₦airaland Forum

tctrills:
The truth is Tinubu would win the west but Peter Obi is also quite popular here. Many Yorubas would vote for him. At the end of the day, Tinubu would win the SW but Peter would come second with a good number of votes.
If the election was contested only in southern Nigeria, Peter Obi would be the clear winner. He would easily win the SE, come second in the SW and the SS would be between him and Atiku. But the North, I give it to Atiku. In the end, I see Atiku getting over 50% of the northern votes and up to 40% of the SS votes. This would be enough for him to win the election.

Kudos bro.
Your head dey there

Olaoluwa122:
Love ya analysis...even in lagos Obi will win substantial amount of vote there believe me..tinubu can not I repeat cannot win lagos with 70%..

Exactly......not even 40 % sef.

Olaoluwa122:
Na anybody wey win North central..go be the winner of 2023 election

For me, it is the NW AND NE

TakeBackNaija:
If extrapolating with old figure puts tinubu at a disadvantage, then forget it because it can only get worse with the increase in voters.

Majority of those young people fighting tooth and nail to get their PVC across Nigeria aren't passing through all that to vote for Atiku or Tinubu. They're mostly doing so for Obi and Datti.

Secondly, most of the Christians that had been apathetic to voting in the past, especially in Middle belt and South are now passionate about voting, who do you think is going to have their votes mostly? You think those church leaders we saw in the Middle Belt closing their doors against members without PVC are doing so for them to vote for Muslim-Muslim candidates?

Peter Obi is actually smart and he told you guys from the beginning that his target is those majority that has refused to vote all these while, and his plans are working from the look of it.

Very true......I just hope they would not rig the elections

tctrills:
Many Yorubas are not going to reward APC with another 4 years after these terrible 8 years. The majority would still vote for Tinubu because he is their Brother but a good number don't care about him.
As for the north, Tinubu is not sellable. After 8 terrible years under APC, what reason does the average Northern have to vote for Tinubu? Remember, Atiku is from the north.

I don't think he will win the north either. Maybe he will get 17-34% of their votes

JoeNL22:
Go and check history.
Anybody that wins Kano, Kaduna, Kastina, kebbi and Lagos has never lost the elections.
Therefore the north voting power of x2 is well justified. It is not anybody's fault. It is how the Nigerian politcal system is been structured.

The 42% for obi is highly justified, he can't win the SE OR SS, talkless of a land slide because of the disunity among the igbos and the political apathy that will occur during that day). And from your analysis of 2019 elections, it not possible for someone to go from 80-90% to just 10-20%. Its very rare. And when giving obi and Atiku their %, I factored their political apathy of the SE & SS. The reason why obi might not win the elections is because the south east will not come out en mass to vote for obi.

Lastly the NC(middle belt) will go where the SE and SS will go. Hence we won't see a different result from the north central.
I know this analysis is very annoying, but this analysis is a reflection of the perception of Nigeria and not the predictions that might occur.
Although we do agree on one thing. Tinubu won't the elections, hence your analysis is quite accurate. Kudos

Your analysis is wrong. It failed to take both established indices and trends into cognizance thus.

1. You seem to suggest that Tinubu possibly choosing a northerner, west or east as a running mate, should be entirely discounted and of no effect on the bottom line.

2. You also failed to recognize a relatively young, successful, and well-connected northerner in the Labour Ticket.

3. The said northerner in the Labour ticket is the son-in-law of one of Nigeria's power brokers, Aliyu Gusau. You failed to connect the dots there because that nexus automatically marries the likes of Obasanjo, IBB, Abdulsalam, and others of the old order into the ticket regardless of what position these men assume publicly. A phone call from any of these men is weighty.

4. Further, It is wrong to assume that an Atiku who scored in the 80 percentile in the SE will also share SE votes with a son of the soil and a very popular youth favorite candidate Peter Obi. Obi will win SE hands down in the late 80s but possibly well into the 90s, and that result will be mirrored in the SS. What that means is that Atiku will struggle in the 20 percentiles in both regions at best, and in a region where PDP is hitherto the de facto party.

5. Your opinion about who wins Kano, Kaduna, Kastina, kebbi and Lagos, will not materialize in the coming election. First, this election will be like no other in recent memory. It will not be a two-party election, as has been the case in the recent elections, and in the unlikely event that Kwankwaso will fold in for Atiku, we will have 4 actively participating parties.

