₦airaland Forum

Streetinvestor2:
You did well.I thought something good could come out from this particular Tinubu
Not knowing the cur se strong for that name..lol

mikeapollo:
These things are really affecting the image of the country
How the shenanigans of a single man is destroying the integrity and credibility of the office of President in a country of over 20 million people.
Late Gani Fawehinmi was saying it for many years but we were too ignorant or bigoted to listen and understand him.
Now, some citizens have become too shameless, ignorant and corrupt to be on the side of integrity and credibility because of ethnic, political or religious biases.
Very shaming and embarrassing!

mikeapollo:
You dey see Cardi B for here again?
I hope it is not what I am thinking?

Stockpromoter:
Just see the scenario below

AGBA, LET US LOOK AT THE SIX PHASES OF AN INSURANCE BULL RUN. 📈

I think we may be looking at two different stages of the same market cycle. You are looking at the major sector bull run, possibly starting in December and extending into January/February. I am looking at the possibility of selected penny insurance stocks moving before the wider sector confirms its trend.

Here is how the six phases could unfold:

PHASE 1️⃣ — CATALYST AND EARLY POSITIONING

Recapitalisation changes the industry's capital structure and future potential. Investors begin identifying companies that could benefit from stronger capital, improved business capacity, ownership changes or a possible turnaround. Some may start positioning before the results fully reflect these changes.

PHASE 2️⃣ — SELECTED PENNY STOCKS MOVE FIRST

Money does not have to enter every insurance stock simultaneously. Traders may target Guinea Insurance, IEI or LASACO because of individual catalysts, attractive valuations or buying pressure. Where available supply is limited, relatively modest demand can trigger a sharp percentage move.

PHASE 3️⃣ — BIG-CAP CONFIRMATION

Custodian, NEM and Mansard may subsequently attract broader investor participation. If their prices rise on sustained volume, it strengthens the argument that the market is moving beyond isolated penny-stock speculation towards a wider insurance-sector rally.

PHASE 4️⃣ — ROTATION INTO OTHER INSURANCE STOCKS

As the leading stocks appreciate, traders may search for other insurance companies that have not moved as much. Capital can rotate into selected laggards, especially where there are credible company-specific catalysts. However, not every laggard will necessarily follow.

PHASE 5️⃣ — BROAD SECTOR PARTICIPATION

This is where we can confidently begin discussing a broader sector bull run: more insurance stocks advance together, trading activity expands, and improving financial results or corporate developments support the price action.

PHASE 6️⃣ — SPECULATIVE ACCELERATION

Once confidence spreads, penny stocks may record larger percentage gains than the big caps because of their lower prices and thinner order books. But the same characteristics can produce sharp reversals when buyers disappear.

NOW, HERE IS THE KEY POINT, AGBA.

Your argument that the big caps may lead the major, sustainable rally is reasonable. But that does not rule out selected penny stocks moving in Phase 1 or Phase 2 before the wider sector rally develops.

I am not claiming that every insurance stock will fly next week. I am saying that some individual stocks can move ahead of sector-wide confirmation, and we should assess them by their own catalysts, volume, demand and price structure.

If Guinea, IEI or LASACO starts moving while the big caps are still consolidating, that could be an early, stock-specific move—not necessarily the full insurance bull run.

If the big caps subsequently strengthen and participation spreads, that would support the broader rotation thesis.

The phases are a framework, not a guaranteed timetable. They can overlap, happen in a different order or fail to develop.

So perhaps we are not disagreeing about whether insurance stocks can rally. We are debating which phase comes first and when the wider sector confirms the move. Let us watch the evidence together. 📊

mikeapollo:
Nigeria Has The Largest Number of People Living Without Electricity- World Bank


https://www.nairaland.com/8769549/nigeria-largest-number-people-living

megawealth01:
One of the best places to invest is the POWER sector...

I don't know if it has been fully privatized?

TRANSPOWER PLC on my mind

RodgersAkpafu:
More like Nigerians are destined to cry under wicked leadership.

The candidates will all be fine, including the incumbent pampers wearing oju yobo with glasses

Its the half witted masses, who take this as a game that their futures are being mortgaged

Continue the tribalistic game 👏 👏 👏
Its your kids that will pay dearly for the folly, not mine

ghm:
Thanks for the remark.

You actually brought another dimension of concern. I had that before, and my response is below. I initially thought I would go in heavily, but decided to do due diligence instead. Please note that despite my response, I am still learning, and I like the discourse.

On the "$47 billion for just a refinery" point:
You're right that standalone refiners rarely command such valuations. Turkey's Tupras – with comparable combined capacity across four refineries – is valued at about $12 billion . US-listed HF Sinclair, with roughly 678,000 bpd capacity, sits around $16 billion .

So why is Dangote different? Because it's not being priced as a standalone refiner.

