₦airaland Forum

24.11.2014

Granada CF - UD Almería (Spain, Primera Division)
Pick: 1
Odds: 2.1

Head to Head
10-05-14 Granada – Almeria 0-2

Probable lineups
Granada (4-4-2): Roberto – Nyom, Babin, J. Murillo, Foulquier – Sissoko, Iturra, F. Rico, J. Carlos – J. Cordoba, El-Arabi
Almeria (4-2-3-1): Ruben – X. Navarro, F. Velez, Trujillo, Dubarbier – Verza, Azeez – E. Mendez, Soriano, Jonathan - Thievy

Injured & Suspended
Granada: Riki (F, 0, 0), Eddy (M, 3, 0), Machis (F, 3, 0), Nounkeu (D, 0, 0), Sulayman (D, 1, 0)
Almeria: Corona (M, 6, 0), Thomas (M, 9, 0)

Preview:
Granada won only 2 points in their last 7 league matches and is very far from their level last season considering the results. They are just above the relegation zone with better goal difference than Elche and point more than Almeria. In the last 3 matches Granada lost only to Real Madrid and drew away to Eibar and Celta which is a sign of improvement. Almeria lost 4 in a row and hardly can take something from here. It is time El-Arabi to produce a good match for Granada this season.

Markets:
The risk is divided between home win and under 2.5 in this match. The odds moves are normal and expected so far.

22.11.2014 Lombard Papa - Kispest Honved - 2 - LOST.

23.11.2014

Levante UD - Valencia CF (Spain, Primera Division)
Pick: 2
Confidence:7/10
Odds: 1.7

Head to Head
10-05-14 Levante – Valencia 2-0
07-10-12 Levante – Valencia 1-0
26-01-12 Levante – Valencia 0-3
05-11-11 Levante – Valencia 0-2
09-01-11 Levante – Valencia 0-1

Probable lineups
Levante (4-4-2): Marino – Vyntra, D. Navarro, Juanfran, Nikos – R. Garcia, P. Diop, M. Sissoko, Ivanschitz – V. Casadesus, D. Barral
Valencia (4-2-3-1): D. Alves – Barragan, Mustafi, Otamendi, Gaya – Parejo, J. Fuego – Rodrigo, A. Gomes, Piatti – Negredo

Injured & Suspended
Levante: no
Valencia: Paco Alcacer (F, 11, 4)

Preview:
Levante won their last two home matches against Valencia in the derby but lost 4 out of their last 5 and are currently in the relegation zone. The recent victory over Almeria brought them confidence but Valencia is different level. Valencia won 3-1 away to Villarreal in the last away match and today will win another local clash.

Markets:
Valencia have been decrease by whole 85% in the positioning which show the bookies intentions to this derby.

21.11.2014 FC Vestsjaelland - Randers FC - 2 - WON!

22.11.2014

Lombard Papa - Kispest Honved (Hungary, NB I)
Pick: 2
Confidence:5/10
Odds: 2.1

Head to Head
07-12-13 Lombard – Honved 1-0
20-10-12 Lombard – Honved 2-1
10-09-11 Lombard – Honved 3-1
16-04-11 Lombard – Honved 0-1
24-04-10 Lombard – Honved 0-3

Preview:
Honved won just one point in their last 7 matches in the leagues and meanwhile fired their Italian coach Pietro Vierchowod. Today they are away to Papa where they lost their last 3 matches but the heavy backing on them in the market turned Honved into favourites. It is very significant move for the Hungarian market.

Markets:
In any case it is unusual activity on Honved.

