₦airaland Forum

Acekidc4:
Good but at the same time, try to pay your debts

Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) has issued a stern warning to loan apps and businesses that harass and intimidate Nigerians over unpaid loans.

In a bold move to protect consumers, the FCCPC has urged Nigerians to report any instances of harassment or intimidation by these loan apps and businesses.

The FCCPC’s directive comes amidst growing concerns about the tactics used by some loan apps and businesses to recover debts from customers.

Many Nigerians have reported being subjected to threatening messages, calls, and even social media shaming by these loan apps and businesses.

In a statement, the FCCPC emphasized that “no consumer should live in fear” and that it is committed to protecting the rights of Nigerians from unfair and deceptive practices. The commission warned loan apps and businesses that they will face severe consequences if they continue to engage in harassing and intimidating behavior.

The FCCPC emphasized that “no consumer should live in fear” and that it is committed to protecting the rights of Nigerians from unfair and deceptive practices

The FCCPC has encouraged Nigerians to report any instances of harassment or intimidation by loan apps and businesses to its office. The commission has also assured that it will take prompt action to address these complaints and bring perpetrators to book.

This move by the FCCPC is a welcome relief to many Nigerians who have been victims of loan sharks and harassing loan apps. It is a clear indication that the government is committed to protecting the rights of consumers and promoting fair business practices in the country.

Nigerians are advised to report any instances of harassment or intimidation by loan apps and businesses to the FCCPC through its website or social media channels.

The commission can also be reached through its toll-free line or by visiting its office in person.

By reporting these instances, Nigerians can help the FCCPC to crack down on loan sharks and harassing loan apps, and create a safer and more secure environment for consumers to access credit and other financial services.

NewDigitalWorld:
A US judge temporarily halted President Donald Trump's order to freeze hundreds of billions of dollars in federal grants and loans, minutes before it was set to come into effect on Tuesday.

Judge Loren AliKhan's order to pause the plan until next Monday at 17:00 EST (22:00 GMT) came in response to a lawsuit filed earlier in the day by a group of organisations representing grant recipients.

The lawsuit claims the White House's temporary freezing of already approved funding violates the law.

In the hours before the order was due to take effect, there was widespread confusion about which agencies and programmes would be impacted.

The acting head of the White House budget office had instructed agencies to "temporarily pause all activities related to obligations or disbursement of all federal financial assistance".

It said the move was intended to give the new administration time to assess what grants and loans were in step with their agenda.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump's plan to pause billions of dollars in US government funding was about being "good stewards of tax dollars".

Speaking to reporters in her first ever briefing, she said the pause in funding would allow governments to cut back spending for "woke" gender issues and diversity programmes.

But it prompted confusion, as well as anger from opposition figures, on Tuesday as those who receive federal loans and grants - such as non-profits and research organisations - reckoned with the reality of swiftly losing funding.

Judge AliKhan on Tuesday said she was issuing a brief stay that would "preserve the status quo" until she can hold an oral argument, now set for Monday morning.

The White House directive could have impacted billions of dollars meant for federal programmes, from disaster relief to cancer research.

In a post on X, Diane Yentel, the president of the National Council of Nonprofits, the organisation that brought the lawsuit, celebrated the ruling.

"Our lawsuit was successful - the US district court is blocking OMB (Office of Management and Budget) from moving forward on its reckless plan to halt federal funding," she wrote.

In the lawsuit, her organisation wrote that Trump's order seeks to "eradicate essentially all federal grant programs".

It argues that Trump's order is "devoid of any legal basis or the barest rationale" and will have ripple effects throughout the entire United States and beyond.

This is separate from an action by a coalition of Democratic states who filed a lawsuit later on Tuesday to block the order, calling it unconstitutional.

Stephen Miller, the White House's deputy chief of staff, also defended the directive before the judge's decision was announced, telling reporters that this would allow the government to get "credit control".

"It does not impact any federal programmes that Americans rely on," he said, answering a question about whether "Meals on Wheels" food delivery programme would be affected.

On Tuesday, several states reported issues accessing funds through Medicaid, a government health insurance programme for low-income people. The White House later said the programme would not be affected and that the problem would be resolved soon.

It also said Social Security benefits would not be affected, nor would any programme "that provides direct benefits to individuals", including Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, known as SNAP or food stamps.

In a letter to the White House, top Democrats expressed "extreme alarm" about the plan to pause funding.

"The scope of what you are ordering is breathtaking, unprecedented, and will have devastating consequences across the country," wrote Washington Senator Patty Murray and Connecticut Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro.

Democratic minority leader of the US Senate, Chuck Schumer, said the move would cause missed payrolls and rent payments, and cause "chaos".

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2q4dqj2zeo

Roboto11:
If he had been president he wouldn't be in jail.

Next time, use your head.

Also at the meeting were World Bank President Ajay Banga and the President of the African Development Bank Group, Akinwunmi Adesina.

President Bola Tinubu on Tuesday met with Yemi Osinbajo, one of his main challengers for his party’s presidential ticket for the 2023 presidential election.

The two men met in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, on the sidelines of Mission 300 Africa Energy Summit.

