₦airaland Forum

Interested in Trading Psychology

Chk out:
http://tradingcomposure.com/


#HappyTrading

Agbalowomeri:
Result bull on the way
Be prepared
Next week

Strong short term breakouts need:
1) Earnings report > FA's expectations / projections OR
2) Dividend > Retail investor expectations


loll.. those that fall short . . umm

2zona:
Board meeting held today, audited FY '17 report and board's resolution to be uploaded on NSE website tomorrow or next.

- Expected Div baked nicely into price !
- d cake is not ready yet

DeRuggedProf:

I was listening to one broker, he said when they want to buy at say N2.00 which is an established support, they make sure they trade at that support for days, then break it very sharply to an extreme down side.
Many people no longer hold their breath and you have a nice heap of offers that saves you all the commissions.
Likewise, they pierce a resistance very sharply to calm nerves before they start real offloading....

Lov it .. i will do d same as a big fund mgr
its way more easier for camels to enter the eye of a needle



#Mark 10:25

DeRuggedProf:
I hate supports that are tested more than twice!
Friction causes wear and tear...

bus driver says he cant moove with too many passengers on board
calling all those that entered d bus at d last junction to come down lollx
so we need dat third test wt a nice fake out to up & down side
retailers don stubborn dis yr lolxx

DeRuggedProf:
Wigwe no wan make ship move, I dey mid-sea without compass.....

lollx
tight squeeze offers greater probability

DeRuggedProf:
Daimond Bank: Decide for yourself...

The Prof ! Where you go ? Wakanda ! !
Earnings Season is upon us

4 Dangerous Emotional Indicators

Pride
screams, “Don’t stop your loss! Prove you are right! It will come back, just wait.”

Fear
advises, “Go ahead and take your profit quickly! We can’t let our winners run. Let’s take the small profit now, because the profit could reverse and we will end up with a loss.”

Greed
assures, “This trade can’t miss! I am sure it will be a huge winner. Bet your whole account! We will be rich!”

Hope
whispers, “I am not sure what a good entry is here, so I am just going to buy this stock and hope for the best.”

copied
link: http://www.newtraderu.com/2013/06/28/4026/

fxuser:
]]

- loads of support at the level

Just Before Noon
Day low N2.96
Opening Price N3.11
Day High N3.19
WAvg N3.05

Interesting support build up

Dis
bought some early , stop loss N2.50

fxuser:
FBN
- lots of support below N11 , not likely going to drop below !

TA Newbies
- can u spot the +ve RSI & MACD (even stoch) divergence on the 2hr & 4 hr ??

TLAX:
Diamond and FCMB competing on who will loose ground faster.....

- yet to hit a strong support level where buyers can come in !
- com ci com sa

fxuser:
Fidelity
- re-testing below N3
-

]]

- loads of support at the level

Transcorp
- re-testing below N2 also

safepaulooo:
Brother, Watch it get to #9.50. Forget the fake bids you see

watching sir

Fidelity
- re-testing below N3
-

fxuser:
FBN
- lots of support below N11 , not likely going to drop below !

DAngFlour
- is dat a break out ? or fake out

FBN
- lots of support below N11 , not likely going to drop below !

ETI
- highest vol traded yesterday for Feb

locodemy:
@ 10.85,anyone selling now will still not regret selling because the banks will continue to receive the beating of their lives.At this time FBN is remembered for NPL.
Lets see if the support will hold at #8.

umm N8

godlyguy:
FBNH will pay dividend but how much will they pay? It's better to cashout first then comeback in when the flow is over... I have made more than 300% on FBN... I'm waiting for them @#7 or less then I reenter...

THE BIG SMART GUY

umm N7

February

- Pull back month
- Just 5 trading days left
- most stocks trading below their Jan Monthly closing high and 52 week high
- a number of them forming monthly pin bars / hammer (meaning buyers rejected monthly lows) ( also see prev BBM comments too)
- but very few trading above and holding on to their Jan gains (Ex: nem, afriprud, pz , unilever , mansard, RedStar, seplat, fidson & be be lo)
- March will be earnings month of recovery for some and new breakout for other , time will tell
- stay calm

RabbiDoracle:
How market?

fair oh, fbn don expose d money bags. Over a billion traded

GTB

- last 3 weekly candles getting smaller (less volatility), support above 45 looks decent
- we need dis chief mkt leader to do well to pave way for others esp in d bnk index


DangCem
- testing below N250 ! ! #smh
- Alhaji's baby is just toying with the index up and dan lollx

mendes911:
Look at how our MM quietly removed his/her 5m units of flourmills bid and quietly offloaded on other bids.

