₦airaland Forum

general111:
you are doing all these political arithmetic because he won...
Peter obi will next year, after which you will start another political arithmetic, explaining why he wins.

you probably do not understand Nigerians voting pattern that is why you believed obi will win.
Let me state emphatically that obi don't have the number to winning this coming election.
Obi Is a spoiler for Atiku.

If I may ask, which states obi's votes will come from?
No insult please, I just want us to carry out objective analysis.

lhordspy:
Very true... It is more like Obi and Atiku fighting for their already 2019 joint votes. Tinubu is not affected a bit.

The number of new votes or should i say voters that is adding to the 2019 own .. Is just 1m+ newly registered voters, after INEC screened the double registration out.

Even if the 1m+ people are to vote for obi, which is practically impossible, add it to the number of Atiku/obi votes in 2019(which is impossible because Atiku already have the northern voters in his bag) ... It wont be enough to even win an election.

Incase you dont understand what am trying to say. Even if you join Obi votes presently + Atiku's vote + the 1m newly registered voters, it isnt still enough to defeat a certain Tinubu APC if going by the Last general election.

Why am refferring to the last general elections is because nothing changes, nothing have change. Except the rallies and supposedly '2million' match which we witness almost every seconds.

The same people engaging in rallies or supporting obi, never voted for APC 2019.

The same set of people feeling marginalised on religious bases, because of the muslim-muslim ticket will never vote for APC in 2019 too.

The same christian bodies antagonising muslim muslim ticket, Never supported Buhari 2019 also.

The same Afenifere, never supported APC 2019

The same South East, South south.. Are traditionally PDP voters, their votes never changes the outcome of 2019.

Infact some of the muslims voted Atiku/obi 2019, but this time arround with the present political situation where the campaign as been turned into religious one, religous sentiments have found it way in Nigeria politics now, those votes are going to APC this time.

Undecided voters in 2019 like me, who voted for Atiku/obi will never ever vote for any of them this time, why? Because of the aggressive way of the obidients followers. I know so many of us here that are on that line or should i say clinging to that excuse.

The south-west voted overwhelming for Atiku/obi 2019, not because of the love for Atiku or Obi but because we felt the pain of the failed First tenure of buhari then.. Even lagos was almost lost by APC even with Tinubu.
I feel my analysis is right here because those states lost by APC 2019 in southwest, was won by same APC governors during the governorship election except Oyo state which was narrowly lost.
Now, coming to 2023, i feels a tribal sentiment will play major role here, APC will win massively in south west. But what if APC lost, they lost Overall in the southwest in 2019 in the presidential election. It still never changes anything. APC STILL WON THE ELECTION. BUHARI WON.

So when you take all this into consideration, analyse it without religious sentiment or hatred for any candidate. IT DOESN'T CHANGES ANYTHING. Infact the antagonism. of the Buhari candidature we witness in 2019, was far far more than the Tinubu candidature upset we are witness now. Because the anger of Buhari's first tenure which was marred by gross incompetency, insecurities upset alot of people and it cut across all regions. Be it yoruba, hausa,igbo, egede, idoma, ebira... Just name it.. People were angry with his first tenure.
And after the election? I think we all know what happened - Buhari won again.

Some people are saying, the youth, the youth!. Do they PVc's? Alright fine, someone also came out to say they registered because of Obi this year.
Then they didnt turn out massively like we are been deceivedto believe, the number of newly registered voters justify my point. Just 1m+ (which am sure the youth cant have more than 50% of 1m+)

So in my opinion, it takes more more than this childish rallies, photoshopping Tinubu's picture in an irritating manner, or throwing of insult and jabs. We, when i mean we, i mean i included engage in all this for Atiku/obi 2019, Buhari still won.


By simple logic and permutation and the little knowledge i have about politics, TINUBU may not win next year general election, but APC WILL DEFINITELY WIN. And it will be by landslide JUST LIKE 2019.
BECAUSE NOTHING HAS CHANGED EXCEPT THAT OBI AND ATIKU ARE NOW SHARING THEIR VOTES.

Nonsense! If Atiku cannot secure his northern votes and depending on Obi’s Southern block to win then he should go and rest and not deserving of the contest.