Mr Osinbajo, Nigeria’s former vice president, served as justice commissioner in Lagos when Mr Tinubu was governor of the state (1999-2007). Mr Tinubu is also believed to have played a prominent role in Mr Osinbajo becoming the vice presidential candidate of the APC in the 2015 election.

Both men, however, slugged it out for the APC presidential ticket in 2023 and Mr Osinbajo has not been active in the APC since the new president was sworn in.

Photos of their meeting in Tanzania was shared by a former presidential aide, Tolu Ogunlesi, on Facebook.

Also at the meeting were World Bank President Ajay Banga and the President of the African Development Bank Group, Akinwunmi Adesina.

The two-day summit is being hosted by the government of Tanzania, the African Union, the African Development Bank Group and the World Bank Group.

The Nigerian leader is expected to deliver a national statement reaffirming Nigeria’s commitment to achieving universal access to energy and its leadership role in Africa’s energy sector.

He will also highlight Nigeria’s ongoing clean energy initiatives and its strategy to drive integrated energy delivery on the continent, his office said.

"I hate that I voted for Trump" Latina woman breaks down in tears as she reveals fears for her family over immigration raids ( video).

A Latina woman has gone viral after she released a video crying and expressing regrets about voting for Donald Trump.

Following his inauguration on Jan. 20, 2025, President Donald Trump signed several executive orders designed to advance his immigration agenda.

The orders include: Ending Birthright Citizenship, Enhanced Vetting, Creating “Homeland Security Task Forces”, Ending Birthright Citizenship

As U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) began rounding up illegal immigrants for deportation, a Latina woman who voted for Trump took to her TikTok to cry out.

She said: "This is so crazy that we voted for Trump. We trust him with the words that he promised us Latinos.

"This is crazy that starting next week, multiple cities will be hitting immigration.

"That is so crazy that multiple people are scared to go to work.

"Where I work at, a lot of Latinos did not go to work and that's crazy because we have a living too."

She turned her camera to show Trump speaking on TV then she said: "I hate that I voted for him. Now I'm so scared for my family and y'all's families.

"Y'all, we need to come together and do something about this."

A number of her followers hit back at her, telling her that Trump is doing exactly what he promised during campaign.

Trump won the support of 46 percent of Latino voters, the most of any Republican presidential candidate in recent history.

“Us Latinos voted for Trump and thought he would keep his word. Now we’re afraid to go to work” pic.twitter.com/n3enS0IhgN

— chris evans (@notcapnamerica) January 25, 2025

President Donald Trump said he would ask Saudi Arabia and other Opec nations to "bring down the cost of oil" and doubled-down on his threat to use tariffs.

In a speech to executives at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, the US president said he was 'surprised' that Opec hadn't brought down the price of oil before the elections.

"Right now the price is high enough that that war will continue," he said, referring to the Russia-Ukraine war and suggesting that the higher oil price was helping to sustain funding for the conflict in Moscow.

"You gotta bring down the oil price, that will end that war. You could end that war," he added

The president's comments on the oil price came after he spoke to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Wednesday. According to Saudi State media Bin Salman pledged to invest as much as $600bn in the US over the next four years, however this figure was not mentioned in the White House statement after the call.

Despite the cordial exchange, Trump said he would be asking "the Crown Prince, who's a fantastic guy, to round it out to around $1tn".

The price of crude fell by 1% following Trump's comments.

According to David Oxley, Chief Climate and Commodities Economist at Capital Economics these comments are in keeping with Trump's desire for lower gasoline prices.

"[It's] his clear intention to use energy as leverage over Russia to end the war in Ukraine. That said, lower oil prices will certainly not incentivise US oil producers to "drill, baby, drill" – particularly in high-cost Alaska."

"Of course, Saudi Arabia would not be guaranteed to heed a request by President Trump to expand oil production and to bring down global oil prices."

The US president's appearance via video at the World Economic Forum marked his first address to a global audience since his inauguration earlier this week.

He used the platform to insist that companies around the world manufacture their products in the US or face bruising tariffs on imported goods entering the American market.

The president also said he would demand an immediate drop in interest rates, which he said had led to deeper deficits and resulted in what he described as economic calamity under the tenure of his predecessor, President Joe Biden.

"This begins with confronting the economic chaos caused by the failed policies of the last administration," he said.

"Over the past four years, our government racked up $8 trillion in wasteful deficit spending and inflicted nation wrecking energy restrictions, crippling regulations and hidden taxes like never before."

Trump also spoke of "good, clean, coal" to power data centres needed for artificial intelligence. "We need double the energy we currently have in the US, for AI to be as big as we want to have it," he said, adding that he would use emergency decrees to speed the construction of new power plants.

"Nothing can destroy coal — not the weather, not a bomb, nothing," said Trump.

A former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), retired Lt Gen. Jeremiah Useni, is dead.

He passed away on Thursday at the age of 82 after a protracted illness.

His death was announced in a statement issued in Jos by Gyang Bere, the Director of Press and Public Affairs to Plateau State governor, Caleb Mutfwang.

