₦airaland Forum

1. APC did not win 2015 because Buhari was overly popular.

APC won because PDP fought amongst themselves and destroyed itself.

The current infighting in APC may be good for Nigerians

I will give some history on how the PDP downfall started from 2012.

2. It all started 2012. The N.E zonal Congress of the PDP was held in Bauchi to elect the National Chairman.

Bamanga Tukur was GEJ anointed candidate but he lost the local election. However, three days later, all other candidates withdrew for him.

GEJ forced him in.

3. The NWC members were very annoyed. They thought he was too old. (He was in his 80s).

GEJ wanted him because he had money and could not be bought by Governors easily.

The chief opponent was the Governor of Adamawa state Murtala Nyako. They were from the same state.

4. Why did he not want Tukur as Chairman

A. Being Chairman would make Nyako the number 2 in the state
B. He believed Tukur wanted to make his son Governor in 2015

True to Nyako’s fear, the state executive committee in the party was dissolved. The NWC distanced themselves.

5. This was the spark that started all the confusion in PDP and metamorphosed into the eventual loss of PDP

The NWC reinstated the sacked executives and said the Chairman acted alone.

However, Dame Jonathan fight with Amaechi, Amaechi issues with GEJ over oil wells.

6. His rancorous relationship with the Speaker Tambuwal, sacking of Oyinlola as National secretary, GEJ 2nd term etc were all isolated cases that added to the eventual collapse

But the Tukur situation was the spark.

Let me continue the story. So....

7. Two parallel bodies were created in Adamawa.

The Governor had swore to fight the Chairman and GEJ (who he thought supported such moves)

Next bad move, Tukur suspended Amaechi. It stunned people because even though GEJ and him were enemies, it was illegal to do so without NEC.

8. Tukur had not called any NEC meeting but still suspended him anyways.

Next Governor to be suspended was Gov Wamakko of Sokoto state. Again no one was consulted.

Why were these men suspended?

Wamakko was rumored to be contesting for President and Amaechi was to be VP.

9. Wamakko also supported Nyako openly when Tukur and himself were fighting for power.

Also Amaechi spats with GEJ made the suspension of both men align with GEJ and Tukur’s interest.

What next? Other Governors revolt. They see this as a bad sign.

10. Gov. Lamido of Jigawa openly frowned at the suspensions. Also Kwankwaso of Kano

Rumbling starts....

BOT chairman, Chief Tony Anenih felt Tukur was the devil and was deceiving GEJ

Meanwhile the issue of 2nd term and the supposed gentleman’s agreement for GEJ not to contest.

11. Started raising issues.

Campaign posters were out for GEJ and he did nothing to douse the rumors of him not contesting.

Three senators and Governors were mandated to see GEJ to clear the air on that

They were Saraki, Lamido and Adamu Abdullahi

Saraki was hesitant.

12. Saraki and GEJ were not friends.

It started from Yaradua’s time when Saraki was the all powerful NGF chairman. He had more powers than GEJ who was vice then.

TO BE CONTINUED �

13. LETS CONTINUE

People regarded GEJ then as that lucky guy.

But Yar’adua, the ever wise President then was aware of things and asked Saraki (He is on Twitter. He can confirm) to discuss with GEJ.

GEJ said “No problem, your excellency”

But after Yar’Asia’s demise,

14. GEJ was made to remember some of the role Saraki contributed in the political bedlam during Yar’adua’s sickness.

Later, Saraki even met GEJ at the villa to ask him why EFCC was harassing him and his family. GEJ feigned ignorance.

But he barely left the villa when SFU

15. unit declared him wanted. SFU is Special Fraud Unit.

Let’s not deviate.

So those men met GEJ. Lamido, Abdullahi and Saraki. They came back upset.

Why? GEJ kept them waiting for hours. And gave them a “I don’t give a Bleep” attitude about the gentleman’s agreement


16. A G-7 of aggrieved governors was formed.

They were Adamawa, Kano, Niger, Jigawa, Kwara, Rivers and Sokoto.

They were headed by Baraje.

They would be the n-PDP

They either hated Tukur or were against GEJ 2nd term.

17. Their plan was to mobilize against GEJ nationwide.

Saraki wanted someone else to defeat GEJ at the primaries.

Amaechi wanted to leave the PDP outrightly.

Others were undecided.


18. PDP convention came, all 7 Governors planned a walk-out.

Atiku gets to hear of this. He wants to be part of it.

The others are reluctant to include him especial Nyako. They include him in the plans anyways.

Meanwhile, the newly formed APC can’t believe their luck!


19. The n-PDP did not want to leave PDP save Amaechi

They just wanted to force GEJ hand so he sacks Tukur and a renegotiation of 2015.

But things get out of hand very quickly.

