₦airaland Forum

All the states,obi/datti nor go win one northern state.

Agboriotejoye:
You did not even understand the bolded. The bolded says Atiku will win the north but what will decide is if the margin will be big enough to give him victory. The reason why I say so is because as things stand today, he might not get the bloc votes PDP used to get from the SS/SE. If that bloc votes were still assured, Atiku would just need to be ironing his swearing in babanriga
It is claptrap to claim that all parties will win their strongholds. NW was PDP stronghold before 2015. Nasarawa was funny. CPC used to win presidential but lose the governorship there. What about Edo. All through the 12 years AC/APC held the state, they never won presidential there. PDP always wins presidential. Niger was a one party state till 2015. Everywhere in Niger was PDP till 2015. So it is foolish simplicity to claim APC will win all their strongholds and PDP will do same. If anyone said APC will lose Ondo and Ekiti in SW in 2019, no one will believe it. The fact is the sentiments that go into an election are usually dynamic. But most times, each region have what is most important to them. The South seem to always vote based on perception of performance while the North vote based on ethno-religious sentiments. That is why Tinubu was prodded and he also saw wisdom in choosing a Muslim Vice. That is why Buhari and Adamu wanted a northerner to pick APC ticket.
So whatever you are calculating that does not take into account the dynamics of a political election, and the prevailing sentiments in a particular region is a waste of time.
For example, your question that which states in the North CAN Atiku and Kwankwaso win is a most foolish one. Based on prevailing sentiments in the North, Atiku and Kwankwaso fit the bill of all the available sentiments core Muslim north vote for. They are Muslims northerners. They are from core northern states and have mass appeal and spread. And they are well known and have been long in northern politics. There are three states which do not usually go with those sentiments because of their predominant Christian populations. That's Plateau, Benue and Taraba. They have a good chance in these states too because they have a Christian Vice. It is actually Tinubu that for sure CANNOT win all the Northern states because of his Muslim Vice. So you see how stupid that question you started the thread with is?

Oga,atiku cannot win the north.worst case scenario is a narrow tinubu win.the ethno religious sentiments does not favour him.the closest thing to a religious fanatic is Muslim Muslim ticket.atiku is far down the pecking order.he is not popular up north and has never been.it is not a coincidence that the northern States he won in 2019 are christian dominated,Muslims don't fancy him,do you gerrit? It is a lie that the north vote according to sentiments be it religion or ethnicity.that they have been voting buhari doesbt mean they will always vote any northerner at any time.buhari struggled to win the core north in 2003,2007,2011.shagari lost north east to waziri Ibrahim,narrowly won nw but lostbkano to aminu kano.therefore, an unpopular man like atiku cannot win the north against a politically superior tinubu...no northerner has ever gotten the kind of votes buhari got in the north except balewa because of ahmadu bello.
It is a big lie that the nw has always been a pdp base.there are so many things you dont know that's why I said leave electoral matters.in 1999 anpp won kebbi,sokoto,zamfara,jigawa.pdp won Kaduna,katsina and kano.therefore at guber level,nw was more anpp till 2007.in kano,anpp took power from 2003-20011.from 2003,it was anti pdp at presidential level.pdp only controlled nw at state level from 2007-2014.even in the north east,borno yobe have been anti pdp at all levels.bauchi has been fanatically anti pdp at presidential level.yuguda came into power in 2007 under anpp.gombe was anpp from 1999-2003 but has always gone to buhari.only taraba and Adamawa are pdp strongholds. At presidential level,Niger has been pro buhari.kwara was anpp till 2003.it has been pro saraki till 2015.so know your history and it doesnt favour atiku.
You lied again about nasarawa.CPC has never won presidential election in nasarawa.al makura won because doma fell out with sen adamu.leave electoral politics,you dont know it.when I say tinubu will win the north,I know what I am saying.you once claimed oshio lost his unit and ward to shuaibu I proved you wrong.stop making false claims.learn from your superiors.apc has made more inroads into pdp territories than pdp has in apc areas.look at apc winning polls in crs,delta,rivers,bayelsa.has pdp won any election in core north? Stop electing miracles son

Kyase:
Amaechi is my man

Can you hear yourself so a Christian only job is to get votes for the Muslims abi and for how long

Guy avoid me with this rubbish
Tinubu can never be president

I will prefer obi the liar sef

I have no problem with obi.anything but atiku

garfield1:
I have no problem with obi.anything but atiku

better prepare your mind for an Atiku presidency

He’s the favorite

Kyase:
better prepare your mind for an Atiku presidency

He’s the favorite

Tinubu is the favourite.how many people do you see talk about atiku? Only wike is giving him publicity

garfield1:
Oga,atiku cannot win the north.worst case scenario is a narrow tinubu win.the ethno religious sentiments does not favour him.the closest thing to a religious fanatic is Muslim Muslim ticket.atiku is far down the pecking order.he is not popular up north and has never been.it is not a coincidence that the northern States he won in 2019 are christian dominated,Muslims don't fancy him,do you gerrit? It is a lie that the north vote according to sentiments be it religion or ethnicity.that they have been voting buhari doesbt mean they will always vote any northerner at any time.buhari struggled to win the core north in 2003,2007,2011.shagari lost north east to waziri Ibrahim,narrowly won nw but lostbkano to aminu kano.therefore, an unpopular man like atiku cannot win the north against a politically superior tinubu...no northerner has ever gotten the kind of votes buhari got in the north except balewa because of ahmadu bello.
It is a big lie that the nw has always been a pdp base.there are so many things you dont know that's why I said leave electoral matters.in 1999 anpp won kebbi,sokoto,zamfara,jigawa.pdp won Kaduna,katsina and kano.therefore at guber level,nw was more anpp till 2007.in kano,anpp took power from 2003-20011.from 2003,it was anti pdp at presidential level.pdp only controlled nw at state level from 2007-2014.even in the north east,borno yobe have been anti pdp at all levels.bauchi has been fanatically anti pdp at presidential level.yuguda came into power in 2007 under anpp.gombe was anpp from 1999-2003 but has always gone to buhari.only taraba and Adamawa are pdp strongholds. At presidential level,Niger has been pro buhari.kwara was anpp till 2003.it has been pro saraki till 2015.so know your history and it doesnt favour atiku.
You lied again about nasarawa.CPC has never won presidential election in nasarawa.al makura won because doma fell out with sen adamu.leave electoral politics,you dont know it.when I say tinubu will win the north,I know what I am saying.you once claimed oshio lost his unit and ward to shuaibu I proved you wrong.stop making false claims.learn from your superiors.apc has made more inroads into pdp territories than pdp has in apc areas.look at apc winning polls in crs,delta,rivers,bayelsa.has pdp won any election in core north? Stop electing miracles son

