Permesso:
.

My fear is that IPOB will disrupt Obi's advantage with Sit at Home and no Election. IPOB are not politically strategic about their struggle. All thst want is to cause unrest to pave way for Atiku or Tinubu to win. They believe only Hausa/fulani can give them Biafra and realise their Nnmadi Kanu. They've forgotten so quick how A.P.C killed them like flies on protests and meetings. If they've sense, they should get their PVC to vote Obi-dent..

Exactly.........that is why I said obi won't win over 50% in the SE, Too many hurdles to go through.

JoeNL22:

Senate is not federal.
Bro......the party leadership said lawan is the consensus but the Northerner governors said no. The party leadership and Tinubu are not in talking terms.
That was why when Buhari heard about the report that he supported a Muslim/muslim ticket he came out to tell them that he wouldn't support a Muslim/muslim ticket. So what does that mean. As far as am concerned its Tinubu running not APC, if you notice this, you will discover that Apc are not really campaigning for Tinubu. They know something we don't

Beer parlor gossips...
Can you quote where buhari opposed Muslim Muslim ticket??.
How is apc not campaigning for tinubu when the campaign season has not started ??.
It's seems you guys enjoy basking in euphoria of falsehoods.
Continue..

JoeNL22:

Thank you broda. Please let him know. Maybe he(lexy1230) stays under a leave or rock, who knows?

Welcome bro

JoeNL22:

Abi.......why should I vote 4 sum1 that brought failure to us. Because E Mi lo kan(it is my turn)

Thanks bro

JoeNL22:

I don't think he will win the north either. Maybe he will get 17-34% of their votes

I don't think he would win in the north. Maybe only in Kwara.

Olaoluwa122:
Leave...all this placing tribalism above competent will be erase come 2023

I really pray so.

garfield1:


Thats a lie.Christian will prefer obi first,tinubu second

Except Tinubu goes for Christian Vice. Going for a Muslim-Muslim is a big slap to all Christians in Nigeria and middle belt Christians will take it more personal considering what they're passing through.

CutieKing:



Beer parlor gossips...
Can you quote where buhari opposed Muslim Muslim ticket??.
How is apc not campaigning for tinubu when the campaign season has not started ??.
It's seems you guys enjoy basking in euphoria of falsehoods.
Continue..

Time will tell

TakeBackNaija:


Except Tinubu goes for Christian Vice. Going for a Muslim-Muslim is a big slap to all Christians in Nigeria and middle belt Christians will take it more personal considering what they're passing through.

They dont want another fulani.tinubu is more preferable than atiku

tctrills:
I don't think he would win in the north. Maybe only in Kwara.

Yea, same here......at most Maybe 2nd in the whole north. And Kwara is shaking.....Saraki is still there

[quote author=garfield1 post=114578879]

Maybe

garfield1:


They dont want another fulani.tinubu is more preferable than atiku

Maybe

You gave Obi 45,000 votes in the NE and 74,000 votes in the NW. Even if all his votes in the NE and NW come from only Igbos, are you saying we don't have up to 500k Igbos in the NE and 1,000,000 in the NW? Now, I believe Igbos wouldn't be the only ones voting for him.

Make February reach make igbos for shutup once and for all

JoeNL22:


Go and check history.
Anybody that wins Kano, Kaduna, Kastina, kebbi and Lagos has never lost the elections.
Therefore the north voting power of x2 is well justified. It is not anybody's fault. It is how the Nigerian politcal system is been structured.

The 42% for obi is highly justified, he can't win the SE OR SS, talkless of a land slide because of the disunity among the igbos and the political apathy that will occur during that day). And from your analysis of 2019 elections, it not possible for someone to go from 80-90% to just 10-20%. Its very rare. And when giving obi and Atiku their %, I factored their political apathy of the SE & SS. The reason why obi might not win the elections is because the south east will not come out en mass to vote for obi.

