lol I predicted this.

Northerners cannot afford to split their votes into 3 Atiku Tinubu and Kwankwaso or even 4 because I heard that the Mustapha guy has some followers too.

They're going for Atiku being their best chance and due to the acceptance of Atiku in some southern region and Middle belt. (like or hate it Atiku is more acceptable in the south than tinubu while Obi is the most acceptable )

I keep laughing when people undermine Peter Obi chances they should go and check 2015 stats with almost every northern states and South West including Middle belt for Buhari yet he defeated Jonathan with like 2 million votes which kano alone gave Buhari 3 million no void votes.
now let's analyze it like this.
2015 the change tsunami was sweeping everywhere except those region like SE/SS that saw it coming just like we're already seeing this renewed hope failure.
Buhari was a sole northern candidate and with cult followers even when he was in CPC so almost every northern governor worked for him.
but today we have 3 or even 4 contestants gunning for northern votes.
Tinubu chose Muslim/Muslim ticket to stand a chance
Atiku a core north loved by the north (check 2019 stats with Buhari on ballot )
Kwankwaso with his northern followers.
even almustapha sef has followers.

So before a candidate can get from 800 to 1 million votes in kano alone but next year it won't be like that.
unless Kwankwaso collapses his structure to any major contestants trust me no candidate will be able to win any north states with anything more than 200k votes due to vote splitting and of course BIVAS.

This is what Northerns don't want that's why they're decamping massively to Atiku side if not they'll loose the ability to determine the outcome of the election next year.
well they know how to play politics.

I urge southerners to pitch their tents with Peter Obi and Middle belts too.

for now this election is still open and any major contestants can win.

That is how it go 2014

vote splitting in the north is a very huge blessing to Peter Obi candidacy and trust me areas dominated by Christians and some Muslims will still vote Peter Obi.

so undermine Obi at your own peril.

This is the reason why northerners are heavily defecting to Atiku's camp in order to avoid vote splitting

WE WANT TO SPLIT NIGERIA
SAY NO TO UNITY BEGGING

FASHOLA123:
That is how it go 2014

even in 2019 with Buhari as a sole northern candidate and incumbency the margin was not as expected.

Imagine a gross vote splitting in the north
it means whoever got a block vote in the south and middle belt wins the election.

BIVAS will play a huge role in this election.
also whoever Kwankwaso will be stepping down for (that is if he does ) will also play a huge role too.

nlfpmod Seun

I pity those undermining southern votes especially those with same faith ticket

e go clear them next year.

Southern Nigeria might determine this election as it stands.

NwaMamaIwota:
I pity those undermining southern votes especially those with same faith ticket

e go clear them next year.

Southern Nigeria might determine this election as it stands.

Nairaland Police woman, What happened in June 1993, will repeat itself in February 2023.

Tinubu has won presumably, sworn in by the Chief Judge of The Federation, all election petitions dismissed.

buckeyemedia:
Nairaland Police woman, What happened in June 1993, will repeat itself in February 2023.

Tinubu has won presumably, sworn in by the Chief Judge of The Federation, all election petitions dismissed.

lol
I pity you guys sha
bro this is 2023 and not 1993

it's good to be positive sha but analysis is analysis.
no analysis from democracy favours Tinubu that's why you guys have to bring 1993
hahahahaha
well we shall see.

NwaMamaIwota:
lol
I pity you guys sha
bro this is 2023 and not 1993

it's good to be positive sha but analysis is analysis.
no analysis from democracy favours Tinubu that's why you guys have to bring 1993
hahahahaha
well we shall see.

The joke is on you Nairaland Police Woman, for imagining that your Ipobian brethren has a chance?, I apply constructive notice on you, I believe you are aware that as much as things change, they tend to remain the same?

Atiku knows that he has lost a huge structure in the south to Obi that's he's more focused in the north especially Apc grounds in order to cover those lapses.

Meanwhile Tinubu apart from some states in the SW he's not acceptable anywhere in the south especially SE/SS
trust me Wike cannot work for Tinubu because any attempt to sell Tinubu to Rivers people will amount to his ridicule and disgrace so he won't attempt it.
he might not directly work for obi but as it stands now majority of Rivers people are Obidients.
with BIVAS and electronic transmission of data politicians has less influence on elections these days (Osun a case study )

buckeyemedia:
The joke is on you Nairaland Police Woman, for imagining that your Ipobian brethren has a chance?, I apply constructive notice on you, I believe you are aware that as much as things change, they tend to remain the same?

lol
like I said everyone has the right to stay positive but it is what it is.

Tinubu ain't getting bloc votes in the north infact Tinubu will not win the north.
mark my words.
north is standing with their own Atiku.
and vote splitting in the north favours obi more.

NwaMamaIwota:
Atiku knows that he has lost a huge structure in the south to Obi that's he's more focused in the north especially Apc grounds in order to cover those lapses.

Meanwhile Tinubu apart from some states in the SW he's not acceptable anywhere in the south especially SE/SS
trust me Wike cannot work for Tinubu because any attempt to sell Tinubu to Rivers people will amount to his ridicule and disgrace so he won't attempt it.
he might not directly work for obi but as it stands now majority of Rivers people are Obidients.
with BIVAS and electronic transmission of data politicians has less influence on elections these days (Osun a case study )

If Peter Obi & The Labor Parry gets 25% statutory votes anywhere in the South West or in the whole Northern Nigeria, I will never enter Nairaland again?

The north surely knows how to supor their own. Instead of Wike to support Peter Obi being from South East who has never produced a president, he wanted to become president himself. Now he is going about constituting Nuisance.

