Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano - Politics

Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano - Politics - Nairaland

Nairaland Forum › Nairaland General › Politics › Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano (2385 Views)

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Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by Vote4Obi(op): 11:34am On Oct 05, 2022

You probably must have heard about the famed Kardashians or KKK states and how they determine election outcomes. Incidentally, that reality no longer holds because of current dynamics. Also, it has been variously stated that Kano is the most important state in terms of vote output but again, Rivers is now technically more important!

Firstly, here is the list of 10 states with the highest number of voters:

1. Lagos 7,155,920.
2. Kano 6,026,850.
3. Kaduna 4,411,723.
4. Rivers 3,689,197.
5. Katsina 3,570,740.
6. Delta 3,368,791.
7. Oyo 3,330,336.
8. Benue 2,832,087.
9. Bauchi 2,801,512.
10. Anambra 2,761,467.

Of the 10 most important states, 4 of them i.e. Rivers, Anambra, Delta, and Benue are likely to give Obi block votes. In addition to that, Obi may also pull a surprise by winning Lagos and Kaduna states!

Another remarkable point is that Lagos could go either to Obi or Tinubu. Kano may go either way to Kwankwaso or Atiku. Kaduna may go to Atiku, Tinubu or Obi. Oyo would have given Tinubu block votes but the governor is PDP and Obi-dient which dilutes the outcome. However, Rivers is absolutely certain to go to Obi with block votes. This makes the state more influencial Kano that would be devoured by up to 3 candidates, each grabbing high percentages.

What this means is that in absolute numbers, Obi is most likely to get the highest votes cast and also has a more assured base while Tinubu and Atiku are not sure of what they would get because of volatility and stiff competition in their supposed bases.

These 10 states cumulatively have about 40 million voters out of a total of 96 million and probably half goes to Obi.

These same factors are more or less same in the other 26 states and the FCT, which favours Obi.

Once again, congratulations to Obi, our incoming GCFR!!!!!!

31 Likes 4 Shares

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by Ekundayo7574(m): 11:36am On Oct 05, 2022

You are just fooling yourself up and down we all knows that peter Obi can not win the election all this south east pigs should have brain a beg

5 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by Vote4Obi(op): 11:40am On Oct 05, 2022

Ekundayo7574:
You are just fooling yourself up and down we all knows that peter Obi can not win the election all this south east pigs should have brain a beg

Insulting your father won't change the reality on ground. It only shows you lack good parental upbringing. A normal person would have intelligently countered the facts above with superior logic if they think otherwise, but unfortunately, agbado urchins are subhumans.

Obi is your next president, so deal with it!

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Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by Bendeco02: 11:43am On Oct 05, 2022

Ekundayo7574:
You are just fooling yourself up and down we all knows that peter Obi can not win the election all this south east pigs should have brain a beg

So, who will win?

Tinubu? With only irabgbaji votes? grin

21 Likes 1 Share

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by Authority1o1(m): 11:43am On Oct 05, 2022*

Okay...

Obi already has SE, SS and Lagos. Any rational human cannot deny this fact. He should make serious inroads in the core North so as to grab as many votes as possible to meet up with the constitutionally required percentage.

With Rivers vote, he'd be counterbalancing the Kano votes which as it stands belongs to no specific individual, be it Atiku, Kwankwaso or Tinubu.

This is going to be a tough game, but every indices favour Obi.

He's winning this election with a reasonable margin.

NLFPMOD, SEUN.

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Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by JoeNL22(m): 11:43am On Oct 05, 2022

Vote4Obi:
You probably must have heard about the famed Kardashians or KKK states and how they determine election outcomes. Incidentally, that reality no longer holds because of current dynamics. Also, it has been variously stated that Kano is the most important state in terms of vote output but again, Rivers is now technically more important!

Firstly, here is the list of 10 states with the highest number of voters:

1. Lagos 7,155,920.
2. Kano 6,026,850.
3. Kaduna 4,411,723.
4. Rivers 3,689,197.
5. Katsina 3,570,740.
6. Delta 3,368,791.
7. Oyo 3,330,336.
8. Benue 2,832,087.
9. Bauchi 2,801,512.
10. Anambra 2,761,467.

Of the 10 most important states, 4 of them i.e. Rivers, Anambra, Delta, and Benue are likely to give Obi block votes. In addition to that, Obi may also pull a surprise by winning Lagos and Kaduna states!