This constellation has a direct and immediate effect on the final spread. Lagos will be hotly contested between APC and Labour. We remember that there is a possible 2+ million northern voters in Lagos, and we can assume to know how they will vote. Tinubu will struggle to win Lagos.

6. 7+ years of Buhari's presidency and the devastating effect on the public psyche. This is an enormous factor. Where that plays out is in perception. The perception of the old political order and the myriad of revelations and correlation between Buhari's age, certificate scandal, those who Nigerians believe foisted him on them, his health status, tribal sentiments, etc.

7. The Youth. The current government has woken up the youth. They want change, and they want it in a hurry. This mindset instructed the current frenzy to register for PVCs. What that does is an appreciable increase in votes cast, and 70 percent of the new votes will go to Labour.

8. Your assumption that there is voter apathy in the SE is not reflected in INEC data before the 2015 elections. Igbos are republicans who do not heed a central command, therefore, it is fair to assume that with hope for them on the horizon, the region will bring out the votes in the 4+ million range, minimum. Your belief that Igbos are not united is a failed argument. If they united well enough to give an Atiku 80+ percent of their votes, they will unite even more to do so for their own son.

Finally, I did not set out to give any definite prediction, but to point out some flaws present in your analysis, and the points raised above are by no means exhaustive. In coming to any reasonable permutation, there are fringe factors that must factor in, and these are absent in your submission.

Olaoluwa122:
Yes I rather have Atiku than Tinubu...and if you are doubting my yorubaness...I fit describe my family House in Ogun state for you...tribulation shall not rise again...

Amen

tctrills:
You are angry with him because he does not support your candidate? Don't blame him. Many Nigerians are tired of APC, they want to try something new. Many are disappointed, they expected so much from APC, they voted 2x for the party, yet they have nothing good to show for it. So don't be angry with such people.

Abi.......why should I vote 4 sum1 that brought failure to us. Because E Mi lo kan(it is my turn)

tctrills:
Lexy123O doesn't know that Most Nigerians really suffered this last 8 years. Whether, Yoruba, Igbo, or Hausa, many of us are determined not to make the same mistake

Thank you broda. Please let him know. Maybe he(lexy1230) stays under a leave or rock, who knows?

CutieKing:
To those shouting Obi up and down are deluded or mainly a political neophytes .
You expect obi to score over 90% in se and ss but want tinubu to lose in sw.
Are you people mad or plainly stupid?.
Where is the position of party politics here??.
Apc control 22 states with huge voting population in the country while the party is intact without any crisis,yet you deluded people think they would just lose the election even when buhari is still alive ??.
This joke is on you all.

There are many non-indigenes in the SW most specifically Lagos state with almost half of the votes in the region

Desperado14:
Read my reasoning for this, its quite clear, Tinubu is not as secure in the SW. Also you have to take into account the major animosity thats held nationwide against the APC. Look at the state of the country people are routinely Massacred, Kidnapped & Bombed etc. The Populous wont forget or forgive that sadly and there are too many Muslim & Northern actors in the field, if there was no Kwankwaso I would give the victory to Tinubu but his presence is a vote splitter in the core north unfortunately.

Nigeria very rarely votes along party lines they vote on ethnicity and religion.

Ask yourself is Peter Obi really and truly a socialist Labour candidate? Of course not! Will people vote for him based on his political ideology? Of course not.

Same goes with all the other candidates, Tinubu base is shaky due to his Muslim Muslim fancies.

You people are still delusional...

Show me any past election results that were not based on party preferences.
Some of you kids will just come on the Internet and start sprouting junk laced with alternative facts and conspiracy theories.
How is tinubu base shaking ??.
So apc governors will just go to sleep because voters will just vote along tribal lines..
2019 general elections was contested for with about 25 different political parties,from different ethnicity and tribes,why then was the result only mirrored that of major 2 political parties?.
Also,did insecurities start during apc govt??.
How has apc fared in all the off season elections conducted so far since 2019??.
Your answer will tell you how it's going to be again in 2023.
As for kwankawso ,he's only dividing pdp votes together with obi cos their voters will naturally vote pdp if they don't contest.
You people should use your head for once and not your emotions when analyzing politics.