Anyway in reality, Kwankwaso, Tinubu and Atiku will fight for and share the NE and NW votes, while Obi will get a good share of the SW and NC votes while securing SS and SE.

In all these permutations, your judgement is as good as mine. Obi is ahead of the other candidates while Tinubu’s chances are slim given that Atiku and Kwankwaso are chipping away his Northern votes.

That’s why there is so much panic in their camps. It appears all the attacks from APC and PDP are directed towards Obi.

In any case, let the best man win and undoubtedly today, Obi is by miles the best man for the job.

NigeriaIsGreat:
Lol

The joke is on you bro

Buhari had structures in place, he is not new to the system, 2015 was his 4th attempt, more structures was built just to defeat the sitting president

Obi is the opposite of him

...
And peter obi is new to nigerian politics abi?..
What were the structures buhari had that obi does not have now?..

RomanGreen:
You must really think Nigerians are daft and can't make decisions for themselves. Don't worry the suffering your Buhari inflicted on then has reset their brains back to default

Lol

Same Nigerians voted for APC and PDP in Ekiti and Osun State governorship election

I don't need to say it will shock you because you already know APC will win

I will only tell you to learn how to manage your expectations

Peterobiisathie:
https://mobile.twitter.com/renoomokri/status/1576254573572153344

Reno makes no sense here.

Paranoid and Igbophobia are now hitting harder on Reno.

Mr Reno keeps flip flopping. One I will focus on selling my candidate and not attack Obidients, the next minute he contradicts himself. Na ea oo

Peterobiisathie:
https://mobile.twitter.com/renoomokri/status/1576254573572153344

NaijaRoyalty:
On whose side is Reno omokri sef

Why is the Obidient nationwide massive movements making him lose sleep

PDP/Atiku’s side. He is pained that the votes that would normally accrue to PDP/Atiku are going to PO.

general111:
...
And peter obi is new to nigerian politics abi?..
What were the structures buhari had that obi does not have now?..

use Your tongue to count your teeth

Obi-Datti is a moving train that left the park a long time ago and a million of Reno cannot stop the train.

general111:
I remember vividly that this was how buhari started.
It started out as a social media thing, where people began to support buhari and throw shades at jonathan..
Who would have thought that buhari will defeat a sitting president in nigeria..
Looking at the way things are going now, peter Obi will be announced as president before 8am the next day....
To ignore peter obi is foolishness

Loo

NigeriaIsGreat:
Lol

Same Nigerians voted for APC and PDP in Ekiti and Osun State governorship election

I don't need to say it will shock you because you already know APC will win

I will only tell you to learn how to manage your expectations

APC loudmouth, APC presidential candidate is not even in the race.
Or do you want to package a dying man for president of Nigeria because of your ethno-religious bigotry?

general111:
I remember vividly that this was how buhari started.
It started out as a social media thing, where people began to support buhari and throw shades at jonathan..
Who would have thought that buhari will defeat a sitting president in nigeria..
Looking at the way things are going now, peter Obi will be announced as president before 8am the next day....
To ignore peter obi is foolishness

Let me remind you that part you decided not to remember ... despite people chanting sai baba and the mantra was "change"

Political gladiators had to merge to displace Pdp, AC+CPC+ NPDP became ApC and it didnt end there APC matched Pdp in spending, structure and every antics required to win,

What technical moves as LP made as a party beyond youths catching cruise on street rally across state, most chanting Obi now were Atikulate 2019, Winning an Election in Nigeria goes beyond youths dancing on streets, hookup and selfies for the gram.
The one n only big name in LP is just Peter obi, compared to APC of 2015 that had saraki, tambuwal, amaechi, Tinubu & co.
enough said can't wait to see the magic LP wan do cum 2023.

Foreseer:
See this leech of a shoe brush talking, self-exiled idiiioot wey mumu pass festus keyamo

You go just kill yourself for nothing on top Reno wey no send una

gabbasin:
you don't need 50% to win the presidential election, all what the winner needs to get is the highest votes and 25% of the votes in at least 24 states. Lobatan

Well, maybe you don't understand wat percentage u need to score before a runoff is likely declared. I suggest u listen to Festus Okoye. Spokesperson of INEC.