This boy.
You went all about to buttress my point that the north vote based on ethno-religious sentiments while your initial claim was that it is not true that the north votes based on ethno-religious sentiments. I think we should call monikers who we know are very active in politics on this forum and ask that simple question. Even a baby should be able to answer. Does the north vote on pure performance or governance issues or on ethno-religious sentiments? Mention any moniker you know and let them give us an answer. Let me call your friend and brother fergie001 and Kyase you've been arguing with. I'm even surprised you can say that while you went about proving otherwise, and lastly, failed to mention what drives vote in the north. What do you mean by Buhari "struggled" to win 3 times in a row? Can a team struggle to win 3-0?
Look at all the names you claimed defeated other northerners. Is there a southerner among them? I already told you, and I stand by it. North vote first, pro-North, then Islam. That is why Yaradua could defeat Buhari in the North and turn the whole NW to PDP in 2007 with the exception of Zamfara. Yaradua was not as fanatical as Buhari mind you, who had claimed that he supports and will implement sharia throughout Nigeria. But Yaradua, through his family name was seen as more pro-North than Buhari. Even the Ahmadu Bello you mentioned was very pro-North and that was why he was able to lock down the North against the wishes of Awolowo who wanted to separate the Middle Belt
Go and read what I said. I said PDP was in charge of NW before 2015. I never said from 1999 to 2015. You're the one who interpreted that based on pure emotions.
Go and check the history. The only time a southerner beat a northerner in the core north was 1993 and we all know it was due to the support of the military establishment then, and not just pure political factors. It is also interesting to note that same military betrayed Abiola and the North turned against him immediately and supported the military govt headed by northerners. Do you think if it was a southerner that headed the military govt of Abacha, he would last so long and even have the effrontery to transmute to a civilian president?
On Nasarawa, it was a mistake I made. I swapped the governorship for the presidential results. The only reason you have given to claim that Tinubu will win the North is the popularity of APC there. But what I'm pointing out to you is that APC was not in charge of the North before 2015 so it is infantile to claim traditional stronghold of the North for APC. The PDP had more governors in the North than either ANPP or CPC pre-2015. It was the change tsunami led by Buhari that tilted things in APC's favour in the north. I daresay, if there was no Buhari, whatever merger they did in 2013-14 would have ultimately been an exercise in futility. That's what I'm pointing out to you.
And on the Edo matter. What exactly are you about? APC lost na I thought the Jagaban and Oshiomole would be too powerful for Obaseki who performed poorly according to you. Where you not the one shouting up apc before the elections?

garfield1:
Katsina,zamfara,jigawa,Kaduna,yobe,borno,gombe,kogi,Niger,[/b]kwara. Unlike you,I am not afraid to speak out.support tinubu before it is late.I dont know how you reason. [b]atiku will almost certainly support fulani herdsmen.

You've got to be kidding, analyst has turned desperado.

Agboriotejoye:
This boy.
You went all about to buttress my point that the north vote based on ethno-religious sentiments while your initial claim was that it is not true that the north votes based on ethno-religious sentiments. I think we should call monikers who we know are very active in politics on this forum and ask that simple question. Even a baby should be able to answer. Does the north vote on pure performance or governance issues or on ethno-religious sentiments? Mention any moniker you know and let them give us an answer. Let me call your friend and brother fergie001 and Kyase you've been arguing with. I'm even surprised you can say that while you went about proving otherwise, and lastly, failed to mention what drives vote in the north. What do you mean by Buhari "struggled" to win 3 times in a row? Can a team struggle to win 3-0?
Look at all the names you claimed defeated other northerners. Is there a southerner among them? I already told you, and I stand by it. North vote first, pro-North, then Islam. That is why Yaradua could defeat Buhari in the North and turn the whole NW to PDP in 2007 with the exception of Zamfara. Yaradua was not as fanatical as Buhari mind you, who had claimed that he supports and will implement sharia throughout Nigeria. But Yaradua, through his family name was seen as more pro-North than Buhari. Even the Ahmadu Bello you mentioned was very pro-North and that was why he was able to lock down the North against the wishes of Awolowo who wanted to separate the Middle Belt
Go and read what I said. I said PDP was in charge of NW before 2015. I never said from 1999 to 2015. You're the one who interpreted that based on pure emotions.
Go and check the history. The only time a southerner beat a northerner in the core north was 1993 and we all know it was due to the support of the military establishment then, and not just pure political factors. It is also interesting to note that same military betrayed Abiola and the North turned against him immediately and supported the military govt headed by northerners. Do you think if it was a southerner that headed the military govt of Abacha, he would last so long and even have the effrontery to transmute to a civilian president?
On Nasarawa, it was a mistake I made. I swapped the governorship for the presidential results. The only reason you have given to claim that Tinubu will win the North is the popularity of APC there. But what I'm pointing out to you is that APC was not in charge of the North before 2015 so it is infantile to claim traditional stronghold of the North for APC. The PDP had more governors in the North than either ANPP or CPC pre-2015. It was the change tsunami led by Buhari that tilted things in APC's favour in the north. I daresay, if there was no Buhari, whatever merger they did in 2013-14 would have ultimately been an exercise in futility. That's what I'm pointing out to you.
And on the Edo matter. What exactly are you about? APC lost na I thought the Jagaban and Oshiomole would be too powerful for Obaseki who performed poorly according to you. Where you not the one shouting up apc before the elections?

100%.

