₦airaland Forum

ArewaNorth:
Which Southern votes, SS, SE or SW?
I swear to almighty God there is no reasonable indices or realistic permutation that can make Peter Obi President.
Buhari was duped by Buba Galadima and others for 12yrs believing that regional votes could make him President untill he made reasonable/wise alliance.
SW and NW has the highest number of voters, the voting strength of the entire SE & SS combined can't match the votes of NW and single state in the SW.
The permutation of winning election in Nigeria is, Presidential candidate has to win with majority of votes and win 25% in at least 24 states across the 6 geopolitical zones. No way your ethno-religious bigotry can work.
Somebody, somewhere is strategically planning to just have at least 50% of votes from ruling party States outside his zone, planning on sweeping 2/3 in NC and NE in similar manner and use his zone to get majority of the to be casted votes while you are here expecting illusionary ethno-religious power to make your soon to be frustrated candidate President. This game is too big for myopic minds.

NwaMamaIwota:
lol I predicted this.

Northerners cannot afford to split their votes into 3 Atiku Tinubu and Kwankwaso or even 4 because I heard that the Mustapha guy has some followers too.

They're going for Atiku being their best chance and due to the acceptance of Atiku in some southern region and Middle belt. (like or hate it Atiku is more acceptable in the south than tinubu while Obi is the most acceptable )

I keep laughing when people undermine Peter Obi chances they should go and check 2015 stats with almost every northern states and South West including Middle belt for Buhari yet he defeated Jonathan with like 2 million votes which kano alone gave Buhari 3 million no void votes.
now let's analyze it like this.
2015 the change tsunami was sweeping everywhere except those region like SE/SS that saw it coming just like we're already seeing this renewed hope failure.
Buhari was a sole northern candidate and with cult followers even when he was in CPC so almost every northern governor worked for him.
but today we have 3 or even 4 contestants gunning for northern votes.
Tinubu chose Muslim/Muslim ticket to stand a chance
Atiku a core north loved by the north (check 2019 stats with Buhari on ballot )
Kwankwaso with his northern followers.
even almustapha sef has followers.

So before a candidate can get from 800 to 1 million votes in kano alone but next year it won't be like that.
unless Kwankwaso collapses his structure to any major contestants trust me no candidate will be able to win any north states with anything more than 200k votes due to vote splitting and of course BIVAS.

This is what Northerns don't want that's why they're decamping massively to Atiku side if not they'll loose the ability to determine the outcome of the election next year.
well they know how to play politics.

I urge southerners to pitch their tents with Peter Obi and Middle belts too.

for now this election is still open and any major contestants can win.

Nyamuri:
You guys keep talking about division and sharing of northern votes between 3 candidates in the north, sounds like a broken record.. but let me state some facts

1. Your not a northerner, whatever you wrote is just the figment of ur imagination molded from whatever you hear and see on social media

2. Although kwankwasso is famous, I and many of his supporters won't waste our votes on him knowing he won't and can't win. Kwankwasso can only get significant votes in Kano and Jigawa state

3. Most of the northern politicians govs, senators, HOA, HOR, LG chairmen, foot soldiers etc all rely on Tinubu's presidency for relevance. Hence, will do anything to win

4. For argument sake, let's say hypothetically
3 of them does succeed in sharing northern votes

SE= 10m
Kaduna, Kano and Katsina state= 13m

Let's say PO gets 100% of SE votes(which is impossible), whatever Tinubu will get in those 3 state would cut PO votes by at least 40%

Not forgetting NE= 12m
NC= 14m
SW= 18m

5. PO is not even in contention for presidency base on calculations on ground

6. The states that will definitely give Tinubu 400k or more in north are; Borno, Yobe, Kogi, kwarra, Niger

NwaMamaIwota:
lol
I pity you guys sha
bro this is 2023 and not 1993

it's good to be positive sha but analysis is analysis.
no analysis from democracy favours Tinubu that's why you guys have to bring 1993
hahahahaha
well we shall see.

TheSameGuy:
Bin content

ILEMUDA:
ATIKU ABUBAKAR has won the 2023 General Election.


I'm not in support of any candidate yet......but as a Political Scientist, the calculation and analysis favours ATIKU more than any other candidates.
No doubt
80%SW is for Tinubu
90%SE and SS Is Peter Obi Zone

But
ATIKU will drive little votes from SW, SS, NC, then I can confidently tell you that no candidate can withstand Atiku block vote from NW and NE.
You know how they vote....... they're not rational when it comes to National issues, they can be easily brainwashed by their "Leaders" to follow one road and you see all of them routine for One way..... that's how North vote....... unlike Southern Nigeria.
It gonna be massive.
If you have any contradictory view from my perspective......... you're free to air your opinion.
We're here to learn.

buckeyemedia:
If Peter Obi & The Labor Parry gets 25% statutory votes anywhere in the South West or in the whole Northern Nigeria, I will never enter Nairaland again?

ILEMUDA:
ATIKU ABUBAKAR has won the 2023 General Election.


I'm not in support of any candidate yet......but as a Political Scientist, the calculation and analysis favours ATIKU more than any other candidates.
No doubt
80%SW is for Tinubu
90%SE and SS Is Peter Obi Zone

But
ATIKU will drive little votes from SW, SS, NC, then I can confidently tell you that no candidate can withstand Atiku block vote from NW and NE.
You know how they vote....... they're not rational when it comes to National issues, they can be easily brainwashed by their "Leaders" to follow one road and you see all of them routine for One way..... that's how North vote....... unlike Southern Nigeria.
It gonna be massive.
If you have any contradictory view from my perspective......... you're free to air your opinion.
We're here to learn.

meetme01:
What if the red caps collapse their structure to LP?

The game is yet to start. December- January, let's wait and see. I know someone will sha collapse structure like what happened in Osun (Omisore)

NotBeenPaid:

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You'd want to agree with me that the voting population in the North is overestimated because kids are also made to vote over there. So BIVAS may not be used in the North.

Not leaving out the porous borders too. They were these two guys from Niger Republic and Chad supplying us water(Maruwa) in Abuja, they had the Nigerian voter's card.

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buckeyemedia:
If Peter Obi & The Labor Parry gets 25% statutory votes anywhere in the South West or in the whole Northern Nigeria, I will never enter Nairaland again?

meetme01:
What if the red caps collapse their structure to LP?

The game is yet to start. December- January, let's wait and see. I know someone will sha collapse structure like what happened in Osun (Omisore)

ILEMUDA:
It's too late to collapse structure right now.
Non of these two can withstand the heavyweight of Atiku.
Both Peter Obi and Kwankwaso are testing the Microphone against 2027.
Just note this, Peter Obi and Kwankwaso are Strategizing for 2027

ILEMUDA:
It's too late to collapse structure right now.
Non of these two can withstand the heavyweight of Atiku.
Both Peter Obi and Kwankwaso are testing the Microphone against 2027.
Just note this, Peter Obi and Kwankwaso are Strategizing for 2027