₦airaland Forum

Dangote for president

For a state that's trying to redefine its status as world's mega city. This is a huge letdown, considering the amount of harm this thing is going to inflict to the environment.

JavaScript90:
Great. But this project should be sited at a major oil producing state like Imo state with the likes of shell anoh gas project not at Lagos. He should source for his oil from the 30 liters of oil Lagos produce. SMH for NIGERIA

You mean where they will demand for money needed for all their ancestors and the generations yet unborn just to get a piece of land?

NNPC CERTIFIED CRUDE OIL & AGO (DIESEL)AVAILABLE(10kmt & above) COMMERCIAL QUANTITY SERIOUS BUYERS & ENQUIRIES ONLY.

JavaScript90:
Great. But this project should be sited at a major oil producing state like Imo state with the likes of shell anoh gas project not at Lagos. He should source for his oil from the 30 liters of oil Lagos produce. SMH for NIGERIA

Make dem for burn am abi if small disagreement come? Abi you nor dey see waitn dey happen for that region

ryloy:
Dangote Refinery: Roaring to Life on the Lagos Blue Sky

Roaring to life meaning it has been processing how many barrels per day for how many weeks/months already?
Or this is just propaganda to justify the NNPC investment into this phantom project since 2013

jerrybone:
It was hailed as the best thing to happen in the oil and gas sector especially in Nigeria – a serial importer of crude products. The year was 2013 and in September of that year, Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man, announced yet another of his gargantuan projects – the construction of the biggest single train refinery in the world with production expected to begin in 2016. Many delays and postponements later, the project has been bogged down by barely serviceable debts, poor planning, lack of centralized project management, mismanagement and has now become a huge albatross on Nigeria’s neck costing the country lots of FX and creating huge problems in return.

VALUATION

A project that started as a 9billion dollars project is now being valued at over 16 billion dollars, albeit incorrectly. Sampling expert opinion from leading players in the oil & Gas industry, it is estimated that a refinery of that size should ideally cost within the range of 11 to 12 billion dollars to build in Nigeria. Notwithstanding the conflicting figures, it was recently announced that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, will be taking a 20% stake in the uncompleted, non-functional Dangote Refinery at the cost of 3.8billion dollars. Whilst this baffled many, NNPC’s actions effectively over-valued the yet to be completed refinery to 19billion dollars.

PROJECT DELAYS OR PROJECT DELAY-ED

As at last count, the completion of the refinery had been moved eight times. Whilst some might say this is in character for Dangote Industries and their numerous projects across different sectors, the problem is deeper rooted. A contractor at the delayed refinery project, speaking under the condition of anonymity said that poor planning, underpayment of contractors, and a lack of proper project management with over 40 contractors on site has led to most of the delays. He also added that of the 40, none is willing to commission as there is no clear delegation of duty and over-decentralization leading to absolute chaos.

With these incessant delays, Banks are already calling in their loans. At the announcement of the project in 2013, Mr. Dangote said he had secured financing of 3.3billion dollars. This debt burden has now risen to 7billion dollars with debt servicing of almost 700million dollars per annum. Whilst Mr. Dangote has been able to restructure the facilities from various local and international banks twice so far, most banks have totally refused to restructure for the third time with principal repayment also falling due - as well as the annual interest payments.

Things have gotten so bad for the billionaire that even income from his other businesses are barely enough to cover the interest rates talk less of the principal. This has led Mr. Dangote to seek innovative ways, including state capture, to prop up his business now that the refinery project has been consistently delayed and he has run out of money to repay. Enter the NNPC Connection, Nigeria’s controversial PIB Amendment and the Crude Swap Saga.

THE NNPC CONNECTION – BAILING OUT THE UNBAILABLE

After taking FX at concessionary rates from the CBN, Nigeria is inexplicably tied at the apron strings to Mr. Dangote’s now-threatened refinery. Estimates by professional industry analysts and those close to the project put its completion date in 2024 or 2025.

Recently, the NNPC announced, under some obscure arrangement, that it was taking a 20% equity in the Dangote refinery at 3.8billion dollars. The NNPC was later to explain that it was giving only 1 billion in cash and the balance in crude.

