₦airaland Forum

What the unknown gunmen are planning is an asymmetrical/Guerrilla warfare and its very difficult to beat by even the best army in the world. Asymmetrical warfare, (a.k.a. insurgency) the technical term for this, is specifically tailored to play to the weaknesses of conventional war fighting. One of the interesting side effects of this is that it also plays to the weaknesses of conventional war leadership as well. That is to say, the personalities of generals of conventional forces are usually not well suited to the demands of asymmetrical warfare. Indeed the entire system isn’t set up for dealing with asymmetrical warfare. For that you need an entirely different mode of operation, known as counter insurgency.

With asymmetrical warfare conventional forces are faced with the following problems:

Intel is hard to come by. It’s hard to know who to shoot at and when, where leadership is located and even who the leadership is. By contrast, intel for the asymmetrical force is easy to come by. Conventional forces are easy to identify and their overall positions and relative strength are easy to discover.
The larger the military presence, the worse things get. As the regular population feels the boot of occupying conventional force more and more on their faces, they become less and less interested in either acquiescing to or supporting that force. There are also more opportunities for insurgents to find vulnerable areas to attack.
There is no way to bring conventional military strengths fully to bear on the enemy. An asymmetrical strategy never presents a conventional force in the face of superior conventional forces. They will always strive to use whatever forces they have only when they have an overwhelming local advantage.
Occupation and territorial control can be meaningless. A conventional force cannot be everywhere at once or they risk providing easy targets for insurgents. They must consolidate for their own protection. About all a conventional force can do is mount constant patrols and follow up on any leads. It’s not particularly difficult for asymmetrical forces to avoid these, particularly when these patrols are farther away from operational bases.
Success doesn’t include a sexy victory. Success against an insurgency using asymmetrical warfare doesn’t end with a bang, but with normalcy. The insurgency doesn’t surrender, it just slowly fades away from a lack of resources and success. The government functions properly, the people live normal lives and violence is manageable by ordinary policing.
And finally, it can be very difficult to establish metrics for success. Normalcy is not a number and it doesn’t lend itself to easy measurement. This is where things can go completely off the rails for conventional forces because establishing the wrong metrics can be disastrous.
The average generals (and politicians) of a conventional force are always looking for ways to declare victory and to do it as quickly as possible. The ordinary response is to “crack down” “get tough” and “end those bastards.” it’s the most appealing and also the most disastrous path you can take in counter insurgency. When combined with bad metrics for success it is absolutely guaranteed to create a monstrous clusterfuck of epic proportions.

When it comes to bad counterinsurgency, Israel is king. They are world beating champions at terrible counterinsurgency. It’s been over 45 years and they have made absolutely zero progress in pacifying Palestine. It’s still a hornet’s nest bad blood after all this time. Now Zionists will argue to death about how fanatical Palestinians are in their hatred for Israel. They’re not wrong, but they fail to recognize that this is a problem that they largely created with their own incompetence.

Israel does everything possible wrong. Large occupying forces, heavy handed responses to violence, constant destabilizing of the Palestinian economy, terrorizing and isolating of its citizens; allowing hostile settlers and then screaming bloody murder when they are er, bloodily murdered. (What exactly did they expect? Roses?)

The result? Palestine is not pacified, it’s not going to be pacified in the foreseeable future and the Israelis have no workable strategy to change this.
Any show of force will not pacify southeast but rather create bigger problems for Nigeria, if not now, in the future. It’s difficult when you are fighting a movement that led to guerrilla warfare, you can kill the people but you can’t kill the ideology. You have to attend to the ideology else, whatever you do will proliferate crisis either immediately or in future. You will create more and more monsters until everything is destroyed.

My humble submission.

He who the gods wants to kill, they first make mad

I hate how helinues reasons

Man's government has failed.

Don't forget to contact me for your thesis and dissertation writing, guys.

