₦airaland Forum

Let me use images to show you.

Look at the image below and you'll see the small red box the yellow arrow is pointing, that is the back NTM of the yellow box.

Look down again and you'll see where an orange colored arrow is pointing a green and yellow dot. Zoom it at it carefully and you'll see a dotted blue line. Ehe! That's the SITM of blue box, where the price is supposed to dump to and it did exactly that.

This means the market is normal and perfect and it lets you know the NTM in front of yellow box won't touch SITM of that yellow box. If one happens, the other won't. If it doesn't, the other will.

Now let's look at the one for black swan and purple swan (I came up with that name).

The Most Dangerous Boxes in Boxnalysis

Among the eight boxes of Boxnalysis: Red, ...urple, Green, Blue, Yellow, White, Honeydew, and Orange — the most dangerous period is the Green Box or Yellow Box.

Not really those boxes themselves, but the NTM (No Trade Month) immediately before the Green or Yellow Box.

That small red box the yellow arrow in the picture below is pointing, yes, that's the most dangerous place in every cycle.

These NTMs represent the highest-risk phase of the Bitcoin cycle and should be approached with extreme caution even though it lasts on 1 month. The main purpose of NTM is to crash to SITM level or dump to black swan level.

If you're lucky, it won't dump or touch SITM, but it'll surely do it in the next NTM in front of Green or Yellow box. Though, in few occasions, it will do a purple swan, which is, pump so hard to liquidate shorts who were expecting a dump or retest of SITM as usual.

Risk Management Rule

When the weekly candle reaches the end of the box preceding the NTM that comes before a Green or Yellow Box:

Hedge your position.
Do not remove the hedge during the NTM.
Remain protected until the danger period has passed.

Removing the hedge too early can be costly because Bitcoin may experience a sharp decline during this phase, turning a profitable long position into a losing trade.

What to Expect During the Danger Zone

The primary expectation during this NTM is for the weekly candle to decline and touch the SITM (Sweet in the Middle) of the previous box.

If Bitcoin fails to touch that SITM during the NTM before the Green Box, the market will often seek it later.

In such cases, the NTM in front of Green or Yellow will dump aggressively to reach and touch the missed SITM level of its box.

Summary

Rule of Thumb — Boxnalysis

In simple terms. Every box has two NTM (one at the back and one in front) and the one at the back is the most important and the most dangerous. It determines what the one in front will do.

If the back one touches SITM or dumps, the front NTM will not touch the SITM of Green or Yellow box. If it doesn't, then the front one will.

So, be cautious with the one at the back and hedge your long position at the beginning of that NTM, then unhedge after the NTM is over and the new box, green or yellow, has printed.

2020 black swan happened exactly at the back of Green box, the back NTM. While

The NTM before the Green Box and Yellow Box is the most dangerous zone in the entire Bitcoin cycle. Hedge at the end of the preceding box, remain hedged throughout the NTM, and only consider removing the hedge after the storm has passed.

The market frequently uses this period to seek the SITM of a previous box before continuing its larger cycle progression.

— Joe Clef, Boxnalysis Framework

Time to watch those 17 videos on X2 speed.

Modified:

Watched and only 3 of them were related to what I wanted.

NJV:
Eyahhhh. I'm sure she'll understand.

I guess she will.

THE HISTORY OF BOXNALYSIS

I first heard about Bitcoin in 2010 while I was in the university.

Despite hearing about Bitcoin, I never developed any interest in it. Looking back today, I sometimes wonder what would have happened if I had paid attention. Perhaps I would have accumulated more than enough.

Part of the reason I ignored it was because many people associated Bitcoin with criminal activity.

I frequently heard stories about fraudsters using it, and since I have always disliked crime and dishonesty, I stayed away from it. Instead, I focused on my education and continued with my life — eat, party, exercise, study.

Years later, after returning to Nigeria, Bitcoin became impossible to ignore. Everywhere online, people were talking about it, especially Nairaland.

"Bitcoin is going up."
"Bitcoin is making people rich."
"Bitcoin is changing lives."

This was around 2021.
At the time, I had some money because I had published several relationship books on Amazon and co. The royalties were generating hundreds, and sometimes thousands, of dollars every month.

Eventually, curiosity got the better of me. I decided to investigate Bitcoin for myself.

People kept saying that you could buy low, sell high, and multiply your money. So I withdrew some of my book royalties and moved the funds from Payoneer to Binance through P2P trading.

I made my first profit.

I remember staring at the screen and asking myself, "Is this real?"