Niwdog:
This was and has been my take on the 2023 election
Nothing like seat at home in se
Ipob knows that
Thank God election is held on Saturdays

From your analysis. Pdp wins. It's okay. But who are you supporting?

Desperado14:
Read my reasoning for this, its quite clear, Tinubu is not as secure in the SW. Also you have to take into account the major animosity thats held nationwide against the APC. Look at the state of the country people are routinely Massacred, Kidnapped & Bombed etc. The Populous wont forget or forgive that sadly and there are too many Muslim & Northern actors in the field, if there was no Kwankwaso I would give the victory to Tinubu but his presence is a vote splitter in the core north unfortunately.

Nigeria very rarely votes along party lines they vote on ethnicity and religion.

Ask yourself is Peter Obi really and truly a socialist Labour candidate? Of course not! Will people vote for him based on his political ideology? Of course not.

Same goes with all the other candidates, Tinubu base is shaky due to his Muslim Muslim fancies.

I totally agree that Tinubu is shaking in the southwest.
But the 90% is where the bone of contention is. But I know obi is going to make noise in the SE, SW, SS AND NC

ottersberger:
Your analysis is wrong. It failed to take both established indices and trends into cognizance thus.

1. You seem to suggest that Tinubu possibly choosing a northerner, west or east as a running mate, should be entirely discounted and of no effect on the bottom line.

2. You also failed to recognize a relatively young, successful, and well-connected northerner in the Labour Ticket.

3. The said northerner in the Labour ticket is the son-in-law of one of Nigeria's power brokers, Aliyu Gusau. You failed to connect the dots there because that nexus automatically marries the likes of Obasanjo, IBB, Abdulsalam, and others of the old order into the ticket regardless of what position these men assume publicly. A phone call from any of these men is weighty.

4. Further, It is wrong to assume that an Atiku who scored in the 80 percentile in the SE will also share SE votes with a son of the soil and a very popular youth favorite candidate Peter Obi. Obi will win SE hands down in the late 80s but possibly well into the 90s, and that result will be mirrored in the SS. What that means is that Atiku will struggle in the 20 percentiles in both regions at best, and in a region where PDP is hitherto the de facto party.

5. Your opinion about who wins Kano, Kaduna, Kastina, kebbi and Lagos, will not materialize in the coming election. First, this election will be like no other in recent memory. It will not be a two-party election, as has been the case in the recent elections, and in the unlikely event that Kwankwaso will fold in for Atiku, we will have 4 actively participating parties.

This constellation has a direct and immediate effect on the final spread. Lagos will be hotly contested between APC and Labour. We remember that there is a possible 2+ million northern voters in Lagos, and we can assume to know how they will vote. Tinubu will struggle to win Lagos.

6. 7+ years of Buhari's presidency and the devastating effect on the public psyche. This is an enormous factor. Where that plays out is in perception. The perception of the old political order and the myriad of revelations and correlation between Buhari's age, certificate scandal, those who Nigerians believe foisted him on them, his health status, tribal sentiments, etc.

7. The Youth. The current government has woken up the youth. They want change, and they want it in a hurry. This mindset instructed the current frenzy to register for PVCs. What that does is an appreciable increase in votes cast, and 70 percent of the new votes will go to Labour.

8. Your assumption that there is voter apathy in the SE is not reflected in INEC data before the 2015 elections. Igbos are republicans who do not heed a central command, therefore, it is fair to assume that with hope for them on the horizon, the region will bring out the votes in the 4+ million range, minimum. Your belief that Igbos are not united is a failed argument. If they united well enough to give an Atiku 80+ percent of their votes, they will unite even more to do so for their own son.

Finally, I did not set out to give any definite prediction, but to point out some flaws present in your analysis, and the points raised above are by no means exhaustive. In coming to any reasonable permutation, there are fringe factors that must factor in, and these are absent in your submission.

Am in love with this analysis

CutieKing:
To those shouting Obi up and down are deluded or mainly a political neophytes .
You expect obi to score over 90% in se and ss but want tinubu to lose in sw.
Are you people mad or plainly stupid?.
Where is the position of party politics here??.
Apc control 22 states with huge voting population in the country while the party is intact without any crisis,yet you deluded people think they would just lose the election even when buhari is still alive ??.
This joke is on you all.

