₦airaland Forum

omenka:
It's shocking to see Obidients who claim they want the best for the country, and know what's best for the country, overtly express their anger over the elimination of a global terrorist!!

Suddenly, Trump, whom just yesterday was a hero they looked up to, has become an arch enemy. They've found corn and barrels of oil in his pocket, and need video evidence to believe what he's said.

The day anyone these people support becomes the president of this country, is renounce my citizenship.

God bless Nigeria and protect her from all enemies within and without. Amen.

Shamelessly lieing has become the hallhallmark of Tinubu data boys.

How and what connects Obidients to Trump killing a known terrorist, or Ahmad Gumi, a known terrorist sympathizer, crying after his fellow terrorist is anyone's bewilderment.

As for the threat to renounce your Nigerian citizenship when Peter Obi becomes your president, I laugh in North Korea. Na who get choice go renounce. You follow us wey get dual and triple nationalities na.

At this rate my friend, most data boys are stuck with the shithole called Nigeria. That's what H. E Peter Gregory Obi is working very hard, with his equally hard earned money to save you all unfortunate Tinubu supporters from.

Obogidi:
if i may ask what kind of business , and will survive in this economy

Health
Food
Shelter

These are man's basic needs. You can't do wrong there.

Richtaiwo:
They kept asking as though the measure of their foolishness depended entirely on Tinubu setting foot on American soil. But watch closely, the very day Asiwaju finds it necessary to visit the US, they will queue up like starving orphans asking whether that itself is an achievement. From same people.

Meanwhile, the few “educated” ones who have been proudly parroting the same nonsense will suddenly switch tune and start shouting diplomatic immunity, as though the thought had only just occurred to them.

Notwithstanding the banter on Nairaland, how is it that the Nigerian president has not been deemed worthy of an invitation to the White House in his nearly three years in office?. The optics is very bad and very revealing.

Ishilove:
This is an understatement.

I am very very very certain that if it had been a Nigeria only operation, it would have been a massive failure because of the moles in the army and government saboteurs.

The truth is, in todays warfare, out military is grossly inadequate. Nigerians are sentimental, incompetent and corrupt. The US basically engaged in furtherance of their national security interest in the global fight against islamic terrorism, not necessarily Nigeria.

Davido's boy. Foolishness now has a name, Mumudu.

femi4:
Way to go...after all the next guy that will chike her will replace them all

You mean the next ijiot?.

yarimo:
even in oyo state makinde won't get 2% of votes. Just dey play on social media

No problem. Shey na Tinubu been make am governor?.
January no far again, if his candidature holds.

Dangote is a monopolist. Man was granted all maner of import liscences, wavers, foreign exchange at ridiculous rates and sold the bulk of Nigeria cement industries by his Fulani brothers.

The current aim of course is to monopolize the domestic fuel and petrochemical supply chain. If I am the president, I will stop him cold.

I will work with the national assembly to make such a critical sector to have a minimum of 39 percent national holding, including other measures to secure public interests.

Felabrity:
Inflation was never 15%

How did it move from 30% to 15%?

Is nbs on drugs or standing on Tinubu mandate?

No mind dem. Nigeria's inflation hovers around 35 percent minimum.

yarimo:
War on TINUBU ? The same Makinde that is very scared of WIKE?

No be only scared.
Seyi just told Tinubu that the Southwest is not his. Dem go share SW votes to our pleasure.

Seyi my man!.

aswani:
I guess we shall see because I disagree with a good chunk of your projection.

I respect them though.

Of course. God keeping us alive, we will be tme witnesses.

Jilo83:
I can bet it
APC will win Oyo during presidential election.

Na lie!

aswani:
Peter Obi is part of Eastern Region which has nothing to do with South South, except maybe Delta North.

He is going to struggle there this time round.

Peter Obi will win Edo, Rivers (Wike go jam Agbakọ this time), Delta, Cross River, and now Bayelsa. We will yet see if Eno can help Tinubu rig Akwa Ibom like they did PDP in 2023.

I hope you understand the structural composition of Nigeria politics?. The challenge NDC has at the moment is in the NW and NW and SW,excluding Lagos, Kano and Kaduna and Taraba.

What happens in the NW, NE and SW will depend on whether Atiku runs or not, malam El-Rufai and Makinde's disposition going forward.

Notice that I intentionally did not bother to delve into your tribal baiting.

DeLaRue:
The minimum number of states a candidate must score 25% of votes in to be declared a winner is 24.

The chances of Mr Atiku scoring 25% in 24 states is very slim, if not zero, as I can't think of a single Southern state where ADC will secure 25% of the votes, now that Mr Obi has left the party.

