₦airaland Forum

alsudan:
Voted for that ticket in the last elections, but won’t be doing same if it’s repeated.

There will also be a massive Boycott of PDP in the SE/SW/SS and parts of the NC where I come from, some might even vote APC depending on who they present as candidate.

Another Fulani man after Buhari is a No No!

Frigga13:
They won’t allow it..

Like you don’t know yoruba people ..

Or do you think they believe NBS statistics and will die for it for nothing

Yoruba fear so many things about Nigeria

The only tribe that won’t mind oduduwA head to be sacrificed on top Nigeria

amuwo1980:
They must allow it this time and they have nothing to fear , all they have to lose is their inherent tribalism and vacuous sense of superiority but their manpower should be brought to bear on all the economic challenges across nigeria and the country will grow , not parties everyday with stolen funds

limeta:
Fulani must be their master
Una no dey tire
Must fulani rule you all your life

Frigga13:
Why Yoruba people.no ask this questions in 2015

Abu Na Yoruba brain dem Dey work Nigeria ?

Parachoko:
I won't be voting any Northerner in 2023, not to talk of voting a Fulani man.

Buhari don use their turn, let someone else rule too.

sotall:
Tinubu soldier..we know where you are talking from.

Penguin2:
In 2019, Atiku pulled a masterstroke by choosing Mr Peter Obi as his running mate in the presidential race. It was a move that hugely brightened his chances as Mr Peter Obi is not only popular among business community but also hugely popular among the youths.

The duo went on to give APC a run for their money even with Buhari who is considered popular as its candidate as well as some act of sabotage by some PDP stakeholders in the south who felt smitten by the choice of Peter Obi, arguing that they were not consulted.

So, considering their strong showing at the polls in 2019, and considering also that Buhari will not be on the ballot again in 2023, does it not make sense for PDP to repeat the Atiku/Obi ticket in the 2023 presidential election?

If anything, a lot of Nigerians identified with the duo and hoped they won. Some people still argues they won election but APC manufactured votes from troubled Yobe and Borno to swell their votes and get declared by INEC.

So what do you think? Should PDP repeat the Atiku/Obi ticket or is their another alliance/pairing that you think would be stronger?

Lalasticlala
Mynd44

Frigga13:
Are you well so..

So if Pdp present a Northerner

NC SS SE will now vote a southerner ..

Yoruba analysts

But Pdp presented a southern in 2015

Yoruba and NC voted the North

This Yoruba people and their own kind of sense

Akponmfet:
Anybody with the name Obi or Emeka on any presidential ticket will lose again.

limeta:
Fulani must be their master
Una no dey tire
Must fulani rule you all your life

Penguin2:
Prepare to have a man with an Igbo name as either your president or Vice President as from 29th of May 2023.

You can take this to the bank.

Ebubu:
The dangerous thing about this strategy is that if PDP succeeds with defeating APC with a northerner, when PDP would want to field a southerner APC will adopt this very same strategy to field a northerner. Then the cycle continues perpetually. People from the south who are celebrating it don’t see the long term danger of this strategy

Penguin2:
One thing I’ve found out about those people is that they like to lie to themselves a lot.

Penguin2:
In 2019, Atiku pulled a masterstroke by choosing Mr Peter Obi as his running mate in the presidential race. It was a move that hugely brightened his chances as Mr Peter Obi is not only popular among business community but also hugely popular among the youths.

The duo went on to give APC a run for their money even with Buhari who is considered popular as its candidate as well as some act of sabotage by some PDP stakeholders in the south who felt smitten by the choice of Peter Obi, arguing that they were not consulted.

So, considering their strong showing at the polls in 2019, and considering also that Buhari will not be on the ballot again in 2023, does it not make sense for PDP to repeat the Atiku/Obi ticket in the 2023 presidential election?

If anything, a lot of Nigerians identified with the duo and hoped they won. Some people still argues they won election but APC manufactured votes from troubled Yobe and Borno to swell their votes and get declared by INEC.

So what do you think? Should PDP repeat the Atiku/Obi ticket or is their another alliance/pairing that you think would be stronger?

Lalasticlala
Mynd44

Penguin2:
Oh!

Na now una realize Abi?

2015 must have been erased from your memory.

perambulator:
First of all if you cannot look at things without ethnic or party bias then this response is not for you. I am dealing with verifiable acts here not sentiment.

