₦airaland Forum

mrvitalis:
I remember predicting this thing ...years back .. infrastructure doesn't really kick start development it complement it this was what Peter Obi was arguing with osibanjo in 2019 now see the results

Speed rails are too expensive to run can never break even in a country as poor as we for now !!!!
What we needed was effective locomotive rail from Ibadan to the ports in Lagos to move containers

$150 million would have achieved that

Their is a rail from warri to lokoja ...it should have been locomotive from warri port to Abuja , with branch off to Onitsha and imo state
From onne to aba then to Enugu then to Jos and Maiduguri
All the Above can be achieved with 600 million dollars max if we have an effective government

1.5 billion dollars wasted I mean over 1 trillion Naira

If proforce and innoson where given 100 billion each to expand production they would have employed twice what this rail line would employ

1 billion to 100 cocoa clusters to build cocoa processing plants ban exportation of raw cocoa we only export cocoa powder and butter with would double value in a taxable business


This are the simple things Peter Obi is talking about ...we don't have much but we can effectively use what we have better

So today it's obvious Peter Obi was right osibanjo was wrong ....won't you still vote Peter Obi ?

What we have are very normal trains and not speed trains!! i hear the Lagos Ibadan does about 80km/hr. I can drive faster than that. What is speed about that when REAL speed trains in Europe are doing 300+km/h

ATLIEN2027:
So your suggestion is that African and other poor countries in general should not try to build rail systems simply because they are poor?
Ok, that's a new one...
So how will get out of poverty if they don't try to develop their infrastructures?

We should build much needed and priority infrastructure first ..

a $1.5bn double track rail line with ultra modern trains stations are not priority

what is priority is fixing power
building roads, refineries etc

if we spent that same figure to repair port harcourt refinery since..

we will not experience these levels of scarcity of fuel and devaluation of the naira..

priority first..

you don't buy flashy cars when you don't have 10% of the cost of maintaining them

Blue3k:
interesting even with Cargo traffic the rails are running at a loss. I'm not surprised about passengers rail considering they subsidize below market value like other things.

I'm not sure there is any material cargo on those trains yet.

But I always said that doing train service for passenger traffic rarely makes a profit anywhere in the world. The focus should have been on cargo all the while, but the government was marketing it as a passenger train - maybe to get votes.

The service can never do well if it remains in government hands. If it were in private hands it will either have a much smaller loss or make a profit. The marketing would be more, they would have leased commercial space at the station, reduced service to aggregate more customers into the available trains for more profit per train, offer value added services like internet at a small cost, reduced wasted manpower (why should tickets still be sold manually by 10 people, when you can do it over the internet like flights and have just 2 people at the station - saving salaries of 8 people), switch to electric or gas engines to save ridiculous cost of diesel and so on and so forth.

Point is that anything in government hands can never be run efficiently!! Now we have entered into another subsidy regime! We left kerosene and electricity and entered train.

That is what small business owners face under this hike in fuel and many are aground, meanwhile, your approach is meant to fail right from the beginning because a train ride is supposed to be cheaper but you turned it into luxury where ordinary people are not considered

gibsonwales:
These vagabonds can lie ehn... Believe them at your own peril. How can you establish a business that'll cost you N4m operating cost and you claim you earn just N1.7m, yet you keep it running

Cos its not set up as a business!!

Cognitivereason:
We should build much needed and priority infrastructure first ..

a $1.5bn double track rail line with ultra modern trains stations are not priority

what is priority is fixing power
building roads, refineries etc

if we spent that same figure to repair port harcourt refinery since..

we will not experience these levels of scarcity of fuel and devaluation of the naira..

priority first..

you don't buy flashy cars when you don't have 10% of the cost of maintaining them

I understand where you are coming from but the train system they are building is a basic necessity of modern economy.
First, you need train system to transport goods from one section to another. It's cheaper and faster.
You need train to transport large amount of people, cheaply and faster than road and air.
Just because you are trying to fix road and power does not mean that you can't fix rail system
They rail system is not the fast high speed in advance country, this is just the basic ones that every economy that wants to grow needs. It allows you to transport food from the North to the South, it allows you to transport goods from the south to the North.
In the US, the old rail system are still being used to transport grains from the mid west to the industrial West and Est coast of America. Train system systems have many advantages and can be done cheaply over the long run.
What we have is nothing close to fancy cars, these are old true, tested, cheap, and reliable means of transportation all over the world.
That doesn't stop you from developing your power sector or any other sector at the same time.

