₦airaland Forum

CutieKing:
You people are still delusional...

Show me any past election results that were not based on party preferences.
Some of you kids will just come on the Internet and start sprouting junk laced with alternative facts and conspiracy theories.
How is tinubu base shaking ??.
So apc governors will just go to sleep because voters will just vote along tribal lines..
2019 general elections was contested for with about 25 different political parties,from different ethnicity and tribes,why then was the result only mirrored that of major 2 political parties?.
Also,did insecurities start during apc govt??.
How has apc fared in all the off season elections conducted so far since 2019??.
Your answer will tell you how it's going to be again in 2023.
As for kwankawso ,he's only dividing pdp votes together with obi cos their voters will naturally vote pdp if they don't contest.
You people should use your head for once and not your emotions when analyzing politics.

Yes there has always been multiple contestants in any given Election just like in this current one but in previous elections there has only ever been 2 maximum 3 major players in this field we have 4. All of them popular!

Whether you like it or not APC's choice to run a Muslim Muslim ticket WILL be a factor, it will split votes in the North and lose him votes in the south west.

When APC toppled PDP in 2015 did PDP not have incumbent governors in the states that APC faired well in? Calm down and look at people argument without insulting.

The Insecurity did not start with APC but it continued and escalated under their mandate. Even this one you cannot deny.

All I can see is the vote being split in the North between three Muslims, while in the middle belt the APC and any Fulani wont do well due to recent atrocities carried out under a Fulani APC government.

My opinion will change if one of the Northerners drop out. Until then I can see Obi winning this thing.

JoeNL22:
Please where did you get your info?
Hope you remembered when Atiku tweeted about Deborah samuel. And what happened?.

Why do you think atiku lost the north woefully? The only areas he won there were xtian areas and failed in Muslim areas

Olaoluwa122:
Let's see how osun election will go then!!!

Yes....let's check how Osun turnout would be and how many youths would show up,then we can begin to imagine how the general election would likely be.
God spare our lifes till then.

Let me park well

Gunayo:
Nasarawa you say? You must be kidding. PDP is taking over Nasarawa state in the governorship election this time around. No more splitting of votes, thanks to Labaru Maku that didn't decamp to another party. But for the presidential election, Obi will Slightly have an edge over Atiku in Nasarawa state. Tinubu will come third in the state.

Atiku will take third I.nasarawa.sule will thrash David

JoeNL22:
From your analysis. Pdp wins. It's okay. But who are you supporting?

Peter Obi

Desperado14:
Yes there has always been multiple contestants in any given Election just like in this current one but in previous elections there has only ever been 2 maximum 3 major players in this field we have 4. All of them popular!

Whether you like it or not APC's choice to run a Muslim Muslim ticket WILL be a factor, it will split votes in the North and lose him votes in the south west.

When APC toppled PDP in 2015 did PDP not have incumbent governors in the states that APC faired well in? Calm down and look at people argument without insulting.

The Insecurity did not start with APC but it continued and escalated under their mandate. Even this one you cannot deny.

All I can see is the vote being split in the North between three Muslims, while in the middle belt the APC and any Fulani wont do well due to recent atrocities carried out under a Fulani APC government.

My opinion will change if one of the Northerners drop out. Until then I can see Obi winning this thing.

You are still arguing based on sentiments....I hope we reach a common ground though. apc goodwill has been eroded with insecurities and all that but voters hardly consider that when voting...there are other factors which you have been outlining that may play a part.so the negative effect won't be that much .
Also,Obi stands no chance in this election..with all due respect to him.
lp is not controlling any state in the country,and here you are comparing the party with pdp that had almost 17 governors in 2015.
Common,elections are not run on emotions,I expect our so called youth to be proactive and objectives when analyzing facts.

Desperado14:
Haffeze

Is this funnier than your own prediction?

[b]As we all know that 2023 general election is just some month from now,these are the things that will happen before,during and after election.

1 Tinubu will pick Northern Muslim vice and it will generate alot of noise on all social media

2 Atiku will pick his vice from south and ohaneze ndigbo will spit fire and later atikulate

3 Peter Obi will choose his vipe from North, probably a Muslim North

4 majority of Yorubas will be rooting for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu

5 minority of Igbo will be rooting for Peter Gregory Obi

6 Majority of Igbo will vote Atiku

7 Simeon ekpa will announce sit at home during campaign and election day

8 some people will die from innocent gun carrying angel unknown gun men

9 ipob sympathizer on Nairaland will blame Tinubu for it,that he's scared of Peter Obi and he's the one sponsor unknown gun men they've been hailing since 1889bc era

10 Tinubu will defeat Atiku(note Peter Obi is not in equation at all because he will come distance 4th behind sowore).

11 cry of rigging will rent social media place for some month

12 some people will come with another conspiracy theory of how Fulani cabal will use supreme Court to deal with Tinubu

13 some people will finally go back to their anthem of Biafra or death.