21.11.2014

FC Vestsjaelland - Randers FC (Denmark, Superligaen)
Pick: 2
Confidence:6/10
Odds: 1.96

Head to Head
07-03-14 Vestsjaelland – Randers 1-1
15-09-13 Vestsjaelland – Randers 2-0
07-02-13 Vestsjaelland – Randers 1-0
19-10-11 Vestsjaelland – Randers 1-2

Probable lineups
Vestsjaelland (3-5-2): Mikkelsen- Lund, Bozga, Kure - Nymann, Kristiansen, Madsen, Thomsen, Due - Sørensen, Festersen.
Randers (4-4-2): Johnsson - Thomsen, Fenger, Agesen, Fischer - Fisker, Poulsen, Keller, Kamper - Lundberg, Ishak

Injured & Suspended
Vestsjaelland: Randrup (D, 3, 0), Villadsen (G, 0, 0)
Randers: Borring (D, 0, 0)

Preview:
Vestsjaelland is conceding goals easily in the past two months and are now close to the relegation zone. They will play one of the teams with the best defense in the league. Colin Todd’s Randers is very solid at the back and we believe this will help win the 3 points today.

Markets:
There is already a scandal around this match after two German bookies removed it due to suspicious betting patterns. A day later they both opened it for betting again but it is a fact there is a big risk on the away win.

28.10.2014

Arminia Bielefeld - Hertha BSC (Germany, DFB Pokal)
Pick: 2
Confidence:7/10
Odds: 1.85 (bwin)

Head to Head
30-01-11 Arminia - Hertha 1-3

Probable lineups
Arminia (4-1-4-1): Schwolow - Dick, Börner, Salger, Schuppan - Schütz - Hemlein, C. Müller, Ulm, Mast - Klos
Herta (4-2-3-1): Kraft - M. Ndjeng, Lustenberger, Heitinga, Pekarik - Niemeyer, Hosogai - Roy Beerens, Stocker, Haraguchi - Kalou

Injured & Suspended
Arminia: Hornig (D, 0, 0)
Hertha: Burchert (G, 0, 0), Gersbeck (G, 0, 0), Langkamp (D, 1, 0), Van den Bergh (D, 2, 0), Baumjohann (M, 0, 0), Ben-Hatira (M, 5, 2), Cegerci (M, 0, 0), N. Schulz(M, 7, 0), Skjelbred (M, 6, 0)

Preview:
Hertha won only one point in their last 4 away league matches. Their last away victory was in this competition against Viktoria Koln in the middle of August. Now their task is more difficult but still there is a big difference between teams in first and third division. Hertha will miss many players in the middle but they choose offensive tactics which means they will try to close this match as soon as possible. Arminia won 7 matches in a row at home but not against such strong teams.

Markets:
There is a big drop of the away odds after bettors found a value. It seems bookies opened the market with unrealistic high odds.

21.10.2014

Norwich City - Leeds United (England, Skybet Championship)
Pick: 1
Confidence:9/10
Odds: 1.53 (bet365)

Head to Head
20-11-10 Norwich – Leeds 1-1
27-03-10 Norwich – Leeds 1-0

Preview:
Norwich will be without their playmaker Wes Hoolahan for the visit of Leeds to Carrow Road. He damaged his ankle in the 1-0 defeat by Fulham in the weekend. The Cannaries will count on the defender Jos Hooiveld and the forward Kyle Lafferty. Leeds will be unchanged.

Norwich won only one point from their last 3 matches which cost the going down from the top of the table. Leeds lost the Yorkshire derby against Rotherham on Friday and is without a victory in 4. It is almost certain home victory for the home side which is far better than Leeds.

Markets:
Norwich has been heavy decreased in the positioning. But these 88% were not enough for the bettors who pushed the home odds forcing some bookies to slash them down by more than 40%. And now there is a possibility for sure bets for early bettors. We don’t expect the odds will go further down until the kick off.

15.10.2014
Betis - CD Lugo (Spain, Copa del Rey)
Pick: 1
Confidence:8/10
Odds: 1.68 (188Bet)

Head to Head
No matches in the last 5 seasons

Preview:
The teams have almost identical record in the league. Betis is strong at home, where they have been beaten just by Albacete and in 3 of their 5 matches kept a clean sheet. Lugo won only once away against the second team of Barcelona and it was the only match they scored on the road. For Betis this competition is an opportunity to touch the top football in a season they will try to return to Primera and the home team is a big favourite here.

Markets:
The home odds are going down and some bookies with strong position in Spain (Sportingbet) took the lowest possible position due to unwanted risk.