NwaMamaIwota:
lol
like I said everyone has the right to stay positive but it is what it is.

Tinubu ain't getting bloc votes in the north infact Tinubu will not win the north.
mark my words.
north is standing with their own Atiku.
and vote splitting in the north favours obi more.

Inspector, don’t believe the hype, Atiku will be disgraced in Northern Nigeria.

That is Tinubu’s boy, just as Bola Tinubu bought Atiku’s shares in INTELS, he will collect his suffrage in Northern Nigeria.

Atiku is finished, both politically and financially, he has gone to the United States to sell his remaining properties there, to use the money to play politics in Nigeria.

buckeyemedia:
Inspector, don’t believe the hype, Atiku will be disgraced in Northern Nigeria.

That is Tinubu’s boy, just as Bola Tinubu bought Atiku’s shares in INTELS, he will collect his suffrage in in Northern Nigeria.

Atiku is finished, he has gone to the United States to sell his remain properties there, to use the money to play politics in Nigeria.

Hahahahaha sentiments don't win elections hunny

buckeyemedia:
If Peter Obi & The Labor Parry gets 25% statutory votes anywhere in the South West or in the whole Northern Nigeria, I will never enter Nairaland again?

lol nobody cares if you enter nairaland
we shall see

NwaMamaIwota:
Hahahahaha sentiments don't win elections hunny

Like I told you earlier Inspector General, don't believe the hype like Public Enemy advised.

NwaMamaIwota:
lol nobody cares if you enter nairaland
we shall see

No different from you, IG.

NwaMamaIwota:
lol nobody cares if you enter nairaland
we shall see

U gat my blessings ad respect.

Kill these urchins.

No forget omenka ooo and moh247 the gateman

Bontafa:


U gat my blessings ad respect.

Kill these urchins.

No forget omenka ooo and moh247 the gateman

Same Ipobians shouting Biafra just barely 5 months ago, now want to be President of Zoo Nigeria?

Come and carry President. Jokers, now I understand why Nnamdi Kanu said my people no get sense.

Bontafa:


U gat my blessings ad respect.

Kill these urchins.

No forget omenka ooo and moh247 the gateman

Hahahahaha
omenka aka Corrinthians na my boy.

Moh247 is my lover

All I know is that Obi is the next president full stop!

buckeyemedia:
Same Ipobians shouting Biafra just barely 5 months ago, now want to be President of Zoo Nigeria?

Come and carry President. Jokers, now I understand why Nnamdi Kanu said my people no get sense.

the youths are coming

they have no manifestos to campaign with apart from their usual old tribalism and tribal card tactics.

But we'll remind them that tribalism won't bring back dollars to at least 400
tribalism won't bring back fuel to 95 naira
tribalism won't fix our security.
tribalism won't develop our economy.

since suffering knows no tribe or religion, since we're suffering together irrespective of our tribe and religion, it's also fair if we get it right together by sending thieves and those who thinks they can rape Nigeria TURN by TURN.
Enough is Enough!!!

2023 will be the youths vs the criminals
it won't be business as usual.

This is a very honest analysis..
Now lets see if obi can penetrate the north and get 25%..
The fight is between atiku and obi.

Obi4Ever:
All I know is that Obi is the next president full stop!

Of Biafra Republic.

NwaMamaIwota:
the youths are coming

they have no manifestos to campaign with apart from their usual old tribalism and tribal card tactics.

But we'll remind them that tribalism won't bring back dollars to at least 400
tribalism won't bring back fuel to 95 naira
tribalism won't fix our security.
tribalism won't develop our economy.

since suffering knows no tribe or religion, since we're suffering together irrespective of our tribe and religion, it's also fair if we get it right together by sending thieves and those who thinks they can rape Nigeria TURN by TURN.
Enough is Enough!!!

2023 will be the youths vs the criminals
it won't be business as usual.

Very funny indeed, same youths practicing cultism and 419 from university students, to the ones on Nairaland?

Keep deceiving yourself, waiting for Elijah to come back.

general111:
This is a very honest analysis..
Now lets see if obi can penetrate the north and get 25%..
The fight is between atiku and obi.

25% will be very hard to get but hoping on some places like Southern kaduna Taraba, Nasarawa, etc.

Ok

buckeyemedia:
Same Ipobians shouting Biafra just barely 5 months ago, now want to be President of Zoo Nigeria?

Come and carry President. Jokers, now I understand why Nnamdi Kanu said my people no get sense.

Bag of beans go and waiil

NwaMamaIwota:
I pity those undermining southern votes especially those with same faith ticket

e go clear them next year.

Southern Nigeria might determine this election as it stands.

Which Southern votes, SS, SE or SW?
I swear to almighty God there is no reasonable indices or realistic permutation that can make Peter Obi President.
Buhari was duped by Buba Galadima and others for 12yrs believing that regional votes could make him President untill he made reasonable/wise alliance.
SW and NW has the highest number of voters, the voting strength of the entire SE & SS combined can't match the votes of NW and single state in the SW.
The permutation of winning election in Nigeria is, Presidential candidate has to win with majority of votes and win 25% in at least 24 states across the 6 geopolitical zones. No way your ethno-religious bigotry can work.
Somebody, somewhere is strategically planning to just have at least 50% of votes from ruling party States outside his zone, planning on sweeping 2/3 in NC and NE in similar manner and use his zone to get majority of the to be casted votes while you are here expecting illusionary ethno-religious power to make your soon to be frustrated candidate President. This game is too big for myopic minds.