KayB:
That is what small business owners face under this hike in fuel and many are aground, meanwhile, your approach is meant to fail right from the beginning because a train ride is supposed to be cheaper but you turned it into luxury where ordinary people are not considered

Not sure where we all get this thing that train is cheaper! How cheap again if Lagos to Ibadan is N2500!!?

Just last week I took a train from London to Bournemouth and back and it cost me GBP70!

The problem is not the cost of the service, but rather that incomes in Nigeria are too low for the vast majority. Having said that I think there are enough people who can afford N5k return trip to Ibadan. After all, even bus from Ojota is like N2k and its always full. We just haven't been conditioned to take trains yet. If petrol becomes N600, maybe that will get people to divert to the train.

What stops these mumu people from operating Ijoko to Apapa, Ebute metta on hourly trip @1'000.

Cognitivereason:
it will still not profit in this current realities..

read to understand ..

the problem is not passengers or lack of patronage

the issue is the cost of running it is higher

if if it cost N1000 to transport 10 passenger who will pay N10 naira each(N100)

it means when you double the no. of passengers ..the cost of running the transport service is increases to N2000 and only N200 will be made..


use your head..

this is why NRC is reducing the number of trips to reduce losses

when you

You have no economic sense.
High Demand lowers Cost of a Service.
That's why it costs less to fly from Europe to America than from Europe to Africa.
The largest business route in Nigeria is Lagos-Benin-Onitsha-PH/Calabar route.
High patronage lowers price, and operational costs.
That's why those luxury buses that ply the above route have survived more than the luxury buses that ply the SW-North route.

ATLIEN2027:
Mos of the people commenting here are very ignorant of world realities.
The fact is that most public transportation around the world don't make anything close to their operations cost not to talk of profit.
Especially a new rail system that's just getting off the ground cannot break even anytime soon. Most private businesses don't even break even in the beginning not to talk of a public business. Do you guys even think that most buses and train systems in Europe and the US are breaking even or even making any money? Most will go out of business without govt subsidies and allocations.
Couple this world reality with the Nigerian factor of bribe and corruption. Everyone working at the train station is already thinking of how to pocket the ticket fee instead of giving it to the govt.
Employ some of these youths on NL and their number goal is to get rich from one scam or the other at the train stations....

“ The fact is that most public transportation around the world don't make anything close to their operations cost not to talk of profit”. Who says?

onuman:
You have no economic sense.
High Demand lowers Cost of a Service.
That's why it costs less to fly from Europe to America than from Europe to Africa.
The largest business route in Nigeria is Lagos-Benin-Onitsha-PH/Calabar route.
High patronage lowers price, and operational costs.
That's why those luxury buses that ply the above route have survived more than the luxury buses that ply the SW-North route.

High demand without competition increases cost. What reduces cost is competition, not demand. Ideally with high demand, all other things constant prices go up not down. Why does Uber do surge pricing when demand is high?


europe to America flight is cheap because competition is high. Almost every country in Europe has its own airline. This past summer with lots of Americians and europeans wanting to travel for the first time since covid, air ticket prices went up because of high demand and limited capacity.

Go and relearn your economics.

When demand for Lagos Onitsha bus or flight is high at Xmas, do prices go up or down??

ATLIEN2027:
Mos of the people commenting here are very ignorant of world realities.
The fact is that most public transportation around the world don't make anything close to their operations cost not to talk of profit.
Especially a new rail system that's just getting off the ground cannot break even anytime soon. Most private businesses don't even break even in the beginning not to talk of a public business. Do you guys even think that most buses and train systems in Europe and the US are breaking even or even making any money? Most will go out of business without govt subsidies and allocations.
Couple this world reality with the Nigerian factor of bribe and corruption. Everyone working at the train station is already thinking of how to pocket the ticket fee instead of giving it to the govt.
Employ some of these youths on NL and their number goal is to get rich from one scam or the other at the train stations....

