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Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc - Politics - Nairaland

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Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by garfield1: 3:07pm On Jun 23, 2021
The defections of the two governors has totally killed the chances of pdp going back to aso rock in 2023.both governors are from ss/se which has traditionally given pdp its highest since the dawn of the 4th republic.just as I calculated in 2019,the pathway to a pdp victory is getting 85% in both regions and winning two other regions.in 2019 when both governors were in pdp,apc got 25% in both States but with both governors in apc now,apc will get nothing less than 35% eating up potential pdp votes.the only states pdp can hope to get bloc votes are anambra,enugu and maybe delta.whoever apc presents will still get their customary votes in kano,katsina,kebbi,jigawa,yobe,bauchi,Bornu,Niger etc.with a Yoruba man on the ticket,apc should get at least 65% in the west but with a non Yoruba,it will drop to 55%.they will still win north central narrowly while sharing votes with pdp in most parts of ss and se.

On the state level at ebonyi,I dont know apc chances of winning the guber polls but I know it is higher than that of apc in neighboring cross river.apc will surely clinch at least a senate seat,3 reps seats and over 10 assembly seats.in Cross river,apc may not win the governorships race but will produce a senator in crs north,win at least 4 reps seats and 12 assembly seats


Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Fergie001
Juliusmalema
Ojiofor
Kinematics
Afroknight
Sonoyom
Adaibeku
Vedaxcool
Oghenaogie
Ekpeitut
Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by Sammy07: 3:09pm On Jun 23, 2021
Smh
Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by sweetshisha: 3:10pm On Jun 23, 2021
With or without Umahi and Ayede PDP can't smell AsoRock again unless they rebrand and register as a new party
Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by garfield1: 3:20pm On Jun 23, 2021
sweetshisha:
With or without Umahi and Ayede PDP can't smell AsoRock again unless they rebrand and register as a new party

True.am just using them to emphasize their current state.the best thing is for them to merge with other parties
Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by sweetshisha: 3:21pm On Jun 23, 2021
garfield1:


True.am just using them to emphasize their current state.the best thing is for them to merge with other parties

With the list of INEC commissioners sent for confirmation, the list of Apealate court Justice and Supreme court justices... Buhari has everything set

PDP needs a major strategist like Obasanjo or Tinubu to join their folds
Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by vedaxcool(m): 3:22pm On Jun 23, 2021
garfield1:
The defections of the two governors has totally killed the chances of pdp going back to aso rock in 2023.both governors are from ss/se which has traditionally given pdp its highest since the dawn of the 4th republic.just as I calculated in 2019,the pathway to a pdp victory is getting 85% in both regions and winning two other regions.in 2019 when both governors were in pdp,apc got 25% in both States but with both governors in apc now,apc will get nothing less than 35% eating up potential pdp votes.the only states pdp can hope to get bloc votes are anambra,enugu and maybe delta.whoever apc presents will still get their customary votes in kano,katsina,kebbi,jigawa,yobe,bauchi,Bornu,Niger etc.with a Yoruba man on the ticket,apc should get at least 65% in the west but with a non Yoruba,it will drop to 55%.they will still win north central narrowly while sharing votes with pdp in most parts of ss and se.

On the state level at ebonyi,I dont know apc chances of winning the guber polls but I know it is higher than that of apc in neighboring cross river.apc will surely clinch at least a senate seat,3 reps seats and over 10 assembly seats.in Cross river,apc may not win the governorships race but will produce a senator in crs north,win at least 4 reps seats and 12 assembly seats


Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Fergie001
Juliusmalema
Ojiofor
Kinematics
Afroknight
Sonoyom
Adaibeku
Vedaxcool
Oghenaogie
Ekpeitut
This analysis is spot on, totally endorsed.

PDP is party defined by failure. It failed in governance it has failed in opposition. It is only good in creating insurgency, violence and looting.

1 Like

Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by chaloner(m): 3:25pm On Jun 23, 2021
So people still dey discuss about party this and that in this hole shit country..... Continue ooo
Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by donchibe: 3:27pm On Jun 23, 2021
The worst mistake PDP will make in 2023 is giving Wike VP slot. They will not get one vote from the Igbos.
Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by 222Martins(m): 3:33pm On Jun 23, 2021
The only thing keeping APC together is that they have not conducted their National convention and presidential primaries. Once these two events occur, it's decamping and cross carpeting all the way. There's also going to be a lot of In-fighting; which has already started in Imo and Kano.

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Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by garfield1: 3:43pm On Jun 23, 2021
222Martins:
The only thing keeping APC together is that they have not conducted their National convention and presidential primaries. Once these two events occur, it's decamping and cross carpeting all the way. There's also going to be a lot of In-fighting; which has already started in Imo and Kano.