Abdul4trust1:
you probably do not understand Nigerians voting pattern that is why you believed obi will win.
Let me state emphatically that obi don't have the number to winning this coming election.
Obi Is a spoiler for Atiku.

If I may ask, which states obi's votes will come from?
No insult please, I just want us to carry out objective analysis.

..
Nice...
I honestly think peter obi has already captured all the southern states, including south west, anf also the middle belt region...
So he needs at 25% votes from the northern states to become president..
What do you think?

This man

NigeriaIsGreat:
use Your tongue to count your teeth

use you eyes to see the crowd that rallied around him today

reddingtonblack:
Let me remind you that part you decided not to remember ... despite people chanting sai baba and the mantra was "change"

Political gladiators had to merge to displace Pdp, AC+CPC+ NPDP became ApC and it didnt end there APC matched Pdp in spending, structure and every antics required to win,

What technical moves as LP made as a party beyond youths catching on street rally across state, most chanting Obi now were Atikulate 2019, Winning an Election in Nigeria goes beyond youths dancing on streets, hookup and selfies for the gram.
The one n only big name in LP is just Peter obi, compared to APC of 2015 that had saraki, tambuwal, amaechi, Tinubu & co.
enough said can't wait to see the magic LP wan do cum 2023.

Lol

Most of them will end up to claim the election was rigged

reddingtonblack:
Let me remind you that part you decided not to remember ... despite people chanting sai baba and the mantra was "change"

Political gladiators had to merge to displace Pdp, AC+CPC+ NPDP became ApC and it didnt end there APC matched Pdp in spending, structure and every antics required to win,

What technical moves as LP made as a party beyond youths catching on street rally across state, most chanting Obi now were Atikulate 2019, Winning an Election in Nigeria goes beyond youths dancing on streets, hookup and selfies for the gram.
The one n only big name in LP is just Peter obi, compared to APC of 2015 that had saraki, tambuwal, amaechi, Tinubu & co.
enough said can't wait to see the magic LP wan do cum 2023.

Those structures don’t mean much when the votes count. The era of taking the ballot box to a party chieftain’s house to thumb print is gone and it’s now one man one vote. So the only structure that counts is the people structure which belongs to Obi.

Peterobiisathie:
https://mobile.twitter.com/renoomokri/status/1576254573572153344

If Atiku wining next election or losing it depends on Peter Obi he should better step down or lose.

[quote author=Qtrpst4 post=117181575][/quote]I also have the same opinion with you. The emergence of Obi will affect the votes of PDP in SE&SS which have been the strongholds of PDP in the previous elections and I don't see PDP claiming upto %20 of votes in the SW. Even from the look of things, Obi will have more votes than Atiku in SW. But I won't be surprised if Atiku gets about %70 of the Northern votes because Northerners have a way of favouring their own, a clear example is what happened during the PDP primary, when Tambuwal stepped down for Atiku at the dieing minutes.

chinchum:
BAT needs simple majority, he does not need 50%, he will get less than 50%, i predict about 38%. To avoid a runoff, he needs at least 25 % in fct and a minimum of 24 states, my little worry, although he has a good chance of achieving that. He may lose in a runoff.

No candidate can get 50% of vote in dis election. So it goes for TRS to determine the winner. But i see BAT and ATIKU getting the needed 25% in 24 states. Let the best man win.

onuman:
APC loudmouth, APC presidential candidate is not even in the race.
Or do you want to package a dying man for president of Nigeria because of your ethno-religious bigotry?

call it whatever you like bro. People voted APC and even PDP in the just concluded ekiti and Osun State governorship election


Stop deceiving yourself that Nigerians won't vote APC

Lol

You never know wotsup

What sort of useless analysis is this? are you that daft or something? do you really think people will vote for APC again with the recent happenings?

lhordspy:
Very true... It is more like Obi and Atiku fighting for their already 2019 joint votes. Tinubu is not affected a bit.

The number of new votes or should i say voters that is adding to the 2019 own .. Is just 1m+ newly registered voters, after INEC screened the double registration out.

Even if the 1m+ people are to vote for obi, which is practically impossible, add it to the number of Atiku/obi votes in 2019(which is impossible because Atiku already have the northern voters in his bag) ... It wont be enough to even win an election.

