₦airaland Forum

Walahi Ojukwu and Azikiwe most hear This!

I'm not being sentimental, I'm a northerner

HIGHESTPOPORI:
You are been sentimental, tinubu will finish Obi in the North when Atiku has the North on lock down? Keep dreaming

Lol read what I wrote again. You are too emotional, your either a small boy new to politics or from SE known for their emotional tendencies

Whether Tinubu comes 3rd, 4th, 5th etc in Edo State or SS is inconsequential, as long as he gets 25% in 3 states, then it's very bad for PO.. PO most win SS by 70% or more to stand any chance(which is impossible as he has Tinubu and Atiku to contend with).. anything short of this will be catastrophic for him because this are the only region he can get block votes

Lagos is a cosmopolitan state, I can't tell by the merging he will win.. however, outside Lagos, Tinubu is certain to win by 70% and sweep all the states comfortably

Yoruba hating Tinubu is just the figment of ur imagination! Not every Yoruba is supporting Tinubu just like not every Ibo is supporting Obi.. But if u think they weill abandon their son, then I believe ur highly delusional and ignorant

Tinubu will be a winner and runner up in 4 regions(SW,NC,NW,NE), what is the way for PO

Workch:
In reality, Tinubu will be distance 3rd in Edo behind ATiku.

Tinubu cannot get 55% Lagos votes. Not to talk of block votes in SW.

The reality on ground is that Tinubu in highly rejected in southsouth, even ATiku is more preferred than him.

Tinubu is also highly rejected within Yoruba circle, although majority of Yorubas will still vote for him but he’s not even 70% accepted.

Another reality is that, no one will rig any election for Tinubu with the emergence of BVAS

Dem don start already! Nyamuri and confusion

For keeping that hunch back bleaching pigdiot cownu incarcerated, while feeding him watery beans! He deserves more than this

You can keep lying to console, comfort, reassure and soothe yourself.. but it won't change the reality on ground!

point of corrections

1- the SS is not lockdown for PO, you can keep repeating this lie, but we won't buy it.. Tinubu is certain to get 25% in Edo, CR, Delta and Bayelsa.. the highest PO can pull overall in SS is 50%(which is very bad for a region u claim lockdown).. he can't get block votes like how u portray it

2- your not a northerner, so I don't expect u to know or believe this, but kwankwasso won't scatter or compete in votes.. his best outing will only be restricted in Kano and Jigawa state

3- Tinubu will get block votes from SW, while finishing PO in the north

Workch:
See, Obi has scarce resources for his campaign. He’s not running a mega party that will avail him looted funds. He needs to use the available resources judiciously.

Northwest and northeast are going to be his last priorities for obvious reasons;

1. These regions won’t give block votes in 2023, APC, Atiku and kwankwanso are already on ground to scatter the votes and make them statistically not very consequential for anyone who becomes 2nd and 3rd here.

2. The only regions that will most likely give block votes are southeast and southsouth. These regions are a winner takes all regions.

3. Anyone who gets the block votes in southeast and southsouth will most likely get the chance to make a rerun with whoever win NE and NW slimly.

4. Obi cannot invest scarce resource where it will yield little results, he can employ other strategies in NW and NE like door to door campaign that will save more money. NW and NE will yield inconsequential results for him. So instead of wasting money, why not focus on your strength first then you can later do NE and NW, anything you get there is going to be a plus.

Maybe they didn't know he had to pay the likes of Ayo Adebanjo and his Afenifebi team then settle some others who supplied Ankara

Are you the one on ur dp?

Lizzysamuel:
IPOB Tinubu

IPOB are the ones decamping to Labour party

OnyeAshuaUru:
LP has no time for the staged fuc.kery called defection. We are busy mobilising grassroot votes for a new Nigeria with Peter Obi.
Nasarawa will vote wisely.

Apart from SW, which he will clear.. Tinubu needs just 25% in 3 other state in south

Tinubu doesn't need to win 8 states, the votes he will get in Borno and Yobe state alone will make up for any deficiency in south

Ttalk:
I am not the type that play politics with sentiments as I am a realist to the core when it come to supporting candidate and political predictions.

A lot of people have been giving permutations and predictions on the outcome of 2023 presidential election but many have not been able to look at 2023 election from different point of view away from the previous elections in Nigeria.

2023 presidential election is a 3 horse race fight among three contestants namely; Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi.

The purpose of my post is directed at Tinubu's Supporters on how their candidate can win majority votes in at least 8 states in the entire South.