Agboriotejoye:
This boy.
You went all about to buttress my point that the north vote based on ethno-religious sentiments while your initial claim was that it is not true that the north votes based on ethno-religious sentiments. I think we should call monikers who we know are very active in politics on this forum and ask that simple question. Even a baby should be able to answer. Does the north vote on pure performance or governance issues or on ethno-religious sentiments? Mention any moniker you know and let them give us an answer. Let me call your friend and brother fergie001 and Kyase you've been arguing with. I'm even surprised you can say that while you went about proving otherwise, and lastly, failed to mention what drives vote in the north. What do you mean by Buhari "struggled" to win 3 times in a row? Can a team struggle to win 3-0?
Look at all the names you claimed defeated other northerners. Is there a southerner among them? I already told you, and I stand by it. North vote first, pro-North, then Islam. That is why Yaradua could defeat Buhari in the North and turn the whole NW to PDP in 2007 with the exception of Zamfara. Yaradua was not as fanatical as Buhari mind you, who had claimed that he supports and will implement sharia throughout Nigeria. But Yaradua, through his family name was seen as more pro-North than Buhari. Even the Ahmadu Bello you mentioned was very pro-North and that was why he was able to lock down the North against the wishes of Awolowo who wanted to separate the Middle Belt
Go and read what I said. I said PDP was in charge of NW before 2015. I never said from 1999 to 2015. You're the one who interpreted that based on pure emotions.
Go and check the history. The only time a southerner beat a northerner in the core north was 1993 and we all know it was due to the support of the military establishment then, and not just pure political factors. It is also interesting to note that same military betrayed Abiola and the North turned against him immediately and supported the military govt headed by northerners. Do you think if it was a southerner that headed the military govt of Abacha, he would last so long and even have the effrontery to transmute to a civilian president?
On Nasarawa, it was a mistake I made. I swapped the governorship for the presidential results. The only reason you have given to claim that Tinubu will win the North is the popularity of APC there. But what I'm pointing out to you is that APC was not in charge of the North before 2015 so it is infantile to claim traditional stronghold of the North for APC. The PDP had more governors in the North than either ANPP or CPC pre-2015. It was the change tsunami led by Buhari that tilted things in APC's favour in the north. I daresay, if there was no Buhari, whatever merger they did in 2013-14 would have ultimately been an exercise in futility. That's what I'm pointing out to you.
And on the Edo matter. What exactly are you about? APC lost na I thought the Jagaban and Oshiomole would be too powerful for Obaseki who performed poorly according to you. Where you not the one shouting up apc before the elections?

Point of correction though, buhari was not voted because of ethnic or religious colouration given to him, something similar to what obi people are trying to do now was what propelled buhari in 2015 (let's not forget that he spent years building a reputation of 'mai gaskiya) plus the failures of the then fg, almost all issues that the current administration failed at, all over the nw people are tired of APC especially at the federal level while every other region suffers from one form of misadministration or the other. A dead horse is more enticing to a lot of people than APC as things stand.

Agboriotejoye:
This boy.
You went all about to buttress my point that the north vote based on ethno-religious sentiments while your initial claim was that it is not true that the north votes based on ethno-religious sentiments. I think we should call monikers who we know are very active in politics on this forum and ask that simple question. Even a baby should be able to answer. Does the north vote on pure performance or governance issues or on ethno-religious sentiments? Mention any moniker you know and let them give us an answer. Let me call your friend and brother fergie001 and Kyase you've been arguing with. I'm even surprised you can say that while you went about proving otherwise, and lastly, failed to mention what drives vote in the north. What do you mean by Buhari "struggled" to win 3 times in a row? Can a team struggle to win 3-0?
Look at all the names you claimed defeated other northerners. Is there a southerner among them? I already told you, and I stand by it. North vote first, pro-North, then Islam. That is why Yaradua could defeat Buhari in the North and turn the whole NW to PDP in 2007 with the exception of Zamfara. Yaradua was not as fanatical as Buhari mind you, who had claimed that he supports and will implement sharia throughout Nigeria. But Yaradua, through his family name was seen as more pro-North than Buhari. Even the Ahmadu Bello you mentioned was very pro-North and that was why he was able to lock down the North against the wishes of Awolowo who wanted to separate the Middle Belt
Go and read what I said. I said PDP was in charge of NW before 2015. I never said from 1999 to 2015. You're the one who interpreted that based on pure emotions.
Go and check the history. The only time a southerner beat a northerner in the core north was 1993 and we all know it was due to the support of the military establishment then, and not just pure political factors. It is also interesting to note that same military betrayed Abiola and the North turned against him immediately and supported the military govt headed by northerners. Do you think if it was a southerner that headed the military govt of Abacha, he would last so long and even have the effrontery to transmute to a civilian president?
On Nasarawa, it was a mistake I made. I swapped the governorship for the presidential results. The only reason you have given to claim that Tinubu will win the North is the popularity of APC there. But what I'm pointing out to you is that APC was not in charge of the North before 2015 so it is infantile to claim traditional stronghold of the North for APC. The PDP had more governors in the North than either ANPP or CPC pre-2015. It was the change tsunami led by Buhari that tilted things in APC's favour in the north. I daresay, if there was no Buhari, whatever merger they did in 2013-14 would have ultimately been an exercise in futility. That's what I'm pointing out to you.
And on the Edo matter. What exactly are you about? APC lost na I thought the Jagaban and Oshiomole would be too powerful for Obaseki who performed poorly according to you. Where you not the one shouting up apc before the elections?

Can’t talk much on gardfield1, the dude is purely controlled by emotions, he doesn’t seat and see logic in all his political permutations

Unless there’s last minute change, Atiku is the next president of this country

Agboriotejoye:
This boy.
You went all about to buttress my point that the north vote based on ethno-religious sentiments while your initial claim was that it is not true that the north votes based on ethno-religious sentiments. I think we should call monikers who we know are very active in politics on this forum and ask that simple question. Even a baby should be able to answer. Does the north vote on pure performance or governance issues or on ethno-religious sentiments? Mention any moniker you know and let them give us an answer. Let me call your friend and brother fergie001 and Kyase you've been arguing with. I'm even surprised you can say that while you went about proving otherwise, and lastly, failed to mention what drives vote in the north. What do you mean by Buhari "struggled" to win 3 times in a row? Can a team struggle to win 3-0?
Look at all the names you claimed defeated other northerners. Is there a southerner among them? I already told you, and I stand by it. North vote first, pro-North, then Islam. That is why Yaradua could defeat Buhari in the North and turn the whole NW to PDP in 2007 with the exception of Zamfara. Yaradua was not as fanatical as Buhari mind you, who had claimed that he supports and will implement sharia throughout Nigeria. But Yaradua, through his family name was seen as more pro-North than Buhari. Even the Ahmadu Bello you mentioned was very pro-North and that was why he was able to lock down the North against the wishes of Awolowo who wanted to separate the Middle Belt
Go and read what I said. I said PDP was in charge of NW before 2015. I never said from 1999 to 2015. You're the one who interpreted that based on pure emotions.
Go and check the history. The only time a southerner beat a northerner in the core north was 1993 and we all know it was due to the support of the military establishment then, and not just pure political factors. It is also interesting to note that same military betrayed Abiola and the North turned against him immediately and supported the military govt headed by northerners. Do you think if it was a southerner that headed the military govt of Abacha, he would last so long and even have the effrontery to transmute to a civilian president?
On Nasarawa, it was a mistake I made. I swapped the governorship for the presidential results. The only reason you have given to claim that Tinubu will win the North is the popularity of APC there. But what I'm pointing out to you is that APC was not in charge of the North before 2015 so it is infantile to claim traditional stronghold of the North for APC. The PDP had more governors in the North than either ANPP or CPC pre-2015. It was the change tsunami led by Buhari that tilted things in APC's favour in the north. I daresay, if there was no Buhari, whatever merger they did in 2013-14 would have ultimately been an exercise in futility. That's what I'm pointing out to you.
And on the Edo matter. What exactly are you about? APC lost na I thought the Jagaban and Oshiomole would be too powerful for Obaseki who performed poorly according to you. Where you not the one shouting up apc before the elections?