Incase you dont understand what am trying to say. Even if you join Obi votes presently + Atiku's vote + the 1m newly registered voters, it isnt still enough to defeat a certain Tinubu APC if going by the Last general election.

Why am refferring to the last general elections is because nothing changes, nothing have change. Except the rallies and supposedly '2million' match which we witness almost every seconds.

The same people engaging in rallies or supporting obi, never voted for APC 2019.

The same set of people feeling marginalised on religious bases, because of the muslim-muslim ticket will never vote for APC in 2019 too.

The same christian bodies antagonising muslim muslim ticket, Never supported Buhari 2019 also.

The same Afenifere, never supported APC 2019

The same South East, South south.. Are traditionally PDP voters, their votes never changes the outcome of 2019.

Infact some of the muslims voted Atiku/obi 2019, but this time arround with the present political situation where the campaign as been turned into religious one, religous sentiments have found it way in Nigeria politics now, those votes are going to APC this time.

Undecided voters in 2019 like me, who voted for Atiku/obi will never ever vote for any of them this time, why? Because of the aggressive way of the obidients followers. I know so many of us here that are on that line or should i say clinging to that excuse.

The south-west voted overwhelming for Atiku/obi 2019, not because of the love for Atiku or Obi but because we felt the pain of the failed First tenure of buhari then.. Even lagos was almost lost by APC even with Tinubu.
I feel my analysis is right here because those states lost by APC 2019 in southwest, was won by same APC governors during the governorship election except Oyo state which was narrowly lost.
Now, coming to 2023, i feels a tribal sentiment will play major role here, APC will win massively in south west. But what if APC lost, they lost Overall in the southwest in 2019 in the presidential election. It still never changes anything. APC STILL WON THE ELECTION. BUHARI WON.

So when you take all this into consideration, analyse it without religious sentiment or hatred for any candidate. IT DOESN'T CHANGES ANYTHING. Infact the antagonism. of the Buhari candidature we witness in 2019, was far far more than the Tinubu candidature upset we are witness now. Because the anger of Buhari's first tenure which was marred by gross incompetency, insecurities upset alot of people and it cut across all regions. Be it yoruba, hausa,igbo, egede, idoma, ebira... Just name it.. People were angry with his first tenure.
And after the election? I think we all know what happened - Buhari won again.

Some people are saying, the youth, the youth!. Do they PVc's? Alright fine, someone also came out to say they registered because of Obi this year.
Then they didnt turn out massively like we are been deceivedto believe, the number of newly registered voters justify my point. Just 1m+ (which am sure the youth cant have more than 50% of 1m+)

So in my opinion, it takes more more than this childish rallies, photoshopping Tinubu's picture in an irritating manner, or throwing of insult and jabs. We, when i mean we, i mean i included engage in all this for Atiku/obi 2019, Buhari still won.


By simple logic and permutation and the little knowledge i have about politics, TINUBU may not win next year general election, but APC WILL DEFINITELY WIN. And it will be by landslide JUST LIKE 2019.
BECAUSE NOTHING HAS CHANGED EXCEPT THAT OBI AND ATIKU ARE NOW SHARING THEIR VOTES.

future001:
Those structures don’t mean much when the votes count. The era of taking the ballot box to a party chieftain’s house to thumb print is gone and it’s now one man one vote. So the only structure that counts is the people structure which belongs to Obi.

interesting

You mean vote count in Ekiti and Osun State governorship election if i may ask?

lhordspy:
Very true... It is more like Obi and Atiku fighting for their already 2019 joint votes. Tinubu is not affected a bit.

The number of new votes or should i say voters that is adding to the 2019 own .. Is just 1m+ newly registered voters, after INEC screened the double registration out.

Even if the 1m+ people are to vote for obi, which is practically impossible, add it to the number of Atiku/obi votes in 2019(which is impossible because Atiku already have the northern voters in his bag) ... It wont be enough to even win an election.

Incase you dont understand what am trying to say. Even if you join Obi votes presently + Atiku's vote + the 1m newly registered voters, it isnt still enough to defeat a certain Tinubu APC if going by the Last general election.

Why am refferring to the last general elections is because nothing changes, nothing have change. Except the rallies and supposedly '2million' match which we witness almost every seconds.