57 out of 204 PDP lawmakers swear allegiance to n-PDP

Anenih panics and tries to talk sense to GEJ

20. Tukur instead fights the G-7 and suspends the state executives in Kano and others.

It explodes and they all walk into APC.

Just like that (without a single vote cast) APC got the big 3 Kano, Rivers and Lagos (Lagos was always APC)

Game over.

THE END!

Your analysis is apt, I must say.

What of 2019?

I don’t care how this may sound or whose emotions might be hurt, I wholly blame GEJ for the demise of PDP and the current state of our nation. Buhari has no business with governance. GEJ’s super laxity brought this man. GEJ was weak, unintelligent and naive.

He ruined PDP!

So true

People need to understand this politics is a game of numbers and that's what it is simply

Without maintaining the Buhari popularity in the core north there is no way APC can retain sit ... everyone who has been to the north knows that when Buhari is on the ballot is different from when he is not

His candidates for governorship , senatorial sits don't usually pull same votes he pulls even after raising their hands

Say APC brings tinubu/osibanjo or even elrufi ...and PDP produce tambuwal/atiku/sariki ...

No person can win north like Buhari ...say APC wins 70% of core north that's a big failure ...if PDP had 25% of core north votes (NE/NW) they would have won 2015/2019 ...the key to APC victory is 85% minimum in the NE/NW region which is absolutely impossible

APC is weak in the middle belt we saw that in 2019 ...might lose ekiti and osun ...

I don't really see APC wining this one even if PDP present an Igbo man

Please give us more

ENIGMATIC2023:
1. APC did not win 2015 because Buhari was overly popular.

APC won because PDP fought amongst themselves and destroyed itself.

The current infighting in APC may be good for Nigerians

I will give some history on how the PDP downfall started from 2012.

2. It all started 2012. The N.E zonal Congress of the PDP was held in Bauchi to elect the National Chairman.

Bamanga Tukur was GEJ anointed candidate but he lost the local election. However, three days later, all other candidates withdrew for him.

GEJ forced him in.

3. The NWC members were very annoyed. They thought he was too old. (He was in his 80s).

GEJ wanted him because he had money and could not be bought by Governors easily.

The chief opponent was the Governor of Adamawa state Murtala Nyako. They were from the same state.

4. Why did he not want Tukur as Chairman

A. Being Chairman would make Nyako the number 2 in the state
B. He believed Tukur wanted to make his son Governor in 2015

True to Nyako’s fear, the state executive committee in the party was dissolved. The NWC distanced themselves.

5. This was the spark that started all the confusion in PDP and metamorphosed into the eventual loss of PDP

The NWC reinstated the sacked executives and said the Chairman acted alone.

However, Dame Jonathan fight with Amaechi, Amaechi issues with GEJ over oil wells.

6. His rancorous relationship with the Speaker Tambuwal, sacking of Oyinlola as National secretary, GEJ 2nd term etc were all isolated cases that added to the eventual collapse

But the Tukur situation was the spark.

Let me continue the story. So....

7. Two parallel bodies were created in Adamawa.

The Governor had swore to fight the Chairman and GEJ (who he thought supported such moves)

Next bad move, Tukur suspended Amaechi. It stunned people because even though GEJ and him were enemies, it was illegal to do so without NEC.

8. Tukur had not called any NEC meeting but still suspended him anyways.

Next Governor to be suspended was Gov Wamakko of Sokoto state. Again no one was consulted.

Why were these men suspended?

Wamakko was rumored to be contesting for President and Amaechi was to be VP.

9. Wamakko also supported Nyako openly when Tukur and himself were fighting for power.

Also Amaechi spats with GEJ made the suspension of both men align with GEJ and Tukur’s interest.

What next? Other Governors revolt. They see this as a bad sign.

10. Gov. Lamido of Jigawa openly frowned at the suspensions. Also Kwankwaso of Kano

Rumbling starts....

BOT chairman, Chief Tony Anenih felt Tukur was the devil and was deceiving GEJ

Meanwhile the issue of 2nd term and the supposed gentleman’s agreement for GEJ not to contest.

11. Started raising issues.

Campaign posters were out for GEJ and he did nothing to douse the rumors of him not contesting.

Three senators and Governors were mandated to see GEJ to clear the air on that

They were Saraki, Lamido and Adamu Abdullahi

Saraki was hesitant.

12. Saraki and GEJ were not friends.

It started from Yaradua’s time when Saraki was the all powerful NGF chairman. He had more powers than GEJ who was vice then.

TO BE CONTINUED �

13. LETS CONTINUE

People regarded GEJ then as that lucky guy.

But Yar’adua, the ever wise President then was aware of things and asked Saraki (He is on Twitter. He can confirm) to discuss with GEJ.