Another remarkable point is that Lagos could go either to Obi or Tinubu. Kano may go either way to Kwankwaso or Atiku. Kaduna may go to Atiku, Tinubu or Obi. Oyo would have given Tinubu block votes but the governor is PDP and Obi-dient which dilutes the outcome. However, Rivers is absolutely certain to go to Obi with block votes. This makes the state more influencial Kano that would be devoured by up to 3 candidates, each grabbing high percentages.

What this means is that in absolute numbers, Obi is most likely to get the highest votes cast and also has a more assured base while Tinubu and Atiku are not sure of what they would get because of volatility and stiff competition in their supposed bases.

These 10 states cumulatively have about 40 million voters out of a total of 96 million and probably half goes to Obi.

These same factors are more or less same in the other 26 states and the FCT, which favours Obi.

Once again, congratulations to Obi, our incoming GCFR!!!!!!

This is the best analysis I have read so far. Truly unique.

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Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by Sunnyshinylight(f): 11:43am On Oct 05, 2022

Congratulations to Peter Obi

It's your time to shine

7 Likes

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by JoeNL22(m): 11:52am On Oct 05, 2022

Vote4Obi:
You probably must have heard about the famed Kardashians or KKK states and how they determine election outcomes. Incidentally, that reality no longer holds because of current dynamics. Also, it has been variously stated that Kano is the most important state in terms of vote output but again, Rivers is now technically more important!

Firstly, here is the list of 10 states with the highest number of voters:

1. Lagos 7,155,920.
2. Kano 6,026,850.
3. Kaduna 4,411,723.
4. Rivers 3,689,197.
5. Katsina 3,570,740.
6. Delta 3,368,791.
7. Oyo 3,330,336.
8. Benue 2,832,087.
9. Bauchi 2,801,512.
10. Anambra 2,761,467.

Of the 10 most important states, 4 of them i.e. Rivers, Anambra, Delta, and Benue are likely to give Obi block votes. In addition to that, Obi may also pull a surprise by winning Lagos and Kaduna states!

Another remarkable point is that Lagos could go either to Obi or Tinubu. Kano may go either way to Kwankwaso or Atiku. Kaduna may go to Atiku, Tinubu or Obi. Oyo would have given Tinubu block votes but the governor is PDP and Obi-dient which dilutes the outcome. However, Rivers is absolutely certain to go to Obi with block votes. This makes the state more influencial Kano that would be devoured by up to 3 candidates, each grabbing high percentages.

What this means is that in absolute numbers, Obi is most likely to get the highest votes cast and also has a more assured base while Tinubu and Atiku are not sure of what they would get because of volatility and stiff competition in their supposed bases.

These 10 states cumulatively have about 40 million voters out of a total of 96 million and probably half goes to Obi.

These same factors are more or less same in the other 26 states and the FCT, which favours Obi.

Once again, congratulations to Obi, our incoming GCFR!!!!!!

It is Tinubu I pity for really!
He can't get bloc votes anywhere. The southwest they are shouting is totally divided. Obi will definitely get more than 49% in Lagos. The north is fully behind Atiku as they have always been. No southerner has ever won the core north since 1999. We saw it in 2011, 2007, 2015, 2019. Those that betrayed Jonathan from Tinubu to Atiku can and will never be president of this country. Never again

12 Likes

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by Urheadmaster(m): 12:11pm On Oct 05, 2022

Ekundayo7574:
You are just fooling yourself up and down we all knows that peter Obi can not win the election all this south east pigs should have brain a beg

Are you an INEC officials that decide who wins and who lose tongue

4 Likes

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by Akurakambe(m): 12:19pm On Oct 05, 2022

Peter Obi is winning this election hands down.

From the states mentioned above, Obi will win Anambra, Delta, Rivers and Benue convincingly.

Congratulations to Peter Obi.

11 Likes

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by YourhealthNG2(m): 12:26pm On Oct 05, 2022

Vote4Obi:
You probably must have heard about the famed Kardashians or KKK states and how they determine election outcomes. Incidentally, that reality no longer holds because of current dynamics. Also, it has been variously stated that Kano is the most important state in terms of vote output but again, Rivers is now technically more important!