Whilst this is a welcome development, Mr. Dangote will have a hard time doing anything tangible with the 1billion dollars cash which is barely enough to cover one years’ interest. With some principal payments falling due and the banks’ unwillingness to restructure in the face of an estimated completion timeline of 2024 at the earliest, Messrs. Dangote will need at least 3 to 4 billion to complete the project over the next few years even with this bailout. Both the way the refinery project has been carried out, and this subsequent NNPC bailout for Dangote refinery has turned Nigeria into a laughingstock on the global stage.

As for the controversial PIB bill currently before the Nigerian National Assembly, it is now clear to keen watchers that the reason the government wants to give a monopoly of importation for petroleum products into the country to Messrs. Dangote is so he can make the excessive and extra profits he needs to manage his rising debt profile for the refinery (under the guise of ongoing refinery projects). Guess who will bear the brunt of the higher costs in petroleum products at a time when subsidies are being reduced? The Nigerian people.

With his refinery project costs way overboard, banks breathing down his neck and NNPC’s strange bailout seemingly meagre to take care of the principal and interest payments for his debts, is the Dangote Refinery a dead project even before it is completed, or will time be kind and permit the completion of this project to which Nigeria has mortgaged huge FX from its treasury to see it kick off in good time? The chicken has come home to roost, it may seem.

Finally, with the one billion dollars going towards the repayment of principal and interests which are falling due in August, the manipulations by NNPC and politicians at the National Assembly has now become clear for all to see… As it stands, some government agencies and politicians are more than willing to mortgage the interests of the nation and masses to bail out the unbailable refinery project. Welcome to the Republic of Dangote!

David Bako is a seasoned Economist writing from Abuja
https://investorsreel.com/dangote-refinery-bailing-out-the-unbailable-funding-or-bailout/

LegendHero:
So your people can just go there and burn it down if any single thing goes wrong?

Businessmen need security and stability. Even you yourself won’t establish your mega refinery in Imo if you have one.

Who destroyed the refineries we have today? They were all destroyed during the jun 12 protest when Abiola lost.

PeaceJoyLove:
So, you expect an hausa man to go to where he knows can remove itself from Nigeria. Hahahha. Una no serious at all. You keep shouting Ipob this and that...blowing pipes here and there, and you still expect him to carry himself there so you can mess him up. It wont work. Now tell me who Dangote will support in 2023? It is obvious...it is Tinubu. Even Femi Otedola. All those billionaires are behind him cos they know he is a real business man. But you will never see Tinubu on camera there ...but he goes there secretly too. Lol. Maybe during inauguration you will see him.

Mind you, Dangote needs to export out, so he needs the nearest place to the port. Despite Lagos being the best option, he felt it would be too costly, so he approached the nearest state to Lagos which is Ogun. If you hear the amount Amosun the Ogun State gov wanted to collect from him, the cut he wanted, you sef will know some people are just id.iots. Go and read the recent outburst of the present ovum gov about Amosun. That Amosun killed Ogun State. That Amosun should be stoned.

The same Tinubu that everyone is accusing now rushed to Dangote and told him to come to Lagos. They took him right to where Free trade zone is and gave him so much incentives. Dangote was perplexed that he didnt know anyone in Nigeria can be business minded like Tinubu. If we were to leave it with the gov them....hahahaha..the gov too would have put useless charges...but oga at the top who is Tinubu is the one who handled it, and the governor just followed up. Oga talked, gov followed. No disobeying oga's words.

Oga, no one will ever support Dangote like how Lagos state supported him. Ordinary farm he wanted in Kebbi or so (not sure), but I know it is in the same north where he came from, if you hear the demands of the governor, he just walked away.

Now, states and their governors are beginning to see why it is good not to put profit forward. Those governors always act like prodigal sons who haven't seen wealth whenever they hear Dangote is around the corner.

Even FG did not give support at the onset cos dem dey "beef" Lagos. But when they saw that it is reality and after APC had taken over, Tinubu had to call Dangote to relax and allow Federal Government too gets its share. That was how NNPC got some % from the deal also.