So you build standard gauge rail lines with the hope of using income from sale of crude oil and gas deposits in the Niger Delta region to sustain the rail business, which your principals refused to build in the Niger Delta region, except the short and misleading Itakpe-Warri route?
Truth is that rail lines and other public transport businesses in Europe and America make profits, because they first establish the transport service in areas of highest demand, and as profit pours in, they use the profits to establish or even sustain the transport service in less busy areas.
But Nigeria would start with first providing services in areas of lesser demand, but ignores the areas of high demand, because of ethno-religious bigotry.

Cantonese:
“ The fact is that most public transportation around the world don't make anything close to their operations cost not to talk of profit”. Who says?

Do your research , Google is your friend.

https://www.timeout.com/london/blog/most-googled-does-london-underground-make-a-profit-052617#:~:text=Mark%20Evers%2C%20director%20of%20customer,and%20improving%20transport%20in%20London.


Even the world renowned London Train system that has been around for ages still not making profit.

Even Amtrak in the US is heavily subsidies by the US govt. States and other agencies.

"State and Federal Subsidies
Amtrak receives funding from 20 state agencies and 17 states to support its short-distance lines (all except the NEC).

Forty-seven percent of all Amtrak trips in 2020 took place on state-funded lines. In total, Amtrak received $342 million in state subsidies in 2020, which amounts to 14% of its total revenue.


Furthermore, Amtrak received roughly $2.0 billion in federal grants in 2020. In its annual report, however, the company does not consider these subsidies revenue. These funds are part of the $8.1 billion sum that the Fixing America's Surface Transportation (FAST) Act of 2015 allocated for Amtrak to use between 2016 and 2020."

Without govt subsidies most public transportation around the world will simply go out of business.

onuman:
You have no economic sense.
High Demand lowers Cost of a Service.
That's why it costs less to fly from Europe to America than from Europe to Africa.
The largest business route in Nigeria is Lagos-Benin-Onitsha-PH/Calabar route.
High patronage lowers price, and operational costs.
That's why those luxury buses that ply the above route have survived more than the luxury buses that ply the SW-North route.

no sane person sound in economics will read the jargons you wrote and think you mentally sound

who told you high patronage reduces operational cost..

Oga tell me any business that high patronage reduces operational costs..

I clearly stated that patronage isn't the problem. population and the goods to be transported isn't the problem..

the problem is that actual amount that needs to be charged by NRC to effectively run the facility isn't allowed..

overloading the trains will do very little at addressing it

all of the things you stated will make sense if the problems were patronage

how will building the rails at onitsha reduce the cost of diesel which is around N800 ..diesel prices are primarily the cost of operation

Honestly this country is cursed

onuman:
So you build standard gauge rail lines with the hope of using income from sale of crude oil and gas deposits in the Niger Delta region to sustain the rail business, which your principals refused to build in the Niger Delta region, except the short and misleading Itakpe-Warri route?
Truth is that rail lines and other public transport businesses in Europe and America make profits, because they first establish the transport service in areas of highest demand, and as profit pours in, they use the profits to establish or even sustain the transport service in less busy areas.
But Nigeria would start with first providing services in areas of lesser demand, but ignores the areas of high demand, because of ethno-religious bigotry.

Stop posting misinformation.

Trains int the US and Europe DO NOT MAKE PROFIT.
DO your research before posting information

Amtrack in the US is subsidies by the FED, States and other agencies

State and Federal Subsidies
Amtrak receives funding from 20 state agencies and 17 states to support its short-distance lines (all except the NEC).

Forty-seven percent of all Amtrak trips in 2020 took place on state-funded lines. In total, Amtrak received $342 million in state subsidies in 2020, which amounts to 14% of its total revenue.

Furthermore, Amtrak received roughly $2.0 billion in federal grants in 2020. In its annual report, however, the company does not consider these subsidies revenue. These funds are part of the $8.1 billion sum that the Fixing America's Surface Transportation (FAST) Act of 2015 allocated for Amtrak to use between 2016 and 2020.

The London train system has been around for ages and still not making any profit.

https://www.timeout.com/london/blog/most-googled-does-london-underground-make-a-profit-052617#:~:text=Mark%20Evers%2C%20director%20of%20customer

What makes you automatically thinks that only money from Delta will be used? Is Delta not part of Nigeria, where they not enjoying the Nigerian wealth prior to discovery of oil? If oil becomes irrelevant today, won't they still be part of Nigeria?
I see your problem is not the economics of it but the tribal slant of it.