1. Capacity is doubling, not static
The refinery currently operates at 700,000 bpd – surpassing its 650,000 bpd nameplate capacity after a 72-hour performance test with UOP in February 2026 . A second 700,000 bpd train is already under construction, targeting mechanical completion by end-2028 and bringing total capacity to 1.4 million bpd. DR is also more efficient than other refineries in that it converts approximately 92% of every barrel into clean transport fuels, with cash operating costs below $3 per barrel – among the lowest-cost refiners globally At that scale, it would surpass India's Jamnagar as the world's largest single-site refinery.

The IPO proceeds are earmarked for this expansion, which is estimated at $12.4 billion – about 38% below what Phase 1 cost, because it replicates existing configuration on the same site .

2. The financials already support the valuation
In H1 2026 alone, the refinery posted:

Revenue: N19.47 trillion ($13.91 billion)
Profit after tax: N2.55 trillion ($1.82 billion)
EBITDA: $2.60 billion – nearly five times its full-year 2025 figure

Gross refining margin rose to $24.50 per barrel, up from $13.70 in 2025 and $10.70 in 2024 . Average utilisation hit 83.6% .

3. Analysts have independently validated the valuation
Two equity research reports published on September 7, 2026:

Chapel Hill Denham valued the refinery at approximately $62.5 billion
Renaissance Capital valued it at $53.89–$62.09 billion

Both modelled the Phase 2 expansion. Chapel Hill Denham described it as "relatively de-risked" because the second train replicates existing infrastructure with engineering and licensing already in place .

4. On the "100% return requires $100bn valuation" concern
You're right that doubling the share price from N525 would require a valuation approaching $100 billion. But capital appreciation is not the only return path. The refinery's cash generation supports dividends, and the expansion case provides a pathway to higher earnings.

At N525, the implied P/E ratio is roughly 30 based on estimated earnings of N14 per share . That compares favourably with Aradel (above 20) and Seplat (above 15) on the NGX .

5. What's the risk?
Renaissance Capital flagged that each year of delay in Phase 2 could "materially reduce the refinery's value" . The base case assumes commissioning by 2030, versus management's 2028 target .

Other risks: refining-cycle volatility, crude supply constraints, FX movements, and operational disruptions .

Bottom line:
The valuation isn't crazy for a standalone refinery – because it's not being priced as one. It's being priced as a platform that will double capacity, integrate petrochemicals, and reshape Atlantic basin product flows .

Whether that justifies $49 billion today depends on execution. The analysts covering it seem to think the expansion is achievable. But they're pricing in execution, not certainty.

I hope this adds to the discourse.

Raider76:
Can't find it on the App Store.

londonerr:
Ok..... What do you think the fair valuation should be... relative to similar firms? I see India.....are they doing kpo fire?

londonerr:
It is not just a refinery....there are other things bundled into it if I recollect

ghm:
To confess, I actually took your post as a personal concern and the reason for not letting it pass. Not letting it pass is not necessarily against you but to help those who are looking for genuine balanced information like myself.

Your post is an emotionally charged rant disguised as financial critique. It demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of capital markets, makes unsupported claims about Dangote's character, and relies on logical fallacies rather than evidence.

First, the criticism of the share volume ("124 billion units is madness" is baseless—share count alone is meaningless without context of pricing, market capitalization, and the company's capital structure. Many successful companies issue large volumes to ensure liquidity and broad retail participation. The speculation about a future public offering ("PO" is just that—speculation—and not a valid basis for criticism.

Second, the comparison to Space X is flawed because Space X is an american company listed in America with it's capitalization and sturcture, making any comparison of share structure irrelevant and misleading.

Third, the accusation of greed for retaining 84% ownership ignores that founder-led IPOs typically retain majority control to maintain strategic direction and governance stability. This is standard practice globally, not evidence of bad faith.

Fourth, the dismissal of Dangote's "national asset" statement misrepresents his point—calling the refinery a national asset refers to its strategic economic importance, not its ownership structure. There is no contradiction between private ownership and national significance.

Fifth, the claim that Dangote "just needs Nigerians to make his voice loud" is an unsubstantiated accusation with no evidence. It assumes bad faith and political manipulation without proof.

Sixth, the demand for 50/50 ownership is arbitrary and unrealistic. It disregards the billions of dollars Dangote and his partners invested, the lenders who took risk, and the basic principle that equity belongs to those who funded and built the project. No one who did not contribute capital has a legitimate claim to dictate ownership terms.

Finally, structurally, the post is a disorganized block of text with poor grammar, run-on sentences, and unclear arguments. It jumps from topic to topic without a coherent thread, making it difficult to follow or take seriously.

In short: the post is emotionally driven, factually weak, logically inconsistent, and structurally poor. It offers no data, no market analysis, and no credible alternative—just outrage dressed up as critique.

vibesdot001:
If this is not a bear market, what is this one called?

mikeapollo:
It depends on how real-time each app receives updates from the NGX trading portal.
At end of the day's trading, both would reflect same information when fully updated