Bro......forget about party structure aka Apc controlling 22 states, pdp controlled more yet they lost the elections in 2015. It is not about party structure it is about movement created by the candidate. People voted Jonathan because of his personality. People voted Buhari because of his hunger to fight corruption. But what will make people vote Tinubu?

CutieKing:
You people are still delusional...

Show me any past election results that were not based on party preferences.
Some of you kids will just come on the Internet and start sprouting junk laced with alternative facts and conspiracy theories.
How is tinubu base shaking ??.
So apc governors will just go to sleep because voters will just vote along tribal lines..
2019 general elections was contested for with about 25 different political parties,from different ethnicity and tribes,why then was the result only mirrored that of major 2 political parties?.
Also,did insecurities start during apc govt??.
How has apc fared in all the off season elections conducted so far since 2019??.
Your answer will tell you how it's going to be again in 2023.
As for kwankawso ,he's only dividing pdp votes together with obi cos their voters will naturally vote pdp if they don't contest.
You people should use your head for once and not your emotions when analyzing politics.

in 2015 what we're P.D.P governor doing when buhari won their state hands down??

garfield1:
Where does atiku makes the billions? Is it his university or Intel's in which tinubu has shares? Are there as rich as lagos

It is an example naaaaa

CutieKing:
You people are still delusional...

Show me any past election results that were not based on party preferences.
Some of you kids will just come on the Internet and start sprouting junk laced with alternative facts and conspiracy theories.
How is tinubu base shaking ??.
So apc governors will just go to sleep because voters will just vote along tribal lines..
2019 general elections was contested for with about 25 different political parties,from different ethnicity and tribes,why then was the result only mirrored that of major 2 political parties?.
Also,did insecurities start during apc govt??.
How has apc fared in all the off season elections conducted so far since 2019??.
Your answer will tell you how it's going to be again in 2023.
As for kwankawso ,he's only dividing pdp votes together with obi cos their voters will naturally vote pdp if they don't contest.
You people should use your head for once and not your emotions when analyzing politics.

The moment I know you are biased is when you said...Kwankwaso will divide only Atiku and obi vote in the north...LMAO ...bros..go sleep

JoeNL22:
I totally agree that Tinubu is shaking in the southwest.
But the 90% is where the bone of contention is. But I know obi is going to make noise in the SE, SW, SS AND NC

Am.not ready to make any prediction now as the elections is months away,a lot of events will still unfold but even if the elections are held today,I don't see obi winning more than 50% in the se and that's the only region he will hit 10% or more in all the regions.
If you are so sure of your prediction, let's put a bet on this.

Olaoluwa122:
The moment I know you are biased is when you said...Kwankwaso will divide only Atiku and obi vote in the north...LMAO ...bros..go sleep

Am.not biased,I am trying to be scientific here...Kwankwaso and obi were pdp members that decamped to other parties,majority of their votes would come from this party members first, then there are unaffiliated voters like youths who ordinarily do not belong to any political parties will make up the rest of the votes for these people.
If you believe pdp would have won se and ss without lp,but you are giving same zones to lp now..what does this tell you ?.

CutieKing:
Am.not ready to make any prediction now as the elections is months away,a lot of events will still unfold but even if the elections are held today,I don't see obi winning more than 50% in the se and that's the only region he will hit 10% or more in all the regions.
If you are so sure of your prediction, let's put a bet on this.

...50% lmao

CutieKing:
Can you see how stupid you sound,living your life based on hearsays and speculations.
Have you seen tinubu inec papers and you can't find his name and age there ?.
Were you with baba when he told you he won't support tinubu ??..
What discrepancies about him are you referring to exactly ? Or you choose to revel in your self hate and ignorance.
Some of you are still pained how he managed to win the party tickets,we all saw how you and your likes were running amok with different version of fake news and propaganda against his candidature but you all failed.
If you are a youth,please enrich your mind with productive stuffs and not waste away your life with this mindset that will surely lead to nowhere other than heartbreaks and unending defeats and failures.
You all will be alright..