Yaradua was never pro north than Buhari.the military stopped supporting abiola after he refused to pick pascal bafyau.the love the north has for buhari has transcended to apc.apc is now firmly established in the north.notice that between 2003-2011,apart from borno,yobe and zamfara, candidates in the core north hardly won elections under buhari party.buhari won most core north states but guber and legislative candidates lose.but from 2015,apc wins almost all elections up north meaning apc has been firmly rooted.even pre 2015,pdp controlled nw only at state level not federal and buhari.for buhari to get 12 mil up north and destroy gej,he needed an alliance of parties plus massive defections.for atiku to win,he also need a lot of governors to defect and internal sabotage within apc.that ain't happening son.the election is between tinubu and obi.up tinubu

Kyase:
Can’t talk much on gardfield1, the dude is purely controlled by emotions, he doesn’t seat and see logic in all his political permutations

Unless there’s last minute change, Atiku is the next president of this country

Ok sir.let me see how he will win without rivers and half of pdp.

Trinitycian:
You don't know what you're talking about. They don't hate PDP or APC or DSTV or NTA.. Lol. They hate the candidate running on it. Same for love. In other words, they don't hate or love a party, but the candidate.

And I am telling you categorically that Tinubu will be humiliated in the North. That you're saying Hausa Fulani love Tinubu more than Atiku shows how shallow your reasoning is.

Tinubu's chances, up North would depend on Buhari's endorsement and Sbettima's goodwill.

Is Buhari's popularity still unassailable? Is it what it was? Can it move core Northern voters?

Tinubu is riding on Buhari.

garfield1:
You said atiku will divide northern votes in 2019.,atiku is not that popular,they dont like him.the core north loves fanatics not liberals like Atiku

I'm apolitical b4 I start. Despite that, if I was to pick a candidate, Atiku would be my favorite.

Atiku is delusional. He has no people power or mass appeal in the North. Many core Northerners simply see him as a fat crook.

The core North votes would be brutally fought over him by Kwantwaso and Tinubu. Tinubu should not be shoved aside easily. He would have Buhari's endorsement and Sbettima's strong appeal in Bornu, Yobe, and probably other parts of the North.

Atiku's power base may be in the Middle Belt alone.

Atiku's strong base among educated youths in the South in 2019 seems to have shifted to Peter Obi today.

I dont see him winning any election. And it's all his fault. If he had chosen to spend $10m yearly, or even half that sum on philanthropy up North and some in the South, he would have been a very power challenger.

garfield1:
Yaradua was never pro north than Buhari.the military stopped supporting abiola after he refused to pick pascal bafyau.the love the north has for buhari has transcended to apc.apc is now firmly established in the north.notice that between 2003-2011,apart from borno,yobe and zamfara, candidates in the core north hardly won elections under buhari party.buhari won most core north states but guber and legislative candidates lose.but from 2015,apc wins almost all elections up north meaning apc has been firmly rooted.even pre 2015,pdp controlled nw only at state level not federal and buhari.for buhari to get 12 mil up north and destroy gej,he needed an alliance of parties plus massive defections.for atiku to win,he also need a lot of governors to defect and internal sabotage within apc.that ain't happening son.the election is between tinubu and obi.up tinubu

Lol. This boy again. Yaradua is not pro-north. After Shagari of 1979, who emerged leader of the north in the late 80s and early 90s? Shehu. Elder brother of Umaru. His political movement of PDM was the vehicle that birthed SDP.
You're beginning to sound confused. Same you who listed states won by ANPP in 1999 and 2003 now say ANPP hardly won elections in the North. May I remind you that ANPP was the manor opposition party in the national legislature from 1999 to 2011.
I already told you. And another moniker also came to confirm it. In the North, the drift away from APC has already begun. They don't need govs to defect. The people are already moving citing APC's failure. But we know it's all a lie. It's because a Southerner is on the ticket.
Don't worry. Eye go clear you soon.

Agboriotejoye:
Lol. This boy again. Yaradua is not pro-north. After Shagari of 1979, who emerged leader of the north in the late 80s and early 90s? Shehu. Elder brother of Umaru. His political movement of PDM was the vehicle that birthed SDP.
You're beginning to sound confused. Same you who listed states won by ANPP in 1999 and 2003 now say ANPP hardly won elections in the North. May I remind you that ANPP was the manor opposition party in the national legislature from 1999 to 2011.
I already told you. And another moniker also came to confirm it. In the North, the drift away from APC has already begun. They don't need govs to defect. The people are already moving citing APC's failure. But we know it's all a lie. It's because a Southerner is on the ticket.
Don't worry. Eye go clear you soon.

You know the annoying thing is that you never learn or admit your amateurish mistakes.just like in the case of tinubu after he won the primaries,you saw how fergie and others moved on.you won't,instead you will now move on to how tinubu health is failing,how he can't control the parties etc...

The north is not moving.they have been more defections from pdp to apc,labour and nnpp.can you compare these miniscule defections to that apc faced in 2019? I think you need to clear your eyes since you can't see that pdp is losing members in droves.have you seen any defection in jigawa,zamfara? Borno,yobe,gombe? Can't you read to see that most of the defectors are doing so because they lost out and not because of atiku? Have you seen anybody in apc that won primaries defecting? You will learn by force boyishly

Agboriotejoye:
Lol. This boy again. Yaradua is not pro-north. After Shagari of 1979, who emerged leader of the north in the late 80s and early 90s? Shehu. Elder brother of Umaru. His political movement of PDM was the vehicle that birthed SDP.
You're beginning to sound confused. Same you who listed states won by ANPP in 1999 and 2003 now say ANPP hardly won elections in the North. May I remind you that ANPP was the manor opposition party in the national legislature from 1999 to 2011.
I already told you. And another moniker also came to confirm it. In the North, the drift away from APC has already begun. They don't need govs to defect. The people are already moving citing APC's failure. But we know it's all a lie. It's because a Southerner is on the ticket.
Don't worry. Eye go clear you soon.

