₦airaland Forum

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Ordinarily, I should not comment on this thread since Ubah has not mentioned how he would go about it. However, for the benefit of those who might get swayed by his cheap claims, I'll say something.
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The exchange rate (PRICE of dollars) is determined primarily by SUPPLY of dollars (through exports, FDIs, foreign borrowing, etc) and DEMAND for dollars (through imports, payments of foreign school fees/medical bills, online purchases, etc). The NET flow of these transactions determine the Balance of Payments (BOP) account with the Central Bank. Elementary economics tells us that when demand exceeds supply, prices go up!
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Coming back to Nigeria, it is well known that oil accounts for 95% of our FX earnings. As oil prices have collapsed from ~$100 in 2014 to ~$30, our supply of dollars has dropped tremendously. This is even worse when one considers that our cost of oil production is ~$20/bbl, meaning that our dollar revenue from oil has dropped from ~$80/bbl to ~$10/bbl. On the demand side, the request for imports are increasing. With such supply shock and increasing demand, there is only one way for the exchange rate to go. This is basic economics and has nothing to do with Emefiele or Buhari, except you are simply being mischievous or grossly ignorant.
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When oil collapsed from around $147 to $38 due to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Nigeria had a Foreign Reserve of ~$62bn. The then CBN Governor had to spend ~$20bn from the Reserves to meet import demand thereby preventing devaluation/depreciation. Between 2011 & 2014, oil price was above $100, meaning that the administration never had a dollar supply problem and so could maintain a stable exchange rate. Fast forward to late 2014 when oil prices slid to ~$60, the CBN had to devalue the Naira twice within a period of 6 months (Nov 2014 & Feb 2015) because the Reserves were too low (<$35bn) to deplete to support imports. Now in 2016, oil prices are around $30/bbl while FX Reserves is less than $28bn. The supply shock has reached unprecedented levels, yet demand for imports has not decreased. There is absolutely no way that the exchange rate can stay below N250/$. Simple economics says that price will continue to move till a new equilibrium is reached where demand equates supply.
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There is no policy from Emefiele, Soludo, Greenspan, Bernanke or any other Central Bank governor that can strengthen the Naira in the near term. Except we want to completely deplete the Reserves or go to the IMF to borrow SDRs just to meet import demands. Brace up folks, if oil price collapses to $20 (thereby increasing the supply shock) the exchange rate shall hit N1000/$ and I repeat, this has nothing to do with Emefiele or Buhari but simply economic forces. The only thing that can save the Naira is either for SUPPLY of dollars to increase (through high oil price) or DEMAND to reduce. Since we do not have control over the supply side, we can at least focus on managing the demand side.
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So Mr Ifeanyi Ubah, you have zero knowledge on what you are talking about. With all the money you made from the last government, you can start by building a refinery or some other manufacturing facility (like Dangote) to help us substitute for imports. That would help the Naira more than you seeking cheap consultancy from the government. Or except you want to broker a deal for the government to give amnesty to your Dasuki-Gate friends, so they can bring out stashed up dollars from soakaways and graveyards to support the economy.

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