Secondly whatever i state below is based on the premise that the purpose of an election is to win..sentiments aside! everything stated below is verifiable fact not sentiment, where it is opinion I will say so..

With that in mind here goes:


Dont get carried away with dogma and hyperbole, Atiku did not pull any "master stroke" by Picking Obi, if anything the figures suggest picking Obi was his downfall in 2019. He lost!!! so what was the masterstroke? You talk about strong showing but the gap between Buhari and Atiku in 2019 when it was harder to rig was larger than the gap between Buhari and GEJ in 2015 when GEJ was in power and easier to rig? A man lost and you describe it as a masterstroke, what will you describe a victory? In any event stated below are my reasons.

1) In 2015, GEJ got more votes in Anambra and the SE than Obi delivered for Atiku in 2019. He did not add any new votes from the SE..if anything the numbers show that rather than being a master stroke, he was a liability. I will post the links to the figures from 2015 and 2019 but you can also google it. This is not opinion, This is fact.....Figures dont lie!

2) The SE is not just predominantly PDP it is anti-APC, so if they are not on the ticket they have no other option but to vote PDP...it is a very important point you need to understand!!! Whatever happens they wont vote APC. If the SE will never vote for APC and giving them a slot does not add votes, then Atiku would have been better served giving his VP ticket to a person from a zone that could earn him new votes or convert votes from a different zone.

3. if you already have maximum votes in a zone or zones and that zone is a stronghold, i.e the votes are safe, you gain nothing by giving the VP slot to that zone because you have already maxed out the available votes from that zone, the marginal potential additional gain is not worth trading a valuable leverage such as the VP slot that you could have given to a different zone to gain votes from opposition territory. Let me illustrate: the number of votes from the whole of the SE was 1.7m of which Atiku/obi got 80%. Even if he managed to get 100% i.e an additional 340k votes, he would have made no difference to the GAP of more than 2m votes. therefore it was a pointless exercise from the get go. Please also understand the value of gaining votes from opposition territory is a double effect, every vote you gain from an opposition party is actually 2 votes because you reduce the opposition figure figure by 1 and you add 1 to your total. This is why the SW was so pivotal despite not having that huge a population, because they took away all the votes from Jonathan in 2015 (1st setback) and added it to Buhari (second setback)! Anybody who does not understand that elections are won especially by opposition parties by encroaching into opposition territory not by solidifying your base. If there are 11 votes and you are leading me by 7 to 4, I dont need 3 votes to win, if I convert 2 of your supporters i have won, so my focus if I want to win an election is to target 2 of your 7 voters not rewarding my 4 voters that cant get me any additional votes...simple!!!!

4. if you check the history of Nigerian elections from the 1950s to date, the SE and the SS always vote one way come what may, therefore their votes are safe, whether they are on the ticket or not. The regions whose voters can be persuaded one way or another are surprisingly the North and the SW...they are the ones who change parties especially post 1999. They are the Kingmakers, they are the ones who needed to be on the slot if you wanted to unseat Buhari and thought about it properly. The SW in particular is the reason Buhari won in 2015 and that was the zone to have targeted because there was a lot of disaffection with Buhari in the SW prior to 2019. If you look at the results from 2019 in lagos and Oyo state in particular, you will see the potential was there to take back the SW but the candidate was wrong. It was a missed opportunity for PDP and Atiku because the SW wont be as vulnerable to PDP as they were in 2015 if Tinubu is on the ticket.

5 This final point is a personal opinion not fact. There are many sections of Nigeria especially the North that will not vote a person from the SE whether as President or VP because of IPOB, hate speeches from the SE etc. Therefore if you select a SE candidate it has to be 1) one who can gain you massive additional votes in the SE (which Obi did not do) 2) a SE candidate who has national appeal and is seen as a "Nigerian" e.g Orji Kalu not an "Ibo man" like Peter Obi who like I said is not really sellable outside the SE.

Elections are very simple, it about figures, you are counting people, the umpire will count your supporters and your opponent's, whomsoever has the most wins..it really is a s simple as that....INEC does not care where the people come from!!!! So if you want to win an election, you go where the numbers are not where the sentiments are. You approach an election with sense not sentiment. You entice the people with numbers not the core supporters who already support you, the core supporters who already support you will support you whether they are on the ticket or not. if you do not understand this you are not ready to win an election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Nigerian_general_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Nigerian_general_election

Penguin2:
I know you are asking this question because of my previous post.