My first withdrawal was either 35k or 37k. To celebrate, I bought a live goat. Unfortunately, after the goat was slaughtered, a baby goat was discovered inside. Had I known, I would never have allowed it. To this day, I regret that moment.

As my interest grew, I immersed myself in the world of cryptocurrency education. I watched countless hours of content from many well-known figures in the industry.

Among the people who influenced me most were Steve from Crypto Crew University and Benjamin Cowen. I also followed many others, including BitBoy Crypto, Coin Bureau, Garret Soloway and numerous analysts and educators.

At one point, I was consuming hundreds of crypto videos every month. I was OBSESSED!

Like most traders, I experienced both victories and defeats.

Sometimes I would deposit $500 into exchanges such as Hotbit. I would turn it into $1,000 or even $2,000+ in few hours. Then, through poor decisions or market volatility, I would lose a large portion of it again or everything.

But every win and every loss taught me something.

I learned about Bitcoin cycles, market structure, price action, macroeconomics, on-chain analysis, and countless trading theories.

But, I neglected Market Psychology or maybe I didn't take it seriously at the time. I couldn't control my emotions at the time and I desperately needed to.

At a point, I said, "Someone in my village is after me. Why does it always go down whenever I buy and pumps whenever I sell early? Why are they monitoring only me? What have I done to deserve this?"

One thing, however, caught my attention more than anything else.

Benjamin Cowen often discussed how certain months repeatedly performed poorly for Bitcoin. He would mention how August behaved, how September tended to perform, and how specific periods repeatedly produced weakness across cycles.

Instead of simply listening, I decided to investigate fish out those months, which I call FAMAMS (Feb, Aug, Mar, Aug, Mar, Sept.) The repetition is not error, they're different years.

If these months repeatedly behaved the same way most times (crash), why not mark them directly on the chart?

That simple question led to my first major discovery.

I began identifying and highlighting months that consistently produced weak performance. I called them No Trade Months (NTM).

My reasoning was straightforward:

If history showed that these months repeatedly created difficult trading conditions, then perhaps I could avoid unnecessary risk simply by staying out of the market during those periods or short them. Though, FAMAMs of Relax year is different from that  of Sell year. Don't worry, you'll know about it soon.

The concept worked surprisingly well.

However, Boxnalysis had not yet been born.

At that stage, I was still researching, experimenting, testing ideas, back-testing thing and studying every aspect of the market I could find.

Then came 2024.

By this time, I was spending virtually every day on TradingView, I mean, more than 17 hours every single day.

I had reliable electricity, reliable internet, and access to multiple network providers. There were no obstacles preventing me from studying the market.

And I don't sleep at night because my body has refused to readjust after spending years in a country that is 7 hours ahead of Nigeria. Maybe, I just can't sleep while Elon Musk is awake working.

I watched charts for countless hours. watched hundreds, possibly thousands, of educational videos. Eventually, I became overwhelmed.

Every guru had a different theory.
Every analyst had a different prediction.
Every trader had a different system.
One day I made a decision.

I said to myself:

"I know who I am. I am going to build my own system. I must make my mark. Enough of Elliott waves and others. Do they have two heads?"

I returned to the months I had identified years earlier.
I drew boxes around the periods that repeatedly produced weakness.

Then I looked at the periods between those months. If certain periods consistently performed poorly, what about the periods between them?

What if those periods represented entirely different market conditions? I started drawing more boxes.

Then more boxes.
Then refining them.
Testing them.
Breaking them apart.
Rebuilding them.
Over and over again.

That process became the birth of Boxnalysis.

The more I refined it, the more patterns emerged.

The more patterns emerged, the more confidence I gained.

Then came the breakthrough.
The light bulb moment.

Everything suddenly connected.

Secrets began to reveal themselves and I was overwhelmed with "wow" moments.

The boxes were not random.

The market was moving through recurring phases that could be visually organized and understood.

Years of observation, testing, back-testing and refinement had finally produced something unique. It looked complex at first, but extremely easy to draw and understand even for a layman.

Boxnalysis was no longer an idea.

It had become a framework that has more than 90% win rate because it's based on history, volume, cycle, structure and repetition.

A framework designed to simplify market cycles, identify high-probability opportunities, and remove much of the noise that overwhelms traders.

That was the beginning of Boxnalysis. It's the simplest and most powerful system you'll ever use. It has patience in-built, not for desperate traders. In fact, it's not for traders, but for Boxnalysts.

Are you ready to became a Boxnalyst? You'll thank me later.

And this b👀k is the story of what came next.

Apology and Plea Post

Look at how I have transferred the bad energy you people give me here to an innocent female Nairalander. (Married).