He described the of the former Minister and Quarter Master General of the Nigerian Army as a tremendous loss not only to his immediate family but also to the Nigerian Armed Forces, Plateau State, and the entire nation.

Highlighting the roles played by the late army general, Governor Mutfwang noted that he left an indelible mark on Nigeria’s security and political landscape with his tireless efforts to promote peace and security, especially in Northern Nigeria and Plateau State.

The governor prayed that God grants the family, Plateau state, and the nation the strength and fortitude to bear the irreplaceable loss, and also asked for God’s divine presence to comfort and provide solace in the days ahead.

TossTos:
They should testify to it and anyone found guilty should be make to pay back every amount of money he looted from the $6b..

NewDigitalWorld:
The year 2025 promises to be one of moderation for the naira and inflation as analysts have predicted that the Nigerian economy will witness a steady ride unlike the rampant pains occasioned by rising prices, weak currency in the outgone year.

The naira which closed 2024 losing about 41 percent of its value and for most of the year was accorded as one of the worst performing currencies by World Bank and Bloomberg has begun to strengthen.

The local currency appreciated by N125 to a dollar one month after the launch of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS), according to a BusinessDay’s report with analysts saying the gains might be an indication that the naira’s rebound journey might just have begun.

Prices in Africa’s most populous nation climbed to a three decade high of 34.6 percent in November and in an effort to control fast rising prices, the central bank raises key interest rates to 27.5 percent.

Here are the projections:

• Afrinvest Research

Analysts at Afrinvest Research see the Nigerian naira depreciate to a weighted fair value of N1,804.45 this year as tendency of volatility persists while inflation is predicted to slow to 24.7 percent at a base case scenario.

“Our prognosis is hinged on the belief that the CBN would be constrained from adequately meeting market demand on a sustained basis, as the recent FX reserves accretion were largely driven by inflows from inorganic sources, including those with stringent conditions on usability,” the analysts said.

• Cardinalstone Research

Cardinalstone research analysts, in their outlook forecast that Nigerians are likely to contend with inflation printing at 30.0 percent again in 2025 after the 33.0 percent average of 2024, as most inflationary drivers are likely to be stable rather than improve.

“However, on the more comforting front, year end inflation is likely to print at 26.2% vs 35.1% projected this year. Notably, currency movement, which has contributed about 20.0% – 30.0% to inflation in the last few years, is likely to be relatively stable in 2025,” the analysts said.

It places the naira’s fair value at approximately N1,720.88/$ for 2025 on the back of the introduction of the EFEMS platform, increasing foreign portfolio inflows, greater access to dollar-denominated debt, rising FX reserves, and a positive current account balance.

• Veriv Africa

Analysts at Veriv Africa said inflation will remain stubbornly high in 2025, although it is expected to ease moderately compared to 2024. It however projects that the naira will settle at N1,790 per US dollar at the parallel market.

“The inflation rate is projected to average 31.81% in a bull case scenario, 34.52% in a base case scenario, and 37.16% in a bear case scenario. This will be a 1.75% improvement (base case) from an estimated average of 32.77% in 2024.”
‍
The sustained inflationary pressure is to be driven by recurring challenges such as currency depreciation, food inflation due to insecurity and climate change impact as flooding, high energy costs, and elevated logistics costs.

• Bismarck Rewane

Bismarck Rewane, a renowned economist and CEO of Financial Derivatives Company said inflation which has been punishing household incomes and eroding business gains may drop by the second half of the year but predicted that prices will quicken to 35.4 percent in December.

“The moderation in inflation is not going to be as low as we expected. We’re going to be seeing 25 or 27 percent by the end of the year with some luck.”

Rewane explained that since prices are still high, the monetary policymakers may not begin lowering borrowing costs, stating that with inflation cooling later in the year interest rates may begin to slow.

• Biodun Adedipe

In his outlook, Biodun Adedipe, founder and chief consultant at B.Adedipe Associates Limited however expects inflation to drop to 33 percent by the end of 2024 while naira averages 2025 at N1,574.4/$1.

“The naira will lose value but very moderately. We estimate the exchange rate at N1,574.4/$1. MPR to be moderated as inflation is expected to end 2024 at 33 percent and 27 percent in 2025,” the leading economist said.

Source: https://businessday.ng/news/article/herere-five-projections-of-the-naira-inflation-in-2025/

Last year was tough for companies in Africa’s fourth biggest economy due to the spike in diesel prices, combined with foreign exchange losses and high input costs. Only 10 companies made the list of the trillionaire club.

However, 2025 brings glimmers of hope to the economy as 13 companies stand out with a market valuation of over N1 trillion, making them the most valuable companies in Nigeria and signifying its growing global influence.

BusinessDay analysis of the company results of the top 30 companies on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), popularly known as the ‘NGX30’, revealed that these firms combined market capitalisation amounted to N44.4 trillion.

Top on the list is Airtel Africa with N8.1 trillion, followed by BUA Foods with a market valuation of N7.5 trillion, and Dangote Cement with N6.8 trillion value.

Market capitalisation is the value of a company traded on the stock market, calculated by multiplying the total number of shares by the present share price. The top three firms that recorded high valuations saw significant growth in their share price.

