BigSarah:


The SESS have a VP candidate in this election already, so there's no reason to go for a wild goose chase and loose two ways,.

If PO doesn't garner real electoral momentum like Gej in 2011, SESS will abandon him, even he himself will drop out

Lol thinking Okowa wields any influence in this election might means you don't really know Politics as much as you think you do.

You are based in the north so maybe you don't really know the level of Politics in the SS/SE. Imagine thinking Southeasterns will vote for a Fulani after eight years of Fulani leadership or vote for a Muslim Muslim ticket because of lack of "momentum" like you choose to put it.

nnewsnjobs:
Seun is not stable at all, today is Tinubu, tomorrow is Obi

But he forgot that the southern votes will be evenly distributed among the three candidates while the northern votes cannot be evenly distributed due to their voting pattern, although they will not be very high bloc votes this time around.

My prediction is in this order

Northern votes

Atiku--------------------------------45%
Tinubu-----------------------------30%
Obi----------------------------------15%
Kwankwaso and others -----10%


Southern votes
Tinubu-----------------------------35%
Obi----------------------------------32%
Atiku--------------------------------30%
Kwankwaso and others------3%

The winner is going to emerge with small margin. Atiku is going to be the winner.

2023 presidential election results between the winner and the runner up will look exactly like the last Osun governorship election result.

Tinubu will get more southern votes than Peter Obi?

IamAtikulate:
Yorubas that have never travelled outside their region said Atiku is not popular in the North.

Tinubu that was grappling with AD until Atiku merged his movement into the dying party to form AC.

Atiku is not popular in the North but Tinubu, a Yoruba Tijanniyya Moslem is?



I wish all these urchins will travel to the North and see what is happening.

Peter Obi has respected himself and focused on the North Central, Southern Kaduna, Northern Christian and Taraba in the NE, while shoring up his Southern base.

Make February come quick quick

Sincerely....I read this thread critically like romance novel (at least was able to notice how high APC e-base have their hope).

All I can say is Good luck to them .

(I like as obi noticed that core north may not favour him and just focused on NC,SS and partly SW).

To those saying north will vote Tinubu over Atiku (I don't know wether to laugh or be mean)......Good luck!!!!!!!!!

Obagreatdatoye:

That's how it should be....u don't vote mediocrity and terrorism because of tribe. Tribe could not save the hundreds killed in ondo Catholic church....our survival as a Christian comes first before tribe..thanks

Someone is talking

But don't disturb their juicy thread of Atlantis beautiful morning jolly.

Allow them hype and dine in this thread (February is not far by God's grace and we will see).

Just hype them more

Incoming president.....Bola Ahmed Tinubu . Can't wait

Bomboiy:


Lol thinking Okowa wields any influence in this election might means you don't really know Politics as much as you think you do.

You are based in the north so maybe you don't really know the level of Politics in the SS/SE. Imagine thinking Southeasterns will vote for a Fulani after eight years of Fulani leadership or vote for a Muslim Muslim ticket because of lack of "momentum" like you choose to put it.

By the time Tinubu campaigns starts showing promise, the SESS will realistically look at the chances, before December all will be known.

It's in the best interest of SESS that APC doesn't return, SESS are more against MM than fulani man, that's why they want atiku to go for a single term

LegendHero:


If we are to go by previous election then Tinubu will win 90% of all SW states.

1979, 1983, 1993, 1999, and 2003; the Yoruba candidates all get nothing less than 90% on average in the West.

Times have changed, anyone thinking Atiku will get 70% in all core North state is just being clever by half.

Atiku is not Buhari. If it had been Kwakwanso that is on that PDP ticket, then I will fear him more than Atiku.

the core north will do it for atiku even buhari associates are rooting for him queitly, you will get to know this a week before elections. Pdp won't get 100% from nc

googlepikins:
Stupidity is when you think Northerners will vote for Tinubu over their own Atiku.

Madness of the highest order

madness is when u don’t check history to know that

Northerners voted
Abiola instead of tofa
Obj instead of buhari
Jonathan instead of buhari


Buhari would have still lost out again if not for alliance with tinubu

Northerners are more of political calculations n not emotions,they are more logical
Atiku winning d election means 16 straight years of northern rule meaning they will b out of power for 16 straight years again

Atiku winning d election means Fulani ruling straight for 16 years which u know it’s nearly impossible

U n I know d north love power n they can’t afford to lose it like that,they prefer to use 8 years n give it to a southerner they trust like we saw in the case of ekweme and obj

Northerners will prefer a Yoruba than an Igbo they can’t trust

BigSarah:


By the time Tinubu campaigns starts showing promise, the SESS will realistically look at the chances, before December all will be known.

