the Pentagon, the "Beast" appeared sitting on a pedestal with only minor damage to its wing. President Barack Obama eventually made a public request: "We’ve asked for it back. We’ll see how the Iranians respond." The response was a flat "No." Instead, Iran sent the U.S. a miniature, pink toy version of the drone as a mocking "gift." The Legacy of the "Beast" The capture was a massive intelligence disaster. Iran claimed they successfully cracked the drone's hard drives, revealing flight logs and mission data—including proof the drone had flown over Osama bin Laden’s compound before the 2011 raid. More importantly, Iran used the capture to leapfrog its own military technology. Within a few years, they unveiled the Shahed 171 Simorgh, a nearly identical, reverse-engineered copy of the Sentinel. Today, the DNA of that captured "Beast" lives on in the swarms of Iranian drones seen in modern conflicts around the globe. It was a demonstration of the highest level of electronic warfare. The most intriguing aspect however is how the Iranians were even able to see a drone that was 'stealth'. It was a clear case of humiliation for the United States. It was a pants down moment for the US, being caught red-handed in espionage a clear violation of international law and also being disgraced. It further put to scrutiny the effectiveness of US sanctions on Iran which was supposed to tie Iranian military down and prevent development. 5. 2025 Strikes on Al-Udeid Base In response to the US operation Midnight hammer which targeted Iranian nuclear sites although with minimal damage and zero human losses. Iran launched a ballistic missile on Al-Udeid airbase which is the largest US military installation in the Middle East. Just like the US strike, it was conducted to cause infrastructural damage rather than inflict casualties. In a stunning show of power, Iran hit a $15 million geodesic radar dome (Modernized Enterprise Terminal or MET). This undermined US claims of a 90% + interception and demonstrated Iranian precision capability. It was another case of Iran calling the US bluff on 'disproportionate response' as Trump had warned against a retaliation, vowing a 'disproportionate response' if one was launched. Further investigation by journalist proved that Trump's claims of obliterating the Iranian nuclear program was a piece of propaganda, though the Pentagon initially contradicted such findings, she later confirmed that the program was only set back by a few months rather than 'obliterated' as Trump has claimed. With US-Iran tensions on the rise again, do you think the US is in for another round of humiliation by Iran? (Attached: 1. Captured US sailors 2. Captured US stealth drone 3. Ruins of downed US drone(2019) 4. An Iranian missile)
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ViceGovernor:You are still missing the point. First of all i do know monotony erodes interest but I'm more certain that dogged ignorance erodes credibility alot! Having addressed that, straight to business. 1. Your entire argument in this response is built on misinformation, the US-Houthi ceasefire took effect on 6th May 2025. Clearly excluding Israel from its security. I remember telling you to make use of the internet to educate yourself. A simple Google search as posted below would prove that the ceasefire took effect on 6th May 2025. If you have evidence of your claims please present it. 2. The Houthis were NOT degraded. That's the mistake you guys make a lot, in your opinion, BOMBING=CAPITULATION. That does not work in asymmetric warfare. Do you know how many tonnes of bombs Israel used in Lebanon in 2006? Do you know how many tonnes of munitions Russia have used in Ukraine? Why hasn't it brought victory. A massive conflagration does not destroy an asymmetric opponent, rather it only gives him what he needs most-public sympathy. Now why do i say the Houthis were not degraded? a) They were able to deny the USAF air superiority in a stunning turn of tides. Shooting down MQ Reapers despite US SEAD operations. The war ended on 6th May, they knocked a reaper down 22nd April signifying a high state of combat effectiveness. A minimum of 7 reapers were shot down, based on confirmed information which is not easy to get, a more realistic estimate would be between 10-12. b) During the war they were able to maintain a steady tempo of attacks on international shipping. Even after the war with the US, the attacks continued until Israel ceased fire on Gaza. Currently, international shipping companies are still scared of the red sea and still prefer the Cape of Good Hope route despite the cost. c) After the war they were able to stage barrage of attacks on Israel itself and also shrug off the ensuing retaliation They accepted ceasefire because their goal was accomplished. That's a fact. Strikes on Hodeidah wont change anything about that. Attached below is a screen shot of attacks by the Houthis on shipping after the ceasefire with the US. In response to your question, they did NOT go into agreement quickly after the bombardment of their ports, it took several months to get them to sign a ceasefire and the ceasefire was not a capitulation. The right question should be: 'Why did the US drop her no negotiation policy' N.B: For your information, the US-Houthi ceasefire took effect on 6th May 2025 while the US brokered Israel-Hamas ceasefire took effect on 10th October stop confusing the two.
