₦airaland Forum

Kyase:
The North will vote Atiku, true especially North west
But he can’t get more than 50%
Amana and Tinubu will share the rest , most likely 10/40 in Favour of tinubu
Now is for Tinubu to get more vote than Atiku in the south to win it
Can he achieve that?

Obi would win most states in the south and atiku more states in the north. Personally, i don't see Tinubu winning presidential election.

joyandfaith:
Yes . But most Buhari supporters in the north are now becoming atiku supporters.
I don't see Tinubu getting more supporters.

Not possible.most buhari voters are fanatics and radicals.they wi go with kwankwaso

Kyase:
The North will vote Atiku, true especially North west
But he can’t get more than 50%
Amana and Tinubu will share the rest , most likely 10/40 in Favour of tinubu
Now is for Tinubu to get more vote than Atiku in the south to win it
Can he achieve that?

Tinubu doesnt need to win the north especially ne/nw.he just needs a narrow lose and a 10% loss is ok as far as he wins atiku in sw massively,wins him in nc and keeps the gap respectfully in se/ss

joyandfaith:
Obi would win most states in the south and atiku more states in the north. Personally, i don't see Tinubu winning presidential election.

You are not objectively.obi wi find it difficult winning outside se

Thread updated

[quote author=SATANICALLY666 post=117640685][/quote]I think Tinubu needs 60% in NE, 40% in NW, 70% in SW, 40% in NC, 30% in SS and 10% in SE to win.
Atiku is a North' s project of hanging on to power after 8yrs of PMB. Like him or not, Wike is resisting this guise and I expect him to support any southern candidate of his choice.
This pretence by the North to be so pro democracy may sink Nigeria. Power must rotate North to South and we will reach a stage that it can rotate MB and Core Noth then East and West but in principle, it must be North and South.

The tribalism statement made by Atiku and circulating online is unbelievable for a statesman, that shoukd open southern voters eyes and let them vote a southerner.

garfield1:
You are not objectively.obi wi find it difficult winning outside se

Noted!!!

joyandfaith:
Obi would win most states in the south and atiku more states in the north. Personally, i don't see Tinubu winning presidential election.

I don’t see Obi winning 4 states sef
You are underestimating Tinubu, arrrh

garfield1:
I heard he even composed a song for tinubu...
Hon Emmanuel udende was a former reps member for Sankera.I dont know much about Titus zam.the pdp members rep burutu and APA/agatu are in lp

It’s not about composing songs, though for your campaign to be effective in Benue, especially the ZONE A & B you will need songs
That been said
Benue now is APC to lose, song or without song

9jahotblog:
lol stop displaying your ignorance here joor. With governor ortom going to the senate and with the huge Pdp structures on ground and also the national Pdp chairman, Senator Iyorchia Ayu is from Benue state, Pdp wins benue State 100%. Tell yourself the truths joor. All the villagers are rooting for Atiku/Okowa of Pdp. No one want Tinubu in their discussions in the north.

North Central don't want your fulani killer herdsman. Sink that into your skull. Federal election is different.

But, I thing urchins said Baba shaky shaky Emilokan will inherit politicians 's cult-like followers

garfield1:
You are not objectively.obi wi find it difficult winning outside se

If Atiku wins 50% of northern votes, Tinubu 40% and Kwankwaso 10%,that 10% margin will be huge.
Let me explain
The north polled a total of 17,259,599( APC & PDP combined only) in 2019
Now 2023,feelers are pointing to the fact of voter apathy in the north ( Evident in the inec registration for new voters)
So I used 14m total net votes for the north,a margin of 3m difference between 2019 and 2023
PDP got,32% of north votes and Buhari polled 67%
(5559551 to 11700048)
PDP 2023
7m ( 50% of 14m net votes)
APC
5.6m( 40% of 14m net votes)
NNPP
1.4m(10% of 14m net votes)
Subtracting the difference you will get a whooping sum of 1.4m votes, massive if you ask me.
How do you see this ?

