₦airaland Forum

NVDA is up 4%.
Over 194.8 million shares traded today at $120/share; an equivalent of $23.8 billion!😳
In this market, volume speaks louder than words.😁

RUN was recommended as a swing trade when it was $17.
It sung up to $21 before coming back down to $18 now.
There’s another trip to around $21 building up again.
Enjoy the swing!

Another stock I was looking at after LWAY last month has jumped from $2.70 then on the 19th of August to $4.01 today!
Time to wait for a pull back and dive in for a long term hold.
It’s a fundamentally sound penny stock.

OakPearl:
Buy CLSK at $8.97 now and sell within the week above $9 for a quick profit.

I have sold my CLSK bought yesterday at $8.97 at $9.58 today.
Not a bad scalp in under 24 hours!😁

megawealth01:
NGX police on 🚓

I no call name ooooooo

Trouble maker!

Every time you see Tesla ($250) jumping, and you are perhaps unable to catch the train, turn to NIO ($5.32) and LI ($22.20).
They are two Chinese EV stocks always on sympathy play with Tesla.
If you don’t make money via Tesla, don’t miss making it with these.
They will both rise today.

OakPearl:
Buy CLSK at $8.97 now and sell within the week above $9 for a quick profit.

If you bought CLSK just an hour ago as mentioned at $8.97, it’s now $9.22!
I bought as I alerted.

Buy CLSK at $8.97 now and sell within the week above $9 for a quick profit.

bovali:
Valuation of Access Bank’s Stock: A Comprehensive Analysis Using 10 Methods

In this post, I analyze the potential stock price of Access Bank, a major player in Nigeria’s banking industry, using 10 different valuation methods. For each method, I present a worst, base, and best-case scenario. This approach provides a well-rounded view of the stock’s valuation under various market conditions.

1. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio

The P/E ratio compares the current share price to the company’s earnings per share (EPS). With an EPS of ₦7.61, I applied three different P/E multiples to arrive at potential price ranges.

• Worst Case (P/E = 4x): ₦30.44
• Base Case (P/E = 8x): ₦60.88
• Best Case (P/E = 12x): ₦91.32

2. Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio

This method values the stock based on the net asset value of the company. It provides insights into how the market values the bank’s equity in relation to its actual assets.

• Worst Case (P/B = 0.8x): ₦63.86
• Base Case (P/B = 1.2x): ₦95.79
• Best Case (P/B = 1.6x): ₦127.72

3. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model

The DCF model estimates the present value of the company’s future cash flows. This is one of the most comprehensive methods, often used for long-term valuations.

• Worst Case: ₦28.00
• Base Case: ₦65.00
• Best Case: ₦105.00

4. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a stock based on the present value of future dividend payments. This method is particularly useful for dividend-paying companies like Access Bank.

• Worst Case: ₦22.00
• Base Case: ₦50.00
• Best Case: ₦75.00

5. Asset-Based Valuation

In this method, I assess the value of the stock based on the company’s net assets (assets minus liabilities). This provides a conservative view of the stock price.

• Worst Case: ₦35.00
• Base Case: ₦60.00
• Best Case: ₦80.00

6. Earnings Growth Model

This approach forecasts the company’s future earnings and applies a multiple based on growth expectations.

• Worst Case: ₦25.00
• Base Case: ₦55.00
• Best Case: ₦85.00

7. Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio

The P/S ratio compares the stock price to the company’s revenue per share. It’s useful when earnings are volatile or when valuing early-stage companies.

• Worst Case: ₦12.94
• Base Case: ₦32.34
• Best Case: ₦51.74

8. Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)

This method looks at the company’s enterprise value relative to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).

• Worst Case: ₦30.00
• Base Case: ₦65.00
• Best Case: ₦100.00

9. Relative Valuation (Comparables)

Relative valuation compares Access Bank’s valuation multiples (like P/E and P/B) to its peers in the Nigerian banking sector. This method provides context by assessing how Access Bank compares to competitors.

• Worst Case: ₦27.00
• Base Case: ₦58.00
• Best Case: ₦90.00

10. Economic Value Added (EVA)

EVA measures the company’s ability to generate returns above its cost of capital. This is a good indicator of the company’s profitability and long-term value creation.

• Worst Case: ₦32.00
• Base Case: ₦55.00
• Best Case: ₦90.00

Summary:

To provide a concise summary, I calculate the average share price across the 10 valuation methods for the worst, base, and best-case scenarios:

• Worst Case Average: ₦30.73
• Base Case Average: ₦59.90
• Best Case Average: ₦88.88

The current stock price of Access Holdings PLC (ACCESSCORP) as of September 20, 2024, is ₦19.00 per share, following a 3.06% decline from the previous day. Over the past year, the stock has ranged from a low of ₦15.45 (September 28, 2023) to a high of ₦30.70 (January 18, 2024). This price trend reflects some volatility, with the stock trading closer to the lower end of its annual range recently. I expect another low to high cycle this September to January period again.