Airtel Africa reported a 7.8 percent growth in its share price to N2,156.90 at the end of trading on January 17, 2025, from N2000 reported in the same period last year.

BUA Foods also reported a 72.9 percent increase in its share price while Dangote Cement’s share price fell by 11.6 percent during the period surveyed.

These companies, spanning industries from telecommunications to consumer goods, banking industrial goods, and energy owe their success to a combination of innovation, strategic leadership, and a keen understanding of the Nigerian and African markets.

According to the National Gross Domestic third quarter report, Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.46 percent (year-on-year) in the service sector. However, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is planning to rebase Nigeria’s GDP and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to ensure our economic indicators are accurate, reflecting the updated structure of our economy.

The rebasing of the figure has shown significant structural changes in Nigeria’s economy, with crop production, trade, and real estate emerging as the three largest contributors to the economy.

Telecommunications, crude petroleum and natural gas, construction, food beverages, and tobacco made the top seven.

Crude oil and natural gas processing has been displaced by real estate from being the third economic activity, placing it at the fifth position.

Also, food beverages, and tobacco ranks 7th, construction enters as the 6th largest, while public administration is displaced from the top seventh largest.

Market analysts predict that the continued growth of these sectors will inspire investor confidence and drive increased foreign direct investment into Nigeria. Moreover, their leadership in market capitalisation could encourage other sectors to innovate and improve their competitiveness.

Airtel Africa

Airtel Africa’s market capitalisation stands at N8.1 trillion as of Friday. The firm’s share price amounted to N2,156.9 with a trading volume of 640.00 as of January 17, 2025.

The telecommunication which reports its financial in dollars revealed that it recorded total revenue of $2.3 billion in the first half of 2024 from N2.6 billion in the same period of 2023.

Profit after tax stood at N79 million, marking a bounce back to profitability after posting a $13 million net loss in the corresponding period in the previous financial year.

Earnings per share amounted to $0.8 per share from N-1.5 per share in the comparable period.

BUA Foods

BUA Foods’ market capitalisation stands at N7.47 trillion as of Friday. The firm’s share price amounted to N415 with a trading volume of 970,996 as of January 17, 2025.

The consumer goods revenue surged 104 percent to N1.07 trillion from N524.4 billion, while input cost grew to N736.9 billion from N340.6 billion.

Net profit after tax grew by 91 percent to N201.4 billion from N105.6 billion.

BUA Foods’ earnings per share grew to N11.19 per share from N5.87 per share during the period reviewed.

Dangote Cement

Dangote Cement, the multinational cement manufacturer reported a market valuation of N6.8 trillion as of Friday. The firm’s share price amounted to N400 with a trading volume of 6,639,944 as of January 17, 2025.

In its nine months financials, the firm reported N2.5 trillion in revenue largely fueled by increased local market sales.

After-tax profit during the period increased by a single-digit 0.55 percent to N279.09 billion from N277.5 billion.

The firm’s earnings per share rose to N16.55 from N16.08.

MTN Nigeria

MTN Nigeria’s market capitalisation stands at N4.9 trillion as of Friday. The firm’s share price amounted to N with a trading volume of 1,924,392.

As of January 17, 2025.

The telecommunication recorded revenue of N2.37 trillion in the nine months of 2024 from N1.7 trillion in the same period of 2023.

The firm reported a loss after tax of N514 billion from N14.9 billion. Earnings per share amounted to N-24,51 per share from N-0.68 per share in the comparable period.

BUA Cement

BUA Cement’s market capitalisation stands at N3.2 trillion as of Friday. The firm’s share price amounted to N93 with a trading volume of 720,285 as of January 17, 2025.

The cement company recorded a revenue of N583 billion in the 9M’24 from N335 billion in the same period of 2023.

Profit after tax fell to N48.9 billion from N76 billion. BUA Cement’s basic earnings per share stood at N145 per share from N225 per share in the reviewed period.

Geregu Power

The market capitalisation of Geregu Power as of January 17, 2025, stood at N2.9 trillion. The power-generating firm share price amounted to N1,150 with a trading volume of 414.00.

Geregu Power’s after-tax profit rose to N24.1 billion in 9M’24 from N11.3 billion in the corresponding period of 2023. The company’s revenue rose to N112.5 billion from N55.7 billion aided by energy sales.

During the reviewed periods, its finance income rose to N6.5 billion from N6.08 billion in 2023 and its finance cost fell to N7.3 billion from N8.4 billion. The firm’s earnings per share rose to N9.68 from N4.54.

Seplat Energy

Seplat Energy began the year with a market capitisation of N3.35 trillion. The firm’s share price amounted to N5,700 with a trading volume of 3,146.00 as of January 17, 2025.

The energy firm recorded revenue of N1.07 trillion in the 9M’24 from N478 billion in the same period the previous year. Profit after tax increased to N52.7 billion from N46.9 billion.

Zenith Bank

Zenith Bank’s market capitalisation stands at N1.5 trillion as of Friday. The firm’s share price amounted to N46.8 with a trading volume of 7,521,769 as of January 17, 2025.