Aiel123:
If Atiku wins 50% of northern votes, Tinubu 40% and Kwankwaso 10%,that 10% margin will be huge.
Let me explain
The north polled a total of 17,259,599( APC & PDP combined only) in 2019
Now 2023,feelers are pointing to the fact of voter apathy in the north ( Evident in the inec registration for new voters)
So I used 14m total net votes for the north,a margin of 3m difference between 2019 and 2023
PDP got,32% of north votes and Buhari polled 67%
(5559551 to 11700048)
PDP 2023
7m ( 50% of 14m net votes)
APC
5.6m( 40% of 14m net votes)
NNPP
1.4m(10% of 14m net votes)
Subtracting the difference you will get a whooping sum of 1.4m votes, massive if you ask me.
How do you see this ?

1.4 million lead against tinubu is almost impossible especially with tinubu looking stronger in nc.it will now boil down to tinubu margin in sw and how he competes against atiku in ss/se..
With apathy in core north,I see more of nc coming out this year.using 10 mil turnout is simpler.discounting obi is faulty.the Christians up north can give him up to 1 million so I'll keep it at 40%35%15%10%..if we are not careful,obi vsn win nc and kwankwaso nw.

Kyase:
It’s not about composing songs, though for your campaign to be effective in Benue, especially the ZONE A & B you will need songs
That been said
Benue now is APC to lose, song or without song

I dont understand you.initially,you were talking about atiku winning benue now you changed to apc.hmmmm.I dont know why you discount obi but at least half of northern Christians are with him,he will get at least a million.

garfield1:
1.4 million lead against tinubu is almost impossible especially with tinubu looking stronger in nc.it will now boil down to tinubu margin in sw and how he competes against atiku in ss/se..
With apathy in core north,I see more of nc coming out this year.using 10 mil turnout is simpler.discounting obi is faulty.the Christians up north can give him up to 1 million so I'll keep it at 40%35%15%10%..if we are not careful,obi vsn win nc and kwankwaso nw.

Oh I forgot Obi.( I will go with your percentage and 10m net voters)
I do a fresh one adding Obi.
PDP: 4m(40%)
APC: 3.5m( 35%)
NNPP:1.5m(15%)
LP:1m(10%)
That's give you 500k margin.
Remember it will increase very much whenever net votes go high.

garfield1:
I dont understand you.initially,you were talking about atiku winning benue now you changed to apc.hmmmm.I dont know why you discount obi but at least half of northern Christians are with him,he will get at least a million.

When yesterday most churches, minus Pentecostal churches were asking their members to vote Atiku
I won’t mention the church
Northern Christian elders are more comfortable with Atiku than Obi
Why do you think the obidient movement is dying in those areas ?
I can screenshot three furious conversations I had with obidients in Bauchi, kaduna and Gombe

Kyase:
When yesterday most churches, minus Pentecostal churches were asking their members to vote Atiku
I won’t mention the church
Northern Christian elders are more comfortable with Atiku than Obi
Why do you think the obidient movement is dying in those areas ?
I can screenshot three furious conversations I had with obidients in Bauchi, kaduna and Gombe

Obidients can't survive in bauchi and gombe na..I feel the Christians are divided between the two but most on benue plateau have always tend to vote southerners or moderates

garfield1:
Obidients can't survive in bauchi and gombe na..I feel the Christians are divided between the two but most on benue plateau have always tend to vote southerners or moderates

Even the movement in Benue is dying bro
The plateau own is as good as dead

Aiel123:
Oh I forgot Obi.( I will go with your percentage and 10m net voters)
I do a fresh one adding Obi.
PDP: 4m(40%)
APC: 3.5m( 35%)
NNPP:1.5m(15%)
LP:1m(10%)
That's give you 500k margin.
Remember it will increase very much whenever net votes go high.