Firstly, here is the list of 10 states with the highest number of voters:

1. Lagos 7,155,920.
2. Kano 6,026,850.
3. Kaduna 4,411,723.
4. Rivers 3,689,197.
5. Katsina 3,570,740.
6. Delta 3,368,791.
7. Oyo 3,330,336.
8. Benue 2,832,087.
9. Bauchi 2,801,512.
10. Anambra 2,761,467.

Of the 10 most important states, 4 of them i.e. Rivers, Anambra, Delta, and Benue are likely to give Obi block votes. In addition to that, Obi may also pull a surprise by winning Lagos and Kaduna states!

Another remarkable point is that Lagos could go either to Obi or Tinubu. Kano may go either way to Kwankwaso or Atiku. Kaduna may go to Atiku, Tinubu or Obi. Oyo would have given Tinubu block votes but the governor is PDP and Obi-dient which dilutes the outcome. However, Rivers is absolutely certain to go to Obi with block votes. This makes the state more influencial Kano that would be devoured by up to 3 candidates, each grabbing high percentages.

What this means is that in absolute numbers, Obi is most likely to get the highest votes cast and also has a more assured base while Tinubu and Atiku are not sure of what they would get because of volatility and stiff competition in their supposed bases.

These 10 states cumulatively have about 40 million voters out of a total of 96 million and probably half goes to Obi.

These same factors are more or less same in the other 26 states and the FCT, which favours Obi.

Once again, congratulations to Obi, our incoming GCFR!!!!!!

Well said...

Just to add a very important point...

Of all the 4 major contenders, only Peter Obi has a growing support base in the last 3 months, permeating and eaten up the support bases of especially the PDP and APC..

If that trend continues in the next few months, which is expected, then Peter Obi is expected to win with a wide margin.

9 Likes

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by heniford2: 1:50pm On Oct 05, 2022

Ekundayo7574:
You are just fooling yourself up and down we all knows that peter Obi can not win the election all this south east pigs should have brain a beg

brother obi is force now kindly join any Lp group to see whats going on house to house reg with phone numbers and data in south south and south east completed oh! We are pushing in NC and NW now with funds available obi with win this particular election if argue it we can go on a bet

6 Likes

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by ganye1: 3:04pm On Oct 05, 2022

Everything is wrong with this analysis. First 10 states are used as the basis of the analysis which does not give complete picture of the overall results. States like Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Zamfara, Adamawa, Gombe Bauchi, Katsina, Niger, Akwa Ibom, Taraba and Cross Rivers are states which PDP is likely to win with varying degree of margins. Cumulative votes from these states will give Atiku edge over over Obi and Tinubu.
Secondly I believe the analyst did not take into cognisance of the fact that Obi's Labour Party does not have candidates is most of the constituencies and where it has candidates they are mostly light weight politicians who do not have the resources and the goodwill of the their people to attract votes to LP to win. Do you think that those candidates of APC and PDP will leave their party and work for Obi? Those APC and PDP candidates will put their survival first and not sentiments. They live with the people and more likely to get people to vote their party than LP which has no candidate. We have seen this with Buhari. In all the times he contested before winning the 2019 election. He was able to galvanised and get support in core North but the fact that his party was not solidly on the ground.
Thirdly a candidate who has problem with about have the population is most certainly going to fail to win the election. Notwithstanding the denials Obi's candidature is projected as an Igbo and Christian agenda. He has already ostracised the Muslim votes and cannot get all the Christian votes. The same with Tinubu with his Muslim - Muslim ticket. The ticket has almost alienated the Christians who made up roughly half of the votes. It is only Atiku that does not have this problem. Tinubu and Obi are likely to win in their respective zones but fail to win in other areas. Atiku on the other hand has over ten states as his solid base and can comfortably win in most states outside the comfort zones Obi and Tinubu.

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by hegelian: 3:28pm On Oct 05, 2022

Ekundayo7574:
You are just fooling yourself up and down we all knows that peter Obi can not win the election all this south east pigs should have brain a beg

the op didnt abuse you and the only thing you can reply with is insult and abuse...u guys should try to maintain sanity a little bit..if they replied you now, you will go ballistic and shouting intolerant...

2 Likes

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by gamechanger1: 3:43pm On Oct 05, 2022

Vote4Obi:
You probably must have heard about the famed Kardashians or KKK states and how they determine election outcomes. Incidentally, that reality no longer holds because of current dynamics. Also, it has been variously stated that Kano is the most important state in terms of vote output but again, Rivers is now technically more important!