Zenith Bank Plc has reported a Profit After Tax (PAT) of N827 billion for the nine months ending September 30, 2024 (9M 2024), reflecting a 91 percent year-on-year increase from the N434.2 billion recorded in the same period of 2023.

The bank’s N2.9 trillion gross earnings during 9M 2024 marked a 118 percent YoY growth from the N1.3 trillion gross earnings posted in 9M 2023. It also marks the highest revenue generated by any Nigerian business during the nine months.

Transcorp Hotel

The hospitality company reported a market capitalisation of N1.3 trillion, and its share price amounted to N127.35 with a trading volume of 86,387 as of January 17, 2025.

The after-tax profit of Transcorp Hotel increased to N10.2 billion from N4.1 billion during the period. The firm’s cost of sales rose to N14 billion claiming 28 percent of the company’s revenue.

The company’s finance cost fell to N2.9 in 9M from N2.95 billion while income tax rose to N6.1 billion from N1.4 billion. Earnings per share rose to N100 from N40 in the same period of 2023.

GTCO

Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO), a tier-one bank in Nigeria market valuation rose to N1.7 trillion, its share price amounted to N58 with a trading volume of 65,052,416 as of January 17, 2025

The holding company recorded an after-tax profit of N1.08 trillion in the nine months of 2024 driven by interest income.

GTCO’s interest income grew by 161 percent to N980 billion, compared to N374.5 billion during the same period in 2023.

Nigerian Eurobonds are off to a great start in 2025 as investor confidence in the nation strengthens.

Average yields on Nigerian Eurobonds declined for the first time in three weeks, the first time they have declined since the country returned to the Eurobond market last month.

According to analysts at CSL Stockbrokers, this was driven by stronger-than-expected US economic data, including the Initial Jobless Claims–and a rise in the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

These factors raised investors’ interests across the eurobonds tenures, causing average yield to decline by 0.18 percent last week to 9.49 percent.

Similarly, analysts at Meristem Securities said that the decline was primarily driven by increased buying interest across the curve, as investors sought higher returns in response to improved market sentiment.

Analysts project that the bullish trend will continue this week.

“We expect the bullish sentiment to persist, though participants may adopt a cautious approach as they reassess global macroeconomic conditions,” analysts at CSL Research said.

On December 2 2024, Nigeria had a successful return to the international bond market after a two year hiatus, with subscription four times the intended offer of $1.7 billion.

The issuance was oversubscribed in excess of $9 billion and the federal government eventually took just $2.2 billion across both bonds.

The federal government sold $700 million worth of the 6.5 year Eurobond maturing in 2031 at a coupon rate of 9.625 percent and $1.5 billion of the 10-year tenure at 10.375 percent.

The week of the new issue saw the average yield across all tenures decline to 9.18 percent from 9.66 percent in the prior week in the secondary market.

This was supported by broad-based buying interest across all maturities by the new issuance in over two years.

By the following week ending December 13, the average yield rose to 9.36 percent percent from 9.18 percent in the prior week.

“ This uptick was driven by profit-taking activities following recent bullish trends, compounded by concerns after a 0.10 percent increase in the US inflation to 2.70 percent, and market anticipation of a potential rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting,” analysts at Meristem reported.

Average yields on the foreign bonds increased to 9.64 percent the following week and 9.67 percent by the end of last week in January primarily driven by mild sell-offs across most of the curve.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery retained 13% of Nigeria’s crude oil exports as domestic supply in 2024, according to Reuters.

This raised Nigeria’s domestic share of oil exports from 2 percent in 2023 and slightly cut the country’s exports to Europe.

However, despite being a major net exporter of crude, Nigeria imported 47,000 barrels per day of US oil in 2024. Experts say this is unusual for crude oil exporting countries.

The Dangote refinery, alongside other new refineries that sprung up in the global south, has reportedly altered the global flow of crude amidst sanctions on Russian oil and conflict in the Middle East.

Dangote Refinery imported US oil

The 600,000 bpd capacity Dangote Petroleum refinery contributed to the increased volume of Nigeria’s crude imports from the United States. Nairametrics reported that the Dangote refinery received its first shipment of US WTI in November 2024.

The multiple shipments received from the US by the Dangote refinery boosted Nigeria’s imports from the US in 2024 as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company failed to supply crude oil to the refinery.

Global crude exports declined by 2% in 2024

Reuters reported, quoting shipping data, that the volume of global crude export volume in 2024 declined by 2%, the first dip since the COVID-19 pandemic. This is attributed to weak demand growth and reshuffled trade routes due to conflicts, sanctions, and new pipelines and refineries.

• The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East caused a lot of rerouting of tanker shipments, while sanctions on Russia and Iran forced importers in Europe and South America to seek new suppliers.

• Following the outbreak of Russia’s war with Ukraine, European refiners reduced their imports from Russia while boosting purchases of oil from the U.S. and the Middle East. However, attacks on vessels in the Red Sea due to Israel’s war Gaza led to higher shipping costs from the Middle East, so refiners turned to the U.S. and Guyana.