Wrong again, a lot of people I know were ready to vote osinbajo over atiku. Almost everyone citing atiku is just trying to run away from tinubu not because they like atiku bit he is seen as a lesser evil than BAT.

garfield1:
You know the annoying thing is that you never learn or admit your amateurish mistakes.just like in the case of tinubu after he won the primaries,you saw how fergie and others moved on.you won't,instead you will now move on to how tinubu health is failing,how he can't control the parties etc...

The north is not moving.they have been more defections from pdp to apc,labour and nnpp.can you compare these miniscule defections to that apc faced in 2019? I think you need to clear your eyes since you can't see that pdp is losing members in droves.have you seen any defection in jigawa,zamfara? Borno,yobe,gombe? Can't you read to see that most of the defectors are doing so because they lost out and not because of atiku? Have you seen anybody in apc that won primaries defecting? You will learn by force boyishly

Truth is, people are fed up with APC they are ready to elect the devil before APC at the presidentials. The person that stands a better chance is atiky out of all candidates, so people gravitate towards him, besides, people are starting to genuinely doubt all the cooked up stories about atiku from OBJ, knowing him as a snake. A lot is going on.

SU50:
Truth is, people are fed up with APC they are ready to elect the devil before APC at the presidentials. The person that stands a better chance is atiky out of all candidates, so people gravitate towards him, besides, people are starting to genuinely doubt all the cooked up stories about atiku from OBJ, knowing him as a snake. A lot is going on.

People are gravitating towards obi not atiku

nedu666:
You see wat i am saying. Southerners will sit down in their room and be analysing how the north will vote. Allocating northern votes to ur candidates as if northerner voters are daft

The North will answer to all the fame seeking folks with their PVCs

[quote author=garfield1 post=115677281]People are gravitating towards obi not atiku[/quote
Am afraid social media and real life are worlds apart.

[quote author=SU50 post=115678361][/quote]Same happened in 2015

garfield1:
Same happened in 2015

You are mixing things up.

By the way, why are you mortally afraid of atiku?

SU50:
You are mixing things up.

By the way, why are you mortally afraid of atiku?

Partially

garfield1:
You know the annoying thing is that you never learn or admit your amateurish mistakes.just like in the case of tinubu after he won the primaries,you saw how fergie and others moved on.you won't,instead you will now move on to how tinubu health is failing,how he can't control the parties etc...

The north is not moving.they have been more defections from pdp to apc,labour and nnpp.can you compare these miniscule defections to that apc faced in 2019? I think you need to clear your eyes since you can't see that pdp is losing members in droves.have you seen any defection in jigawa,zamfara? Borno,yobe,gombe? Can't you read to see that most of the defectors are doing so because they lost out and not because of atiku? Have you seen anybody in apc that won primaries defecting? You will learn by force boyishly

Lol. It is you that is so unstable and incoherent. You claimed North don't vote on ethnoreligious sentiments yet you didn't tell me what they vote on.
You claimed Yaradua was not pro-north but I showed you his brother and his political movement were the most popular in the North all through the 90s.
Most times, you want to force your opinion as a fact when it's not. I have my facts about the North.
So when I say there's a drift, I know what I'm referring to. You only base your assumptions on newspaper headlines. I doubt if you've been to the North or have northern friends who are political.
Anyway, time will tell if I'm right or you are.
The other guy mentioned that North I tired of APC and I agree. But I also agree that it is due to the fact that power is being moved from them not really performance issues. Buhari was woeful in his first term as well, yet North reinforced their votes for him in 2019.
We'll see how it goes

Agboriotejoye:
Lol. It is you that is so unstable and incoherent. You claimed North don't vote on ethnoreligious sentiments yet you didn't tell me what they vote on.
You claimed Yaradua was not pro-north but I showed you his brother and his political movement were the most popular in the North all through the 90s.
Most times, you want to force your opinion as a fact when it's not. I have my facts about the North.
So when I say there's a drift, I know what I'm referring to. You only base your assumptions on newspaper headlines. I doubt if you've been to the North or have northern friends who are political.
Anyway, time will tell if I'm right or you are.
The other guy mentioned that North I tired of APC and I agree. But I also agree that it is due to the fact that power is being moved from them not really performance issues. Buhari was woeful in his first term as well, yet North reinforced their votes for him in 2019.
We'll see how it goes

I repeat,no northerner has gotten the kind of votes buhari got except balewa because a northern god was behind him and because regional politics was played as at then.NPC was dominant in the core north,a.g in the west and ncnc in the east so this was expected.shagari never got this even as an incumbent.atiku does not have that appeal,the charisma.he is not seen the same way ahmadu bello,buhari and even late yaradua are seen or loved.again, another formidable northerner in kwankwaso who has more appeal among the talakawas is contesting and will divide votes just like in 1979.shagari shared votes with waziri ibrahim but luckily upn and npn were almost non existent up north so couldn't take advantage.awolowo had an Igbo running mate so didn't appeal to the north.he only did well in he chose a formidable northerner and made forays up north,he would have won.tinubu will certainly win the sw.unlike awolowo, his party biggest stronghold is up north plus he has personal alliances with northerners so he will do we there unlike awolowo.the se is gone with obi and ss is getting divided.
Pdp biggest voting base has alwats been ss/se.their victories has always been because of bloc votes from these zones but this is gone.the only reason you think atiku will win us because he is a prominent northerner but this doesnt guarantee votes.he is not even sure of winning any zone in the south.
I remember telling you once that buhari votes in the core north is not just down to popularity but party structure.the anpp has always been strong in the core north.when he defected to form CPC,a large number of CPC and political stalwarts from anpp followed him.on the other hand,pdp is almost non existent in zamfara,borno,yobe,katsina.kano.what is giving pdp life in kebbi is the defection of aliero,tambuwal is keeping it alive in sokoto,lamido in jigawa.in 2015 polls,the was massive allegation of rigging up noryh.,you saw the videos of underage voting and mass thumbprinting and intimidation of voters.you saw inec data on manual voting up north.same in 2019.does pdp have the structure to contain apc? No.your atiku will be overrun certainly just like in 2019.
Defections have been part of our polity.the only time it caused change of power was in 2015.we won't witness such again.which governor is likely to join pdp? El rufai.but his son is contesting under apc plus his stooges.he is the new godfather of Kaduna via apc.if he wanted to defect,he would have done so since.if he tries sabotaging tinubu,it might affect his candidates in other polls just like it did to pdp in 2015.who else may work against tinubu? Buni.unfortunately he is going fir 2nd term and his godfathers bukar Abba and gaidam are with shettima.you can see how they are treating lawan for daring tinubu.yahaya bello can defect but he already has stooges running elections.Kaduna and kogi are states that will be won narrowly so even the govs defect,no lele.ortom,wike,makinde,crs pdp,ugwuanyi,ikpeazu,dankwambo,hang etc are already working against atiku.
So you see,atiku chances of winning are slim compared to tinubu.