Firstly, here is the list of 10 states with the highest number of voters:

1. Lagos 7,155,920.
2. Kano 6,026,850.
3. Kaduna 4,411,723.
4. Rivers 3,689,197.
5. Katsina 3,570,740.
6. Delta 3,368,791.
7. Oyo 3,330,336.
8. Benue 2,832,087.
9. Bauchi 2,801,512.
10. Anambra 2,761,467.

Of the 10 most important states, 4 of them i.e. Rivers, Anambra, Delta, and Benue are likely to give Obi block votes. In addition to that, Obi may also pull a surprise by winning Lagos and Kaduna states!

Another remarkable point is that Lagos could go either to Obi or Tinubu. Kano may go either way to Kwankwaso or Atiku. Kaduna may go to Atiku, Tinubu or Obi. Oyo would have given Tinubu block votes but the governor is PDP and Obi-dient which dilutes the outcome. However, Rivers is absolutely certain to go to Obi with block votes. This makes the state more influencial Kano that would be devoured by up to 3 candidates, each grabbing high percentages.

What this means is that in absolute numbers, Obi is most likely to get the highest votes cast and also has a more assured base while Tinubu and Atiku are not sure of what they would get because of volatility and stiff competition in their supposed bases.

These 10 states cumulatively have about 40 million voters out of a total of 96 million and probably half goes to Obi.

These same factors are more or less same in the other 26 states and the FCT, which favours Obi.

Once again, congratulations to Obi, our incoming GCFR!!!!!!

What if Kwankwaso collapses his structure to Atiku or Tinubu?

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by Abdu81: 3:48pm On Oct 05, 2022

Ekundayo7574:
You are just fooling yourself up and down we all knows that peter Obi can not win the election all this south east pigs should have brain a beg

But this vegetable will?

Dream on

3 Likes

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by Ddokie: 4:20pm On Oct 05, 2022

Ekundayo7574:
You are just fooling yourself up and down we all knows that peter Obi can not win the election all this south east pigs should have brain a beg

So it is Tinubu that will win? With votes from which region?

If you have enough data to spare, go to YouTube and watch street polls across the nation, and you will see the direction of the north, and the direction of the south. Tinubu is not in contention.

And if you are banking on rigging, then you should watch Mike Igini's latest interview on arise tv.

Anyone who doesn't have genuine supporters outside his region stands no chance in this election. Tinubu and Kwankwaso have little support outside their regions. And even within their regions, Tinubu and kwankwaso will still struggle to come out tops.

Ekundayo, BAT is not in the race at all.

1 Like

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by Ekundayo7574(m): 4:57pm On Oct 05, 2022

Ddokie:
So it is Tinubu that will win? With votes from which region?

If you have enough data to spare, go to YouTube and watch street polls across the nation, and you will see the direction of the north, and the direction of the south. Tinubu is not in contention. With due respect you very very sick to b saying all this trash

And if you are banking on rigging, then you should watch Mike Igini's latest interview on arise tv.

Anyone who doesn't have genuine supporters outside his region stands no chance in this election. Tinubu and Kwankwaso have little support outside their regions. And even within their regions, Tinubu and kwankwaso will still struggle to come out tops.

Ekundayo, BAT is not in the race at all.

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by naijapips04: 5:08pm On Oct 05, 2022

Vote4Obi:
You probably must have heard about the famed Kardashians or KKK states and how they determine election outcomes. Incidentally, that reality no longer holds because of current dynamics. Also, it has been variously stated that Kano is the most important state in terms of vote output but again, Rivers is now technically more important!

Firstly, here is the list of 10 states with the highest number of voters:

1. Lagos 7,155,920.
2. Kano 6,026,850.
3. Kaduna 4,411,723.
4. Rivers 3,689,197.
5. Katsina 3,570,740.
6. Delta 3,368,791.
7. Oyo 3,330,336.
8. Benue 2,832,087.
9. Bauchi 2,801,512.
10. Anambra 2,761,467.

Of the 10 most important states, 4 of them i.e. Rivers, Anambra, Delta, and Benue are likely to give Obi block votes. In addition to that, Obi may also pull a surprise by winning Lagos and Kaduna states!