GEJ said “No problem, your excellency”

But after Yar’Asia’s demise,

14. GEJ was made to remember some of the role Saraki contributed in the political bedlam during Yar’adua’s sickness.

Later, Saraki even met GEJ at the villa to ask him why EFCC was harassing him and his family. GEJ feigned ignorance.

But he barely left the villa when SFU

15. unit declared him wanted. SFU is Special Fraud Unit.

Let’s not deviate.

So those men met GEJ. Lamido, Abdullahi and Saraki. They came back upset.

Why? GEJ kept them waiting for hours. And gave them a “I don’t give a Bleep” attitude about the gentleman’s agreement


16. A G-7 of aggrieved governors was formed.

They were Adamawa, Kano, Niger, Jigawa, Kwara, Rivers and Sokoto.

They were headed by Baraje.

They would be the n-PDP

They either hated Tukur or were against GEJ 2nd term.

17. Their plan was to mobilize against GEJ nationwide.

Saraki wanted someone else to defeat GEJ at the primaries.

Amaechi wanted to leave the PDP outrightly.

Others were undecided.


18. PDP convention came, all 7 Governors planned a walk-out.

Atiku gets to hear of this. He wants to be part of it.

The others are reluctant to include him especial Nyako. They include him in the plans anyways.

Meanwhile, the newly formed APC can’t believe their luck!


19. The n-PDP did not want to leave PDP save Amaechi

They just wanted to force GEJ hand so he sacks Tukur and a renegotiation of 2015.

But things get out of hand very quickly.

57 out of 204 PDP lawmakers swear allegiance to n-PDP

Anenih panics and tries to talk sense to GEJ

20. Tukur instead fights the G-7 and suspends the state executives in Kano and others.

It explodes and they all walk into APC.

Just like that (without a single vote cast) APC got the big 3 Kano, Rivers and Lagos (Lagos was always APC)

Game over.

THE END!

You see...

mrvitalis:
People need to understand this politics is a game of numbers and that's what it is simply

Without maintaining the Buhari popularity in the core north there is no way APC can retain sit ... everyone who has been to the north knows that when Buhari is on the ballot is different from when he is not

His candidates for governorship , senatorial sits don't usually pull same votes he pulls even after raising their hands

Say APC brings tinubu/osibanjo or even elrufi ...and PDP produce tambuwal/atiku/sariki ...

No person can win north like Buhari ...say APC wins 70% of core north that's a big failure ...if PDP had 25% of core north votes (NE/NW) they would have won 2015/2019 ...the key to APC victory is 85% minimum in the NE/NW region which is absolutely impossible

APC is weak in the middle belt we saw that in 2019 ...might lose ekiti and osun ...

I don't really see APC wining this one even if PDP present an Igbo man

If APC gets 70% of core North votes, get 50-55% in the middle belt, and get 80% in the SW then they have won.

Anyone that get that amount In core North and SW will be declared winner coz the numbers is just too much for SS+SE to offset especially considering the registered voters phenomenon.

We just need to support Kanu with no referendum no election in 2023 and the SE numbers won’t be even up to Kano vote alone.

LegendHero:
If APC gets 70% of core North votes, get 50-55% in the middle belt, and get 80% in the SW then they have won.

Anyone that get that amount In core North and SW will be declared winner coz the numbers is just too much for SS+SE to offset especially considering the registered voters phenomenon.

We just need to support Kanu with no referendum no election in 2023 and the SE numbers won’t be even up to Kano vote alone.

Apc will be lucky to get 25% votes from the North..
The middle belt is even the worst .. Apc ain’t get nothing

This time the Yoruba southwest is joker.. votes from there won’t add up votes from FCT.

You know the guy you quoted, maybe been long he visted North..

The Buhari right now is an enemy of the north and Apc is party non grata.. in the North

I believe Tinubu campaign group and Yoruba people living in the north should be giving sincere updates.

Bay hair was at Kawo .. and you see people doing g their daily buying and selling . .. in Zaria the abuse him..

Even tho , the North still loves him as their own .. but he messed up with his party and brought deep tribal division.

Apc got nothing on 2023.. talk more of Tinubu..

Power will definitely return North... right now even Atiku is not sure in the North.

Saraki and kwankwanso are fast becoming northern favorites..

LegendHero:
If APC gets 70% of core North votes, get 50-55% in the middle belt, and get 80% in the SW then they have won.

Anyone that get that amount In core North and SW will be declared winner coz the numbers is just too much for SS+SE to offset especially considering the registered voters phenomenon.

We just need to support Kanu with no referendum no election in 2023 and the SE numbers won’t be even up to Kano vote alone.