But if you read well, you would have noticed the caveat that the post was based on the assumption that PDP would zone its presidency to the South.

But now that its zoning committee has recommended throwing the ticket open, the permutations will have to change accordingly.

Meanwhile, who do you think northern delegates will vote for between Wike and Peter Obi if PDP had zoned to south?

perambulator:
First of all if you cannot look at things without ethnic or party bias then this response is not for you. I am dealing with verifiable acts here not sentiment.

Secondly whatever i state below is based on the premise that the purpose of an election is to win..sentiments aside! everything stated below is verifiable fact not sentiment, where it is opinion I will say so..

With that in mind here goes:


Dont get carried away with dogma and hyperbole, Atiku did not pull any "master stroke" by Picking Obi, if anything the figures suggest picking Obi was his downfall in 2019. He lost!!! so what was the masterstroke? You talk about strong showing but the gap between Buhari and Atiku in 2019 when it was harder to rig was larger than the gap between Buhari and GEJ in 2015 when GEJ was in power and easier to rig? A man lost and you describe it as a masterstroke, what will you describe a victory? In any event stated below are my reasons.

1) In 2015, GEJ got more votes in Anambra and the SE than Obi delivered for Atiku in 2019. He did not add any new votes from the SE..if anything the numbers show that rather than being a master stroke, he was a liability. I will post the links to the figures from 2015 and 2019 but you can also google it. This is not opinion, This is fact.....Figures dont lie!

2) The SE is not just predominantly PDP it is anti-APC, so if they are not on the ticket they have no other option but to vote PDP...it is a very important point you need to understand!!! Whatever happens they wont vote APC. If the SE will never vote for APC and giving them a slot does not add votes, then Atiku would have been better served giving his VP ticket to a person from a zone that could earn him new votes or convert votes from a different zone.

3. if you already have maximum votes in a zone or zones and that zone is a stronghold, i.e the votes are safe, you gain nothing by giving the VP slot to that zone because you have already maxed out the available votes from that zone, the marginal potential additional gain is not worth trading a valuable leverage such as the VP slot that you could have given to a different zone to gain votes from opposition territory. Let me illustrate: the number of votes from the whole of the SE was 1.7m of which Atiku/obi got 80%. Even if he managed to get 100% i.e an additional 340k votes, he would have made no difference to the GAP of more than 2m votes. therefore it was a pointless exercise from the get go. Please also understand the value of gaining votes from opposition territory is a double effect, every vote you gain from an opposition party is actually 2 votes because you reduce the opposition figure figure by 1 and you add 1 to your total. This is why the SW was so pivotal despite not having that huge a population, because they took away all the votes from Jonathan in 2015 (1st setback) and added it to Buhari (second setback)! Anybody who does not understand that elections are won especially by opposition parties by encroaching into opposition territory not by solidifying your base. If there are 11 votes and you are leading me by 7 to 4, I dont need 3 votes to win, if I convert 2 of your supporters i have won, so my focus if I want to win an election is to target 2 of your 7 voters not rewarding my 4 voters that cant get me any additional votes...simple!!!!

4. if you check the history of Nigerian elections from the 1950s to date, the SE and the SS always vote one way come what may, therefore their votes are safe, whether they are on the ticket or not. The regions whose voters can be persuaded one way or another are surprisingly the North and the SW...they are the ones who change parties especially post 1999. They are the Kingmakers, they are the ones who needed to be on the slot if you wanted to unseat Buhari and thought about it properly. The SW in particular is the reason Buhari won in 2015 and that was the zone to have targeted because there was a lot of disaffection with Buhari in the SW prior to 2019. If you look at the results from 2019 in lagos and Oyo state in particular, you will see the potential was there to take back the SW but the candidate was wrong. It was a missed opportunity for PDP and Atiku because the SW wont be as vulnerable to PDP as they were in 2015 if Tinubu is on the ticket.

5 This final point is a personal opinion not fact. There are many sections of Nigeria especially the North that will not vote a person from the SE whether as President or VP because of IPOB, hate speeches from the SE etc. Therefore if you select a SE candidate it has to be 1) one who can gain you massive additional votes in the SE (which Obi did not do) 2) a SE candidate who has national appeal and is seen as a "Nigerian" e.g Orji Kalu not an "Ibo man" like Peter Obi who like I said is not really sellable outside the SE.