Another remarkable point is that Lagos could go either to Obi or Tinubu. Kano may go either way to Kwankwaso or Atiku. Kaduna may go to Atiku, Tinubu or Obi. Oyo would have given Tinubu block votes but the governor is PDP and Obi-dient which dilutes the outcome. However, Rivers is absolutely certain to go to Obi with block votes. This makes the state more influencial Kano that would be devoured by up to 3 candidates, each grabbing high percentages.

What this means is that in absolute numbers, Obi is most likely to get the highest votes cast and also has a more assured base while Tinubu and Atiku are not sure of what they would get because of volatility and stiff competition in their supposed bases.

These 10 states cumulatively have about 40 million voters out of a total of 96 million and probably half goes to Obi.

These same factors are more or less same in the other 26 states and the FCT, which favours Obi.

Once again, congratulations to Obi, our incoming GCFR!!!!!!

the way zombidients reason is astonishingly foolish.

1 Like

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by Ddokie: 5:48pm On Oct 05, 2022

[quote author=Ekundayo7574 post=117298444][/quote]How am i very sick ekun? I don't live in the north. I depend on what i hear from northerners and what i see online.

No vex e. I know it is painful.

1 Like

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by JoeNL22(m): 7:11pm On Oct 05, 2022

Vote4Obi:
You probably must have heard about the famed Kardashians or KKK states and how they determine election outcomes. Incidentally, that reality no longer holds because of current dynamics. Also, it has been variously stated that Kano is the most important state in terms of vote output but again, Rivers is now technically more important!

Firstly, here is the list of 10 states with the highest number of voters:

1. Lagos 7,155,920.
2. Kano 6,026,850.
3. Kaduna 4,411,723.
4. Rivers 3,689,197.
5. Katsina 3,570,740.
6. Delta 3,368,791.
7. Oyo 3,330,336.
8. Benue 2,832,087.
9. Bauchi 2,801,512.
10. Anambra 2,761,467.

Of the 10 most important states, 4 of them i.e. Rivers, Anambra, Delta, and Benue are likely to give Obi block votes. In addition to that, Obi may also pull a surprise by winning Lagos and Kaduna states!

Another remarkable point is that Lagos could go either to Obi or Tinubu. Kano may go either way to Kwankwaso or Atiku. Kaduna may go to Atiku, Tinubu or Obi. Oyo would have given Tinubu block votes but the governor is PDP and Obi-dient which dilutes the outcome. However, Rivers is absolutely certain to go to Obi with block votes. This makes the state more influencial Kano that would be devoured by up to 3 candidates, each grabbing high percentages.

What this means is that in absolute numbers, Obi is most likely to get the highest votes cast and also has a more assured base while Tinubu and Atiku are not sure of what they would get because of volatility and stiff competition in their supposed bases.

These 10 states cumulatively have about 40 million voters out of a total of 96 million and probably half goes to Obi.

These same factors are more or less same in the other 26 states and the FCT, which favours Obi.

Once again, congratulations to Obi, our incoming GCFR!!!!!!

My Objective Analysis
How people might votes in the swing states

Lagos(7.2)
Atiku - 2.4
Obi - 2.4
Tinubu- 2.4

Kano(6.0)
Tinubu - 2.0
Atiku - 2.0
Kwankwanso - 2.0

Kaduna(4.4)
Tinubu - 1.1
Atiku - 1.1
Obi - 1.1
Kwankwanso - 1.1

Rivers(3.4)
Atiku - 1.7
Obi - 1.7

Kastina(3.6)
Tinubu - 1.2
Atiku - 1.2
Kwankwanso - 1.2

Delta (3.4)
Atiku - 1.7
Obi - 1.7

Oyo(3.3)
Tinubu - 1.6
Obi - 1.7

Benue(2. cool

Tinubu - 0.9
Kwankwanso- 0.9
Obi - 0.9

Bauchi(2. cool

Tinubu - 0.7
Atiku - 0.7
Obi - 0.7
Kwankwanso - 0.7

Anabram(2. cool

Obi - 2.8

Total
Atiku- 10.8
Obi- 13
Tinubu- 9.9
Kwankwanso- 5.9

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by Vote4Obi(op): 8:19pm On Oct 05, 2022