Denmark - Portugal
Pick: 2
Confidence:6/10
Odds: 2.3

Head to Head
11-10-11 Denmark – Portugal 2-1
05-09-09 Denmark – Portugal 1-1

Preview:
Portugal lost their first home match at home to Albania 0-1 which led to a change of their coach with Fernando Santos replacing Paulo Bento. In the difficult group they are in, Portugal must start collecting points today. And Denmark didn’t make a confident start either. They have been lucky to win at home to Armenia and drew away to Albania. The visitors are without Fabio Coentrao and Cristiano Ronaldo is doubtful but Portugal are class above Denmark.

Markets:
The away odds collapsed after for some bookies Denmark were odds on favourite in the opening of the market.

26.09.2014 Cork City - Sligo Rovers - 1 - WON. 8-)

27.09.2014

FC Oss - SC Telstar (Holland, Eerste Divisie)
Pick: 1
Confidence:7/10
Odds: 1.73

Head to Head
22-02-14 Oss – Telstar 0-1
09-11-12 Oss – Telstar 1-0
09-12-11 Oss – Telstar 3-1
16-04-10 Oss – Telstar 1-1

Preview:
Oss drew one and lost 2 of their last 3 matches even scoring 2 goals in each of them. It is interesting that all of them were away and at home Oss is not only scoring easy but also is successful against weaker teams. They are 2-0-2 at home with defeats against Volendam and VVV.

Markets:
Being seriously decreased in the positioning Oss is enjoying unusual strong attention from the bettors.

24.09.2014 Hertha BSC - VfL Wolfsburg - 2 - LOST.

25.09. 2014

Norrköping - Kalmar FF (Sweden, Allsvenskan 2014)
Pick: 1
Confidence:6/10
Odds: 1.9

Head to Head
05-10-13 Norrkoping – Kalmar 0-1
08-07-12 Norrkoping – Kalmar 2-1
27-06-11 Norrkoping – Kalmar 1-2
29-05-11 Norrkoping – Kalmar 0-2

Preview:
Norrkoping is in a good form with two victories and a draw in the last 3 matches in all competitions. It was very important point they won on Monday night away to their local rival Atvidaberg after trailing 0-2. It gives a hope Norrkoping, one of the traditional Swedish clubs, will escape from the playout spot they currently occupy. Kalmar is in a bad form, losing last 3 without scoring a single goal. But it was widely expected for their young team after strong start of the season. Very possible home win here.

Markets:
The 31% decrease in the positioning along with drop in the home odds and low position of some Scandinavian bookies.

23.09.2014 Kilmarnock FC - St Johnstone - 2 (0 AH) - WON.

24.09.2014

Hertha BSC - VfL Wolfsburg (Germany, 1. Bundesliga)
Pick: 2
Confidence:5/10
Odds: 2.3

Head to Head
16-02-14 Hertha – Wolfsburg 1-2
31-03-12 Hertha – Wolfsburg 1-4
25-10-09 Hertha – Wolfsburg 0-0

Probable lineups
Hertha (4-2-3-1): Kraft - M. Ndjeng, Lustenberger, Heitinga, Pekarik - Hosogai, Skjelbred - Roy Beerens, Ronny, Kalou - Schieber
Wolfsburg (4-2-3-1): Benaglio - S. Jung, Naldo, Knoche, Rodriguez - Junior Malanda, Luiz Gustavo - Vieirinha, De Bruyne, Perisic - Bendtner

Injured & Suspended
Hertha: Gersbeck(G, 0, 0), Janker (D, 0, 0), S. Langkmap (D, 1, 0), Baumjohann (M, 0, 0), Cigerci (M, 0, 0), N. Schulz (M, 4, 0)
Wolfsburg: Felipe (D, 0, 0), Ochs (D, 0, 0), Trasch (M, 0, 0), Arnold (M, 3, 1), Seguin (M, 0, 0)

Preview:
Hertha failed to win any of their league matches this season and the visitors from Wolfsburg won their first match on Sunday. But this victory was more than impressive: 4-1 against Leverkusen, one of the favourites for the top positions. Wolfsburg are coming in Berlin with a great recent tradition against Hertha winning the last 4 matches.