• Iraq’s exports dropped by 82,000 bpd, while the United Arab Emirates saw a decrease of 35,000 bpd. Meanwhile, Europe increased imports by 162,000 bpd from Guyana and 60,000 bpd from the U.S.

• While Europe and South America turned down Russia’s oil, India and China embraced it.

Other factors that have contributed to the reshuffling of oil trade routes include the expansion of Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline to the country’s west coast, falling oil output in Mexico, and a halt in Libyan oil exports.

Unpredictable 2025

It is hard to predict the global oil market in 2025. Suppliers are doubtful about China’s oil demands in the new year. However, some experts expect demands to rise in India.

Also, more countries are expected to use less oil in the coming years as they turn to gas and renewable energy sources.

In addition, it is not clear whether or not President-elect Donald Trump will relax the sanctions on Iran and Russia.

“This kind of uncertainty and volatility is the new normal – 2019 was the last ‘normal’ year,” Erik Broekhuizen, a marine research and consulting manager at ship brokering firm Poten & Partners told Reuters.

What you should know

• The Dangote Refinery is the largest single-train refinery in Africa and Europe with a capacity to produce 600,000 barrels per day. However, it is not operating at its full capacity yet.

• In addition to domestic supplies, the refinery is also exporting Premium Motor Spirit to various African countries including Cameroon, Angola, Ghana, and South Africa. It also exports diesel and jet fuels to Europe.

• According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s crude oil export was valued at N14,559.56 billion representing 74.98% of total exports in Q2 2024.

Proudlyngwa:
Trump is just making mouth.

Saudi will teach him a lesson that will make him to be impeached

As Nigerians await the National Assembly’s passage of the proposed tax reform bills, Taiwo Oyedele, chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, has listed some of the potential benefits of reforms.

The tax bills, which include Nigeria Tax Bill, Nigeria Tax Administration Bill, Nigeria Revenue Service Establishment Bill, and Joint Revenue Board Establishment Bill, are aimed at addressing the nation’s tax system’s gridlocks such as multiplicity of taxes, fragmentation of revenue administration, and issues with the excessive tax burden on most vulnerable citizens, including small businesses and low-income earners.

The bills, when passed into law, are expected to exempt low-income earners from Pay As You Earn (PAYE), reduce PAYE tax for those earning a monthly salary of N1.7million or less, and keep value added tax (VAT) on food, healthcare, education, electricity generation and transmission at zero percent.

It will also ensure VAT exemption on transportation, renewable energy, CNG, baby products, sanitary towels, rent, fuel products, tax break for wage award and transport subsidy to low-income earners. It will also provide tax incentives for employers to hire more people incrementally than in the previous three years.

“The business person does not need the tax authority’s or government’s permission to claim their VAT. Once you pay VAT and you have the invoice on your own at the end of the month, you deduct that VAT from the VAT that you need to pay,” Oyedele said in a recent X Space, supported by BusinessDay.

Other benefits include: exemption of stamp duties on rent below N10 million, PAYE tax exemption for other rank and armed forces fighting insecurity, friendly tax rules for remote workers and digital nomads, as well as clarity on taxation of digital assets to avoid double taxation and allow deduction for losses.

For small businesses, the law is expected to ensure tax exemption threshold for small businesses with annual turnover of N25 million to N50 million, exemption from company income tax for small businesses (tax at 0%), and zero withholding tax deduction on business income of small businesses.

High income earners will also benefit from the bill when passed into law, as it seeks VAT exemption on purchase of real estate, clarity on taxation of benefit in kind and limit of taxable accommodation benefit to 20 percent of annual income, with an exemption of tax on sale of shares up to N150 million and gains not exceeding N10 million.

For the states which produce more zero-VAT-rated products, he emphasised that companies paying tax by consumption data will not affect them as the goal is to make Nigeria produce more than it consumes.

According to Oyedele, “We are collecting both consumption data and production data so that nobody is disadvantaged as a result of producing goods that are considered exempt or zero-rated.”

Oyedele further said, “People are buying sugar to do all manners of things. You know, people are buying fast-moving consumer products. They are paying for electricity. So, every state in Nigeria, regardless of what you’re producing, is also consuming.”

Presco Plc, Nigeria’s biggest palm oil maker, is set to raise N100 billion in Series 1 of its N150 billion bond programme. This would mark the largest corporate bond issuance in the industry. The bond will have a 7-year tenure with a yield range of 23.25 percent to 23.75 percent.

Presco Plc boasts a strong credit profile, with an Aa rating from Agusto & Co. and an A- rating from GCR.

This bond issuance represents Presco Plc’s second venture into the capital market, following the successful raising of N34.5 billion in 2022 under Series 1 of its N50 billion issuance programme. That issuance was also a 7-year bond, carrying a coupon rate of 12.85 percent.

Before Presco’s latest issuance, some of the largest corporate bond offerings included Dangote Group’s N112.42 billion raise in December 2022 through its SPV, Dangote Industries Funding Plc, under Series 2 of its ₦300 billion Bond Issuance Programme. Similarly, MTN Nigeria secured ₦115 billion in September 2022 through Series 1 of its ₦200 billion bond issuance programme.