garfield1:
I repeat,no northerner has gotten the kind of votes buhari got except balewa because a northern god was behind him and because regional politics was played as at then.NPC was dominant in the core north,a.g in the west and ncnc in the east so this was expected.shagari never got this even as an incumbent.atiku does not have that appeal,the charisma.he is not seen the same way ahmadu bello,buhari and even late yaradua are seen or loved.again, another formidable northerner in kwankwaso who has more appeal among the talakawas is contesting and will divide votes just like in 1979.shagari shared votes with waziri ibrahim but luckily upn and npn were almost non existent up north so couldn't take advantage.awolowo had an Igbo running mate so didn't appeal to the north.he only did well in he chose a formidable northerner and made forays up north,he would have won.tinubu will certainly win the sw.unlike awolowo, his party biggest stronghold is up north plus he has personal alliances with northerners so he will do we there unlike awolowo.the se is gone with obi and ss is getting divided.
Pdp biggest voting base has alwats been ss/se.their victories has always been because of bloc votes from these zones but this is gone.the only reason you think atiku will win us because he is a prominent northerner but this doesnt guarantee votes.he is not even sure of winning any zone in the south.
I remember telling you once that buhari votes in the core north is not just down to popularity but party structure.the anpp has always been strong in the core north.when he defected to form CPC,a large number of CPC and political stalwarts from anpp followed him.on the other hand,pdp is almost non existent in zamfara,borno,yobe,katsina.kano.what is giving pdp life in kebbi is the defection of aliero,tambuwal is keeping it alive in sokoto,lamido in jigawa.in 2015 polls,the was massive allegation of rigging up noryh.,you saw the videos of underage voting and mass thumbprinting and intimidation of voters.you saw inec data on manual voting up north.same in 2019.does pdp have the structure to contain apc? No.your atiku will be overrun certainly just like in 2019.
Defections have been part of our polity.the only time it caused change of power was in 2015.we won't witness such again.which governor is likely to join pdp? El rufai.but his son is contesting under apc plus his stooges.he is the new godfather of Kaduna via apc.if he wanted to defect,he would have done so since.if he tries sabotaging tinubu,it might affect his candidates in other polls just like it did to pdp in 2015.who else may work against tinubu? Buni.unfortunately he is going fir 2nd term and his godfathers bukar Abba and gaidam are with shettima.you can see how they are treating lawan for daring tinubu.yahaya bello can defect but he already has stooges running elections.Kaduna and kogi are states that will be won narrowly so even the govs defect,no lele.ortom,wike,makinde,crs pdp,ugwuanyi,ikpeazu,dankwambo,hang etc are already working against atiku.
So you see,atiku chances of winning are slim compared to tinubu.

You just keep making contradictory points. When did regional politics end in Nigeria? Buhari who won the North consistently but couldn't win the south was not regional? What about Tinubu? Is he not a regional leader too? What do you mean by the bloc votes you've been referring to if you say there's no regional politics in Nigeria now?
Can I ask you what got Ahmadu Bello, Buhari, Yaradua, Kwankwaso the appeal you say Atiku does not have? You still fail to dispute what drives votes in the North. Are they sophisticated voters who vote on issues? If so, what issues are germane to them? All the people you mentioned as appealing to the northern voters are all northern Muslims.

It is a massive lie to claim Buhari got votes due to party structure. If it is a question of structure, can you then explain why his party won only one state and hardly had any NASs member. Even his home state was PDP from 1999 to 2015. How come he couldn't deliver his state for his party from 2003-2015?
It is also funny you suddenly agree there's massive rigging in the North. You once argued with me that the North don't rig as much as the south, which is why they have less tribunal cases and always deliver close numbers. Now you're saying something different. Yet you say you understand Nigerian politics. It's very obvious you only say what you think supports your point at each turn not that you have understanding of issues of politics in Nigeria.
Defections of governors and big politicians is not same as grassroots defection. For example. Write it down. PDP will win Cross River in 2023. Ebonyi will either go to LP or PDP. Same with Imo. I can count many states that have been lost to the opposition by sitting governors. You're making your argument on governors who defect for their own political survival. I'm talking about grassroots movement.
What gave ANPP stronghold in the North in 1999 was its perception as a northern party just like AD in SW. By 2007 when a northerner Yaradua mounted PDP's ticket, ANPP lost so many states and NASS seats. Meanwhile no ANPP governor in the North defected to PDP. Same with 2015. States in the North that have been traditional PDP stronghold since 1999 like Niger, Kaduna and Katsina were lost to APC while their govs did not defect to APC. What happened? Can you explain?

Agboriotejoye:
You just keep making contradictory points. When did regional politics end in Nigeria? Buhari who won the North consistently but couldn't win the south was not regional? What about Tinubu? Is he not a regional leader too? What do you mean by the bloc votes you've been referring to if you say there's no regional politics in Nigeria now?
Can I ask you what got Ahmadu Bello, Buhari, Yaradua, Kwankwaso the appeal you say Atiku does not have? You still fail to dispute what drives votes in the North. Are they sophisticated voters who vote on issues? If so, what issues are germane to them? All the people you mentioned as appealing to the northern voters are all northern Muslims.