Workch:
What the unknown gunmen are planning is an asymmetrical/Guerrilla warfare and its very difficult to beat by even the best army in the world. Asymmetrical warfare, (a.k.a. insurgency) the technical term for this, is specifically tailored to play to the weaknesses of conventional war fighting. One of the interesting side effects of this is that it also plays to the weaknesses of conventional war leadership as well. That is to say, the personalities of generals of conventional forces are usually not well suited to the demands of asymmetrical warfare. Indeed the entire system isn’t set up for dealing with asymmetrical warfare. For that you need an entirely different mode of operation, known as counter insurgency.

With asymmetrical warfare conventional forces are faced with the following problems:

Intel is hard to come by. It’s hard to know who to shoot at and when, where leadership is located and even who the leadership is. By contrast, intel for the asymmetrical force is easy to come by. Conventional forces are easy to identify and their overall positions and relative strength are easy to discover.
The larger the military presence, the worse things get. As the regular population feels the boot of occupying conventional force more and more on their faces, they become less and less interested in either acquiescing to or supporting that force. There are also more opportunities for insurgents to find vulnerable areas to attack.
There is no way to bring conventional military strengths fully to bear on the enemy. An asymmetrical strategy never presents a conventional force in the face of superior conventional forces. They will always strive to use whatever forces they have only when they have an overwhelming local advantage.
Occupation and territorial control can be meaningless. A conventional force cannot be everywhere at once or they risk providing easy targets for insurgents. They must consolidate for their own protection. About all a conventional force can do is mount constant patrols and follow up on any leads. It’s not particularly difficult for asymmetrical forces to avoid these, particularly when these patrols are farther away from operational bases.
Success doesn’t include a sexy victory. Success against an insurgency using asymmetrical warfare doesn’t end with a bang, but with normalcy. The insurgency doesn’t surrender, it just slowly fades away from a lack of resources and success. The government functions properly, the people live normal lives and violence is manageable by ordinary policing.
And finally, it can be very difficult to establish metrics for success. Normalcy is not a number and it doesn’t lend itself to easy measurement. This is where things can go completely off the rails for conventional forces because establishing the wrong metrics can be disastrous.
The average generals (and politicians) of a conventional force are always looking for ways to declare victory and to do it as quickly as possible. The ordinary response is to “crack down” “get tough” and “end those bastards.” it’s the most appealing and also the most disastrous path you can take in counter insurgency. When combined with bad metrics for success it is absolutely guaranteed to create a monstrous clusterfuck of epic proportions.

When it comes to bad counterinsurgency, Israel is king. They are world beating champions at terrible counterinsurgency. It’s been over 45 years and they have made absolutely zero progress in pacifying Palestine. It’s still a hornet’s nest bad blood after all this time. Now Zionists will argue to death about how fanatical Palestinians are in their hatred for Israel. They’re not wrong, but they fail to recognize that this is a problem that they largely created with their own incompetence.

Israel does everything possible wrong. Large occupying forces, heavy handed responses to violence, constant destabilizing of the Palestinian economy, terrorizing and isolating of its citizens; allowing hostile settlers and then screaming bloody murder when they are er, bloodily murdered. (What exactly did they expect? Roses?)

The result? Palestine is not pacified, it’s not going to be pacified in the foreseeable future and the Israelis have no workable strategy to change this.
Any show of force will not pacify southeast but rather create bigger problems for Nigeria, if not now, in the future. It’s difficult when you are fighting a movement that led to guerrilla warfare, you can kill the people but you can’t kill the ideology. You have to attend to the ideology else, whatever you do will proliferate crisis either immediately or in future. You will create more and more monsters until everything is destroyed.

My humble submission.

FUcking brilliant piece, you sure know your stuff!

Pacify ko pacific ni, what a senseless post

NyamiriFlathead:
Pacify ko pacific ni, what a senseless post

Have you ever made any sensible contribution in this forum? Of course you can't give what you do not have.