She said I sounded rude and truly I was kinda rude cuz most messages I get from Nairalanders are billing and billing (which I chested most), hence I became defensive cuz no matter how tough I act online, I'm actually sympathetic offline to a level.

Anyway, she wanted to pay to learn Boxnalysis, but I don't charge money for that. I share for free and it must be in the open, like Nairaland. (Though, I have taught one person for free on WhatsApp, but that's my first and last).

To that woman that messaged me, I'm sorry. I was way too defensive.

Lately, I reply messages fast with so much energy, not because I have all the time, cuz I want to get done with the conversation FAST and move on with something new, but some people might think I have all the time in the world that's why I'm replying immediately, NO. (I type really fast even with eyes closed. I know where all the QWERTYs and other letters are. Don't take my speed for availability).

Anyway, I apologize again. It seems Nairaland is affecting my energy negatively. I'm becoming too hostile.

I guess I need a break for some months from this place. But I still have a lot to teach. How I go do am now?

Also, if you're a Nairalander messaging me on WhatsApp, try not to keep me in suspense of what you came for, else, I'll think you came to bill me just like 90% of the people who have been messaging me lately and I'll become hostile while thinking all the rapport is just to get into me before you strike.

I prefer messages like: Hi, I hope this is iLegend? My moniker is Kevin227 from Nairaland. I got your number from there and I want to (state your purpose).

The moment you refuse to state it in your first or second message, I become suspicious and say to myself, "there they go again, Lekki Street Boy Association." They beg privately, abuse publicly.

So, thank you everyone. I'm considering my next line of action to reduce this negative energy.

Bluearrow:
Honestly some of us appreciate the knowledge & info u share here. God bless bro

You're welcome. For detailed info on the 4 year halving cycle and indicator to use, watch this video by Kevin Svenson.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Y5yOio99V0?si=RL7TD1Yfh0DZpbbY

SeeWahala:
Hehehe 🤣😂 battle of the nyasch shakers 😏

Try dey drop one-liners like this and I go read and reply. The other ones you've been posting, I didn't read them. I hope you know I have pride and I'm the most arrogant man in Nigeria. I dictate the flow of things, else I'm out.

By the way, your comment is funny and it even made me laugh.

Continuation of the video above. I just watched this one today. I didn't know the guy has been posting. I'll go and watch all his 17 videos tonight and might learn one or two.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jl8iv-lbNfs?si=N_2wao73viGyPIhS

The video that changed my life and made me switch from predicting market top price to focusing on selling 1 month and a week before the 80th week from the day if halving. Time-based price is the boss.

I'm happy not enough people know this and it's been accurate in all cycles.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCPVgg9n4I8?si=hJq6f5D0j3asA_C5

Nemenma:
It's today that I knew of a truth there is no hope for crypto. The way bgb is falling like a knife eh. My tired is tired

It seems you're new and didn't experience 10th of October, 2025 dump.

Also, you seem not to care about the 4-year cycle. We're in a bear market and all pumps are temporary and can't last for more than 3 weeks or max, a month.

I specialise in BTC history, patterns, behaviour, moves, tricks, volume, monthly + yearly trend, 4-year halving cycle and patience.

I used to be like everyone else on 5 mins timeframe, checking lower timeframe market structure, falling wedge, dojis and price WITH green and red candles that make my heart skip when a see a long 15 mins red candle.

Today, my candles are white and grey and my heart doesn't skip anymore cuz my default timeframe is 1 week and my entry is my greatest priority.

90% of my victory is my entry. The other 10% is patience and co.

Boxnalysis is the saviour of weekly, monthly and yearly BTC trading/investment. It's the most accurate and advanced system in crypto and a proud Nigerian invented it.

Right now, 2026, honeydew box only did 29% dump. Now guess what's left? Let the yellow arrow guide you.

For 2022, see what happened. Read the text in orange color. It pretended as if it won't do a 50% dump and started going up, just as it's doing now, then came back later and did 63% dump, 13% extra. So, be warned in the current market.

My chart may look cluttered, but don't worry, it's not. Na who get big (p) rick dey know whether e dey heavy.

I'm not supposed to reveal all these things cuz they may not sound necessary to you.

Anyway, just know that the Honeydew box always crashes at least 50% from top of the box to bottom. Note, I'm referring to ONLY the honeydew box.

See images of 2014, 2018, 2022 at 50% or more crash, but this year, 2026, we're only at 29% crash and that means we need extra 21% crash and that is 40-42k. Why? The top of Honeydew box is 82k and half of 82 is $41k.