Markets:
Hertha was the initial favourite of the bookies, but now it is reversed situation due to the accumulated risk on Wolfsburg.

22.09.2014 Chester - Wrexham - 2 (DNB) - LOST.

23.09.2014
Kilmarnock FC - St Johnstone (Scotland, League Cup)
Pick: 2 (AH)
Confidence:6/10
Odds: 1.77

Head to Head
05-04-14 Kilmarnock – Saint Johnstone 1-2
11-08-13 Kilmarnock – Saint Johnstone 0-0
14-11-12 Kilmarnock – Saint Johnstone 1-2
03-03-12 Kilmarnock – Saint Johnstone 0-0
01-10-11 Kilmarnock – Saint Johnstone 0-1

Preview:
Kilmarnock will chase their fourth straight home victory while their opponent Saint Johnstone will try to avoid third defeat in a row. But visitors will arrive heartened by the fact that they have not lost in their last seven visits to Rugby Park. They will have unchanged side while Kilmarnock manager Alan Johnston have problems with injured players and will wait for the fitness test before naming his eleven.

Markets:
Bookies are very cautious to the away win and at the exchange there is a big interest to Saint Johnstone.

21.09.2014 Malmö FF - Helsingborg - 1- LOST.

22.09.2014

Chester - Wrexham (England, The Skrill Premier Conference)
Pick: 2 (DNB)
Confidence:7/10
Odds: 1.65

Head to Head
19-04-14 Chester – Wrexham 0-0

Preview:
Chester must be much happier about his defence, which has conceded only three goals in their last four games, after leaking 15 in their first six matches. The change is due to the excellent performance and aerial power of the defender Ben Heneghan but today Chester will face much difficult task. The match is the so-called “Cross border derby” and Wrexham is the second best away team in the league. They come from an impressive 1-0 away victory to leaders Barnet and won 4 out of 5 away matches so far. We hardly see them lose today.

Markets:
The expectations are divided between the away win and the draw. Bookies are more cautious to the away win and their risk is on the draw so far.

21.09.2014
Malmö FF - Helsingborg (Sweden, Allsvenskan 2014)
Pick: 1
Confidence:8/10
Odds: 1.62

Head to Head
01-05-14 Malmo FF – Helsingborg 0-2
29-05-13 Malmo FF – Helsingborg 1-1
10-05-12 Malmo FF – Helsingborg 3-0
24-05-11 Malmo FF – Helsingborg 0-3
19-03-11 Malmo FF – Helsingborg 1-2

Preview:
In the remaining 7 matches until the end of the league Malmo will try to defend their 5 points lead and at the same time to get results in the Champions League. They will try to be more consistent in CL which means they should participate in it. Malmo won only a point from their last 3 league matches and this one will be crucial. Even Helsingborg is one of their bogey teams, MFF will win today as Helsingborg are not the same team they were in the recent seasons.

Markets:
The home odds are going down and bookies in Scandinavia are cautious even they opened the market on fair odds.

17.09.2014

AS Trencin - MSK Zilina (Slovakia, Corgon Liga)
Pick: 1
Odds: 2

FC Roskilde - AC Horsens (Denmark, Nordicbet Liga)
Pick: 2
Odds: 1.95

FK Zeta - Mornar Bar (Montenegro, Prva Crnogorska Liga)
Pick: 1
Odds: 1.45

Deportivo Malacateco - CSD Comunicaciones (Guatemala, Primera Division A)
Pick: 2
Odds: 3.6

Let's smash the bookies again today:

12.09.2014

Zaglebie Lubin - Chrobry Glogow (Poland, 1. Liga)
Pick: 1
Confidence:8/10
Odds: 1.57

Head to Head
No matches in the last 5 seasons

Preview:
Zaglebie failed to win in the last 3 home league matches this season and drew the recent two, missing on the 3 points in the last minutes. They are solid club who are now behind in the promotion race but at least they must start winning at home.