It is a massive lie to claim Buhari got votes due to party structure. If it is a question of structure, can you then explain why his party won only one state and hardly had any NASs member. Even his home state was PDP from 1999 to 2015. How come he couldn't deliver his state for his party from 2003-2015?
It is also funny you suddenly agree there's massive rigging in the North. You once argued with me that the North don't rig as much as the south, which is why they have less tribunal cases and always deliver close numbers. Now you're saying something different. Yet you say you understand Nigerian politics. It's very obvious you only say what you think supports your point at each turn not that you have understanding of issues of politics in Nigeria.
Defections of governors and big politicians is not same as grassroots defection. For example. Write it down. PDP will win Cross River in 2023. Ebonyi will either go to LP or PDP. Same with Imo. I can count many states that have been lost to the opposition by sitting governors. You're making your argument on governors who defect for their own political survival. I'm talking about grassroots movement.
What gave ANPP stronghold in the North in 1999 was its perception as a northern party just like AD in SW. By 2007 when a northerner Yaradua mounted PDP's ticket, ANPP lost so many states and NASS seats. Meanwhile no ANPP governor in the North defected to PDP. Same with 2015. States in the North that have been traditional PDP stronghold since 1999 like Niger, Kaduna and Katsina were lost to APC while their govs did not defect to APC. What happened? Can you explain?

Oga pdp has lost the guber poll in crs already.everybody is championing prince otu.even the imoke camp is not with sandy and sandy is with wike and is not campaigning for atiku.atiku is on his own.he can only win crs narrowly.ebonyi is between lp and apc all the way.pdp has been beset by infighting since umahi defected.same thing in IMO.uzodinma is gradually taking over pdp territories in owerri zone while pdp camp is divided between samdaddy and ihedioha...it is labour then apc...
Ahmadu bello was a Muslim fanatic and a northern champion and bigot.he furthered pro northern interests sharia,fulani supremacy.buhari has been doing this since 2002.atiku is liberal,he is nationalistic and not conservative.he surrounds himself with elites from all over the country and prefer western things compared to the pious and simple looking buhari and ahmadu bello and even yaradua.have you ever seen atiku speaking about sharia? Again,he is seen a corrupt fellow.it is only recently that atiku started speaking about ruga,grazing routes and the Deborah issue but the northerners know it is artificial.he does not resonate with the talakawas or almajiris.you can see kwankwaso defending almajiris,going down to the south to defend hausas that clashed with southerners,speaking for herdsmen.look at how atiku lost his polling unit,how shameful.the north will prefer someone from a Muslim dominated state not atiku from a mixed state....
In all elections in nigeria,there is always element of rigging.the apc structure up north can easily do that.there is rigging up north but not like the south,thats not the issue.the issue is that atiku cannot just win.he does not have the grassroot support or the men that will deliver and fight for him come election day.compare people around tinubu and those around atiku.
Now,whenever presidential elections usually take place before guber polls,theres usually a bandwagon effect on states.most states choose to align with the centre like in 1983,2003,2007,2011,2015,2019 and same will happen next year.any party that wins presidential elections will win most guber polls.
The biggest political factor in a state is the governor.he is the party leader in a state.he dominates the grassroot and calls the shots except where theres a stronger godfather like in lagos,borno,yobe etc.even if a governor does not defect,there must be massive statewide defection but thats not happening.in 2007,yaradua was virtually rigged in by obj,pdp was the ruling party.currently,pdp is divided,a lot of northerners want a southern president.more than half of the party fans in the south are with obi.he does not have the advantages or luxury yaradua had or shagari had in 1979.shagari had to win the ss region massively to secure his victory.atiku cannot win any southern zone massively.he has lost out.

garfield1:
Oga pdp has lost the guber poll in crs already.everybody is championing prince otu.even the imoke camp is not with sandy and sandy is with wike and is not campaigning for atiku.atiku is on his own.he can only win crs narrowly.ebonyi is between lp and apc all the way.pdp has been beset by infighting since umahi defected.same thing in IMO.uzodinma is gradually taking over pdp territories in owerri zone while pdp camp is divided between samdaddy and ihedioha...it is labour then apc...
Ahmadu bello was a Muslim fanatic and a northern champion and bigot.he furthered pro northern interests sharia,fulani supremacy.buhari has been doing this since 2002.atiku is liberal,he is nationalistic and not conservative.he surrounds himself with elites from all over the country and prefer western things compared to the pious and simple looking buhari and ahmadu bello and even yaradua.have you ever seen atiku speaking about sharia? Again,he is seen a corrupt fellow.it is only recently that atiku started speaking about ruga,grazing routes and the Deborah issue but the northerners know it is artificial.he does not resonate with the talakawas or almajiris.you can see kwankwaso defending almajiris,going down to the south to defend hausas that clashed with southerners,speaking for herdsmen.look at how atiku lost his polling unit,how shameful.the north will prefer someone from a Muslim dominated state not atiku from a mixed state....
In all elections in nigeria,there is always element of rigging.the apc structure up north can easily do that.there is rigging up north but not like the south,thats not the issue.the issue is that atiku cannot just win.he does not have the grassroot support or the men that will deliver and fight for him come election day.compare people around tinubu and those around atiku.
Now,whenever presidential elections usually take place before guber polls,theres usually a bandwagon effect on states.most states choose to align with the centre like in 1983,2003,2007,2011,2015,2019 and same will happen next year.any party that wins presidential elections will win most guber polls.
The biggest political factor in a state is the governor.he is the party leader in a state.he dominates the grassroot and calls the shots except where theres a stronger godfather like in lagos,borno,yobe etc.even if a governor does not defect,there must be massive statewide defection but thats not happening.in 2007,yaradua was virtually rigged in by obj,pdp was the ruling party.currently,pdp is divided,a lot of northerners want a southern president.more than half of the party fans in the south are with obi.he does not have the advantages or luxury yaradua had or shagari had in 1979.shagari had to win the ss region massively to secure his victory.atiku cannot win any southern zone massively.he has lost out.

This boy. You went round and round and came back to Atiku will will CRS. Since you said Ebonyi is between LP and APC, we shall see. Same for Imo with the Supreme Court gov
There problem with your analysis is that you're looking at the votes from the angle of the contestants, not the electorate. What do the electorates want? The electorates in the North believe a notherner no matter how bad is better than a southerner. The northern Muslims believe power should not leave them. If anyone tells you northern Muslims support power shift to the South, such person is deceiving you. They are very sentimental people. They don't believe in logic of fairness or rotation of power. Why did Buhari and co want to hand over the ticket of APC to a notherner if it's true that the average notherner wants power shift. Why did PDP refuse to zone to the South? Is it not obvious the PDP did not want to alienate northern voters by zoning South? Same with APC?
Lol. You've changed mouth again. So no more "massive rigging" in the North. You can't just stay in one place.
You're still contradicting yourself. The biggest political factor is the governor or bandwagon. Which is it? Because if the governor is the biggest political factor, then it is a given that his party will will the presidential in his domain and the bandwagon is dormant. If bandwagon is it, then the governor's influence is limited. If bandwagon is so very true, most of those who stayed in PDP to destroy it from inside in 2015 wouldn't have done so because they know they will go with it. The fact is, the bandwagon of 2015 was based on a decision in the North too get rid of PDP. The same bandwagon did not hold in the South.
Do you agree that if Atiku wins South and North, he's the president? Do you agree that is possible?