It's in the best interest of SESS that APC doesn't return, SESS are more against MM than fulani man, that's why they want atiku to go for a single term

What promises do you think will change the minds of educated southerners? One dollar to one naira? No ASUU strike? Good roads?


The truth is people see Atiku and Tinubu as one and the same,I have been in the SE almost all my life, people down here see Fulani leadership as bad as Muslim Muslim ticket. I am part of one of Obi's biggest grassroot mobilization group,I have interacted with numerous people in the SE and SS,I can tell you that they cannot choose Fulani man not after the rampage of Fulani herdsmen during the leadership of Buhari.

BTW any politically inclined person knows that Atiku would never do one term,he didn't contest six times for that. If he had agreed to do one term then wike would have squashed their beef.

BATified2023:
madness is when u don’t check history to know that

Northerners voted
Abiola instead of tofa
Obj instead of buhari
Jonathan instead of buhari


Buhari would have still lost out again if not for alliance with tinubu

Northerners are more of political calculations n not emotions,they are more logical
Atiku winning d election means 16 straight years of northern rule meaning they will b out of power for 16 straight years again

Atiku winning d election means Fulani ruling straight for 16 years which u know it’s nearly impossible

U n I know d north love power n they can’t afford to lose it like that,they prefer to use 8 years n give it to a southerner they trust like we saw in the case of ekweme and obj

Northerners will prefer a Yoruba than an Igbo they can’t trust

Northerners never voted for anyone ahead of Buhari.

Buhari has always won the core North hands down.

BATified2023:
madness is when u don’t check history to know that

Northerners voted
Abiola instead of tofa
Obj instead of buhari
Jonathan instead of buhari


Buhari would have still lost out again if not for alliance with tinubu

Northerners are more of political calculations n not emotions,they are more logical
Atiku winning d election means 16 straight years of northern rule meaning they will b out of power for 16 straight years again

Atiku winning d election means Fulani ruling straight for 16 years which u know it’s nearly impossible

U n I know d north love power n they can’t afford to lose it like that,they prefer to use 8 years n give it to a southerner they trust like we saw in the case of ekweme and obj

Northerners will prefer a Yoruba than an Igbo they can’t trust

And you think after voting for APC that have allowed bandits to kill over 500,000 of them in the last 7 years and reduce them to poverty, illiteracy capital of the world and they will still vote for APC again.

It's like you think rats live rent free in their heads Abi?

Hahahahaha delusion grandeur

Sergio103:


Sincerely....I read this thread critically like romance novel (at least was able to notice how high APC e-base have their hope).

All I can say is Good luck to them .

(I like as obi noticed that core north may not favour him and just focused on NC,SS and partly SW).

To those saying north will vote Tinubu over Atiku (I don't know wether to laugh or be mean)......Good luck!!!!!!!!!

They know the North will not vote for Tinubu, that's why they chose moslem VP in the first place.

nnewsnjobs:
Seun is not stable at all, today is Tinubu, tomorrow is Obi

But he forgot that the southern votes will be evenly distributed among the three candidates while the northern votes cannot be evenly distributed due to their voting pattern, although they will not be very high bloc votes this time around.

My prediction is in this order

Northern votes

Atiku--------------------------------45%
Tinubu-----------------------------30%
Obi----------------------------------15%
Kwankwaso and others -----10%


Southern votes
Tinubu-----------------------------35%
Obi----------------------------------32%
Atiku--------------------------------30%
Kwankwaso and others------3%

The winner is going to emerge with small margin. Atiku is going to be the winner.

2023 presidential election results between the winner and the runner up will look exactly like the last Osun governorship election result.

North will be tinubu 40%,atiku 35% kwankwaso 15% obi 10%

It was simply because he was contesting against Buhari. Now Buhari will not be in the ballot. An average northerner will first consider voting for a northerner before thinking of someone else.

LegendHero:


I used overrated for Atiku because of the Southern votes.

No region in Nigeria alone can produce the president. Not North, Not South.

Why I said Atiku is overrated is because in 2019, nearly half of his votes come from the South.