As for NDC, in 2023, Mr Obi and Mr Kwankwaso only secured 25% of the votes in a combined total of 17 states. That means they need an additional 7 states. NDC may secure 25% in Lagos, but it will not anywhere else in the South West, and the North East where ADC will likely dominate. So, the party faces a very tall order to reach the required threshold in 24 States.

APC will gain 25% in more Southern States than it did last time, and will secure 25% in almost all North Central states, and in 2 or 3 North East and North West states.

APC is still in poll position for the coming elections. All each Southern APC Governor needs to do is ensure that ADC's doesn't win 25% of the votes in their state. Even if Mr Atiku wins all 19 Northern States, he will still need to gain 25% of votes in at least 5 Southern states to have a chance of being declared a winner. I don't know about other Southern regions, but in the SW, ADC will struggle to get 5% in any SW State. I could be wrong, but I don't see ADC getting 25% in any SS or SE State. If this scenario plays out, then Mr Atiku cannot be declared President even if he gets 500 million votes in the North.

Mr Obi's withdrawal from ADC has killed the party in the South. ADC leaders know it. That is why they are very bitter and demoralised right now. When they appear on their favorite Arise TV these days, they wear long faces and speak in very low and sad voice. Without Mr Obi, there is no other Southern political heavyweight in ADC that can deliver 25% in any Southern state.

While you’re right that the ADC may not secure a 25% margin in any South-East or even South-South state, I vehemently disagree with the claim that the APC will broaden its margins in the region.

The APC is likely to lose votes massively in the North-West and marginally in the North-East, even with the expected rigging.

The picture looks very grim for the APC in the South-East, regardless of whatever David Umahi tells people. South-East governors cannot substantially influence votes in the region as long as Peter Obi is on the ballot, as was witnessed yesterday in Abakaliki.

The South-South remains somewhat competitive, but the same Obi factor will weaken resistance there as well. Tinubu’s money politics notwithstanding, Nigerians want visible change, and they want it now.

The final battleground is the North-Central. It will be a keen contest there, depending on who rigs the most effectively. My best prognostication is that the region will be split between the APC and the NDC, 6–5 in terms of 25% spread, with Kwara likely being the outlier against the NDC.

If they run the right campaign, the NDC would prevail in Plateau, Benue, Nasarawa, and the FCT, while the APC retains Kwara, Niger, and Kogi.

The South-West does not look too favorable for the NDC at the moment. It remains APC territory, although Lagos will continue to be competitive if the opposition resists ethnic intimidation, stands its ground, and protects its votes.

Depending on the direction Seyi Makinde eventually takes politically, the NDC may secure 25% in two South-West states.

If you lose Zaria in an election, you have effectively lost northern Kaduna and, by extension, the bulk of the votes in Kaduna Central.

The obvious imprisonment (not prosecution) of Malam El-Rufai has effectively resulted in an APC loss in Kaduna. The state will likely be cannibalized by both the ADC and the NDC.

The ripple effect will extend into associated voting patterns across the North-West, which could ultimately benefit Atiku Abubakar, if he is allowed to run. Whether that happens may well be decided by Tinubu’s courts.

When one carefully examines the temprature of nothern political elites, some of us are scratching our heads and asking, where is Tinubus pathway to victory in this election, when we consider that 52% of his votes in 2023 came from there?.

yarimo:
Hahahaha eze burial affairs of agulu village Mr peter obi you are doing your job well going to burial with over 1000 cameramen as if you are you going for a political rally

Make Tinubu even go funeral make we see. Abi people wey him know nor dey kpai?.

Makinde must be on the ballot. Southwest people loves him.

This fat toad need to take Mr. Obi away from his filthy mouth and sell his candidate to whomsoever is interested in him.

And it starts on the eve of your second term re-election campaign. And deliverable in 2027. Like the 180 days water bait on the eve of the first term election. C'mon man, we are not stupid.

AntiChristian:
Doing the same thing and wanting a different result is called what?

Based on last election
Tinubu - 8,794, 726

Atiku - 6,984,520

Obi - 6,101,533

Kwakwaso - 1, 496,678

Obi + Kwankwaso = 7,598,211 They still need 1,196,515 votes to compete as regards total votes!

Detailed Regional Breakdown according to constitutional 25% requirement

Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC): Surpassed 25% votes in 29 states across multiple regions:
South-West: Ekiti, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Lagos.
North-West: Jigawa, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Kano, Kaduna.
North-Central: Kwara, Niger, Kogi, Benue, Nasarawa, Plateau.
North-East: Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, Adamawa, Yobe.
South-South/East: Rivers, Cross River.

