Whats new?

On Wednesday, October 15, 2014, former military head of state, retired Major General Muhammadu Buhari, made his much awaited declaration to run for the presidency on the platform of the All Progressives Congress, APC, at the Eagle Square, Abuja. It was the fourth time since 2003 when he broke into the quadrennial vocation of seeking to rule Nigeria again.

As usual, the crowds were there, in large numbers, most of them from Arewa North, confirming the well-known fact that he has a cult following in the Muslim section of Northern Nigeria. Buhari has taken his place along with the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo and Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu as a great Nigerian beloved at the level of fanaticism by people of his ethno-religious section. All three ran for president of Nigeria several times but failed to make it because they could not manage to extend their charismatic appeal beyond their primordial bounds.

BUHARI DECLARES: General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) declaring his intention to seek the All Progressives Congress, APC, nomination to contest next year’s presidential election yesterday.

Buhari has contested against three Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, presidential candidates. In 2003, he made his debut against an incumbent, President Olusegun Obasanjo, who was seeking re-election. In 2007, he went against Governor Umaru Yar’Adua, his fellow Katsina indigene. And in 2011, he was up against an ethnic Minority candidate, Dr Goodluck Jonathan, who was also an incumbent trying his hands for the first time in a nationwide presidential run. Already, the PDP has unanimously okayed President Jonathan for a second term. Buhari is hoping to be nominated from his APC party to square up to the president.

So, what is new from Buhari, you may ask? The APC is a much more formidable political party than all the platforms that Buhari has used in the past. It currently has 14 states under its belt, the highest the opposition has ever got. But the ruling PDP still has 21 states with Anambra, under a strong PDP ally, the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, making the 22th, with the possibility of more states joining before the next election. The veteran presidential aspirant is someone we all know, for his “good, bad and ugly” attributes.

The question: “What is new” is paramount both for Buhari and his co-contestant for the APC ticket, former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, who has also been a presidential candidate on two previous occasions. The same will not apply to newbies, Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso and (if he will run)and Aminu Tambuwal.

Unfortunately, Buhari and his handlers did not address the issue of “what is new” during his declaration. He merely reeled off his usual coup day-like speech, accusing the president he wants to replace of “election rigging”, running down the economy, inability to fix the power situation, dividing the polity, inability to provide security and presiding over a corrupt regime.

Then, he proceeded to list, equally in an intellectually lazy manner, things he hopes to accomplish if he gets our mandate: protection of lives and property, pursuing an economic policy that would promote prosperity and employment, quality education, agricultural productivity for food security, reviving the industries, developing the solid minerals sector and restoring integrity in governance by fighting corruption.

I call it intellectually lazy because anyone can sit down and produce this speech within 30 minutes and use it to campaign in India, Pakistan, Russia, Afghanistan, Algeria, Uganda Nigeria, almost everywhere. Very little was done to analyse each of the sectors and proffer fresh ideas that will inspire uncommitted members of the APC (and Nigerians at large) to see Buhari as a better choice than the others. Perhaps, his supporters will argue that this was a mere declaration for president and the details will come later when the main show begins. That had better be so.

The APC and its candidates must be ready to tackle the PDP and its candidates with superior intellectual engagement way beyond Alhaji Lai Mohammed’s trite market woman-like name-calling propaganda. The late Chief Awolowo produced superior opposition throughout his political career by investing so much in brainpower and periodically analysing the political, social and economic situations of the country.

He made “predictions” and they came true, thus earning him the title of “sage” which his admirers still call him. Many people opposed Awo till he died, but even his most ardent political opponents respected his depth. Chief Odumegwu Ojukwu described him as “the best president Nigeria never had”. It was not a mockery. It will take a lot more than empty name-calling to bring down a sitting Nigerian president like Jonathan.

And make no mistakes about it: President Jonathan and his party, having run the country for slightly more than four years, now have unlike in 2011,figures and facts with which they will try to woo the uncommitted voter to vote for continuity rather than change. They don’t even need to engage Lai Mohammed in street verbal exchanges. The incumbency factor will be heavy on their side. For the opposition to stand any chance, it must be ready to engage the achievements and failures of the Jonathan administration TRUTHFULLY and show how they would do it better if given a chance. Obvious lies or deceptive postulations may backfire.

For instance, Buhari got it wrong when he said the economy is “going down”. This flies in the face of known facts. The economy is actually “going up”, based on figures from the Central Bank of Nigeria, the National Bureau of Statistics, the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the various international rating agencies.

It is no longer news that Nigeria is now the largest economy in Africa and the 26th largest in the world; and that the economy is growing at a much faster and higher rate than Buhari left it in 1994, thanks to a strong team of world class technocrats powering that sector. Buhari actually ran an economy in which there were no essential goods in the shops to buy!

But it can also be argued that the dividends of economic growth are not yet being felt by the generality of Nigerians. Jonathan had better tell us how he intends to make the people feel the growth in 2015 and beyond when the campaigns begin.

A sound opposition party and candidate will tell us how they will grow the economy at even faster rate, while getting the people to feel its impact. It will not dispute the fact that the economy is growing just to demonise the sitting regime and score cheap points to deceive those who are ignorant.

Buhari knows better than to say power generation in Nigeria was 4,000 megawatts in 1999. That was a needless lie! It was less than 2,000 megawatts. In 16 years, the PDP Federal Government took it to nearly 5,000 megawatts after reportedly spending some $20 billion or so. Is that satisfactory? I say NO. But why lie when the truth will do? Is that how you will fight corruption?

Elections have gotten better under President Jonathan both at state and federal levels, and election winners have been sworn-in irrespective of their political parties. Our democracy has grown. Someone who has lost elections three times in a row may not admit that. He may justify himself by complaining of “rigging”.

Buhari needs to change tactics. He must come out of the North because North and West alone cannot give him victory. If he proceeds to 2015 with the old tactics of the three lost elections,the result should be obvious even before the election holds