Within those half, most of his votes come from the SW + SS.

Now he is not sure of any region bloc in the South, not SE, not SS, and not SW.

What is his winning formulae?

ChiefS:
It was simply because he was contesting against Buhari. Now Buhari will not be in the ballot. An average northerner will first consider voting for a northerner before thinking of someone else.

So using your analogy, why can't a Yoruba man support a candidate simply because he is Yoruba?

Why then are people wailing on this thread?

Totilopussylick:


The up coming general election would be Obi Vs Bat

And Obi may likely kill "Bat"

sometimes I wonder they train u guys!! Everything is violence, insult, aggresiveness and chaos to you igbos. You all lack the ability to make a comment that isn't negative it must be violent and toxic. Which one is KILL now? And why do you have to make it look like a competition between tinubu and obi? Tinubu is way above obi in every parameters u wanna compare they are not mate

Fira09:
Obi is winning next year Election, Se.un opinion doesn't matter.

Obi/Atiku/Kwankwaso is very popular in the North than Tinubu/Shettima "combined", I reside in the North, so I can attest to this.

sweet dreams my bro

IamAtikulate:

Sabon Birni is a LGA in Sokoto.

Where in Sabon Birni is your family house and who is the Mai Garin?

lol he has answered all your questions and you are not satisfied do u want to know his bedroom too

Yes Tinubu will even defeat Atiku in Adamawa state. Campaign will soon start, just about 2 weeks from now

Bomboiy:


Tinubu will get more southern votes than Peter Obi?

Well you might be right, nothing is impossible in Nigeria election. You know SW has the highest number of vote between SS and SE.
But from what is on ground, like I said either Tinubu or Obi will win in the South with a very small margin.
Atiku will come third also the margin will still not be wide from the 2nd person.

garfield1:


North will be tinubu 40%,atiku 35% kwankwaso 15% obi 10%

I don't think so, except with heavy rigging.
Atiku will win the North, it might be Atiku 40%, Tinubu 35% as you rightly said. But Tinubu winning the North is not very likely.

nnewsnjobs:


I don't think so, except with heavy rigging.
Atiku will win the North, it might be Atiku 40%, Tinubu 35% as you rightly said. But Tinubu winning the North is not very likely.

Atiku is not popular plus pdp is weak.even if tinubu loses the north by 5%,he will still win if he wins sw massively.tinubu will win the nc

garfield1:


Atiku is not popular plus pdp is weak.even if tinubu loses the north by 5%,he will still win if he wins sw massively.tinubu will win the nc

Atiku may not be popular as Buhari, but he is more popular than Tinubu, remember he has been into politics since far back before 1992. Also remember that 5% margin on the North means a lot of vote considering their numbers of vote.

He is popular as well. The problem with PDP is mainly down the South, no serious problem in the Northern PDP.
Tinubu cannot win SW massively as you think, because most of the youth might vote Obi, while PDP having two state out of six with their grassroots network in the South West will also get good vote.
My prediction for SW
Tinubu 50%
Atiku 35%
Obi. 10%
Others. 5%

But SE and SS Tinubu is going to perform woefully especially SE, thereby spoiling the little success he recorded in SW

nnewsnjobs:


Atiku may not be popular as Buhari, but he is more popular than Tinubu, remember he has been into politics since far back before 1992. Also remember that 5% margin on the North means a lot of vote considering their numbers of vote.

He is popular as well. The problem with PDP is mainly down the South, no serious problem in the Northern PDP.
Tinubu cannot win SW massively as you think, because most of the youth might vote Obi, while PDP having two state out of six with their grassroots network in the South West will also get good vote.
My prediction for SW
Tinubu 50%
Atiku 35%
Obi. 10%
Others. 5%

But SE and SS Tinubu is going to perform woefully especially SE, thereby spoiling the little success he recorded in SW

Not true.in 2015 total votes in north was 20 mil,in 2019 it was 15 mil.in 2023,it will reduce further to 10 mil.5% can't be more than 500,000 k difference and I see tinubu winning the sw with nothing less than 2 mil margin.yorubas always give their son bloc votes.dont forget kwankwaso is also in the race and they love him more than atiku so votes will divide more.pdp is none existent in yobe,borno,zamfara etc...