Yes.I see a minimum turnout of 10 mil plus but it won't get up to 15 mil.the south might match the north or exceed like in 1999-1993.if tinubu gets above 60% in sw and obi above 70% in se,atiku becomes third fiddle

Kyase:
Even the movement in Benue is dying bro
The plateau own is as good as dead

You are funny.how can you say its dying when it is even spreading? More voters are joining the movement daily.

garfield1:
You are funny.how can you say its dying when it is even spreading? More voters are joining the movement daily.

You are too naive abeg
Do you know what voters suppression is?

Kyase:
You are too naive abeg

See,I know obi won't win but you can't deny that he has made tinubu chances brighter.

Kyase:
80 percent of Atikulators in 2019 are now obedient
I was Atikulating until yesterday’s speech by Atiku

I no get candidate again

Is that so?

garfield1:
Yes.I see a minimum turnout of 10 mil plus but it won't get up to 15 mil.the south might match the north or exceed like in 1999-1993.if tinubu gets above 60% in sw and obi above 70% in se,atiku becomes third fiddle

What matters now is winning convincingly in your respective strongholds.
SE for Obi
SW for Tinubu.
North is divided ( Don't forget the Buhari factor oo plus I am not convinced PDP will do well let alone win the north)
SS, Wike is gone with Rivers & Cross River,plus a fragment of Edo.
It isn't looking rosy for PDP at the moment.
In case we lose as a party I really wish we'll not relinquish our strength at the guber polls.
Tinubu has the momentum now.

garfield1:
See,I know obi won't win but you can't deny that he has made tinubu chances brighter.

General election doesn’t Favour anyone
In this period

Okoroawusa:
Is that so?

Atiku don too mumu

Kyase:
General election doesn’t Favour anyone
In this period

Someone has to win

garfield1:
Yes.I see a minimum turnout of 10 mil plus but it won't get up to 15 mil.the south might match the north or exceed like in 1999-1993.if tinubu gets above 60% in sw and obi above 70% in se,atiku becomes third fiddle

I don't think this your calculations will work ooo.

There is no way Tinubu will get 40% of northern votes. Again, Obi won't get up to 70% in the south south and even some south eastern states.

I can tell you that the number of votes to be casted in this election won't be as high as you projected. Reason: there won't be much rigging as a result of non availability of the incident form, compulsory accreditation, non availability of multiple votes and electronic transmission of the results.

This can easily be noticed in both Ekiti and Osun State election.

We go soon ban this your new account ....Ajá digbolugi

KGD10:
North Central don't want your fulani killer herdsman. Sink that into your skull. Federal election is different.

KGD10:
North Central don't want your fulani killer herdsman. Sink that into your skull. Federal election is different.

You dun switch account, shey? Mynd44 and Nlfpmod go soon ban this your alternate

Trinitycian:
You dun switch account, shey? Mynd44 and Nlfpmod go soon ban this your alternate

Says who?

I can as well as claim some moniker are yours.. Why cry when I'm talking about issue based stuff? Discuss on this issue based stuff or keep quiet.

You always cry and disparage other ethnic while championing that Fulani would continue to rule as if they own Nigeria but you have the nerves to cry when I told you it won't be the case?

Aiel123:
What matters now is winning convincingly in your respective strongholds.
SE for Obi
SW for Tinubu.
North is divided ( Don't forget the Buhari factor oo plus I am not convinced PDP will do well let alone win the north)
SS, Wike is gone with Rivers & Cross River,plus a fragment of Edo.
It isn't looking rosy for PDP at the moment.
In case we lose as a party I really wish we'll not relinquish our strength at the guber polls.
Tinubu has the momentum now.

Obi too has some momentum.it is a tight election with fine margins.atiku greatest weakness is not having a natural base..the election is now like a ucl tie,winning well at home and scoring away goals...atiku is focusing too much on the core north to the detriment of other regions.for atiku to win,he needs to reenact what happened in 2015...

For guber it seems like pdp are focusing more on guber than presidential.though a section are against wike,they will still want to deliver their local candidates.for delta,if okowa focuses too much on presidential, he will lose delta esp with ibori camp lurking.you can see how omo agege is relaxed and focused while okowa is gallivanting with atiku