Given this context, the stock is currently trading well below the upper bounds projected in the best-case valuation but aligns more closely with some of the base-case valuations derived from the methods I used earlier. This highlights that the stock might have more growth potential if conditions improve, but it is still trading near recent lows.
Not financial advice. DYOR

You’ve done such a meticulous job here.
You just reminded me of the halllmark of what this forum was all about years back - a treasure bank of invaluable knowledge and information.
Though you didn’t state it in item 2, I can deduce from the other figures you supplied that you arrived at a book value per share of N79.825 for Access Bank.
Can you confirm you used DCF model?
I haven’t done the calculation; just a quick check question.
Keep up the good work.

aremso:
Some of these stocks are on my watch list but not on bamboo.

That’s the sad reality for many.
Let’s hope they add more going forward.

MrDiligence:
I just recorded my first ever 100% gain in the US stock market. Thank you Jesus. 🙌 And thanks to all the gurus in the house for your guidance. Just started about 2 months ago with something small. We go learn the ropes small small. Thanks @Oakpearl et al 🙏

Big congratulations on your win.
More wins we pray.

US STOCKS DAY TRADE PICKS!
The pre-market is heating up and I’ve got my eyes on some movers.

Here’s what I’m watching today!
✅BATL Long >4.75 Short < 4.45
✅XPON Long > 0.1372 Short < 0.1252
✅BNZI Long > 5.59 Short < 4.62
✅LFLY Long >2.75 Short < 2.40
✅TNON Long > 6.80 Short < 6.60
✅GDHG Long > 4.41 Short < 3.88

Decide when to take profits based on price and volume action.
Happy trading.

megawealth01:
Did you say shareholders forum/association? Does Nigeria have any that's checking these companies?

I feel those parading themselves as association are probably on the payrolls of these companies?

At the moment, whatever exists is a farce.
The good old days of shareholder rights protection is long gone.

Raider76:
I think there should be a gov policy to make such companies list to grow the NGX, just like the Buhari gov got MTN to list.

Btw did you see them declaring N300b profit? If they were listed it will be loss they declare with all sorts of excuses like FX losses. The ways companies cheat investors and escape taxes is too much.

This is where a vibrant shareholders forum comes in.
But that aspect of our investment community has been polarized and watered down badly.
I remember the days of Sunny Nwosu and co in the 1990’s who would fight for shareholders rights and corporate activism to keep management of listed companies on their toes and instilling corporate governance.
All those things have been destroyed by brown envelop tactics.

Raider76:
Let them relist on the NGX for retail investors to benefit from all that N300b profit.

We should have understood these people by now na.
They only came to the market when they need funding that’s beyond their capacity.
And when they make enough money and the future looks much brighter, they have a rethink about their existence on the NGX and delist to go private and enjoy alone.
We too now have to be smarter and play the game with them accordingly.

Omorwumi:
Pls I need recommendations on US stocks to buy today

You have to be specific about what kind of stock.
If you dive into the market just like that, someone may recommend a day trade stock for you that could lead to quick losses because you who requested it was thinking of a long term investment.

Omorwumi:
Sir do you have group for US stocks to buy sir

If we create a group outside here, we effectively shut out many new members who will come looking for us here and not meet us.

Omorwumi:
I need best app to trade US stock

If you are in Nigeria, it’s either of Trove, Chaka, Bamboo.
Do your research and decide which to use.
Otherwise with a minimum of $2,500 you can use Tradezero.

aremso:
Good day guys, being a while. please is there any broker in US that accept nigerians

The one I know is not exactly I. The US but accepts Nigerians as long as you can start with a minimum deposit of $2,500.

aremso:
Bro welcome back, appreciate your creation of this forum where millionaires are made. Kudos. Also thanful to yok for making this space lively, being a while i came here.

Baba,
Thank you for your kind words.
Very pleased to hear from you too.
We are back, better and smarter.

Alaska90:
Chairman you are welcome back....Good to see you again.
Thanks for creating this forum oh
And I hope that your coming back now will bring life back to this board especially with your morning trade suggestions.
I hope the other older guys will also return.
Thanks

Thank you very much bro.
Very glad to read from you.
Better days ahead.

BullBearMkt:
...what of Oba & Ote$ rumuours?

They are the reason it can even climb to even N50!

yMcy56:
The whole OS is barely 1.2bn even with the bonus inclusive...
66.14% of it belongs to substantial, Directors and influential shareholders while,
33.86% is for free float.