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ViceGovernor:O my goodness! This is the exact reason students fail exams! In each instance you used the Red Herring fallacy rather than directly answering my questions. Let me show you the marking scheme and how you failed woefully. 1. I simply asked you if the Houthis suddenly went mute or if there was an agreement between them and the US to which you wrongly replied that they suddenly went mute! Well a screenshot from google would answer you. Its astonishing that its not yet 2050 and AI is already more efficient than some human brains. 2. I asked you if the UNDER THE DEAL WITH THE HOITHIS the United states wasable tp secure safe shipping for Israel, to which you wrongly said yes based on non comprehensive facts. Well a screen shot from google would also give you an answer to that. Furthermore, the US deal with the Houthis was signed 6the May 2025, the Houthis sank the Magic Seas and Eternity C ships on July 6th and 9the respectively. There was also a direct Houthi attack on Eliat in September. So how on earth was the US able to secure shipping for Israel? 3. You seem to have a very poor knowledge of what warfare means. You think bombs have the ability to wipe out an ideology? Ask the US about the Taliban and the Viet Cong. Its the likes of you that sell the misconception that there's a silver bullet against guerrilla warfare. I won't argue much about this. But even Israel understands the dangers of fighting an enemy who idolizes martyrdom and thats why packed their loads and fled Lebanon in 2000 like a pack of scared puppies. Note they didnt retreat, they fled in one night abandon in their proxy militias. 4. Oh you don't know of the Saudi Houthi war? No wonder, you are just working with borrowed knowledge, you have no knowledge of how that region works. I won't stress myself to tell you that just educate yourself with Google, AI and Wikipedia.
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ViceGovernor:I was thinking a bulk of you were ignorant but now it seems you guys at being paid by US intelligence agencies to disseminate misinformation because I see no other reason why someone will be defending ignorance with doggedness. You pick two random events and you draw up a faulty deduction. Thats fallacy of false cause! I wore a green shirt today. I had an accident. So its the green shirt thats responsible for the accident. How true is given deduction? Just as true as your assertion above. Let me ask you a few questions: 1. Did the Houthis suddenly go mute or did the US abandon her no negotiation stance and negotiate with them? 2. Under the negotiation, was the United States able to security free shipping for Israel which was her aim of entering the war? 3. Are you aware that in Houthi ideology, death is martyrdom and is the best thing that can happen to a fights? 4. Are you aware the Houthis tookmore casualties in the war with US backed Saudi Arabia In conclusion we all know that wars are not won by inflicting casualties but rather achievement of Strategic objectives, otherwise we can body declare the Nazis the winners of the battle of normandy since they inflicted 2× more casualties on allied forces during the D-Day landing. The Houthis were able to deny Israeli shipping access to the Bab Al-mandar strait, bankrupting the port of Eliat and even held up the blockade till the ceasefire was signed. This a fact! |
INJESUSNAME:Your ignorance is baffling but much more bewildering is your determination to remain ignorant. Well nobody forced them to stop. They stopped because their main reason for the blockade was to pressure Israel to ceasefire on Gaza. Once the ceasefire was achieved, there was no more reason to continue the blockade. Its just like saying that the reason the US lifted sanctions on Venezuela was because Venezuela showed them pepper. Whereas it is because their mission have been accomplished. The Houthi blockade was an outstanding military success of the 21st century proving that an asymmetrical group could impose an access denial in a vital global chokepoint. What do you think stopped them? A series of raids on Hodeidah? Even if Hodeidah is occupied the blockade would continue because their military assets are spread across a tunnel network dug into mountains. That's the truth. Saudi Arabia had to leave those guys alone because of their resilience, imagine Saudis backed by the US could not defeat them and its Israel located 2000km away that would be able to do so. The moment the ceasefire in Gaza collapses, the Houthis would seal of the Bab Al-Mandar Strait and blockade Israel again. Now a question for you, the US intervened the protect Israel from the attacks and end the blockade, why did the US pull out of the war without ending the blockade? |
INJESUSNAME:Wow! Who muted Houthis? The same guys that had their southern port, Eliat officially bankrupt due to the Houthis blockade? You must be making a mistake, the Houthi blockade was so devastating that ships heading to israel had to encircle Africa than pass the shortest and cheapest route. The Houthis are highly asymmetric in strategy, their fire missiles from heavily fortified positions and theres nothing an F35 can do about it. I wont argue much with you but its clear Google AI is more intelligent than some folks
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ViceGovernor:Wow! Its been quite a long time since i popsted on nairaland but the magnitude of your ignorance and your courage to spew it out in words. Well last i checked but Israel and the US failed to solve the Houthi equatiuon. The US was humiliated enough to sign a deal with them that pulled the them out of the war but left Israel vulnerable. The houthis only left Israel when the ceasefire was announced though they have expressed interest to resume attacks anytime soon. Next time use google before embarassing your forefathers on the internet. |
I was offered admission on Friday through Jamb CAPS. I tried accepting but i was informed that you can only accept by 55019 codes. I tried to accept by writing my JAMB reg. No. space and ACCEPT. There has been no response and I've sent the message twice. I'm a bit confused. Please what can i do? |
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