See eh! Eyes dey inside the project. All you people just shouting Tinubu this, Tinubu that dont know anything
I do not support the man called Tinubu cos I know there are more brilliant minds....but let me tell you...he is smart. So, you all think Tinubu does not have enough cut from the deal through various channels? Later you all will start asking how he got his money. Lol. It is done everywhere in the world. Femi Otedola who is always in the picture knows he is going to be on Forbes soon as a billionaire. Lol.

Do you know what is in that place he built his refinery?

There is an airport (ongoing). There is also a sea port there (ongoing). And Lagos knows that the refinery will make Lekki Seaport and Airport be realities. Now imagine two international airports and seaports in only Lagos. One international airport in IKEA and another in Lekki. One seaport in Apapa and another in Lekki. Hmmmm. Una dey use Lagos compare your oil states. I keep telling you all...sea is the ma.ddest money ever. What is oil?

I pray God blesses me to have my ship soon. I will rather invest in buying a ship than an aeroplanes. That ocean is the secret of Lagos money. Is there no other ocean in the SS? Why have they not built it well? They will keep referring to FG. Lol. Cant they step on toes, take oil money by fire and force and build their SaaS ports ...nope. they will just be shouting IPOB...and then they appoint governors who go there to steal. Yes, Tinubu is a thief to many, but look at his works. He has his cuts there, but doing it. Your governors are busy looting anyhow. Lol.

3 mins drive to his refinery from airport. Hotels dey there. See as the whole of Lekki, Ajah down to Epe will turn to a big city with 5 stars hotels everywhere.

If you were Dangote, would you go to the IPOB area? Make dem continue shouting Nnamdi Kanu is their another saviour na.

You even called Imo of all states. So, its that your former governor Okorocha who used your money build statues that can reason well? Or this present governor Hope that will reason like a real human? I can bet you, the foundation of that refinery would have been blown up like 5 times. Continue shouting Biafra na. Continue shouting Nnamdi Kanu. If you like, continue yelling Orji Kalu, Ayim, and that useless gov of that state coming out again.

If it's just this Dangote project, Tinubu is better than all those useless mofos ibos are presenting. Go and bring Charles Soludo and let's talk. If you say he is already a gov, then relax and go to Delta and bring Pat Utomi on board. Though from Delta but an ibo friend. Yes na. But una want us vote you in, una dey bring useless failures. As corrupt as you say Tinubu may be, he is 100 billion times better than all the politicians ibo is presenting. Even better than Jonathan.

even as an Igbo man,I agree with you.

Panda7:
Dangote for president

Shallow mindedness of 200 million mumus on display
How has Dangote helped Nigeria, versus the benefits he has received from various governments since 1999?
Do you know

Is Dangote the only private citizen that could have raised up a refinery business? I am sure that there are many others in Nigeria, so why is he the only one to have done so?

angelfallz:
2000km away from Lagos? That is really far.

Would it not be more expensive to transport the crude? And buying crude from another country when Nigeria has its own crude, sounds counter productive, don't you think?

We may never the true reasons why Dangote chose Lagos state to site his refinery.

It's a straight forward business. The crude will be loaded on a ship. And unloaded straight to the refinery...very cheap.

There's a sub sea pipeline that connect Lagos to SS. He could transport through that. But if there's disruption which I believe there will be in the long run with the nature of the SS boys.

Foreign crude would offset that supply.

WHAT FACTS RE YOU POINTING OUT , OGA AMNT IBO BUT FROM OIL PRODUCING STATE , ME PERSONALLY AMNOT OBSERVING ANY MONOPOLY ,WHAT I SEE IS JUST A MAN WHO PREFER TO CREATE SOMETHING INSTEAD OF PLACING HIS MONEY IN THE BANK TO GENERATE INTEREST UNLIKE WHAT ALOT RICH PEOPLE RE DOING IN THIS COUNTRY , IF ISNT OKAY WITH YOU PLEASE HUG THE NEAREST TRANSFORMER AND PRAY NOT TO COME BACK TO LIFE AS NIGERIAN SO THAT YOU WOULDNT VE ANY THING TO DO WITH DANGOTE AND HIS MOPOLY WAY OF LIFE, THANKS

jaxxy:
I don’t support nonsense even if it’s my family. I’m not even a bigot cos I have parents from 2 distinct tribes. I just saying facts as I see them.