Amid Nigeria’s high-interest monetary environment since 2023, corporate issuers have increasingly turned to shorter-tenured commercial papers, enabling them to offer competitively high yield rates without the extended commitment of longer-term bonds. In 2024, corporate bond issuances in Nigeria totalled N69.37 billion, a significant decline compared to the ₦126 billion issued in 2023.

Presco Plc decision to raise N100 billion reflects a renewed confidence in Nigeria’s capital markets. This strategic move has the potential to positively influence corporate sentiment toward the capital markets, especially after 2024, when many corporations hesitated to tap into the market due to the high yields required to remain competitive.

Presco’s solid fundamentals for 2024 also positions the company as a standout player in Nigeria’s corporate landscape. With one of the highest returns on equity in the country in 2024 and a projected triple-digit growth in net profit, Presco is on a trajectory of robust financial performance, further reinforcing its appeal to institutional and individual investors.

NewDigitalWorld:
…Analysts expect bearish global market

As Donald Trump prepares to become America’s 47th president on January 20, the potential resurgence of United States’ shale oil industry will reopen the 2014 scars for Nigeria and some of the biggest oil producers in the world as they seek to support prices and reduce oversupply.

The resurging shale oil production will be scary for Nigeria and most OPEC countries who went into recession after Shale caused a supply glut that sent oil prices crashing to a historic low in mid-2014, making the US the largest commodity producer.

Unlike in 2014, US shale is growing again. But the growth is not for the sake of production alone, it is also for consistent shareholder returns, positive free cash flow, and a smaller environmental footprint.

Global data surveyed by BusinessDay showed the US shale patch is drilling, but it is drilling because it wants to distribute more profits to shareholders.

“It has made huge progress in capital discipline and efficiency gains and is getting more bang for its buck. Priorities are now returns to investors and financial frames capable of withstanding oil price volatility,” said Sarah Sheffield, an International energy analyst familiar with the US market.

This relentless drilling for higher production has been the shale industry’s modus operandi for a decade before COVID and the demand and market crash.

Until 2020, many smaller producers sought to maximise output and price realisations whenever oil was heading higher.

But as the industry matured and balance sheets and market valuations strengthened after the record-high earnings of 2022, a wave of consolidation began in 2023. The big companies, which now control a much larger part of the US shale patch, are looking to become bigger by adding premier assets of the takeover targets to their portfolios.

“Shale has redrawn the map of world oil in a way most people don’t seem to understand,” said Daniel Yergin, vice-chair of S&P Global and a Pulitzer Prize-winning energy historian. “It has changed not only the supply-demand balance but it has changed the geopolitical balance and the psychological balance.”

Two decades ago, the US produced about 7 million barrels a day (bpd) of petroleum and consumed 21 million. Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, which send oil through the Strait of Hormuz, were among the US’s most important foreign suppliers. Now the US produces almost 20 million bpd of petroleum, roughly on par with consumption.

Imports from the Gulf have plummeted, and the US became a net oil exporter for the first time in 2019. The prolific Permian Basin shale of Texas and New Mexico pump more oil than Kuwait, Iraq or the UAE, three of the Organisation of Petroleum Producing Countries (OPEC) powerhouses.

Rising shale supplies also helped keep the lights on in Europe following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with shipments of US’s liquefied natural gas, previously labelled “molecules of US freedom” by the previous Trump administration helping to wean the continent off Russian piped supplies.

Trump has repeatedly vowed that he’ll push shale producers to ramp up output, even if it means operators “drill themselves out of business” in his new administration kicking off on January 20.

For most producers, “drill, baby, drill” will depend on the oil price signals, drilling economics, and market fundamentals of supply and demand.

Chevron expects its upstream spending next year to be about $13 billion, of which roughly two-thirds will go to develop its US portfolio.

“Permian Basin spend is lower than the 2024 budget and anticipated to be between $4.5 and $5.0 billion as production growth is reduced in favor of free cash flow,” Chevron said.

A global industry survey showed public companies operating in the Permian have boosted productivity and efficiency and are doing more with less after years of perfecting operations and expertise in drilling.

Despite a decline in active drilling rigs over the past two years, “increased rates of production from new completions are offsetting existing wells’ production declines and leading to higher crude oil and natural gas output,” the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said.

“These productivity increases indicate significant efficiency gains and technological advancements in the drilling and completion process.”

Bearish oil market expected

With more crude oil expected from shale, most analysts and investment banks say the oil market will see a surplus next year even if OPEC+ begins to unwind its production cuts in April 2025 as planned.

“For now, we expect the oil market to be in surplus next year – although much will depend on OPEC+ production policy,” ING commodities strategists, Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, wrote in a recent note.

Oil demand growth will stay “fairly modest” in 2025 due to both cyclical and structural factors, the strategists said.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has long been predicting a large surplus in 2025.

Even if OPEC+ keeps its oil production as it is for the whole of 2025, there would still be a surplus in supply of 950,000 bpd next year, the IEA said in its monthly report last week.

If OPEC+ does begin unwinding the voluntary cuts from the end of March 2025, this glut will swell to 1.4 million bpd, according to the agency.