It's impossible to get 70% in the core norths thats the issue sir north west yes but that's even failure .. north east they can barely get 60% say 65% at most which is bad

50% of north central ? Lmao ...so that's zero net votes ... which is useless or Almost useless in an election

80% on south west ? Best they can get in Lagos is 55% ...that already is big issue ...ondo has always been split at best ...oyo would be split too ..so max is 60%

The thing is if APC got 70% in core north in 2019 PDP would have won easily

mrvitalis:
It's impossible to get 70% in the core norths thats the issue sir north west yes but that's even failure .. north east they can barely get 60% say 65% at most which is bad

50% of north central ? Lmao ...so that's zero net votes ... which is useless or Almost useless in an election

80% on south west ? Best they can get in Lagos is 55% ...that already is big issue ...ondo has always been split at best ...oyo would be split too ..so max is 60%

The thing is if APC got 70% in core north in 2019 PDP would have won easily

You don’t understand the Yorubas in terms of voting especially when one of us is on the ballot.

Check the elections since 1959 and you will see the pattern at every instance when a Yoruba man is on the ballot.

If PDP mistakenly field Atiku in 2023, Tinubu is getting nothing less than 80% in the SW in 2023. You see all those Yorubas that you think hate Tinubu in the media, you will see film on Election Day.

Whether Ondo, Lagos, Oyo, or Kwara, the gross vote that Tinubu will get in the SW will not be less than 80%. Go and write that down.

Lol. You think Tinubu will get 55% of votes in Tinubu lagos when he is on the ballot paper? It’s obvious you guys don’t know anything about politics.

If Tinubu will get 55% in Lagos then that means he will get 45% in Anambra in 2023. If you’re banking on Igbo votes against him in lagos, there is a formulae for that. We used it in 1979, 1983, 1993, 1999, so in 2023 you will see movie.

Beautiful bunkum

helinues:
Beautiful bunkum

Did you read that thread on mental illness of Nigerians ?

You should talk to someone if at 4am you think arguing politics is what you should be doing.

See a specialist please sir

KingOfTheDamned:
Did you read that thread on mental illness of Nigerians ?

You should talk to someone if at 4am you think arguing politics is what you should be doing.

See a specialist please sir

Mr kettle, remove the logs in your eyes

Stop making trolling a profession

LegendHero:
You don’t understand the Yorubas in terms of voting especially when one of us is on the ballot.

Check the elections since 1959 and you will see the pattern at every instance when a Yoruba man is on the ballot.

If PDP mistakenly field Atiku in 2023, Tinubu is getting nothing less than 80% in the SW in 2023. You see all those Yorubas that you think hate Tinubu in the media, you will see film on Election Day.

Whether Ondo, Lagos, Oyo, or Kwara, the gross vote that Tinubu will get in the SW will not be less than 80%. Go and write that down.

Lol. You think Tinubu will get 55% of votes in Tinubu lagos when he is on the ballot paper? It’s obvious you guys don’t know anything about politics.

If Tinubu will get 55% in Lagos then that means he will get 45% in Anambra in 2023. If you’re banking on Igbo votes against him in lagos, there is a formulae for that. We used it in 1979, 1983, 1993, 1999, so in 2023 you will see movie.

Osibanjo yes ...but tinubu can't get 60% of votes in Lagos even relax

If the election is near credible, Tinubu won't get more than 55% in Lagos!

mrvitalis:
Osibanjo yes ...but tinubu can't get 60% of votes in Lagos even relax

mrvitalis:
Osibanjo yes ...but tinubu can't get 60% of votes in Lagos even relax

Then Tinubu will beg 60% of the votes in Anambra.

So relax bro.

LegendHero:
You don’t understand the Yorubas in terms of voting especially when one of us is on the ballot.

Check the elections since 1959 and you will see the pattern at every instance when a Yoruba man is on the ballot.

If PDP mistakenly field Atiku in 2023, Tinubu is getting nothing less than 80% in the SW in 2023. You see all those Yorubas that you think hate Tinubu in the media, you will see film on Election Day.

Whether Ondo, Lagos, Oyo, or Kwara, the gross vote that Tinubu will get in the SW will not be less than 80%. Go and write that down.

Lol. You think Tinubu will get 55% of votes in Tinubu lagos when he is on the ballot paper? It’s obvious you guys don’t know anything about politics.

If Tinubu will get 55% in Lagos then that means he will get 45% in Anambra in 2023. If you’re banking on Igbo votes against him in lagos, there is a formulae for that. We used it in 1979, 1983, 1993, 1999, so in 2023 you will see movie.

Just know that lagos state voting pattern have change let say since 2015. Don't forget Osinbajo lost his ward in 2019, the population of other tribe is increasing everyday in lagos and it's affecting yoruba voting pattern.

DMerciful:
If the election is near credible, Tinubu won't get more than 55% in Lagos!

Credible election Tinubu will struggle to get 20% vote in lagos

They won because most Nigerians without thinking wanted anything but GEJ.