Even if history doesn't repeat, it'll at least rhyme.

By the way, ignore everything on the images below and focus only on what the yellow arrow is pointing and the red write-up.

Boxnalysis, the most accurate system in the world, has told me to tell everyone to brace up for 50-48k this June.

The demonic side of Boxnalysis is even preparing for 41-40k before end of June.

Message passed.

The market is just waiting for a negative news it'll use to cover shame. It can't just crash like that, it needs something to blame. Maybe, Trump will help us or Hyperliquid will get hacked or any tangible bad news.

So, in my next post, I'll explain how to us the triangle to spot the exact bottom, which has worked in all 3 previous cycles.

Stay tuned. Lemme enjoy small Tiktok before I sleep.

Okay



I didn't read, but whatever you said, I agree. Odogwu!

But wait, did I just give this thing my attention? I'm disappointed in myself.

Tinubu wants to set a record no one can break.

By the way, what is price action? Define it so I can disgrace you.

LondonExpress:
You don't even understand the basis of price action, you still have a long way to go.

Thank you for reading as always. I appreciate your input.

Can you teach us so I can learn or you want to hoard it as always?

Jammykay, I no longer read what you post, but I do enjoy the attention of you always quoting me. Keep it up and God will surely bless you. By this time 2029 or 2030, you must've given up cuz important things in your life or battles of life will preoccupy you.

I had to use ChatGPT to give you a better image when next you post.

Whatever you're going true, you'll surely find a lasting solution. As you promote me, be it negatively or positively, God will promote you too.

Stay strong and stay blessed.

DFPS:
How high do you think BTC can go before the next pullback? I'm asking so I know when to cut

63 to 67k. You can sell at 64k.

ishayaauta:
I'm always lucky, but I don't mind buying it from you even right now.... your predictions are crazily good

Not for sale.

We haven't even talked about Orange box. That one predicts the top of the box and the bottom of the cycle with 100% accuracy too.


Too much of anything is bad, so I'll go into this one later.

For it to be accurate, the honeydew bottom and SITM need to be there, but we currently don't have them yet till first week of July.

If you draw that triangle in honeydew box of 2014, 2018, 2022 and 2026, the below image is what you'll get. Buy the ways, white box can be double, but that's advanced.

What this triangle does is to give you 100% confidence to short recklessly when a weekly candle goes above it cuz that's the top for the box and it's about to crash. It was 💯% accurate in all bear markets.

Feels like legal cheating.

I deserved to be banned from trading crypto. The tools I have discovered is like having Messi and Osimhen in your team — that's cheating.

Before we continue, ask yourself how I was able to trade with so much confidence and even used the highest leverage? It's because I used magical triangle. I can go for a month with a single trade as I await my setup and when it comes on, I go heavy.

This triangle has been 100% accurate since BTC was invented and I'm the only one who knows it cuz I discovered it and this is my first time sharing it to humans.

Pay attention to the blue and yellow arrows. Those are places I shorted with 100% confidence with money I can lose and still feel good. I don't trade with just 1 account or 10 account, but more.

If I see more interest, I'll continue with the lecture, else I'll stop.

Below image is our current stage in the market and it's as accurate as it was in 2014 bear, 2018 bear and 2022 bear market.

Boxnalysis doesn't fail and has never failed. Even if one day it fails, you'll come back to win even more. You're guaranteed of at least 95% victory.

I'll show you this same chart in 2014, 2018 and 2022 if you're interested in more.

The rule is: you start shorting when it pokes above the the first triangle and go HEAVY when it pokes above the second triangle.

This was exactly what I did and that was why I shorted at 82.1k. 80k and a little lower.

Let's put the two drawings on top of each other.

If you're confused click share and ask questions before I continue.

If you understand, click like.

Start...

Look at the image above, focus only on the 4 blue arrows and where they're pointing. They'll be used.

On top of honeydew box, draw a triangle starting from the SITM (1)
of White box to the bottom (3).

Draw another triangle from the top price (4) of honeydew box to the bottom of white box or last weekly candle (2) of White box.

Typing

As I said, the previous box reveals what will happen in the next box and from what happens, you take action accordingly.

How does previous box do it? It's through the help of SITM (sweet in the middle) — that dotted line from the middle of each box and the bottom or top of that previous box.

With this, SITM and bottom (or last weekly candle) of the previous box, you'll deduce what will happen next.

Currently, we're in box 7, being the Honeydew box (named based on color coding). After honeydew, the next box is the Orange box, but let's focus on honeydew first.

Typing...