Most of pdp fans in sw are now with obi so I see pdp and obi sharing from same votes there.that pdp controls two states means nothing.most yorubas will not vote IBO or fulani...
In the se/ss,tinubu will stay close to atiku.as Buhari got 25% in 2019,he too will get.with obi taking most votes there,gap between atiku and tinubu will be close.atiku will beat tinubu in Enugu and anambra while tinubu will win atiku in IMO and ebonyi.they will draw themselves in abia...atiku will win tinubu in akwa ibom and delta.Tinubu will draw him in rivers,bayelsa and win him in cross river and Edo...

garfield1:


Not true.in 2015 total votes in north was 20 mil,in 2019 it was 15 mil.in 2023,it will reduce further to 10 mil.5% can't be more than 500,000 k difference and I see tinubu winning the sw with nothing less than 2 mil margin.yorubas always give their son bloc votes.dont forget kwankwaso is also in the race and they love him more than atiku so votes will divide more.pdp is none existent in yobe,borno,zamfara etc...

Most of pdp fans in sw are now with obi so I see pdp and obi sharing from same votes there.that pdp controls two states means nothing.most yorubas will not vote IBO or fulani...
In the se/ss,tinubu will stay close to atiku.as Buhari got 25% in 2019,he too will get.with obi taking most votes there,gap between atiku and tinubu will be close.atiku will beat tinubu in Enugu and anambra while tinubu will win atiku in IMO and ebonyi.they will draw themselves in abia...atiku will win tinubu in akwa ibom and delta.Tinubu will draw him in rivers,bayelsa and win him in cross river and Edo...

I can see that you are adding some sort of sentiments to it.
You can see that even as I so much prefer that Obi should win, the truth you never see me projecting him to win because nothing on ground to that seems to me possible for Obi to win 2023.
But from what am seeing, Atiku stands a better chance even though it is painful that the North will continue after Buhari eight years.

For the SW, SS and SE
Tinubu get SW
Atiku get SS
Obi get SE
That is why I still insist that the Southern vote will be evenly shared among the three candidate.
The winner from the North will win 2023 election and Atiku is likely going to win from the North. Take it to the bank.

We will revisit this our discussion after election and see who was analysing better or close to the outcome of 2023 election.

Cheers!

OnionBandit:
You are one of the few reasonable Igbos I know, swears. I go like meet you one day. You and adadike

Adadike don disappear.
Who knows what evil minds like you have done.
E fit be this format you dey use lure them..
Skull mining reptile

ZombieTAMER:


Do you think Tinubu will win South West?..

by what margin?..

The seun guy even said he might be wrong, which is true, he definitely is dead wrong..

Tinubu cannot beat Atiku in the North, its practically impossible..Tinubu from Osun State. or another One.

nawa for una sha.it’s not tinubu beating atiku is apc govs delivering their damn states.

googlepikins:
Stupidity is when you think Northerners will vote for Tinubu over their own Atiku.

Madness of the highest order

if we Dey do brother it means we for vote Okowa.u have to ask yourself what has your brother done for u.it’s like u don’t know what 2023 is all about.if some ppl don’t see any reasonable person to vote for they will prefer to stay in their house.

LegendHero:


Bro Tinubu will win the SW with nothing less than 75-80% of the votes.

That 75% is the lowest amount he can get. The indices are already appearing, go into the heart of Yorubaland and take stock.

Aside Lagos where Peter Obi/Atiku will get some votes (which will be divided between them both), Peter obi wont see 30k votes in any SW states up to Kwara.

30-50k votes mean you count 50,000 heads that will go and thumbprint for him in Ekiti for example. I wish him best of luck if he thinks he can get that.

But I’m sure Atiku will perform better in the SW than Obi because there are PDP structure that will want to go to Abuja and they will want to mobilize for him but they will be too few to make much impact.

u r. Great politician

LegendHero:


If we are to go by previous election then Tinubu will win 90% of all SW states.

1979, 1983, 1993, 1999, and 2003; the Yoruba candidates all get nothing less than 90% on average in the West.

Times have changed, anyone thinking Atiku will get 70% in all core North state is just being clever by half.

Atiku is not Buhari. If it had been Kwakwanso that is on that PDP ticket, then I will fear him more than Atiku.

ppl don’t understand that in Adamawa 2 of out the 3 senators are apc.atiku lives in dubai Buhari lived in kaduna I don’t know why ppl are comparing atiku md Buhari.atiku is not a grounded politician his running mates have always helped him get votes.