2023 Election: How The Spread Requirements Favour Old Parties - Politics - Nairaland
Nairaland Forum › Nairaland General › Politics › 2023 Election: How The Spread Requirements Favour Old Parties (471 Views)
| 2023 Election: How The Spread Requirements Favour Old Parties by Nyamuri(op): 9:25pm On Sep 12, 2022 |
In Nigeria, according to the constitution, to be president you need 25% of the votes cast in 24 states. In a three or four-horse race the requirement becomes an obstacle. The northwest has 7 states. The northeast has 6 states. NW + NE = 13 and 36 -13 = 23 = impossible. If any presidential candidate fails to play strongly in the NE + NW zones. He can't be president. For Obi to take 25% in any state in the NE and NW. He must be a major contender in that state. Because what it would mean is that he would beat one or two of Atiku, Asiwaju, or kwankwaso. To be clear about four horse races. But because the four horses had their areas of complete dominance. Obi has a lot of work to do. Take Adamawa or Taraba where Obidients are hopeful. Once Atiku takes 50% in those states Obi's chances of securing 25% becomes almost impossible because the remaining 50 will be shared with Asiwaju and Kwankwaso Getting 25% of votes in any NE or NW state will be a major miracle for Obi. And assuming he pulls it off then he has to make sure. He makes 25% in all SW states including Osun, Ekiti, and Ogun. Obi's path to victory is narrower than the path to heaven. The spread requirement favors the two old parties. 25% in 24 states. Looks easy. But it's not in a three or four-horse race. In most states, only two candidates will have 25%. Rarely do three candidates score 25% in a state? So in Lagos, once one man nicks 55%, only one more can have 25%. Shocking right? In some states, only one candidate will have 25%. Take Ebonyi, if Peter gets 60% there. The PDP and APC could split the rest fairly equally and miss out. But take the NE and NW, without Buhari and with banditry. The APC and PDP look likely to pick 25% in all those states. If the APC and PDP pick 25% in NE and NW. Labour is out. The scenario in the NW will likely happen in Kogi, Kwara, Osun, Oyo, and Niger. Despite the Obidiency tsunami, Labour's path to 25% in 24 states is in the hands of the Almighty. http:///s6e2fa638220912en_ng?link=1&client=news |
| Re: 2023 Election: How The Spread Requirements Favour Old Parties by Salvador1: 9:32pm On Sep 12, 2022 |
Ok. but tinubu has Yoruba agenda which is evil. Just take a good look at APC youth leadership for tinubu. He's a bigot, ethnic and nepotic man
|
| Re: 2023 Election: How The Spread Requirements Favour Old Parties by Nyamuri(op): 9:33pm On Sep 12, 2022*. Modified: 10:09pm On Sep 12, 2022 |
Lol as in How? I have counted at least 10 northerners in that list.. and this is not produced by Tinubu Salvador1: 2 Likes |
| Re: 2023 Election: How The Spread Requirements Favour Old Parties by famouscargo4u: 9:39pm On Sep 12, 2022 |
Salvador1:This is just Digital team. 1 Like |
| Re: 2023 Election: How The Spread Requirements Favour Old Parties by Kyase(m): 9:51pm On Sep 12, 2022 |
Salvador1:El rufai son is there too Even my cousin brother is also listed there 1 Like |
Osun Election: How PDP, APC, Accord, Labor Party And SDP Fared • Osun Election: How ThisDay Newspaper Captioned Adeleke's Victory • Anambra Election: How Soludo Emerged Winner, Performance Of Other Candidates • 2 • 3 • 4
2023: Peter Obi And His Fascistic Obidients Will Be Disappointed, Says Fani-kayo • Tinubu To Be Unveiled As African Man Of Century • 2023 Elections: ‘obasanjo May Support Peter Obi For 2023’