In my opinion, lot's of patience is the key here.
Let's allow the itchy fingers dump finish if they choose to, then the patient ones should wait for the company's next move.
* Any dumping/fall will be an opportunity to pick more.

Q2 2024 Shareholding structure of 253million OS before bonus addition attached.

Very good work.
Well done Mercy.

megawealth01:
Being an entrepreneur in Nigeria is demanding. I celebrate all NAIJA entrepreneurs that don't have government connections but still thrives

Here has a lot of structures that encourages job creators compared to NAIJA

Naija will not cease to confound logic.
Just leave her matter.
When we ready, we go know.

Sunrisepebble:
FINAL and FULL info on FMN, as it is no longer classified info and has spread far and wide within various circles, the coy wants to delist from the exchange. And will ofcourse purchase at a premium. The premium was set around #70 while the stock was trading ~#45, however with recent gains, it will be revised upwards. HONEYFLOUR will be included in the transaction, as they want to delist the two entities, consolidate and then list again as a new entity. Purchase price for HONEYFLOUR, I am unsure of. Congrats to all those who listened to the initial signal

Well done for your consistent insight trail on this deal.
I think more update awaits and will be unveiled when they disclose further details of the deal.
If you get more details before they make it public, it will be nice to know what they intend to do with NNFM as FMN owns 53% stake in NNFM.
Will be interesting for those here who may not have capitalized on FMN and Honeywell to swoop on NNFM if the structure of the deal favours shareholders of NNFM also as it does Honeywell shareholders.

emmanuelewumi:
Uche is now born again, he got gonorrhea from one of his side chicks.. Since he got cured few months ago, he is now sober apart from that he is now in his 50s and has decided to get closer to God.

Unfortunately people are still very skeptical, let us see as events unfolds

OakPearl:
You have been amazing.
I mean your consistency and steadfastness on this forum is very impressive and inspiring.
Well done for all you do.
As a welcome back insight, keep an eye on RUN.
A perfect swing trade set up between $17/$18.
I will be updating as the stock progresses.

RUN hits $20!
Hope you’re making money?

IYGEAL:
Yes o.

Especially as it seems dem dey listen and act when he talks

What is happening between the Dangote Group and NNPC is a case of incompetence meeting head on with competence and precision. Accountability and business integrity meeting with a system where deceit and lies form a core ingredient of existence.
Any one swapping jobs from Shell to the Nigerian civil service will easily develop migraine and BP due to the huge golf in standards and procedures.
The sudden grey hair on Alhaji says it all.
If that is his sacrifice for this country, may Nigeria be liberated finally.

designking:
@megawealth01 is one of my favorite person on this thread... I made some real cash from his picks and cautions.

Abeg should I sell my FirstBank stocks now? I have already made almost 40% on the recent rally. I can't seem to find why FBNH has been rallying and I doubt if the recent price can be sustained.

The powers fighting for the soul of First Bank is responsible for the price rise. Two of the chief characters are Femi Otedola and Oba Otudeko. Currently based on performance, they are not near UBA. Imagine them paying a dividend of 40 kobo and delaying it up till September when their peers have already paid final dividend in May and about to pay interim this month. As long as current value is concerned, UBA should be selling for around N30 ahead of FBNH but indeed the market obeys money so money is chasing firstbank irrespective of their fundamentals that’s why.
This fact is not meant to be viewed as an attack on First Bank which myself was once a staff of.
Simply unemotional post, because in this market, separate emotions and be at peace.

megawealth01:
The possibility of NS/DS to continue going south is still viable until a major development happen for them...

Bargain hunters be prepared for a kill

We go dey load am at every giving opportunity

If you ask me, that’s my plan too.
To load up more at any further dip despite my initial entry price for Sugar at N9.

Agbalowomeri:
Chai this man wicked o

No worry.
We will not forget your impact both on and off the field.

designking:
That is what most people here don't know. Dangote does business of scale and the singular reason the cement, sugar and salt businesses slowed was because Dangote Refinery.

No doubt about him doing business of scale, but I don’t think it’s the refinery that slowed the other businesses down.
He is organized enough to multitask his vision for the group. For cement, I think it will take some time for us to see what Otedola saw and racked up the much he invested that ballooned the price from around N300 to N700+ between last quarter of 2023 and February 2024.
Upscaling vision for Sugar and Nascon businesses (Dangfoods) slowed because of the hitches with SEC on the merger approval. That in itself is now only a delay that will soon be done with as I hear there’s enough reason to include rice in the deal. They are dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s.
I won’t be surprised if supplies for both stocks begin to wane.