It is certain that Tinubu will clear 6 SW states with very good performance, however, there's need for Tinubu to win additional states in the South.

Which States do you think that could be?

What should Tinubu and APC supporters in the South be doing to actualise this.

Please note that I limit my discussion to Southern region as many posts here have judiciously treated Tinubu's performance in the other 3 regions in the north.

Let's hear your opinion on how Tinubu can win 8 States in the South in 2023 presidential election

cc

Garfield
Batified
FreestuffNG
Kwararat
Dsalvo
Moh247
Femisplash
ihorspy
Plain dealer
Legend hero
ItsTutsi

This is the foolish Pandora Him Tu Lie.. they didn't let him into the building, the flat.head effeminate frog voice had to snap outside!

OneCandleAway:
The woman is just cashing out on their stupidity.

She'll get paid for these photo ops

But Tinubu will get 25%

Owologbo:
I'm not from SE.
I'm a Deltan. And I'm telling you that Delta State is between Atiku and Peter Obi.

Ojukwu

The effeminate frog voice will soon deny it

Ibo man can never be president! God forbid.. Na minority seat una go get

Urheadmaster:
Governor Ben Ayade will make a good senate President under the leadership of Peter Obi

Oyoyo Jagaban!

Ojukwu, Chinedu, Ikechukwu and I are solidly behind u!

This head resemble Chinedu

LeoDeKing:
Shildren of 8 are peeping.

Tinubu together with Sen.Wamakko have strategic meeting with former Zamfara state Governor, Alh. Abdul'aziz Abubakar Yari yesterday at his residence, Maitama District, Abuja.

Can PO compete with Tinubu in the north?

Newton2024:
He who wins the Southern part of the country is likely going to win the entire race. Who is more popular between Peter Obi and Ahmed Tinubu in SW, SS and SE?

Like for Peter Obi

Share for Tinubu

Tinubu will definitely get 25% in Delta, CR, Bayelsa and Edo State

You should worry more on Pandora getting 25% in any northern state

sonature1:
The question should be "Between Atiku and Obi, who will win the South?"

That's because Tinubu will be struggling to get 25% outside the South West. His gaffes are too many and disgraceful.

In fact, Atiku Abubukar will get more votes in SE and SS more than Tinubu.

When I said Wike, I was referring to Rivers State not SS.. Wike's aides and support base has enough votes to give anybody 25% or more

SS is not SE neither, SS can never be lockdown for PO like how Ibo want to portray it! The best result PO can pull there is 50%, while Atiku and Tinubu will share the rest

Lol ur even talking about decamping. What Gov, Senator, HOA, HOR etc does L.P. have?

Owologbo:
depending where Wike swing?
this is funny.
You think Delta State or SS in general is one kind of mono ethnic region where someone from River State can have effect on people from other states?
you should learn from what happened to APC in Delta State even with a sitting governor Oduagha decamp to APC after PDP denied him senatorial ticket.
SS is not SW ok.

Tinubu will definitely get 25% in Delta, CR, Edo and Bayelsa.. Rivers State dependfing where Wike swings

Owologbo:
which state in SS are you from that you think tinubu has a chance in SS?
SS States is between Atiku and Peter Obi. you can bookmark this.

Na only IPOB dey decamp to Labour party

It's either ur being mischievous in support of Tinubu or your not conversant with authentic northerners on nairaland.. most of those monikers/threads spewing up recently in support of Atiku, is one person or two creating multiple moniker and threads

Just check the date, mostly are from 18 October up words and they don't engage in discussions

Faiththatworks:
I MADE THiS COMMENT ON NAIRALAND 2 MONTHS AGO,THANK GOD ASIWAJU is SEEING WHAT SOME OF US KNOW WILL HAPPEN NEXT YEAR,THE NORTH SHOULD NEVER BE HIS PLAN A,.......,........................................