What of the infighting in anambra and cross river pdp
Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by 222Martins(m): 3:55pm On Jun 23, 2021
garfield1:


What of the infighting in anambra and cross river pdp
APC is the bigger party; with more notable politicians. The in-fighting will be fiercer there than anywhere else.
Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by OBALOLA55(m): 4:03pm On Jun 23, 2021
garfield1:
The defections of the two governors has totally killed the chances of pdp going back to aso rock in 2023.both governors are from ss/se which has traditionally given pdp its highest since the dawn of the 4th republic.just as I calculated in 2019,the pathway to a pdp victory is getting 85% in both regions and winning two other regions.in 2019 when both governors were in pdp,apc got 25% in both States but with both governors in apc now,apc will get nothing less than 35% eating up potential pdp votes.the only states pdp can hope to get bloc votes are anambra,enugu and maybe delta.whoever apc presents will still get their customary votes in kano,katsina,kebbi,jigawa,yobe,bauchi,Bornu,Niger etc.with a Yoruba man on the ticket,apc should get at least 65% in the west but with a non Yoruba,it will drop to 55%.they will still win north central narrowly while sharing votes with pdp in most parts of ss and se.

On the state level at ebonyi,I dont know apc chances of winning the guber polls but I know it is higher than that of apc in neighboring cross river.apc will surely clinch at least a senate seat,3 reps seats and over 10 assembly seats.in Cross river,apc may not win the governorships race but will produce a senator in crs north,win at least 4 reps seats and 12 assembly seats


Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Fergie001
Juliusmalema
Ojiofor
Kinematics
Afroknight
Sonoyom
Adaibeku
Vedaxcool
Oghenaogie
Ekpeitit
Adadike
Juliusmalema
FrLukas
Cilicmarin
OK
Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by garfield1: 4:08pm On Jun 23, 2021
222Martins:
APC is the bigger party; with more notable politicians. The in-fighting will be fiercer there than anywhere else.

Oga,stop the infantile wishes.nothing like infighting.you basing pdp victory on a possible infighting in apc proves me right.think of how pdp will win independent of apc

1 Like

Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by Anikulhapo(m): 4:39pm On Jun 23, 2021
222Martins:
The only thing keeping APC together is that they have not conducted their National convention and presidential primaries. Once these two events occur, it's decamping and cross carpeting all the way. There's also going to be a lot of In-fighting; which has already started in Imo and Kano.
Leave the mumus make Dem dey permutate
Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by iokpebholo: 5:04pm On Jun 23, 2021
Garfield....suffer never tire u abi? Dollar #500,fuel 170,bag of rice #33,000,common transport from abuja to asaba is 13k and yet u still shouting APC abi.The next revolution is going to b hunger revolution
Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by slivertongue: 5:40pm On Jun 23, 2021
say something new nah. u have been drawing up this whirlwind assumption before their defection
Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by slivertongue: 5:41pm On Jun 23, 2021
iokpebholo:
Garfield....suffer never tire u abi? Dollar #500,fuel 170,bag of rice #33,000,common transport from abuja to asaba is 13k and yet u still shouting APC abi.The next revolution is going to b hunger revolution

he his looking for attention. &he shall get it
Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by slivertongue: 5:49pm On Jun 23, 2021
222Martins:
The only thing keeping APC together is that they have not conducted their National convention and presidential primaries. Once these two events occur, it's decamping and cross carpeting all the way. There's also going to be a lot of In-fighting; which has already started in Imo and Kano.

APC is counting on the votes of hungry &unsecured folks in the NE, NW &NC but we will speak to APC in the language that they understand
Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by garfield1: 10:33pm On Jun 23, 2021
slivertongue:


APC is counting on the votes of hungry &unsecured folks in the NE, NW &NC but we will speak to APC in the language that they understand
Like you spoke in 2019 my son
Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by garfield1: 12:03am On Jun 24, 2021
222Martins:
APC is the bigger party; with more notable politicians. The in-fighting will be fiercer there than anywhere else.

New infighting in Lagos pdp
Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by 222Martins(m): 8:50am On Jun 24, 2021
garfield1:


Oga,stop the infantile wishes.nothing like infighting.you basing pdp victory on a possible infighting in apc proves me right.think of how pdp will win independent of apc
We are analysing objectively, so no need to throw tantrums. Most notable figures in APC today were lured with one promise or the other; especially the governors. You saw what happened in Edo right? Well, that is just an isolated case in an isolated election. We will see a repeat on a larger scale in the 2023 general election, starting from the federal party level.
Re: Political Implications Of Governors Umahi And Ayade Defection To Apc by garfield1: 9:11am On Jun 24, 2021
222Martins:
We are analysing objectively, so no need to throw tantrums. Most notable figures in APC today were lured with one promise or the other; especially the governors. You saw what happened in Edo right? Well, that is just an isolated case in an isolated election. We will see a repeat on a larger scale in the 2023 general election, starting from the federal party level.

Nobody was lured.their interests simply tallied with that of apc,no more pdp.what happened in edo was normal,it is difficult to defeat an incumbent

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