The same people engaging in rallies or supporting obi, never voted for APC 2019.

The same set of people feeling marginalised on religious bases, because of the muslim-muslim ticket will never vote for APC in 2019 too.

The same christian bodies antagonising muslim muslim ticket, Never supported Buhari 2019 also.

The same Afenifere, never supported APC 2019

The same South East, South south.. Are traditionally PDP voters, their votes never changes the outcome of 2019.

Infact some of the muslims voted Atiku/obi 2019, but this time arround with the present political situation where the campaign as been turned into religious one, religous sentiments have found it way in Nigeria politics now, those votes are going to APC this time.

Undecided voters in 2019 like me, who voted for Atiku/obi will never ever vote for any of them this time, why? Because of the aggressive way of the obidients followers. I know so many of us here that are on that line or should i say clinging to that excuse.

The south-west voted overwhelming for Atiku/obi 2019, not because of the love for Atiku or Obi but because we felt the pain of the failed First tenure of buhari then.. Even lagos was almost lost by APC even with Tinubu.
I feel my analysis is right here because those states lost by APC 2019 in southwest, was won by same APC governors during the governorship election except Oyo state which was narrowly lost.
Now, coming to 2023, i feels a tribal sentiment will play major role here, APC will win massively in south west. But what if APC lost, they lost Overall in the southwest in 2019 in the presidential election. It still never changes anything. APC STILL WON THE ELECTION. BUHARI WON.

So when you take all this into consideration, analyse it without religious sentiment or hatred for any candidate. IT DOESN'T CHANGES ANYTHING. Infact the antagonism. of the Buhari candidature we witness in 2019, was far far more than the Tinubu candidature upset we are witness now. Because the anger of Buhari's first tenure which was marred by gross incompetency, insecurities upset alot of people and it cut across all regions. Be it yoruba, hausa,igbo, egede, idoma, ebira... Just name it.. People were angry with his first tenure.
And after the election? I think we all know what happened - Buhari won again.

Some people are saying, the youth, the youth!. Do they PVc's? Alright fine, someone also came out to say they registered because of Obi this year.
Then they didnt turn out massively like we are been deceivedto believe, the number of newly registered voters justify my point. Just 1m+ (which am sure the youth cant have more than 50% of 1m+)

So in my opinion, it takes more more than this childish rallies, photoshopping Tinubu's picture in an irritating manner, or throwing of insult and jabs. We, when i mean we, i mean i included engage in all this for Atiku/obi 2019, Buhari still won.


By simple logic and permutation and the little knowledge i have about politics, TINUBU may not win next year general election, but APC WILL DEFINITELY WIN. And it will be by landslide JUST LIKE 2019.
BECAUSE NOTHING HAS CHANGED EXCEPT THAT OBI AND ATIKU ARE NOW SHARING THEIR VOTES.

You are one of the reasonable few

pinkgoodies:
Well. He is right.. BAT will get much votes in every northern state, same as in the south. Obi won't in most, also he has cancelled out Atikus vote in the SS n SE, even some in SW.. margin of victory for the winner will be little. I see a Runoff coming, unless the winner gets 50% of votes, leaving the other 50% for other candidates. which is likely not possible.

Are you sure BAT may experience this?

Haydens:
I hate this buffoon

favour2222:
They need to flog Reno cable for always saying rubbish

Because he spoke the truth?

BafanaBafana:
Tinubu won't get block votes anywhere. Obi will slash his votes in the SW, he will share votes with Atiku in the north. Tinubu might not even win Lagos

Even Buhari won Lagos, na Tinubu no go win Lagos? Eboes no sabi think abeg

edoairways:
Are you sure BAT may experience this?

Well, tell me what could stop dat if not God.

general111:
I remember vividly that this was how buhari started.
It started out as a social media thing, where people began to support buhari and throw shades at jonathan..
Who would have thought that buhari will defeat a sitting president in nigeria..
Looking at the way things are going now, peter Obi will be announced as president before 8am the next day....
To ignore peter obi is foolishness

Reno has told you the fact

You remember how many parties came together to form apc
You recall how many governor and legislature decamped to apc

Lp can't have gov, it can't have legislature but it will have president

Illusion

What LP will achieve is what Reno has told you