Global oil demand is set to rise by 1.1 million bpd next year, but it wouldn’t be able to absorb all the non-OPEC+ growth in supply coming mainly from the United States, Brazil, and Guyana, the IEA said.

“In addition, we see another year of strong non-OPEC supply growth while OPEC still sits on a significant amount of spare production capacity, which should continue to provide comfort to the market,” it added.

Implications for Nigeria

The shale boom has upended the global market, turning the United States from a keen buyer of Nigerian oil to an aggressive competitor.

If the shale boom or revolution grounds to a halt, it will increase supply in the global oil market, a development that will automatically lead to lower oil prices, which would hurt Nigeria’s economy.

Prolonged low oil prices could impact Nigeria’s budget stability and government spending, with knock-on effects on inflation and economic growth, as Nigeria heavily relies on oil exports for government revenue and foreign exchange.

President Bola Tinubu is proposing an N47.9 trillion 2025 budget with at least 60 percent going to recurrent expenditure (N14.2 trillion) and debt services (N15.3 trillion), even as government spending continues to outpace revenue.

The federal government dreams of raising N19.60 trillion or 56 percent of its revenues from the oil sector and N15.22 trillion or 43 percent of total revenues from non-oil sources.

This indicates that it has to earn more money. Oil is a major source of income for Nigeria. In the budget, the government has planned with the anticipation that oil will sell above $75 per barrel and Nigeria would produce at least 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd).

“Reduced oil revenue could lead to a chain reaction impacting not only the government’s budget but also other industries and households reliant on oil-sector jobs,” Aisha Mohammed, an energy analyst at the Lagos-based Centre for Development Studies, said.

Source: https://businessday.ng/energy/article/shale-oil-prospects-threaten-nigerias-revenue-target/

The exchange rate between the naira and the dollar ended the year at N1,535/$1 representing a 40.9% depreciation for 2024.

The official exchange rate between the naira and dollar closed in 2023 at N907.11/$1 thus depreciating by 40.9% for the year which compares to a 49.1% devaluation at the end of 2023.

Nigeria introduced several foreign exchange policies in 2024 as the central bank expanded on market-friendly forex policies to attract foreign investors.

Meanwhile, on the parallel market where the exchange rate is sold unofficially, the naira exchanged for N1,660 to the dollar when compared to N1,215/$ according to Nairametrics tracking records. This represents a 26.8% depreciation.

The NFEM rate and the weighted average rates both closed at N1535.8 and N1536.5 respectively.

Despite the 40.9% depreciation recorded during the year, the exchange rate has remained mostly within the 5-10% range when compared to the N1,45/$1 exchange rate recorded at the end of January 2024.

Data from the apex bank also shows the external reserves as of 30th December 2024 was $40.8 billion representing a 24% increase from the $32.9 billion it closed at the end of 2023.

Year of Forex policies

In 2024, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) introduced several policies aimed at addressing forex challenges and stabilizing the Naira. Early in the year, CBN Governor Cardoso emphasized that the Naira was undervalued and called for genuine price discovery.

By January 31, the Naira appreciated to N1,455.59/$1, supported by CBN’s clampdown on forex speculation and partial clearance of airlines’ FX claims.

February saw further reforms, including the discontinuation of the ±2.5% cap on interbank FX transactions, signaling a gradual move towards a free-floating exchange rate. Additionally, the EFCC was tasked with curbing dollarization and Naira mutilation.

In March, the Federal Government fined Binance $10 billion for forex violations, while the CBN revoked the licenses of 4,173 Bureau De Change (BDC) operators to tighten forex management. The Naira rebounded significantly during the month, recording its best performance in five years.

However, April brought mixed results, with the Naira depreciating by 5.8% after an initial appreciation to N980/$1 at the BDCs. The CBN also banned foreign currency collateral for Naira loans and created a remittance task force to enhance inflows.

By mid-year, the CBN introduced new guidelines for BDCs, increasing the capital requirement to ₦2 billion and giving operators six months to comply. Despite these measures, forex challenges persisted, with the Naira closing May at N1,485.99/$1 and dropping further in July to N1,611/$1.

Efforts to boost forex liquidity continued with the reintroduction of RDAs and auctions in August, alongside increased remittance inflows and a $500 million domestic dollar bond issuance.

In November 2024, the Federal Government launched a nine-month window allowing Nigerians to deposit undisclosed foreign currencies in banks, as part of efforts to improve forex inflows.

Concurrently, the CBN granted banks approval to trade idle FX deposits from designated domiciliary accounts and introduced new FX trading guidelines, including a $100,000 minimum trade mandate. To further stabilize the forex market, Governor Cardoso unveiled an FX matching system designed to address the Naira’s valuation challenges.

CBN overhauled FX market rules and issued new guidelines, allowing BDCs to buy forex directly from authorized dealers.

The CBN also overhauled forex market rules in December and issued new guidelines, also permitting BDCs to purchase up to $25,000 weekly from NFEM.

Despite these interventions, the Naira remained one of the worst-performing currencies in Sub-Saharan Africa, reflecting the ongoing challenges in achieving forex stability.