Agboriotejoye:

This boy. You went round and round and came back to Atiku will will CRS. Since you said Ebonyi is between LP and APC, we shall see. Same for Imo with the Supreme Court gov
There problem with your analysis is that you're looking at the votes from the angle of the contestants, not the electorate. What do the electorates want? The electorates in the North believe a notherner no matter how bad is better than a southerner. The northern Muslims believe power should not leave them. If anyone tells you northern Muslims support power shift to the South, such person is deceiving you. They are very sentimental people. They don't believe in logic of fairness or rotation of power. Why did Buhari and co want to hand over the ticket of APC to a notherner if it's true that the average notherner wants power shift. Why did PDP refuse to zone to the South? Is it not obvious the PDP did not want to alienate northern voters by zoning South? Same with APC?
Lol. You've changed mouth again. So no more "massive rigging" in the North. You can't just stay in one place.
You're still contradicting yourself. The biggest political factor is the governor or bandwagon. Which is it? Because if the governor is the biggest political factor, then it is a given that his party will will the presidential in his domain and the bandwagon is dormant. If bandwagon is it, then the governor's influence is limited. If bandwagon is so very true, most of those who stayed in PDP to destroy it from inside in 2015 wouldn't have done so because they know they will go with it. The fact is, the bandwagon of 2015 was based on a decision in the North too get rid of PDP. The same bandwagon did not hold in the South.
Do you agree that if Atiku wins South and North, he's the president? Do you agree that is possible?

Theres no proof to show that electorates in the north want atiku.infact,available proofs shows they fancy kwankwaso. In 2015,they decided to deliver buhari across all party.have such decision been made concerning atiku? Any proof.available proof online shows most of those fronting atiku are even southerners not northerners.
Winning or getting votes in a corrupt society in nigeria is decided by different factors from popularity,rigging,structure,allies,local factors,inec etc not a monocausal factor as you think.Nigerian politics is fluid and fkexibke hence I adapt as the pace changes.
Not just atiku but whoever wins three regions wins.if atiku wins the north and wins just a zone in the south,he wins.but it is not likely.the odds are against him.highest he can get is a narrow win in the north and a narrow win in ss and if tinubu wins the sw massively plus a narrow northern lose,he wins.shikena

garfield1:
Theres no proof to show that electorates in the north want atiku.infact,available proofs shows they fancy kwankwaso. In 2015,they decided to deliver buhari across all party.have such decision been made concerning atiku? Any proof.available proof online shows most of those fronting atiku are even southerners not northerners.
Winning or getting votes in a corrupt society in nigeria is decided by different factors from popularity,rigging,structure,allies,local factors,inec etc not a monocausal factor as you think.Nigerian politics is fluid and fkexibke hence I adapt as the pace changes.
Not just atiku but whoever wins three regions wins.if atiku wins the north and wins just a zone in the south,he wins.but it is not likely.the odds are against him.highest he can get is a narrow win in the north and a narrow win in ss and if tinubu wins the sw massively plus a narrow northern lose,he wins.shikena

No. You're still missing the point. It is true that no one is being voted for across party lines. But it is that same fact that gives PDP the edge in the North because so many people who would ordinarily vote for PDP voted for APC in 2015 and 2019 because of Buhari. Such people are going to go back to voting PDP moreso since a notherner is on the ballot. Secondly, there are those in the APC who believe power should not shift. Those will vote a notherner over a Southerner.
Like I told you, go round the North. You will hardly see Tinubu's posters, but Atiku's posters are already springing up unlike 2019 when it was so hard to see Atiku posters in the North.
You're bringing corruption into the index now. Corruption is not a factor that sways votes. Rigging is not voting. Rigging is fraud. What drives votes is the question not what drives rigging.
If Atiku wins the North, wins SS and gets appreciable votes in the SE, he wins. The thing is Tinubu has already foregone the SS/SE with his Muslim Muslim ticket. SS/SE is between Atiku and PO. If Atiku wins North, SS and comes second with a good number in SE, he is home and dry.

Agboriotejoye:
No. You're still missing the point. It is true that no one is being voted for across party lines. But it is that same fact that gives PDP the edge in the North because so many people who would ordinarily vote for PDP voted for APC in 2015 and 2019 because of Buhari. Such people are going to go back to voting PDP moreso since a notherner is on the ballot. Secondly, there are those in the APC who believe power should not shift. Those will vote a notherner over a Southerner.
Like I told you, go round the North. You will hardly see Tinubu's posters, but Atiku's posters are already springing up unlike 2019 when it was so hard to see Atiku posters in the North.
You're bringing corruption into the index now. Corruption is not a factor that sways votes. Rigging is not voting. Rigging is fraud. What drives votes is the question not what drives rigging.
If Atiku wins the North, wins SS and gets appreciable votes in the SE, he wins. The thing is Tinubu has already foregone the SS/SE with his Muslim Muslim ticket. SS/SE is between Atiku and PO. If Atiku wins North, SS and comes second with a good number in SE, he is home and dry.

You are also missing it.an equal number of those who love apc are moving to apc from pdp.you cannot measure electoral penetration by posters and billboards but by grassroot structure.pdp is alien to a lot of areas in the north.there is no major player campaigning or funding or mobilizing for pdp or atiku in several areas.a lot of Northerners are influenced by their political leaders,pdp is lacking seriously in that regard.many of those people at the grassroot even in the south alwatlys wait for directives on who to vote.whether you agree or not,buhari will influence some votes.
Whether you like it or not,rigging or fraud is part of our system and apc will deploy it fully than atiku.the odds doesnt favour him.atiku has no body fighting for him in zamfara,yobe,borno,kano etc.you cannot compare tambuwal to wamakko.ss is between the three parties.most of the votes lp are getting in ss/se are formerly pdp votes.tinubu will do very well in all ss states except akwa ibom.tinubu will outdo atiku in ebonyi,IMO...atiku will lose woefully