Markets:
There is an expected drop of the home odds after Polish bettors back this waited victory.

09.09.2014 Chester - Torquay Utd - 2 (DNB) - WON!

11.09.2014

Padideh - Sepahan Esfahan (Iran, Pro League)
Pick: 2 (DNB)
Confidence:6/10
Odds: 1.67

Head to Head
No matches in the last 5 seasons

Preview:
The newcomer Padideh is unbeaten in all 7 matches since the start of the season. It is typical trend for many leagues but at the same team it is typical that many newcomers who made a flying start fail at the first serious hurdle. Against title contender like Sepahan it is expected Padideh to make a mistake.

Markets:
A big drop in the away odds and it is impressive that Asians keep low position.

06.09.2014 Barnet - Alfreton Town - 1 - WON.

09.09.2014

Chester - Torquay Utd (England, The Skrill Premier Conference)
Pick: 2 (DNB)
Confidence:7/10
Odds: 1.54

Head to Head
No matches in the last 5 seasons

Preview:
As we successfully predicted, Torquay will start their way up with Saturday’s victory over Nuneaton. Now the team, relegated from the Football League in the end of the last season, will be away to an opponent who is very unstable. The 3 points for the visitors are expected but a choosing the DNB option makes it very secure.

Markets:
Torquay will be much decreased in the near future and it will be a trend. Now in the positioning the away odds are 57% less than the fair ones.

7.09.2014

São Paulo/SP - Sport Club Recife/PE (Brazil)
Pick: 1
Odds: 1.44 (bet365)

05.09.2014 Benevento - Catanzaro - 1 - LOST.

06.09.2014

Barnet - Alfreton Town (England, The Skrill Premier Conference)
Pick: 1
Confidence:8/10
Odds: 1.3 (bet365)

Head to Head
04-01-14 Barnet – Alfreton 1-0

Preview:
The league leaders won’t face problems against bottom of the table Alfreton.

Markets:
There is an expected drop of the home odds.

05.09.2014

Benevento - Catanzaro (Italy, Lega Pro 1 Divisione)
Pick: 1
Confidence:4/10
Odds: 1.91

Head to Head
06-04-14 Benevento – Catanzaro 0-0
20-01-13 Benevento – Catanzaro 2-0

Preview:
It will be a fierce clash between teams from Southern Italy who are strong in the third level of the local league. Benevento and Catanzaro will be part of the promotion race and the home factor is very strong here.

Markets:
Big changes with the opening odds which show bookies underestimated Benevento with the opening odds.

02.09.2014 Crawley Town - Cambridge Utd - X2 - LOST.

03.09.2014

Azerbaijan U21 - Israel U21 (Europe, Euro U21 Qualifiers)
Pick: 2
Confidence:7/10
Odds: 1.6

Preview:
Israel is chasing the second position in the group against Norway and can’t afford a mistake here.

Markets:
There is a big turnover of bets on Israel and the drop of the odds is more than expected.

01.09.2014 Otelul Galati - Rapid Bucuresti - 2 (DNB) - LOST.

02.09.2014
Crawley Town - Cambridge Utd (England, Football League Trophy)
Pick: X2
Confidence:7/10
Odds: 1.73

Head to Head
25-01-11 Crawley – Cambridge 3-0
06-02-10 Crawley – Cambridge 1-0

Preview:
The four defeats in a row have shaken Crawley and now they face another difficult task against newly promoted back in the Football League Cambridge. For the visitors the match will mean more and also their 5-0 victory over Carlisle in the weekend will bring extra confidence. It is expected that Crawley will make changes in their lineup.

Markets:
Big moves of the double chance Cambridge not to lose which makes the outcome one of the best market options today.