I always start by making my bias very clear,I will vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu in February 2023 and yes I have my Voters card ready.
Back to the matter,I hope Asiwaju's aides come to Nairaland to read comments,I think it's time for Us Asiwaju Die hard supporters to be realistic with what will happen Next year.
It's time to start making projections for Next year Elections.
The Task to elect Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu will be a battle,and it's time to start fighting Dirty.
The projections are very simple, whoever will become president of Nigeria needs to win only 17 states,I repeat only 17 states.
Asiwaju must be realistic about his projections,the North will betray him so he should stop the very crazy and futile effort of trying to please them.
My own Suggestions is for Asiwaju to concentrate on the 6 South-west states,and humble himself to make a deal with Gov Obaseki,Edo state is the only state that looks winnable outside the areas where ApC has Governors.
He should throw his resources into Cross Rivers and Ebonyi state.
Asiwaju will only be president if he can win at least 9 states in the South.
He should focus on these 4 States in the North Central,kogi,Kwara, Nassarawa and Niger.
For the North West and North East,only a Zombie will think H.E Atiku and Sen Kwankwanso will lose their states to Asiwaju.
He should only focus on winning four states in the North West and East.
Borno,Yobe,Kebbi and Gombe.
Only those 4 States look winnable.
I think Asiwaju supporters should start helping H.E Obi campaign, Peter Obi must scatter Atiku Vote in all the Eastern States and some South-south States.
Obi must win at least 3 states while Kwankwanso must win at least Kano and Jigawa.
This is the only route I see through which Asiwaju can ever become the President of Nigeria.
God bless Nigeria.

Abeg shut up!! Werey! See how u confidently spew trash like elections are done in ur bear parlour, you think this is RadioBia.fraud?

Who are you to say south will reject Tinubu.. leave ur SE emotional mentality to ur fellow flat.heads

Tinubu will clear his region, just like PO.. while, SS will be battle ground.. I'm 100% certain Tinubu will get 25% in Delta, Edo, CR and Bayelsa, while PO and Atiku will settle 75%

In the north, Tinubu will totally annihilate PO.. apart from Benue and maybe Plateau State, PO won't see 25% in any northern State

JASONjnr:
You should know that, southerners will never reason like the Northerners who will vote anyone that gives them peanuts at the booting center....

We carefully examine and vet candidates....

South will reject Tinubu and that's a fact....

The East will reject him as well....

Tinubu already made a mistake by putting the north as his priority to win election ...When Atiku and Kwankwaso is from that region...

It will be very difficult for him and the north will only receive him to collect the cakes he's been sharing....

Lol SS is far from being a Eastern region, ur attach by force has been lossing steam recently! SS are not sentimental, tribal and religious bigots.. their reasoning is not beclouded by hatred

That's why they have produced the VP and president, while una flat.head still Labour in vain

That's why they had the minority seat under PDP while una were left with crumbs

owobokiri:
Only the suicidals will vote for APC in the former Eastern Nigeria.
Talk of PDP and I might listen. But APC!? Lol . You're living in a fools paradise..

Lol I keep laughing when I hear or read nyamuri flat.heads saying SS is lockdown for Pandora

Delta, CR, Bayelsa and Edo are States 3 candidates will get 25%

muykem:
Tinubu has a better chance to have a good show in South South. Apart from Akwa Ibom, with little more effort and compromise here and there, the results will be interesting.

The ruling party, the All Progressives Congress, APC, and its presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed are currently making a fresh push into the South-south, a region considered to be the stronghold of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

In the past couple of weeks, Tinubu and his party have visited the region three times. Two weeks ago, Tinubu held a rally in Asaba, the Delta State capital, only to return a few days back to the creek, Gbaramatu Kingdom. Two days ago, he was back again to Yenagoa for another rally.

Since 1999, the region has consistently voted for the PDP, with five out of six governors being members of the opposition party, PDP. However, with the election now a three horse race, the ruling party now fancy itself getting a piece of the cake in the region.

Because of the tight nature of the presidential race, many are already predicting a possible run-off in a second ballot because they believe none of the candidates will get the required constitutional highest votes cast and the 25% in 24 States as provided by the 1999 constitution.

Mr Tinubu is expected to take the Southwest regions and his running mate, Kashim Shattima is expected to pull strong numbers in the northeast, especially Borno, Yobe and Gombe States.

In the Northcentral, Kwara, Kogi and Niger State are places where the candidate of the APC is expected to perform well. In Nasarawa, the party is counting on the Chairman of the Party, Abdulahi Adamu, former Governor Tanko Almakura and Governor Sule Adbulahi to deliver a good outing. However, Nasarawa has been a difficult State for the ruling party.

The Muslim/Muslim ticket may cause the party to struggle in Plateau State, despite Governor Simon Lalong being the Director-General of the APC campaign council. In Benue State, the party is counting on the ‘Yes Father’ wave and the ongoing crisis in the PDP, as governor Samuel Ortom is a member of the G-5 governors. Despite these, Tinubu is expected to get the 25% requirement in the region.