Atiku Abubakar (PDP): Secured ≥ 25% votes in 21 states, mainly in the North and South-South:
North: Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Yobe, Borno, Taraba, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Kaduna, Jigawa, Zamfara, Niger, Kwara, Nasarawa, Plateau.
South: Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta, Edo, Rivers

Peter Obi (Labour Party): Achieved ≥ 25% votes in 16 states including the FCT, mostly in the South-East and South-South:
South-East: Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo
South-South: Edo, Delta, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Bayelsa
Others: Lagos, FCT, Nasarawa, Plateau, Taraba

Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP): Only secured ≥ 25% votes in Kano State, where he also won.

Let's be clear.

Tinubu has already lost half of the votes he allegedly won in 2023. If rigging is removed from the equation, there is no pathway for relection here. This is particularly true in the north-west and north-east, given the allegations of the 'Lagosisation' of his government by northern elites and the now evident failure of his government in all key performance indicators.

Even with the support of governors and rigging, Tinubu cannot receive 20 per cent of the votes in any south-east state if Peter Obi is on the ballot. The same goes for most south-south states. He will share Lagos with Peter Obi. Obi will also secure over 24 percent of the votes in Ondo and, depending on Makinde's alignment, he may also perform well in Oyo or not.

The key to the above prediction is the opposition's ability to effectively staff the polling stations and protect their votes against the government's long-standing rigging of the system.

Peter Obi will win the north-central states of Nasarawa, Plateau, Benue and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), effectively winning the region. The outcome in the north-west and north-east is too close to call at the moment. The outcome depends on whether Atiku will be on the ballot, and who Malam Nasir El-Rufai works for, even from prison.

Since Tinubu has woefully failed, let's give the opportunity to a man who has done it before as governor in a very difficult-to-govern state. Lagos had no such issues.

aswani:
Doherty is in ADC too, bo way Chinedu Gbadebo gets the ticket ahead of him.

May the best person win as they are only going to lose to Hamzat anyway.

Shinedu will get the votes of your favourite friends, the Obidients, albeit not as much as he would if he moved with his principal.

Eastcoastboy:
Well, it's a game.

They should unite first and get hold of the seat, before anyone go begin play smartness.

Because an average Hausa man does not trust an Igbo man. Not out of hatred, but in recognition of mutual cleverness and strong will towards a course.

Oga, almost no Nigerian tribe trusts Igbo. This is for various reasons. Most are intimidated by Igbo boisterousness, and some in NC are suspicious of Igbo because of their involvement and the atrocities they committed towards the Igbo during the war. Their fathers are replete with stories of Igbo near-magic heroism during the war. They are yet to come to terms with the fact that the Igbo will not rise against them, especially the near neighbors in Benue, Kogi, and Nasarawa.

The Yoruba is out of unnecessary jealousy and fear, and so on. The real friends of the Igbo in Nigeria are still the Hausa. The mutual respect dates way back, back before the British, in connivance with the Fulani, introduced tribal politics during amalgamation.

aswani:
Also, Sanwoolu got lucky that he had an extra week, so two in total, to expose Chinedu Gbadebo's tweets.

Chinedu Gbadebo of course didn't help himself with nonsense like "not thinking in Yoruba" and doubling down on his nonsense previous Anti Yoruba tweets.

Peter Obi really should have done some due diligence on him, he was the worst person to have gotten that ticket. Lagos state would have had an LP governor by now, without a shadow of a doubt

Oh well. He's Atikus problem now that he's in ADC, and he's running.

aswani:
The HOR guy jumped on the Peter Obí LP bandwagon and won. I will repeat, after Presidential electoral results from the SE sunk in, that particular horse no longer exists to ride on. He will be kicked out next time he is up for elections as the light has been shined on him and not in a good way. Nothing to do with President Tinubu actually.

Per Chinedu Gbadebo, by the way his real name he campaigned with previously when trying for State House of Assembly, his social media Anti Yoruba outburst did him in as he too would have ridden the Peter Obi momentum then to victory.

The Only reason Shinedu is not the Lagos governor today is that the gubernatorial election was held after the presidential polls.

SeeWahala:
No mind am. I just noticed he has blocked me

It's like he's about to go FERRAL and bare his full fangs this next 3 weeks watch out for his viciousness on all threads concerning
1. Peter Obi
2. Obidients
3. Anambra/Igbos Generally

Also remember the sound, it's "SSSssss" very unmistakable, I'm sure your have no problems with his stings sha 🤗

Na, "we" have since settled into a rhythm. I speak my mind with poetry.

aswani:
Nwanem, there are lots of Peter Obí "bash" threads I stay well away from.