I love this game though.

loll not all MM are created equal
#nbst

Coolcash1:
More of buy the news and sell the rumour...

Newbies please stay away from Japaul and Skye for now until the coast is clear....

Master jijoists food don ready...Let's sharpen our cutlasses...

and some think market participants are rational
lol

samzepaparazi:
At this price of 2.55 diamond bank has potential of returning 15% if it gets to 3.0
12% @2.90

I need advice. Do you think its a good entry point or will the stock still drop in your opinion

there is also the likelyhood of a slightly lower retest , but who know really ..
there is no certainty in this biz
but d last 3 weeks , SP has opened lower and closed lower on a weekly basis (pull backs are not created equal)
my concerns are not with d upside , but with where to put a stop loss , umm maybe n2 for example

Let say
Entry 2.47
Stop Loss N2.00
Target : N3.00
Risk -23.5%
Reward +21.46%

This is a very dangerous risk reward play ! #IMO
but wat do i know

IchimokuPilot:
This game is crazy.
I wish I had sold all my Fcmb, FBNH, Fidelity and Diamond first week of this month.
See FBNH that overtook Access bank doing boy boy.
Even UBA is afraid of meeting Access, why?
They kept saying it will reach five 5.naira.

I am not buying again till all some results are out.

This game hard small.
I thought it was a game of profit everyday..

haaa baaaa profit everyday ke
we need this pull back , all dis dividend distraction is adding flavour to it
by d time some good earnings drop , sentiments will change
na human behaviour

FlourMills

- full bid on pre - closing day

For those who like 'news' analysis:

Quote from Rencap

+++
Nigerian banks : CBN includes additional provision for dividend pay-outs

A local newspaper reported today that CBN released a circular barring banks with significant NPL ratios from paying dividends. While a circular was indeed released recently, unlike what the news article suggests, this banis not a new development. It was originally implemented on 8 October, 2014 in a circular which stipulated that a bank’s ability to pay dividend is based on;

NPL ratio ; where banks with NPL ratios above 10% shall not be allowed to pay dividend.
Capital position ; where banks which do not meet the minimum capital adequacy ratio shall not be allowed to pay dividend.
Credit risk ratings (CRR) ; which are not typically disclosed by the banks.

The revised circular, however, includes an additional provision; banks that have capital adequacy ratios (CAR) of at least 3% above the minimum requirement, CRR of “Low” and NPL ratio of more than 5% but less than 10%, shall have a dividend pay-out ratio of not more than 75% of profit after tax. These restrictions only apply to the banking entity, and not the group ; FBNH for instance paid out ₦0.20k per share (51% dividend pay-out) in FY16, despite an NPL ratio of 24.4%. This was paid out of the other non-banking subsidiaries within the group.

Based on our conversations with management, we think that a 75% pay -out ratio is highly unlikely. We note that the highest dividend pay-out ratio for the banks in our coverage universe in FY17E is c. 50% (GTBank and Zenith). We expect the banks to take a conservative stance on dividend pay-out in light of IFRS 9 capital requirements, which could reduce CAR by as much as 150bpts in a worst case scenario. Zenith, UBA and Fidelity offer attractive dividend yields of 7-8% based on our FY17 estimates while GTBank and Access stand closer to 5-6%. Dividends will be declared with the release of FY17 numbers, which we expect in about twoweeks.

bank /FY 16 /FY17E
Access 26% / 30%
Diamond 0% / 0%
ETI 0% / 10%
FCMB 14% / 10%
Fidelity 42% / 40%
FBNH 51% / 20%
GTB 45% / 50%
UBA 37% / 35%
Zenith 49% / 50%
++++

End Quote

IMO:
people shud not based their decision on panic / fear ! this same people will change mouth every quarter.

Note to Self
- a good buy is most uncomfortable


DangFlour
- not really moving away from N16, very tight day range & 6 week range
- no 2 pull backs are d same
- all consolidations are not created equal


Zenith
- similar to dang flour , very tight 6 weeks consolidation ongoing
- its easier to set a stop loss and just stay calm

#JustObserving

#StayCalmFolks

Transcorp
- dis support area (1.90 - N2 ) is key to d med and long term
- stop loss remains at 1.90 levels
- lowest price in 6 weeks is N1.85
- i'm a holder here and a buyer at dis region


dis:
my avg cost is much lower