BYE

mrvitalis:
I remember predicting this thing ...years back .. infrastructure doesn't really kick start development it complement it this was what Peter Obi was arguing with osibanjo in 2019 now see the results

Speed rails are too expensive to run can never break even in a country as poor as we for now !!!!
What we needed was effective locomotive rail from Ibadan to the ports in Lagos to move containers

$150 million would have achieved that

Their is a rail from warri to lokoja ...it should have been locomotive from warri port to Abuja , with branch off to Onitsha and imo state
From onne to aba then to Enugu then to Jos and Maiduguri
All the Above can be achieved with 600 million dollars max if we have an effective government

1.5 billion dollars wasted I mean over 1 trillion Naira

If proforce and innoson where given 100 billion each to expand production they would have employed twice what this rail line would employ

1 billion to 100 cocoa clusters to build cocoa processing plants ban exportation of raw cocoa we only export cocoa powder and butter with would double value in a taxable business


This are the simple things Peter Obi is talking about ...we don't have much but we can effectively use what we have better

So today it's obvious Peter Obi was right osibanjo was wrong ....won't you still vote Peter Obi ?

Kangaroo analysis
Giant of Africa not ripe for speed rail in 2022? Wonderful

Buhari has failed again

MasterJayJay:
Source> https://saharareporters.com/2022/09/18/lagos-ibadan-train-nigerian-railway-spends-about-n4-million-diesel-alone-daily-makes-n17

ATLIEN2027:
I understand where you are coming from but the train system they are building is a basic necessity of modern economy.
First, you need train system to transport goods from one section to another. It's cheaper and faster.
You need train to transport large amount of people, cheaply and faster than road and air.
Just because you are trying to fix road and power does not mean that you can't fix rail system
They rail system is not the fast high speed in advance country, this is just the basic ones that every economy that wants to grow needs. It allows you to transport food from the North to the South, it allows you to transport goods from the south to the North.
In the US, the old rail system are still being used to transport grains from the mid west to the industrial West and Est coast of America. Train system systems have many advantages and can be done cheaply over the long run.
What we have is nothing close to fancy cars, these are old true, tested, cheap, and reliable means of transportation all over the world.
That doesn't stop you from developing your power sector or any other sector at the same time.

no body said it wasn't basic necessity

but the kind of rails they built wasn't needed

the standard guage they built has a maximum speed of 150km/hr but the trains run at 60km/hr

wouldn't it have made sense to just rehabilitate the narrow guage whose maximum speed is around 80km/hr at a much cheaper cost..the same aim of moving goods and services easier will be met.

to worsen it they built a double track rail line (156km each) for $1.5bn and the utilization is less than 20%
wouldn't it have been better to build a single track 712km to cover a longer distance at the same cost..that way it will be lagos to let say ilorin..meaning goods will go longer routes and more economic impacts at the same cost..

rail transport is only cheaper if they are built to match our needs and not built as white elephant projects..


we should never had built a double track..and the kind of luxury stations were no needed as well

nkemoma:
There was a country....

Zoogeria... Nothing good can come out of bad leaders

And the followers don't know what they want either. They spend all their energy fighting each other.

Cognitivereason:
no sane person sound in economics will read the jargons you wrote and think you mentally sound

who told you high patronage reduces operational cost..

Oga tell me any business that high patronage reduces operational costs..

I clearly stated that patronage isn't the problem. population and the goods to be transported isn't the problem..

the problem is that actual amount that needs to be charged by NRC to effectively run the facility isn't allowed..

overloading the trains will do very little at addressing it

all of the things you stated will make sense if the problems were patronage

how will building the rails at onitsha reduce the cost of diesel which is around N800 ..diesel prices are primarily the cost of operation

In bold.
First, I am happy you called me oga, but why did you at the same time query your oga's mental health?
Now listen to Economics 101:

if rail service provider A uses 500 liters of diesel to transport 300 available passengers in a train which has a capacity of 600 passengers, because no more passengers were available to fill up the remaining 300 seats;
but a similar rail service provider B uses 500 litres of diesel to transport full capacity 600 passengers to equidistant to A,
it's obvious that service provider B shall get richer and be self-sustaining more than service provider A.
Furthermore, if service provider B's services are usually rushed, and in a day, B runs the distance with full passenger capacity many times, more than Service provider A, it's obvious that service provider B is by far ahead of service provider A.
Don't clutch tight on Iberiberism to insult who you referred to as oga.