Bro......a man that can't defend his age or talk about the secondary school he went to and wants to be president?. Is that a serious fellow?. The annoying thing is Tinubu had so many years to get his primary and secondary certificates, but as of this hour he has not done so. Amd he said been president is a lifelong ambition. Who is fooling who?. Definitely not me, maybe you!, who knows?. I think you do know.

CutieKing:
Am.not biased,I am trying to be scientific here...Kwankwaso and obi were pdp members that decamped to other parties,majority of their votes would come from this party members first, then there are unaffiliated voters like youths who ordinarily do not belong to any political parties will make up the rest of the votes for these people.
If you believe pdp would have won se and ss without lp,but you are giving same zones to lp now..what does this tell you ?.

I see Labour winning southeast with more 70% P.D.P may win South south but it will be close between the three parties...How many are the party voters again

Olaoluwa122:
...50% lmao

I have thrown a challenge, sign up if you are so sure of yourself.
Last 2019 election, that was how fanatic like you lost #1m on a bet that pdp/obi will win the election.you people have started again.
Let's do it if you are so sure of yourself .
I have not made any predictions yet ,at least not until December.

JoeNL22:
Bro......a man that can't defend his age or talk about the secondary school he went to and wants to be president?. Is that a serious fellow?. The annoying thing is Tinubu had so many years to get his primary and secondary certificates, but as of this hour he has not done so. Amd he said been president is a lifelong ambition. Who is fooling who?. Definitely not me, maybe you!, who knows?. I think you do know.

Person wey dey talk like sey being president na hin birthright...Make we use one failure replace another??tribulations shall not rise again

CutieKing:
Can you see how stupid you sound,living your life based on hearsays and speculations.
Have you seen tinubu inec papers and you can't find his name and age there ?.
Were you with baba when he told you he won't support tinubu ??..
What discrepancies about him are you referring to exactly ? Or you choose to revel in your self hate and ignorance.
Some of you are still pained how he managed to win the party tickets,we all saw how you and your likes were running amok with different version of fake news and propaganda against his candidature but you all failed.
If you are a youth,please enrich your mind with productive stuffs and not waste away your life with this mindset that will surely lead to nowhere other than heartbreaks and unending defeats and failures.
You all will be alright..

This was the same issue we had with Buhari, to present his waec results took him years to do. And you want us to go through the same issues again. God forbid. "Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it". TINUBULATION will not rise the second time.

CutieKing:
I have thrown a challenge, sign up if you are so sure of yourself.
Last 2019 election, that was how fanatic like you lost #1m on a bet that pdp/obi will win the election.you people have started again.
Let's do it if you are so sure of yourself .
I have not made any predictions yet ,at least not until December.

bros...2023 is just 7month what I know and working towards is that A.P.C will not be in Aso rock come 2023..

[/quote][quote author=garfield1 post=114573715]They dont just like any northerner. They love northerners that are fanatic to Islam like kwankwaso,el rufai.atiku is not fanatic so they dont Like him

Please where did you get your info?
Hope you remembered when Atiku tweeted about Deborah samuel. And what happened?.

Olaoluwa122:
I see Labour winning southeast with more 70% P.D.P may win South south but it will be close between the three parties...How many are the party voters again

80% of votes in nigeria usually come from party members while the neutrals make up the rest..it may change this year though but we don't know yet.am basing my suggestions on past results and political realities on ground presently.
May be i should reminds you that only 35% voted in ekiti election just few weeks back and about 7.5% of those were youth.
Does that ring a bell ?.

JoeNL22:
Please where did you get your info?
Hope you remembered when Atiku tweeted about Deborah samuel. And what happened?.

Why do you think atiku lost the north woefully? The only areas he won there were xtian areas

CutieKing:
80% of votes in nigeria usually come from party members while the neutrals make up the rest..it may change this year though but we don't know yet.am basing my suggestions on past results and political realities on ground presently.
May be i should reminds you that only 35% voted in ekiti election just few weeks back and about 7.5% of those were youth.
Does that ring a bell ?.

Let's see how osun election will go then!!!

Olaoluwa122:
bros...2023 is just 7month what I know and working towards is that A.P.C will not be in Aso rock come 2023..

Nobody can say for now....7 months is still far,so anything can happen.infact any of the candidates may drop dead,and if that happens,may change the course of the election but if elections are conducted TODAY....I don't see how apc would lose...this is the reality no matter how sad it is.