₦airaland Forum

Oladeji245:
I’m a Yoruba too.
The guy is actually right. In Sw,there’s no real dominant party in that sense. For example if pdp had presented segun oni in Ekiti state plus the already sentiment against apc, they would have won.
In the next governorship elections,watch out for one of ogun and ondo state. I will be shock if both are won by apc.
Tribal politics is not really a thing in sw otherwise both atiku and Peter obi will not have been popular here.
Most youths I have spoken to either Muslims or Christians are for Peter obi. While virtually all the pdp supporters I have interacted with are for Atiku.
As for his Atiku claim,I will say maybe about 35 percent and due to emergence of Peter obi who will share the rest with tinubu though I expect tinubu to get more.
This means Sw will not give block votes and no one is winning sw with any big margin.
Unfortunately for Tinubu, there’s nothing you tell an average liberal Yoruba man that will ever make them vote for him or even being an option for them, that’s how much they hate him.
And with this Muslim Muslim ticket baggage now added,good luck to tinubu in sw

PDP is already disadvantaged due to the emergence of LP. 40% is outrageous. They can't get that number in any region in Southern Nigeria. Not even the region the VP is from.

25% is fair but 40%, nah nah nah, that's wishful thinking even the 35% you attributed to the PDP is unrealistic. I washed a couple of videos during the Osun election when some voters were asked who they'd vote and they shouted BAT, I mean, they just voted Adeleke.

Tribal politics is a big thing in Nigeria. Don't sell me that liberal story. What percentage of liberal Yorubas do you have? Who are the core defenders of BAT's presidency? Even here on NL, who are those defending him? You don't want to tell yourself the truth.

The basis of my argument is;
The core North will be the decider in the next election. Since votes will be majorly shared between BAT & LP in Southern Nigeria ( Although LP will have far more bigger numbers due to SE/SS), whosever the core North throw their weight on will emerge winner.

An Obi/Kwankwanso ticket would have put LP in clear lead, but man refused to cooperate.

Efewestern:
PDP is already disadvantaged due to the emergence of LP. 40% is outrageous. They can't get that number in any region in Southern Nigeria. Not even the region the VP is from.

25% is fair but 40%, nah nah nah, that's wishful thinking even the 35% you attributed to the PDP is unrealistic. I washed a couple of videos during the Osun election when some voters were asked who they'd vote and they shouted BAT, I mean, they just
voted Adeleke.


Tribal politics is a big thing in Nigeria. Don't sell me that liberal story. What percentage of liberal Yorubas do you have? Who are the core defenders of BAT's presidency? Even here on NL, who are those defending him? You don't want to tell yourself the truth.

The basis of my argument is;
The core North will be the decider in the next election. Since votes will be majorly shared between BAT & LP in Southern Nigeria ( Although LP will have far more bigger numbers due to SE/SS), whosever the core North throw their weight on will emerge winner.

An Obi/Kwankwanso ticket would have put LP in clear lead, but man refused to cooperate.

You’re getting carried away by apc nairaland propagandists who will have you believe all Yorubas worship at tinubu feet. Everybody knows nairaland is the headquarters of tinubu sw supporters.
You watch a video of Yoruba saying they will vote for tinubu, did you not also watch videos in that same osun state of people tearing apart tinubu posters?
I’m a Yoruba and I’m telling you exactly what’s obtaineable in sw right now.
Do you know how much people celebrate adeleke victory here in ogun state?
I’m not supporting Atiku oo but believe me Atiku will easily get more than 25 percent in sw due to loyalty of pdp supporters.
In my own circle for example there’s no tinubu voter most are for Peter obi or Atiku in fact some are saying since obi might not win,they will give it to Atiku sef because they don’t want to waste their votes.
In Sw,nobody is winning with a big margin and you can come back to this post in February.
As for your second paragraph i agree it’s obvious whoever the north gives majority of its vote will win.

Oladeji245:
You’re getting carried away by apc nairaland propagandists who will have you believe all Yorubas worship at tinubu feet. Everybody knows nairaland is the headquarters of tinubu sw supporters.
You watch a video of Yoruba saying they will vote for tinubu, did you not also watch videos in that same osun state of people tearing apart tinubu posters?
I’m a Yoruba and I’m telling you exactly what’s obtaineable in sw right now.
Do you know how much people celebrate adeleke victory here in ogun state?
I’m not supporting Atiku oo but believe me Atiku will easily get more than 25 percent in sw due to loyalty of pdp supporters.
In my own circle for example there’s no tinubu voter most are for Peter obi or Atiku in fact some are saying since obi might not win,they will give it to Atiku sef because they don’t want to waste their votes.
In Sw,nobody is winning with a big margin and you can come back to this post in February.
As for your second paragraph i agree it’s obvious whoever the north gives majority of its vote will win.

Adeleke victory doesn't automatically translate to Atiku's victory. Things don't go that way. Even on Facebook and Twitter, the core supporters of BAT's presidency are Yorubas. 8 in every 10 that defends whatever is been thrown at him are Yorubas.

Go to David's handle on Twitter and take your stats. Don't sell the liberal stuff to me. I'm a Nigerian and I know how things goes in Nigeria.

LP even has more stake.

Efewestern:
Adeleke victory doesn't automatically translate to Atiku's victory. Things don't go that way. Even on Facebook and Twitter, the core supporters of BAT's presidency are Yorubas. 8 in every 10 that defends whatever is been thrown at him are Yorubas.

Go to David's handle on Twitter and take your stats. Don't sell the liberal stuff to me. I'm a Nigerian and I know how things goes in Nigeria.

LP even has more stake.

Lp has more stake in Sw?
Come back in February to this post.
Sw doesn’t give block votes.

Oladeji245:
I’m a Yoruba too.
The guy is actually right. In Sw,there’s no real dominant party in that sense. For example if pdp had presented segun oni in Ekiti state plus the already sentiment against apc, they would have won.
In the next governorship elections,watch out for one of ogun and ondo state. I will be shock if both are won by apc.
Tribal politics is not really a thing in sw otherwise both atiku and Peter obi will not have been popular here.
Most youths I have spoken to either Muslims or Christians are for Peter obi. While virtually all the pdp supporters I have interacted with are for Atiku.
As for his Atiku claim,I will say maybe about 35 percent and and that’s due to emergence of Peter obi who will share the rest with tinubu though I expect tinubu to get more.
This means Sw will not give block votes and no one is winning sw with any big margin.
Unfortunately for Tinubu, there’s nothing you tell an average liberal Yoruba man that will ever make them vote for him or even being an option for them, that’s how much they hate him.
And with this Muslim Muslim ticket baggage now added,good luck to tinubu in sw

This is what I was trying to explain to @Efewestern, a good number of Yoruba pips in Lagos are not going to vote for Tinubu even though he's likely to win but I don't think a wide margin is feasible except there's vote manipulation and intimidation as is the usual in surulere axis. I can't really say for other SW states.
All LP has to do is to get a very good margin in SS/SE and likely take the middle belt, hope for a reasonable outting in SW and just hope for anything in the core north and most of tinubu supporters are ethnic bigots who have failed to scrutinize his health and competence and oh agberos too