Corruption everywhere! A whole NRC that should be buying diesel in tanker loads at reseller prices is now buying even at more expensive price than pump prices. If you look well, the supplier is just a front for one or more of the directors milking away the system.

DOnlooker:
Corruption everywhere! A whole NRC that should be buying diesel in tanker loads at reseller prices is now buying even at more expensive price than pump prices. If you look well, the supplier is just a front for one or more of the directors milking away the system.

....and Nigeria is known by rest of the world as one of the first ten oil producing countries.
Yet Diesel is hard to come by in Nigeria.

One remembers when Obasanjo was president. One remembers the communique issued by Obassnjo's Southern Political Leaders meeting headed by Tony Anenih in Enugu.
The Communique read like: the problems of Nigeria are because Nigeria has been governed for too long by people who live far away from the location of the resources that sustain Nigeria.

Wrong policy decision makers largely influenced by ethnic or religious bigotry.

MonsieurX:
Before you guys type mumbo-jumbo, try to reason for yourselves for once. That rail project is an outdated and overdue infrastructure, something you can never find anymore in developed countries.

The major reason why they seem to be running at a loss is low patronage and the current price of diesel, nothing else.

There is no country in the world where government-owned transport infrastructure is seen as strictly for-profit, it's meant to ease the lives of citizens and facilitate movement of goods and services in the country, the ripple effects are then a good business/trading ecosystem and creation of jobs which would lead to more taxes for the government.

That explanation you gave above is too myopic and limited in scope.

Perhaps you felt you were making good points typing those but the person you were quoting actually made more sense than you did.

If you say that the train is to make life easier for people, what category of people can afford to board it? And on the other hand, which government-run enterprise in Nigeria has ever been sustainable including the cash cow NNPC?

onuman:
In bold.
First, I am happy you called me oga, but why did you at the same time query your oga's mental health?
Now listen to Economics 101:

if rail service provider A uses 500 liters of diesel to transport 300 available passengers in a train which has a capacity of 600 passengers, because no more passengers were available to fill up the remaining 300 seats;
but a similar rail service provider B uses 500 litres of diesel to transport full capacity 600 passengers to equidistant to A,
it's obvious that service provider B shall get richer and be self-sustaining more than service provider A.
Furthermore, if service provider B's services are usually rushed, and in a day, B runs the distance with full passenger capacity many times, more than Service provider A, it's obvious that service provider B is by far ahead of service provider A.
Don't clutch tight on Iberiberism to insult who you referred to as oga.

This is the flaw in your economics 101
First of all.. all the trains are filled to capacity.
I reiterated the fact that passengers not filling the train isn't the problem otherwise your analysis would have made sense..
the passengers are there. the issue is the cost of running it doesn't match what the passengers are paying

if rail service provider A uses 500 litres of diesel at a cost of N1 million to transport full capacity 600 passengers who paid a total N200,000
it means the rail service provider makes a loss of N800,000..i.e 80% loss

if the service provider is rushed and is able to run the trip as much as 10 times a day at full capacity..the rail service provide will need 10x 500litres of diesel at a cost of N10 million.. which will transport 10x 600 passengers (6000 passenger total) who will at the end of the day end up paying 10x N200,000 (N2 million). and a loss of N8 million will be made..shikina..which ofcourse is still 80% loss.

Oga this is basic quantitative reasoning..

ATLIEN2027:
Stop posting misinformation.

Trains int the US and Europe DO NOT MAKE PROFIT.
DO your research before posting information

Amtrack in the US is subsidies by the FED, States and other agencies

State and Federal Subsidies
Amtrak receives funding from 20 state agencies and 17 states to support its short-distance lines (all except the NEC).

Forty-seven percent of all Amtrak trips in 2020 took place on state-funded lines. In total, Amtrak received $342 million in state subsidies in 2020, which amounts to 14% of its total revenue.