I don't hate President Tinubu, or Atiku or Peter Obí for that matter, I just think they are all, yes all, part of a political class that need to get lost and let others come through.

Except for the man who bequeathed 300.000.000.000 naira to his successor, I wholeheartedly agree.

Samantha125:
What does your own tribal head accessories look like? feel free to share so that we can learn from each other's tribes.

Madam, Just bring me one of the Balobedu's. I will even endure a little zenophobia for her sake.

fergie001:
See Previous story


https://www.vanguardngr.com/2026/05/im-not-a-native-doctor-wike-distances-self-from-rivers-apc-screening/?fbclid=IwdGRjcARu7wNjbGNrBG7u-2V4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHqialFBbXjkNhxflM7K8hG4HP200AUHIqkFZN2jWtt6hZXZCIWT9ln8sw5Pr_aem_K3D4CyhDgYPSvMvVyBw2cA

Nigeria is an evil theater. This is much like the song I hear my good friend, Aswani, sing everyday.

Im yet to encounter a Peter Obi bash thread that fails to feature him gleefully dishing out innuendo, yet he hates Tinubu.

Nyeson Wike and my sneeky friend, Aswani, are like two pregnant virgins in a maternity ward.

ogugwa1992:
https://leaders.ng/2026/05/11/the-homeland-security-appointment-debate-why-nigeria-must-avoid-institutional-overlap/

Summary: Tinubu does not trust the Fulani NSA, so he appointed his brother. But to fulfil tradition and expectations, and to keep his Fulani partners calm, a northern NSA is to remain on the seat.

This is alsalso another conduit through which the your funds grows multiple legs. Dasukigate readily comes to mind.

Whether anyone is fooled is anybody's guess.

Ndcnigeriavoice:
Breaking News.

“NDC Zones 2027 Presidency to South, Opens Door for Peter Obi”

Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC)
has officially:

Zoned 2027 presidential ticket to Southern Nigeria

Limited it to a single 4-year term (2027–2031)

Agreed power will return to the North in 2031

This is a structured power-sharing deal (North–South balance)

Is a Huge opening for Obi

The path is now formally open for Peter Obi to run under NDC.

No northern competition inside the party
Strong southern backing likely
Clear positioning as a consensus candidate

Smart coalition strategy by NDC

This move is not random—it’s strategic:
Appeals to Northern politicians (guaranteed turn in 2031)

Attracts Southern voters now (2027)
Reduces internal party conflict

This is how serious parties build winning coalitions

One-term promise = trust tool

The 4-year limit is powerful politically:

Makes Obi (or any candidate) look less threatening to rivals

Encourages:

Northern elites to support him
Easier alliance negotiations

In Nigerian politics:

Short-term power deals often unlock big alliances

Pressure on other opposition parties
This move puts pressure on:

People's Democratic Party

Labour Party

They now risk:

Losing southern support

Losing key political figures to NDC

Signals growing realignment

This confirms something important:

2027 will likely be shaped by coalitions and new alignments, not just old parties.

Strategic Advantage for Obi
If he joins or aligns with NDC:

Gains:

Clear regional legitimacy (South ticket)
Strong negotiation power
Easier northern acceptance (due to 1-term deal)

Risks:

Must abandon or weaken ties with Labour Party
Coalition politics could create internal conflicts
Needs strong structure within NDC quickly

Real Political Interpretation

This decision is basically saying:

“We are building a platform that can actually defeat APC.”

Because:

It reduces regional tension

Encourages elite political deals

Makes opposition unity more realistic

What Obi Should Do Next (Critical)

1. Move quickly
Delay = losing momentum
He should engage NDC early

2. Negotiate from strength
Secure:
Party structure control
Key allies
VP selection influence

3. Use the 4-year promise smartly
Market himself as:
“A transitional leader to stabilize Nigeria”

This can win:

Northern trust
Neutral voters

4. Build immediate coalition
Bring in:
PDP factions
Smaller parties
Influential governors

Final Reality Check

This is one of the most serious political developments so far ahead of 2027.

If managed well:

It could dramatically increase Obi’s chances

If mismanaged:

It becomes just another failed coalition

Bottom Line

This move by Nigeria Democratic Congress creates:

A realistic pathway to power for Peter Obi—
but only if he plays coalition politics correctly and quickly.

ADC resident landlord, Atiku Abubakar has been crying since...

helinues:
No opposition whether from South or north or their combination in a party can defeat president Tinubu.

We started the preparation early

That's why they are destroying and tearing up Tinubu's posters in the north?.