01.09.2014

Otelul Galati - Rapid Bucuresti (Romania, Liga 1)
Pick: 2 (DNB)
Confidence:7/10
Odds: 1.57 (Paddy Power)

Head to Head
30-07-12 Otelul – Rapid 1-1
11-12-11 Otelul – Rapid 2-0
05-03-11 Otelul – Rapid 1-0
24-04-10 Otelul – Rapid 0-0

Probable lineups
Otelul (4-2-3-1): Plopeanu – Cojoc, Šipović, Karlík, Murgoci – Cucu, V. Gheorghe – Avdić, C. Cristea, Al. Zaharia – Tudorie
Rapid (4-1-4-1): Bornescu – Savin, Tânc, Mera, N. Vasile – Negru – Cojocnean, Roşu, E. Dică, Al. Coman – Ciolacu

Preview:
Otelul won only two points since the start of the seasons and is at the bottom. The players refused to train on Thursday because of the financial crisis in the club and have threatened not to play today. In this chaos will be a miracle Otelul to win.

Markets:
Pretty big decrease of the away odds in the positioning considering the tradition. The away odds are going down and many bettors prefer the DNB option which is the best solution here.

31.08.2014

Kristiansund BK - Bryne FK (Norway, 1. Division 2014)
Pick: 1
Odds: 1.5

Genoa - Napoli (Italy, Serie A)
Pick: 2
Odds: 2

PK-35 Vantaa - FC Viikingit (Finland, Ykkonen 2014)
Pick: 1
Odds: 1.14

27.08.2014

Zaglebie Lubin - Bytovia (Poland, 1. Liga)
Pick: 1
Odds: 1.65

A low turnover so far in the international market and big interest in Poland. Therefore there is still value in the home win.

Rosario Central - Godoy Cruz (Argentina, Primera Division)
Pick: 1
Odds: 1.85

Esperance ST - US Monastir (Tunisia, Ligue Professionnelle 1)
Pick: 1
Odds: 1.44

Esperanse have collected just a point so far from two matches and they won’t make another mistake.

26.08.2014 Europe, Champions League 2014-15
20.45 (CET)
APOEL FC - AaB Aalborg
Pick: X2 @1.95

25.08.2014
CSM Studentesc Iasi - Otelul Galati (Romania, Liga 1)
Pick: 1
Confidence:7/10
Odds: 1.55

Head to Head
22-07-12 Iasi – Otelul 1-2

Probable lineups
Iasi (4-4-2): Caparco – Voicu, Cr. Munteanu, Mihalache, Vladu – Ciucur, Olah, Creţu, Boşoi – Pălimaru, Wesley
Otelul (4-2-3-1): Plopeanu – Mişelăricu, Šipović, Pecha, D. Popescu – Karlík, V. Gheorghe – Avdić, C. Cristea, Al. Zaharia – Tudorie

Preview:
It is a team between two opponents in crisis. But it is a bigger crisis with the visitors, who lost also 5 important players after the first 4 matches. Iasi, who are without a home league victory since April, will make it finally.

Markets:
A big decrease of more than 100% in Iasi in the positioning and the accumulating of the risk after opening of the market almost killed the home odds.

20.08.2014 US Monastir - AS Gabès - 1 - WON.

21.08.2014

FC Astana - Villarreal CF (Europe, Europa League 2014-15)
Pick: 2
Confidence:8/10
Odds: 1.5 (Paddy Power)

Head to Head
No matches in the last 5 seasons

Preview:
Stanimir Stoilov produced miracles with Astana, after knocking out the same team with Botev Plovdiv last season. But considering the fact this season Europa League winner will qualify for Champions League teams like Villarreal will not compromise.

Markets:
The big changes with the odds show bookies don’t have doubts who will win this match.

20.08.2014 15:30 (GMT)

US Monastir - AS Gabès (Tunisia, Ligue Professionnelle 1)
Pick: 1
Confidence:7/10
Odds: 1.95

Head to Head
30-09-12 Monastir – Gabes 1-0

Preview:
Monastir won a priceless point away to Bizertin in the first round and now will face the newcomers Gabes. The home side has a good tradition against this opponent and also the home advantage in Tunisian league is a strong factor. Only the big teams Esperanse and Club Africain could win often on the road. It is very probable home win.

Markets:
The drop of the home odds is very small and there is a value in the home odds. Maybe it is due to the fact bookies overestimate Gabes victorious start.