Furthermore, Amtrak received roughly $2.0 billion in federal grants in 2020. In its annual report, however, the company does not consider these subsidies revenue. These funds are part of the $8.1 billion sum that the Fixing America's Surface Transportation (FAST) Act of 2015 allocated for Amtrak to use between 2016 and 2020.

The London train system has been around for ages and still not making any profit.

https://www.timeout.com/london/blog/most-googled-does-london-underground-make-a-profit-052617#:~:text=Mark%20Evers%2C%20director%20of%20customer

What makes you automatically thinks that only money from Delta will be used? Is Delta not part of Nigeria, where they not enjoying the Nigerian wealth prior to discovery of oil? If oil becomes irrelevant today, won't they still be part of Nigeria?
I see your problem is not the economics of it but the tribal slant of it.

BYE

You people's cup are getting filled.
Do US and UK sideline a part of their countries when they provide development infrastructures; the way Nigeria's government sidelined the east and the Niger Delta region in providing standard gauge rail lines?
Oil stands for a large percentage of Nigeria's income, no matter the misinformation from your lot.
Nigeria's ethno-religious bigoted leaders pick crude oil and gas money from the Niger Delta but refuse to build development infrastructures, including standard gauge rail lines in the east and most of the Delta region, but built the standard gauge rail lines in the arid north that contributes nothing to the government purse; even built in Niger Republic. You come here to spew garbage. Good as you said you Shorrup.

ATLIEN2027:
So your suggestion is that African and other poor countries in general should not try to build rail systems simply because they are poor?
Ok, that's a new one...
So how will get out of poverty if they don't try to develop their infrastructures?

Yes, do not build rails. If you mention the best things African countries could do with their money, rails would not be among the first 100.
Imagine if we had built our refineries instead or built our gas infrastructure or built our steel plant, I can go on and on. If we have invested in the right infrastructure, by now, we would not be losing money rather we would be increasing our foreign reserve.
The problem we have is the wrong people in government.
Just so you know, the US railway system is privately owned. If our government had made it easier to do business in Nigeria, private businesses would be rushing to build our rail system.
Finally, mention one country that got out of poverty because their government kept borrowing money to build infrastructure.
Now let me give you a list of countries that fell into economic trouble because their governments borrowed to build infrastructure.
Argentina
Brazil
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Djibouti
Kyrgyzstan
Laos
Montenegro
Spain
Italy
Greece

Cantonese:
Exactly. The Ibadan trains originally were thought to run at approximately 150 km/ph. However they presently run at 60km/ph. The ones by Lagos state government should run at 335km/ph. They are way faster and should be costlier.

What should run at 335k/h? Are you having a laugh?
Where have you seen intra city run at that speed? Even the latest UK line, the Elizabeth line does not move half that speed. The most you will get from the Lagos metro is 60 to 80 top speed. Don't forget it is even powered with diesel and hence does not have the acceleration of electric.

Nosayer:
Perhaps you felt you were making good points typing those but the person you were quoting actually made more sense than you did.

If you say that the train is to make life easier for people, what category of people can afford to board it? And on the other hand, which government-run enterprise in Nigeria has ever been sustainable including the cash cow NNPC?

My points won't make sense to you cos I am not Peter Obi and those he feeds with both authentic and inaccurate opinions...

And it's government-owned transport infrastructure, not enterprise, learn to read Sabinus.

They need to Start Hauling Cargo from Lagos Port

Cargo Transport is the Railway Cash Cow

Germi9:
Why wont they run at loss when they politicized the whole thing…why not link the East to the west i stead they are busy connecting ibadan lagos kaduna kanu abuja
Useless people

Exactly.
The busiest internal corridor in this country is Lagos to Benin to Onitsha, yet it doesn't have a rail.
The busiest International corridor is Lagos to Benin republic but na Niger Republic that doesn't have internal railway them face their railway.
Tell me why it won't be running at a loss

CaptainAyub:
Exactly.
The busiest internal corridor in this country is Lagos to Benin to Onitsha, yet it doesn't have a rail.
The busiest International corridor is Lagos to Benin republic but na Niger Republic that doesn't have internal railway them face their railway.
Tell me why it won't be running at a loss

Nepotism wan just finish dem …so clueless Mofos