Lastly the NC(middle belt) will go where the SE and SS will go. Hence we won't see a different result from the north central.
I know this analysis is very annoying, but this analysis is a reflection of the perception of Nigeria and not the predictions that might occur.
Although we do agree on one thing. Tinubu won't the elections, hence your analysis is quite accurate. Kudos

Buhari won the election in those places you mentioned with a very high margin and he still lost twice. You can Google the results of 2003, 2007 and 2011 elections.

irynterri:
Buhari won the election in those places you mentioned with a very high margin and he still lost twice. You can Google the results of 2003, 2007 and 2011 elections.

I just checked 2003 elections- Buhari won 3 of the 5 states and Obasanjo won 2.
If you read my comments well....I said the candidate that wins all 5 states that I mentioned have won the general elections.
Not 2 or 3 of the 5 states that I mentioned. Just read my comments well.

irynterri:
Buhari won the election in those places you mentioned with a very high margin and he still lost twice. You can Google the results of 2003, 2007 and 2011 elections.

Buhari won 4 out of the 5 states in 2011

irynterri:
Buhari won the election in those places you mentioned with a very high margin and he still lost twice. You can Google the results of 2003, 2007 and 2011 elections.

Check 2015 results.
Buhari won all 5 states and won the elections.

irynterri:
Buhari won the election in those places you mentioned with a very high margin and he still lost twice. You can Google the results of 2003, 2007 and 2011 elections.

Buhari won all the 5 states and won The 2019 elections. The whole idea of me making the statement is to tell you the voting power of the north is stronger than you think.

You just sit down in Lagos and keep spewing craps about terrains you know nothing about. You absolutely have zero clue how much PDP is loathed in the south east right now.

You lots are not ready to even begin to imagine how the campaigns will go. You cannot fathom what the Nigerian churches and the diaspora Nigeria will be unleashing.

Peter will win SE by 97%, no caps. Some very popular politicians in the other parties may return, but the presidential elections in the SE will go to PO en mass.

JoeNL22:

Collecting PVCs don't really matter.
Will they come out and vote?. And mind you!, they might be a sit-at-home order come election day. And who wants to be killed by unknown gun men

pchukwudi:
You just sit down in Lagos and keep spewing craps about terrains you know nothing about. You absolutely have zero clue how much PDP is loathed in the south east right now.

You lots are not ready to even begin to imagine how the campaigns will go. You cannot fathom what the Nigerian churches and the diaspora Nigeria will be unleashing.

Peter will win SE by 97%, no caps. Some very popular politicians in the other parties may return, but the presidential elections in the SE will go to PO en mass.

Lol.........u are whining yourself.
97%?........bro stop giving yourself high expectations. You will have heart attack when you see its below 43%.

JoeNL22:

Buhari won all the 5 states and won The 2019 elections. The whole idea of me making the statement is to tell you the voting power of the north is stronger than you think.

Buhari had a fanatical following in the north, children voted and even foreigners from Mali and Niger, to make up that "voting power" . Buhari had more than 1million votes higher than his opponent. This time around, there's no one with such a fanatical following up north, two contestants are from the north , apc is the ruling party in those states, the governors will deliver a good chunck of votes for apc, many Christians up north (I don't know why people underestimate their population). All am saying is the votes in those states will be shared. The wide margin Buhari gave won't be there next year. The south and north central maybe the deciding factor.

Now with Tinubu showing his hand and picking a northern Muslim as vice I am hundred percent certain he won't win the South West the most he will collect is 50% in that region. Foolish move.

TakeBackNaija:


If extrapolating with old figure puts tinubu at a disadvantage, then forget it because it can only get worse with the increase in voters.

Majority of those young people fighting tooth and nail to get their PVC across Nigeria aren't passing through all that to vote for Atiku or Tinubu. They're mostly doing so for Obi and Datti.

Secondly, most of the Christians that had been apathetic to voting in the past, especially in Middle belt and South are now passionate about voting, who do you think is going to have their votes mostly? You think those church leaders we saw in the Middle Belt closing their doors against members without PVC are doing so for them to vote for Muslim-Muslim candidates?

Peter Obi is actually smart and he told you guys from the beginning that his target is those majority that has refused to vote all these while, and his plans are working from the look of it.

The problem with all these delusionary permutation is when Obi certainly loses which he will. You will claim the election was rigged, votes were bought or some other stupid and ignorant excuse. You will never admit your gullibility and stupidity.