In the Northwest, Mr Tinubu is counting on the six APC governors to deliver the votes; however, without Buhari on the ballot, the region has become a battleground between him, Rabiu Kwankwaso of New Nigeria Peoples Party, and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. Despite this, Mr Tinubu is expected to get the required 25% in all the Northwest states.

Going by this analysis, to get the required 25% in 25 States, six in Southwest, six in Northcentral, seven in Northwest plus three in Northeast, that gives 23 States already. There is the possibility of getting the figure in Bauchi, Adamawa and Taraba States, including the FCT.

Tinubu is also counting on APC governors in the Southeast, David Umahi and Hope Uzodinma to give a good outing in their States. In Abia State, Tinubu is also counting on Orji Uzor Kalu, Hon Nkeiruka Onyejeocha and Ben Kalu to pull a good number in Abia North senatorial district.

However, it appears that the ruling Party is not ready to take the gamble, and is now pushing for it.

So far, the strategy has been about leveraging on strong candidates in States. It would be recalled that Babachir Lawal, the leader of the APC Northern Christians had accused Tinubu of not visiting Southeast during the primaries because he considered it a waste of money.

And in the past couple of days, he has been visiting States where they have strong candidates for elections or governors.

“We intend to shock people in the Southsouth. It is a three-horse race between Obi, Atiku and Asiwaju (Tinubu). We are the dark-horse here. In Delta State, Ifeanyi Okowa is in a supremacy battle with James Ibori over the governorship ticket. We have a strong governorship candidate, Senate President Ovie Omo-Agege,” Ibrahim Abiodun, a member of Tinubu Grassroots Campaign told DAILY POST.

In Edo State, APC remains popular in Edo North senatorial district- the district where Adams Oshiomhole is running for a senatorial seat. In a three-horse race, Tinubu will be counting on achieving two things, get the 25% of the vote cast, and hope the PDP is unable to get bloc votes because the Obidient movement also fancies itself in the State.

Also, in Delta State, Tinubu appears to be willing to deploy enough resources in the State given the crack in the PDP, particularly the ongoing struggle for the control of the structure of party in Delta State. Okowa is the running mate to Atiku Abubakar, but the fight with Ibori has balkanized the PDP in the State, hence, the ruling party is willing to take advantage of the crack.

In Bayelsa State, the APC is counting on the popularity of David Lyon, who won the last governorship election but was sacked by the Supreme Court over the certificate of his running mate, Degi Eremienyo. Mr Tinubu and his party already held a rally in the State

Also, there is the former President Goodluck Jonathan’s factor, who is reportedly angry with the PDP over how the party has treated him with disrespect since he left office. According to reports, Mr Jonathan turned down the plea by Atiku for him to intervene in the G-5 governors’ rebellion.

In Cross River, Tinubu is counting on Governor Ben Ayade to give a good outing for him in the State. A 25% of the votes cast could also be possible, more so, in a three-horse race, the party fancy its chances.

Rivers State is another place of hope for Tinubu and the ruling party. Governor Nyesome Wike remains adamant that the National Chairman of the PDP, Iyorchia Ayu must go, and he has refused to campaign for Atiku.

Although the APC is in disarray due to an internal crisis, however, it would be recalled that Tinubu and the G-5 governors secretly met in London, the United Kingdom weeks days ago. It remains unknown if the party will be able to take advantage of the PDP national crisis.

Except for Akwa-Ibom, Tinubu appears to have a plan to get a good outing in the Southsouth.

http:///627d5e26221006en_ng?link=1&client=news

This is the population of Ebonyi and Imo State combined

With underwhelming outing in Nasarawa State, and below par rally in Oyo.. Pandora Him Tu Lie has abandoned his campaign

The method now is to gate crash into churches hosting an event as a decoy

With underwhelming outing in Nasarawa State, and below par rally in Oyo.. Pandora Him Tu Lie has abandoned his campaign

Mutumina, Allah ya sabo muna mafi alkhairi kawai! Amma your support for Atiku na sonkai ne.. da Atiku dan amana ne da an sosa kawai Buhari, kwankwasso etc even in the north his struggling for support, that's show u how bad he is

Atiku azzalumi ne da munafiki.. yafi son en kudu akan mu

Raheeqilmaktoom:
Atiku yai co-founding InTels, ba privitizing akai ya saya ba.

Maganan kawo su elrufai da ribadu da goje da ngozi da sauransu kuma, wannan is documented history, kai bincike akai.