JavaScript90:
Great. But this project should be sited at a major oil producing state like Imo state with the likes of shell anoh gas project not at Lagos. He should source for his oil from the 30 liters of oil Lagos produce. SMH for NIGERIA

Imo has a lot of gas,especially around the Oguta axis ,some of which might be flared right now, but not much oil like that, I remember one of our Dr did a survey among us Engineers in school then where a private refinery should be sited, even long before Alhaji thought of the LFTZ , although I choose Epe but the consensus was the Lekki area, which is close to where I choose ... because proximity to market far out weight proximity to raw material at that time, which was a period of serious crisis in the Niger Delta. Anyway Akwa Ibom looks like a peaceful state, so if there is need for more expansion in Nigeria , I am very sure Alhaji would consider Akwa Ibom ....#make you na dey peaceful and friendly e get why.

BiafranPatriot:
Dont tell them...Remember its IGR even if their people are dying. Its IGR.

But when you are praying that government should revive the dead refineries in Kaduna, Port Harcourt & co. you knew the people in those states will be dying by pollution from the refineries isn't it?

Alusiizizi:
Is Dangote the only private citizen that could have raised up a refinery business? I am sure that there are many others in Nigeria, so why is he the only one to have done so?

During Obasanjo era. About 15 companies were issued license to build refinery they bought the license with a view of reselling it at a higher profit. Others were scared to initiate such project.

JavaScript90:
Great. But this project should be sited at a major oil producing state like Imo state with the likes of shell anoh gas project not at Lagos. He should source for his oil from the 30 liters of oil Lagos produce. SMH for NIGERIA

All of u are paid agent

When well this dangote refinery start working? So I go fit apply for work there.

headSmasher:
Hehehehehe so that IPOB cannibals mkpurumiri addicts amaka can turn the place to warzone

Don't mind him.

JavaScript90:
Great. But this project should be sited at a major oil producing state like Imo state with the likes of shell anoh gas project not at Lagos. He should source for his oil from the 30 liters of oil Lagos produce. SMH for NIGERIA

Every wise investors rather setup where the investment is safer. Let the Igbos keep destroying their future with self inflicted injuries

aribisala0:
You are ignorant. He can buy /source his oil from ANYWHERE.
Why should it be sited in a major oil producing state?
Why not in a major petrol consuming state. That is a business decision. Dangote's decision
Just like Nigeria is importing petrol today there are other countries that import petrol and he could export his product. He is not even obliged to sell in Nigeria

India has the largest refinery in the world. It imports its oil
It is one of the largest consumers in the world.
Industries may site close to raw materials or close to market or anywhere else
Europe does not produce any Cocoa but produces more chocolate than Africa.Why?
Purge yourself of hatred, bitterness and envy

Wow!!
So many likes? Why na, I no even think say I dey make sense like that .

Thank you
Daalu
Obe
Anya
Avo
uwese
Ubana
obe
Anya

JavaScript90:
Great. But this project should be sited at a major oil producing state like Imo state with the likes of shell anoh gas project not at Lagos. He should source for his oil from the 30 liters of oil Lagos produce. SMH for NIGERIA

So that ipob lazy braindead miscreants and terrorists will blow it up abi

The pollution is what worries me.

Lagos is already a heavily polluted state. Now, comes a refinery to add more to our problems.

tempusfugit:
WHAT FACTS RE YOU POINTING OUT , OGA AMNT IBO BUT FROM OIL PRODUCING STATE , ME PERSONALLY AMNOT OBSERVING ANY MONOPOLY ,WHAT I SEE IS JUST A MAN WHO PREFER TO CREATE SOMETHING INSTEAD OF PLACING HIS MONEY IN THE BANK TO GENERATE INTEREST UNLIKE WHAT ALOT RICH PEOPLE RE DOING IN THIS COUNTRY , IF ISNT OKAY WITH YOU PLEASE HUG THE NEAREST TRANSFORMER AND PRAY NOT TO COME BACK TO LIFE AS NIGERIAN SO THAT YOU WOULDNT VE ANY THING TO DO WITH DANGOTE AND HIS MOPOLY WAY OF LIFE, THANKS

Then why attack bua, and try to put clauses to favor just him and prevent healthy competition in the PIB?