You lots can never be sensible enough to realise Obi's candidacy is a wild goose chase. Whatever rocks your boat.


Vote Tinubu 2023. Vote APC.

...

Desperado14:


Yes there has always been multiple contestants in any given Election just like in this current one but in previous elections there has only ever been 2 maximum 3 major players in this field we have 4. All of them popular!

Whether you like it or not APC's choice to run a Muslim Muslim ticket WILL be a factor, it will split votes in the North and lose him votes in the south west.

When APC toppled PDP in 2015 did PDP not have incumbent governors in the states that APC faired well in? Calm down and look at people argument without insulting.

The Insecurity did not start with APC but it continued and escalated under their mandate. Even this one you cannot deny.

All I can see is the vote being split in the North between three Muslims, while in the middle belt the APC and any Fulani wont do well due to recent atrocities carried out under a Fulani APC government.

My opinion will change if one of the Northerners drop out. Until then I can see Obi winning this thing.

When Obi inevitably loses. You will say votes were rigged, votes were bought. Voters are poor and ignorant. Instead of you taking into consideration voting patterns in past elections. Idealism and emotions will be controlling you.

The only thing that can make Peter Obi win 2023 election is if he becomes PDP flag bearer and that WILL NOT happen. No matter what happens between now and election day. Peter Obi in conjunction with his Labour Party WILL NOT, CAN NOT, CAN NEVER win 2023 Presidential elections but keep your delusion going in your echo chambers.



Vote Tinubu 2023. Vote APC.

VoteTinubu2023:

When Obi inevitably loses. You will say votes were rigged, votes were bought. Voters are poor and ignorant. Instead of you taking into consideration voting patterns in past elections. Idealism and emotions will be controlling you.

The only thing that can make Peter Obi win 2023 election is if he becomes PDP flag bearer and that WILL NOT happen. No matter what happens between now and election day. Peter Obi in conjunction with his Labour Party WILL NOT, CAN NOT, CAN NEVER win 2023 Presidential elections but keep your delusion going in your echo chambers.




Vote Tinubu 2023. Vote APC.

The only way Tinubu gets to win is through rigging. His only supporters are from the SW. I am 100 percent sure you are from the SW. Meanwhile, Obi and Atiku's Supporters spread from all parts of the country. This is why they have the advantage

irynterri:
Buhari had a fanatical following in the north, children voted and even foreigners from Mali and Niger, to make up that "voting power" . Buhari had more than 1million votes higher than his opponent. This time around, there's no one with such a fanatical following up north, two contestants are from the north , apc is the ruling party in those states, the governors will deliver a good chunck of votes for apc, many Christians up north (I don't know why people underestimate their population). All am saying is the votes in those states will be shared. The wide margin Buhari gave won't be there next year. The south and north central maybe the deciding factor.

Yes ma, we are saying the same thing. Atiku, Tinubu and kwankwanso will share the votes.
But the majority of the Northerners are muslims and minority are Christians.

tctrills:

The only way Tinubu gets to win is through rigging. His only supporters are from the SW. I am 100 percent sure you are from the SW. Meanwhile, Obi and Atiku's Supporters spread from all parts of the country. This is why they have the advantage

Well said

VoteTinubu2023:

When Obi inevitably loses. You will say votes were rigged, votes were bought. Voters are poor and ignorant. Instead of you taking into consideration voting patterns in past elections. Idealism and emotions will be controlling you.

The only thing that can make Peter Obi win 2023 election is if he becomes PDP flag bearer and that WILL NOT happen. No matter what happens between now and election day. Peter Obi in conjunction with his Labour Party WILL NOT, CAN NOT, CAN NEVER win 2023 Presidential elections but keep your delusion going in your echo chambers.



Vote Tinubu 2023. Vote APC.

We the great people of Nigeria will rather waste our votes on obi, than to vote for Tinubu or Atiku.

Desperado14:
Now with Tinubu showing his hand and picking a northern Muslim as vice I am hundred percent certain he won't win the South West the most he will collect is 50% in that region. Foolish move.

Help me understand how someone that gets 50% does not win