JoeNL22:
My Objective Analysis
How people might votes in the swing states

Lagos(7.2)
Atiku - 2.4
Obi - 2.4
Tinubu- 2.4

Kano(6.0)
Tinubu - 2.0
Atiku - 2.0
Kwankwanso - 2.0

Kaduna(4.4)
Tinubu - 1.1
Atiku - 1.1
Obi - 1.1
Kwankwanso - 1.1

Rivers(3.4)
Atiku - 1.7
Obi - 1.7

Kastina(3.6)
Tinubu - 1.2
Atiku - 1.2
Kwankwanso - 1.2

Delta (3.4)
Atiku - 1.7
Obi - 1.7

Oyo(3.3)
Tinubu - 1.6
Obi - 1.7

Benue(2.
Tinubu - 0.9
Kwankwanso- 0.9
Obi - 0.9

Bauchi(2.
Tinubu - 0.7
Atiku - 0.7
Obi - 0.7
Kwankwanso - 0.7

Anabram(2.
Obi - 2.8

Total
Atiku- 10.8
Obi- 13
Tinubu- 9.9
Kwankwanso- 5.9

Lol, I found it amusing when you allocate same number for Atiku, Obi and Tinubu in Lagos. Lagos is strictly between Tinubu and Obi, Atiku will come a very distant third.

Also, Atiku sharing Rivers with Obi in equal numbers is not realistic. Even if Wike decides to work fully with Atiku, Obi will still win Rivers decisively.

Delta 50-50 between Obi and Atiku? That's false, Obi is winning Delta by a wide margin. Haven't you heard of government appointees resigning or rejecting offers because they're Obi-dient? Such can only happen when a candidate is massively popular.

Tinubu will definitely win Oyo but Obi will get over 25% while Atiku won't get up to 10%.

Atiku will win Bauchi but Obi and Tinubu may get up to 25% each.

3 Likes

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by Vote4Obi(op): 8:22pm On Oct 05, 2022

naijapips04:
the way zombidients reason is astonishingly foolish.

Sorry, you're actually the foolish one here. Intelligent person will counter it superior logic or facts but since you're empty upstairs, you end up insulting yourself.

2 Likes

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by naijapips04: 8:26pm On Oct 05, 2022

Vote4Obi:
Sorry, you're actually the foolish one here. Intelligent person will counter it superior logic or facts but since you're empty upstairs, you end up insulting yourself.

There's nothing to counter unfortunately. How do you counter foolishness without looking foolish? Just go. You goan learn. grin

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by nameo: 8:37pm On Oct 05, 2022

Vote4Obi:
You probably must have heard about the famed Kardashians or KKK states and how they determine election outcomes. Incidentally, that reality no longer holds because of current dynamics. Also, it has been variously stated that Kano is the most important state in terms of vote output but again, Rivers is now technically more important!

Firstly, here is the list of 10 states with the highest number of voters:

1. Lagos 7,155,920.
2. Kano 6,026,850.
3. Kaduna 4,411,723.
4. Rivers 3,689,197.
5. Katsina 3,570,740.
6. Delta 3,368,791.
7. Oyo 3,330,336.
8. Benue 2,832,087.
9. Bauchi 2,801,512.
10. Anambra 2,761,467.

Of the 10 most important states, 4 of them i.e. Rivers, Anambra, Delta, and Benue are likely to give Obi block votes. In addition to that, Obi may also pull a surprise by winning Lagos and Kaduna states!

Another remarkable point is that Lagos could go either to Obi or Tinubu. Kano may go either way to Kwankwaso or Atiku. Kaduna may go to Atiku, Tinubu or Obi. Oyo would have given Tinubu block votes but the governor is PDP and Obi-dient which dilutes the outcome. However, Rivers is absolutely certain to go to Obi with block votes. This makes the state more influencial Kano that would be devoured by up to 3 candidates, each grabbing high percentages.

What this means is that in absolute numbers, Obi is most likely to get the highest votes cast and also has a more assured base while Tinubu and Atiku are not sure of what they would get because of volatility and stiff competition in their supposed bases.

These 10 states cumulatively have about 40 million voters out of a total of 96 million and probably half goes to Obi.

These same factors are more or less same in the other 26 states and the FCT, which favours Obi.

Once again, congratulations to Obi, our incoming GCFR!!!!!!

Great analysis, Bruv

Likely possibility, but the Obi Team should see it as a "path to victory" and work assiduously towards its fulfilment.