Ode

We all know that this government doesn't have what it takes to dialogue, so we will observe who go tire. (Shey they have just 2 years)

As far as I'm concerned, we have gone past the era of one supposedly overbearing group "pacifying" and "taking care" of anyone's needs or aspirations. Why are the Igbos not being told to pacify others? We want to pacify you now. Or must you be the one to pacify the other? Why must it be the fulanis that should share the socalled "national cake"? Why must they always be on top? Are we captives? You have been sharing and pacifying since the 60s, you need to get out so someone else will share. It's a country of equals, right?

If you can not accept to let others drive the engine of state, then you need to find yourself a new republic where you can corner everything to yourself. You can not insist on a multi ethnic union while demanding that you call the shots perenially! That's madness... The idea of begging supposed equals in a Union to pacify others by giving them what's is constitutionally deu to them, can only happen in a "lords and serfs" union! The igbo will go to the table and grab what is his, ditto the Yoruba, Efik and the Igedes. Nobody should be doing anybody any favors by "pacifying" them with their rights.. It's ridiculous..

Super story

Guerilla war in a very tiny landmass region?

1 week full aerial surveillance would give all the miscreants UGM location

Both UGM and their supporters are not smart at all

helinues:
Guerilla war in a very tiny landmass region?

1 week full aerial surveillance would give all the miscreants UGM location

Both UGM and their supporters are not smart at all

sometimes I wonder if God did not put cow dunges in your brain instead of the normal fluid

owobokiri:
As far as I'm concerned, we have gone past the era of one supposedly overbearing group "pacifying" and "taking care" of anyone's needs or aspirations. Why are the Igbos not being told to pacify others? We want to pacify you now. Or must you be the one to pacify the other? Why must it be the fulanis that should share the socalled "national cake"? Why must they always be on top? Are we captives? You have been sharing and pacifying since the 60s, you need to get out so someone else will share. It's a country of equals, right?

If you can not accept to let others drive the engine of state, then you need to find yourself a new republic where you can corner everything to yourself. You can not insist on a multi ethnic union while demanding that you call the shots perenially! That's madness... The idea of begging supposed equals in a Union to pacify others by giving them what's is constitutionally deu to them, can only happen in a "lords and serfs" union! The igbo will go to the table and grab what is his, ditto the Yoruba, Efik and the Igedes. Nobody should be doing anybody any favors by "pacifying" them with their rights.. It's ridiculous..

Pacifying doesn’t necessarily means begging.
Go and read why the United States lost the Vietnam war, you cannot fight a guerrilla warfare easily even with the most sophisticated army. Same thing happened in Algeria during the Algeria civil war, it led to the collapse of the Algerian political structure.

It’s idiotic to think that this agitation will not spill the the already volatile southsouth and Southwest, the government will have a lot to on their plate if they cannot contain it. This kind of war is won based on dialogue and not with weapons.

helinues:
Guerilla war in a very tiny landmass region?

1 week full aerial surveillance would give all the miscreants UGM location

Both UGM and their supporters are not smart at all

It is moronic to think that this warfare will not spill to other parts of southern Nigeria.
The whole part of the country is already volatile.

Arda1000:
sometimes I wonder if God did not put cow dunges in your brain instead of the normal fluid

You must be talking from experience... 3daful

Workch:
It is moronic to think that this warfare will not spill to other parts of southern Nigeria.
The whole part of the country is already volatile.

Which other part of the country? Except the refugees issue that may spread to other parts of the country, as for the war, na where dem invite trouble, trouble dey stay.. Abi 1967 is saying otherwise

helinues:
Which other part of the country? Except the refugees issue that may spread to other parts of the country, as for the war, na where dem invite trouble, trouble dey stay.. Abi 1967 is saying otherwise

You are funny and you don’t know anything.
You think it’s a joking matter

Workch:
You are funny and you don’t know anything.
You think it’s a joking matter

It's not a joking matter but at the same time not something to be taken seriously...

Chicken is finally at home roosting.. Ants infested wood started their party early