This thread is not for troll please.[/b]

normal way a fool and a Tinubu supporter will always quote

ottersberger:
Your analysis is wrong. It failed to take both established indices and trends into cognizance thus.

1. You seem to suggest that Tinubu possibly choosing a northerner, west or east as a running mate, should be entirely discounted and of no effect on the bottom line. So what is the bottom line?

2. You also failed to recognize a relatively young, successful, and well-connected northerner in the Labour Ticket. I did but we all know the people that will move the weight

3. The said northerner in the Labour ticket is the son-in-law of one of Nigeria's power brokers, Aliyu Gusau. You failed to connect the dots there because that nexus automatically marries the likes of Obasanjo, IBB, Abdulsalam, and others of the old order into the ticket regardless of what position these men assume publicly. A phone call from any of these men is weighty. Please be reminded that Tinubu, Atiku and kwankwanso also have "connected connections"

4. Further, It is wrong to assume that an Atiku who scored in the 80 percentile in the SE will also share SE votes with a son of the soil and a very popular youth favorite candidate Peter Obi. Obi will win SE hands down in the late 80s but possibly well into the 90s, and that result will be mirrored in the SS. What that means is that Atiku will struggle in the 20 percentiles in both regions at best, and in a region where PDP is hitherto the de facto party. Brooo......sorry to bust your bubble, I can guarantee you for free that obi won't even score 50% of the south east

5. Your opinion about who wins Kano, Kaduna, Kastina, kebbi and Lagos, will not materialize in the coming election. First, this election will be like no other in recent memory. It will not be a two-party election, as has been the case in the recent elections, and in the unlikely event that Kwankwaso will fold in for Atiku, we will have 4 actively participating parties.
Till kwankwanso folds up, I stand with my analysis. And i did not say it will materialise in this elections, I just said the anybody that wins those five states is a sure winner for the election. But I will agree with you that one person might not will win the 5 states. It might be very though in this year forthcoming elections.

This constellation has a direct and immediate effect on the final spread. Lagos will be hotly contested between APC and Labour. We remember that there is a possible 2+ million northern voters in Lagos, and we can assume to know how they will vote. Tinubu will struggle to win Lagos. Sure, this already in my analysis where I gave 2 instances if Tinubu picks a Muslim or a Christian.

6. 7+ years of Buhari's presidency and the devastating effect on the public psyche. This is an enormous factor. Where that plays out is in perception. The perception of the old political order and the myriad of revelations and correlation between Buhari's age, certificate scandal, those who Nigerians believe foisted him on them, his health status, tribal sentiments, etc.

7. The Youth. The current government has woken up the youth. They want change, and they want it in a hurry. This mindset instructed the current frenzy to register for PVCs. What that does is an appreciable increase in votes cast, and 70 percent of the new votes will go to Labour. I pray too, also.

8. Your assumption that there is voter apathy in the SE is not reflected in INEC data before the 2015 elections. Igbos are republicans who do not heed a central command, therefore, it is fair to assume that with hope for them on the horizon, the region will bring out the votes in the 4+ million range, minimum. Your belief that Igbos are not united is a failed argument. If they united well enough to give an Atiku 80+ percent of their votes, they will unite even more to do so for their own son. Okay, let time be the judge.

Finally, I did not set out to give any definite prediction, but to point out some flaws present in your analysis, and the points raised above are by no means exhaustive. In coming to any reasonable permutation, there are fringe factors that must factor in, and these are absent in your submission.

No analysis is 100% accurate.
But it doesn't mean mine is totally out of place because of sum things that where not factored. Everybody keeps forgetting that Atiku as his own network, same has kwankwanso and Tinubu. The reason why I kept the the core north together is because they usually have one voice. For example Buhari had 80 and 78% of the core north last year. Check 2019 elections and note the similarities. The core north are together. But the south are a different ball game. Hence because of their strong unity, their voting power and strength is ×2. Now this analysis is not to disregard other zones, but is to tell them that 2 heads are better than 1. And that is why the north will forever have an edge in the Nigeria political system.

Olaoluwa122:
Person wey dey talk like sey being president na hin birthright...Make we use one failure replace another??tribulations shall not rise again

amen

garfield1:
Why do you think atiku lost the north woefully? The only areas he won there were xtian areas

Because of incumbency. But now it is over. I Don't see it happening again. The worst that will happen is Tinubu, Atiku and kwankwanso will share the votes. But they will not be any landslide like in 2019

Niwdog:
Peter Obi

Okay . Hope you have your pvc

Olaoluwa122:
Na anybody wey win North central..go be the winner of 2023 election

Exactly what I told a friend not quite long ago. North Central will decide who will be the next president of Nigeria

JoeNL22:
Okay . Hope you have your pvc

yeah got it this year

Niwdog:
yeah got it this year

mine, only 1 center Dey o... Come see population

garfield1:
Atiku will take third I.nasarawa.sule will thrash David

I hear you

JoeNL22:
No analysis is 100% accurate.
But it doesn't mean mine is totally out of place because of sum things that where not factored. Everybody keeps forgetting that Atiku as his own network, same has kwankwanso and Tinubu. The reason why I kept the the core north together is because they usually have one voice. For example Buhari had 80 and 78% of the core north last year. Check 2019 elections and note the similarities. The core north are together. But the south are a different ball game. Hence because of their strong unity, their voting power and strength is ×2. Now this analysis is not to disregard other zones, but is to tell them that 2 heads are better than 1. And that is why the north will forever have an edge in the Nigeria political system.