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Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by Vote4Obi(op): 8:49pm On Oct 05, 2022

gamechanger1:
What if Kwankwaso collapses his structure to Atiku or Tinubu?

Whether Kwankwaso collapses his structure for Atiku or Tinubu won't make much difference because his influence is only felt in NW. Either way, Obi won't get anything significant in NW except Kaduna.

So, if Kwankwaso drops for Tinubu, it will only make him to win the region overall, but it won't stop Atiku from getting huge percentage too and vice versa.

Buhari has been winning same region landslide yet he kept failing until he was able to win some middle belt and SW states, now imagine same region now split almost in half while Obi now has almost the entire regions Jonathan had when he won Buhari in 2011.

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Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by JoeNL22(m): 9:31pm On Oct 05, 2022

Vote4Obi:
Lol, I found it amusing when you allocate same number for Atiku, Obi and Tinubu in Lagos. Lagos is strictly between Tinubu and Obi, Atiku will come a very distant third.

Also, Atiku sharing Rivers with Obi in equal numbers is not realistic. Even if Wike decides to work fully with Atiku, Obi will still win Rivers decisively.

Delta 50-50 between Obi and Atiku? That's false, Obi is winning Delta by a wide margin. Haven't you heard of government appointees resigning or rejecting offers because they're Obi-dient? Such can only happen when a candidate is massively popular.

Tinubu will definitely win Oyo but Obi will get over 25% while Atiku won't get up to 10%.

Atiku will win Bauchi but Obi and Tinubu may get up to 25% each.

Nice analysis

Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by gamechanger1: 9:45am On Oct 06, 2022

Vote4Obi:
Whether Kwankwaso collapses his structure for Atiku or Tinubu won't make much difference because his influence is only felt in NW. Either way, Obi won't get anything significant in NW except Kaduna.

So, if Kwankwaso drops for Tinubu, it will only make him to win the region overall, but it won't stop Atiku from getting huge percentage too and vice versa.

Buhari has been winning same region landslide yet he kept failing until he was able to win some middle belt and SW states, now imagine same region now split almost in half while Obi now has almost the entire regions Jonathan had when he won Buhari in 2011.

Hmmm, interesting analysis. We need a fresh and radically different direction in leadership; the country is in a mess. I pray Obi and Datti make it to Aso Rock next year.

I have my PVC, i will do the needful to deliver FCT

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Re: Statistics Indicate Obi's Victory & Why Rivers Is More Important Than Kano by Achilles881: 10:35am On Oct 06, 2022

Granted that Peter obi is trying to pull Nigerians away from tribal and religious politics, Nigeria is not yet matured enough to vote on competence, based on the fact above, your analysis is a bit off the mark, I tried to correct certain figures you posted therein

JoeNL22:
My Objective Analysis
How people might votes in the swing states

Lagos(7.2) corrected
Atiku - 2.4 (1.0)
Obi - 2.4. (2.5)
Tinubu- 2.4. (2.7)

Kano(6.0)
Tinubu - 2.0. (0.5)
Atiku - 2.0. (1.
Kwankwanso - (3.4)
Obi. (0.3)

Kaduna(4.4).
Tinubu - 1.1. (0.4)
Atiku - 1.1. (1.9)
Obi - 1.1 (1.1)
Kwankwanso - 1.1. (1.1)

Rivers(3.4).
Atiku - 1.7. (0.2)
Obi - 1.7. (3.1)
Tinubu. (0.1)

Kastina(3.6).
Tinubu - 1.2. (0.
Atiku - 1.2. (1.5)
Kwankwanso - 1.2. (1.3)

Delta (3.4)
Atiku - 1.7. (0.3)
Obi - 1.7. (3.1)

Oyo(3.3)
Atiku. (0.1)
Tinubu - 1.6. (2.6)
Obi - 1.7. (0.6)

Benue(2.
Tinubu - 0.9. (0.3)
Kwankwanso- 0.9. (0.4)
Obi - 0.9. (2.1)

Bauchi(2..
Tinubu - 0.7. (0.2)
Atiku - 0.7. (1.2)
Obi - 0.7. (0.4)
Kwankwanso - 0.7. (1.0)

Anabram(2..
Obi - 2.8. (2.7)
Others. (0.1)

Total
Atiku- 10.8. (8.1))
Obi- 13. (14.7)
Tinubu- 9.9. (7.6)
Kwankwanso- 5.9. (7.5)

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