Elections are very simple, it about figures, you are counting people, the umpire will count your supporters and your opponent's, whomsoever has the most wins..it really is a s simple as that....INEC does not care where the people come from!!!! So if you want to win an election, you go where the numbers are not where the sentiments are. You approach an election with sense not sentiment. You entice the people with numbers not the core supporters who already support you, the core supporters who already support you will support you whether they are on the ticket or not. if you do not understand this you are not ready to win an election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Nigerian_general_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Nigerian_general_election

Golan007:
The question he meant to ask but is reluctant to is "Do you support 16 years of Fulani rule?"

Penguin2:
Had Atiku picked a Southwesterner in 2019 like you are suggesting, there’s no guarantee that the SE and SS would have voted overwhelmingly for PDP like they did. The offer of Presidency to the SE by the APC would have appealed more or more people would have stayed home.

You don’t take your stronghold for granted in a bid to encroach into opposition territory. You could end up losing both.

Again, I do not think that there would have been any major change in the voting demo-graph of the Southwest had Atiku picked his running mate from there. Are you telling me Southwest would have given him the remaining 2million votes that he needed to win?

What happened in 2019 was a clear case of govt in power using power to pervert the will of the people. Add that to the clear sabotage of SE PDP stakeholders who protested against picking of Obi as Atiku’s running mate.

Votes were deliberately suppressed in the Southeast while they were swelled up in the north.

You have said you are being practical… now, in your practicality, does it make sense to you that war-torn Yobe and Borno recorded more voter turnout than Lagos? Is it not a clear case of electoral fraud?

So, while you are calculating the result of the election as declared, also put into consideration other circumstances that impeded the victory of PDP. And I’m sure you wouldn’t argue that such things didn’t not occur.

Penguin2:
In 2019, Atiku pulled a masterstroke by choosing Mr Peter Obi as his running mate in the presidential race. It was a move that hugely brightened his chances as Mr Peter Obi is not only popular among business community but also hugely popular among the youths.

The duo went on to give APC a run for their money even with Buhari who is considered popular as its candidate as well as some act of sabotage by some PDP stakeholders in the south who felt smitten by the choice of Peter Obi, arguing that they were not consulted.

So, considering their strong showing at the polls in 2019, and considering also that Buhari will not be on the ballot again in 2023, does it not make sense for PDP to repeat the Atiku/Obi ticket in the 2023 presidential election?

If anything, a lot of Nigerians identified with the duo and hoped they won. Some people still argues they won election but APC manufactured votes from troubled Yobe and Borno to swell their votes and get declared by INEC.

So what do you think? Should PDP repeat the Atiku/Obi ticket or is their another alliance/pairing that you think would be stronger?

Lalasticlala
Mynd44

Simeonjoe1:
Omo brilliant analysis.
So going by your analogy who do you think is the best candidate for APC/PDP to pick for a tighter competition.

Penguin2:
Thank you for this intelligent response and best believe that you are relating with a rational brain that uses his brain more than he uses his emotions.

To your submission, what you said about encroaching in the opposition base is appealing but yet dangerous.

Had Atiku picked a Southwesterner in 2019 like you are suggesting, there’s no guarantee that the SE and SS would have voted overwhelmingly for PDP like they did. The offer of Presidency to the SE by the APC would have appealed more or more people would have stayed home.

You don’t take your stronghold for granted in a bid to encroach into opposition territory. You could end up losing both.

Again, I do not think that there would have been any major change in the voting demo-graph of the Southwest had Atiku picked his running mate from there. Are you telling me Southwest would have given him the remaining 2million votes that he needed to win?

What happened in 2019 was a clear case of govt in power using power to pervert the will of the people. Add that to the clear sabotage of SE PDP stakeholders who protested against picking of Obi as Atiku’s running mate.

Votes were deliberately suppressed in the Southeast while they were swelled up in the north.

You have said you are being practical… now, in your practicality, does it make sense to you that war-torn Yobe and Borno recorded more voter turnout than Lagos? Is it not a clear case of electoral fraud?

So, while you are calculating the result of the election as declared, also put into consideration other circumstances that impeded the victory of PDP. And I’m sure you wouldn’t argue that such things didn’t not occur.

Penguin2:
Rather than Tinubu to win the presidency, the north/Fulani should rule in perpetuity instead.

Two can play the game.