Why I think apc even with their many baggages of same religious combo and insecurities still has an higher chance of winning is that the majority of the power brokers in the north want power rotates back to the south..THIS IS A MAJOR FACTOR...don't know why many of you are not seeing this,so they will.make sure this happens because the unity of the country depends on power shift to the south.Nigeria cannot survive another northern president.

CutieKing:
Why I think apc even with their many baggages of same religious combo and insecurities still has an higher chance of winning is that the majority of the power brokers in the north want power rotates back to the south..THIS IS A MAJOR FACTOR...don't know why many of you are not seeing this,so they will.make sure this happens because the unity of the country depends on power shift to the south.Nigeria cannot survive another northern president.

We in the south don't want tinubu...

Let's just pretend that osinbajo is A.P.C presidential candidate do you think the opposition will be as stiff as this??

CutieKing:
Why I think apc even with their many baggages of same religious combo and insecurities still has an higher chance of winning is that the majority of the power brokers in the north want power rotates back to the south..THIS IS A MAJOR FACTOR...don't know why many of you are not seeing this,so they will.make sure this happens because the unity of the country depends on power shift to the south.Nigeria cannot survive another northern president.

Yes........but a Muslim/Muslim ticket?. It would be a problem. That is why they told buhari to do consensus for either Osinbajo or amechi, but baba decided to remain neutral. And that neutrality might cost them.

JoeNL22:
Because of incumbency. But now it is over. Don't see it happening again. The worst that will happen is Tinubu, Atiku and kwankwanso will share the votes. But they will not be any landslide like in 2019

Yes but because of apc strength,tinubu will win narrowly

garfield1:
Yes but because of apc strength,tinubu will win narrowly

JoeNL22:
Yes........but a Muslim/Muslim ticket?. It would be a problem. That is why they told buhari to do consensus for either Osinbajo or amechi, but baba decided to remain neutral. And that neutrality might cost them.

Neither osinbajo or amechi can win general election.
This thing is more than the way we are seeing it.

CutieKing:
Neither osinbajo or amechi can win general election.
This thing is one than the way we are seeing it.

Has Tinubu won or contested any election at federal level?

garfield1:
Yes but because of apc strength,tinubu will win narrowly

Lol.....which strength does Apc has?

JoeNL22:
Lol.....which strength does Apc has?

Which party is controlling nigeria

Olaoluwa122:

Why this

JoeNL22:
Bro......forget about party structure aka Apc controlling 22 states, pdp controlled more yet they lost the elections in 2015. It is not about party structure it is about movement created by the candidate. People voted Jonathan because of his personality. People voted Buhari because of his hunger to fight corruption. But what will make people vote Tinubu?

Cassava and Agbado na

JoeNL22:
Has Tinubu won or contested any election at federal level?

Yes senatorial election but you and I know tinubu has the biggest chance of wining in apc..no need flogging this issue abeg.
You can't know more than the party leadership especially the governors that know the candidates strength.
Why did Atiku won pdp primary, because they believed he has the brightest chance of all the aspirants.this is politics 101 bro.

Olaoluwa122:
We in the south don't want tinubu...

How many are we??.
Tinubu is a political leader and his party control the southwest..
Obi is from the south too...so anybody from them can win but not another northerner.

JoeNL22:
Collecting PVCs don't really matter.
Will they come out and vote?. And mind you!, they might be a sit-at-home order come election day. And who wants to be killed by unknown gun men

.

My fear is that IPOB will disrupt Obi's advantage with Sit at Home and no Election. IPOB are not politically strategic about their struggle. All thst want is to cause unrest to pave way for Atiku or Tinubu to win. They believe only Hausa/fulani can give them Biafra and realise their Nnmadi Kanu. They've forgotten so quick how A.P.C killed them like flies on protests and meetings. If they've sense, they should get their PVC to vote Obi-dent..

CutieKing:
Yes senatorial election but you and I know tinubu has the biggest chance of wining in apc..no need flogging this issue abeg.
You can't know more than the party leadership especially the governors that know the candidates strength.
Why did Atiku won pdp primary, because they believed he has the brightest chance of all the aspirants.this is politics 101 bro.

Senate is not federal.
Bro......the party leadership said lawan is the consensus but the Northerner governors said no. The party leadership and Tinubu are not in talking terms.
That was why when Buhari heard about the report that he supported a Muslim/muslim ticket he came out to tell them that he wouldn't support a Muslim/muslim ticket. So what does that mean. As far as am concerned its Tinubu running not APC, if you notice this, you will discover that Apc are not really campaigning for Tinubu. They know something we don't