It’s a known fact dangote benefited from monopoly right from military era. It’s not a crime bt an unfair practice.

JavaScript90:
Great. But this project should be sited at a major oil producing state like Imo state with the likes of shell anoh gas project not at Lagos. He should source for his oil from the 30 liters of oil Lagos produce. SMH for NIGERIA

The man is a business man . HE knows what is good for him.

jaxxy:
He stopped others just go and try it on his scale or to compete with him and see what happens.

Then he tried to fix clauses in PIB for monopoly for his refinery. Or is that competition also? Lmao

Lol... he dosen't even have the power to stop others, see he his a business man competing and tryna best and beat others out of the business is like eating dinner to him. Its pathetic that those that call themselves business oriented don't even know this. The fact that its not illegal for me to start producing cement today and compete with him means that he did and cannot stop anyone, though he even has all the advantage.... i mean we are in a fucking capitalist system here...ideas, favours, capital and competition does it not the brotherhood

And did he suceed with the refinery monopolizing business?

Vanzcharles:
Who destroyed the refineries we have today? They were all destroyed during the jun 12 protest when Abiola lost.

That is a BIG Lie!

marsman:
Lol... he dosen't even have the power to stop others, see he his a business man competing and tryna best and beat others out of the business is like eating dinner to him. Its pathetic that those that call themselves business oriented don't even know this. The that fact its not illegal for me to start producing cement today and compete him means that he did and cannot stop anyone, though he even has all the advantage.... i mean we are in a fucking capitalism here...ideas, favours, capital and competition does it not the brotherhood

And did he suceed with the refinery monopolizing business?

Captalism I can understand cos u compete and win bt monopoly is using unfair leverage and government influence to make sure u are ontop to frustrate weaker ones in same sectors. U get waivers and preferential treatment others can’t and won’t afford.

That’s different from capitalism.

angelfallz:
Why import something that you already have?

The cost of buying it and then importing it, would be passed on to the consumers, that is you and I.

Dangote doesn't own Nigeria oil, he needs to buy it from Nigeria ND if Nigeria doesn't come with a suitable deal it's best to buy elsewhere, this is business.

SarkinYarki:
Where will he get crude from?

Don't always rush to comment, read and digest comments too

angelfallz:
2000km away from Lagos? That is really far.

Would it not be more expensive to transport the crude? And buying crude from another country when Nigeria has its own crude, sounds counter productive, don't you think?

We may never the true reasons why Dangote chose Lagos state to site his refinery.

I wonder whether you have already made up your mind
You say 2000km
Whether it be the crude or it be the refined products traveling to market that 2000km would have to be travelled .It then comes down to ANALYSIS of DATA. to make the OPTIMAL BUSINESS CHOICE That is the responsibility of Dangote. It is his busines
Sounds counter productive does not make it so
There are so many reasons and scenaros why this can happen. It is important to make a distinction between Dangote's business and Nigeria they are not the same thing .Those blind spots lead to inaccurate thinking
Depending on geography and Logistics it may make sense for the same country to sell and buy crude

This is not a theoretical speculation.
Is it happening anywhere? YES The USA is a very good example . So let us not rely on gut feelings or how things "sound" but base our conclusions on fact an figures based analysis

JavaScript90:
Great. But this project should be sited at a major oil producing state like Imo state with the likes of shell anoh gas project not at Lagos. He should source for his oil from the 30 liters of oil Lagos produce. SMH for NIGERIA

I am very sure that you don't actually mean what you wrote. You are very intelligent and exposed on this matter. Being the first person to comment, you just wanted to generate traffic and start a debate on this topic. You know Imo State does not have Ocean, you refused to mention Rivers, Bayelsa or Delta but Imo.