River and Oyo state: are part of the G5 PDP states where the governors pulled out their support from Atiku's camp, thereby making it open-states.
But going by the gang leader of the G5 governors, Gov. Wike and also Gov. Seyi Makinde of Oyo state recent romance with the present government and APC as a party. APC is having 55% and 88% assurance of having majority votes from both River and Oyo state respectively.

Oyo state:

The turnout for Oyo state in 2019 was less than 750,000 votes. APC scored 365,229 votes, while PdP got 366,690.
With the performance of the APC government and the TInubu candidacy, the APC could still get the 400,000 votes. However, Labour party would take a huge chunk of PDP votes and any new votes.

Rivers State:

The turn out for Rivers state in 2019 was less the 550,000 votes. APC got 150k votes, while PDP got 470k votes.
With the APC Muslim-Muslim ticket and the obvious positioning of major religious leaders in Portharcourt, APC might score less then 100k votes.
The fact that APC has no candidates in the state, and Amaechi's lack of interest to work for Tinubu also makes it difficult for them.
Except Wike works for Tinubu, only then can APC score up to 300k votes.
PDP would get a high chunk of the votes, but not up to 400k votes as LP would take most of their voters and any new voters.

Lagos- Home of the main presidential candidate Bola Tinubu, with 7million + voters registration. We should be expecting atleast 5million voters turnout in the state. It is all about protection of Pride this time. Going by Tinubu's political influence and the rate at which all opposition party suppporters in the state are aligning with his ambition. APC should be expecting 78% of the votes. That should be like approximately 4million votes from the 5million expected votes turn-out up for grab.

Lagos This is the most hilarious analysis I've seen and I'm surprised it's on front page. Lagos has never had 5 million voters turn out.

In fact in 2019, the total votes was just over a million. APC scored 580,825, while PDP scored 448,015.
With Tinubu in the race and if tribe plays a role in this election, APC might still get over 500k votes. However, PDP will lose the southern votes to LP, and might score about 200,000.
Labour Party can get up to 500k votes depending on turnout (the higher the turnout, the more votes LP will get).

Kastina - Home of President Buhari, the majority votes here is non-negotiable. In 2019, out of 1.6m+ votes, Buhari took 1.2m+.
With buhari as the Chairman presidential campaign council for APC this time around, and also remember he made a pledge to be at the fore-front of it all. With his influence, APC should be expecting same outcome - over 85% of the votes are in the bag for APC already in thestate.

Kastina voter turnout in 2019 was over 1.5 million. But we all know it's the Buhari factor and Buhari has since lost his charm due to the insecurity in the state.

The votes in kastina will be split between APC, PDP, NNPP and LP taking the southern votes.
It's still unclear who will take the most votes amongst APC, PDP and NNPP, but the APC is favourite to get at least 40-50% because of the APC governor. If turnout remains the same, that will be 750,000 votes (less than the 2019 numbers).

Kaduna :will be a tight contest between PDP and APC. But with the political influence of El'rufai, and also with El'rufai knowing that him clinging on to the power he wields over there is paramount and also delivering Kaduna for Tinubu is all he have got left. 65% of the votes is expected from the state for APC.

Kaduna: the politics in Kaduna today is more of a Christian-muslim/ Southern - northern Kaduna politics, thanks to Elrufai's insistence on a Muslim Muslim ticket.
The turnout for Kaduna in 2019 was over 1.6 million with APC getting almost a million votes and PDP getting over 600k.
However, the coming of Labour party and Datti Ahmed into the race will play a surprising role.

The Peter Obi ticket has given the southern Kaduna people an alternative to PDP. So Peter Obi will likely pick a lot of votes in southern Kaduna. However, northern Kaduna will be shared between the trio of APC, PDP and NNPP, with APC taking a large share.
ApC will definitely not reach 900k this time. Their maximum vote from Kaduna will not exceed 500k.

Kano votes will be shared between 3 parties - PDP , APC and NNPP. It is surely going to end up with APC 40% - PDP 35% and NNPP - 25% of the total votes cast.

Kano is another deciding state that wil be shared by APC, PDP and NNPP. Although Peter Obi is trying to make inroads into the state, he won't get as many votes as required.

Kano gave about 1.8 million votes in 2019, with APC getting over 1.4 million and PDP about 450k.
Surprisingly, Kwakwanso supported Atiku in 2019, yet PDP got such low numbers. Then 2 weeks later, the PDP almost won the Kano gubernatorial election.
With Kwakwanso himself on the ballot this time, things will be very different.

APC members will vote for APC while the remaining people will vote for NNPP and PDP. APC is unlikely to get their 2019 numbers in Kano, however, they can get as much as 600k votes depending on turnouts.

Conclusion
So I'm essence, APC will likely only get about 2.8 million votes from the big 6 states. I focused on APC because their voters are more traditional.
The votes for PDP, LP and NNPP is quite unpredictable at the moment.

Rounding up everything,i found out you will be obidient someday

deNet:
Rounding up off everything,i found out you will be obidient someday

Off

Dey don come again with their jaundiced analysis wey never work for even 10 minutes since 1900.

God bless the incoming president and C-in-C of the Armed Forces of the Fed Rep of Nigeria, the great Asiwaju of Nigeria. Non Nigerian can never smell my country's seat of power, God forbid.

God bless Nigeria my beloved country Nigeria.
God bless Nigerians
God bless SW SS NW NE and NC.

Even in Benue state

LeoDeKing:
I write trash

Do you feel like crying yet?

Be ready for a big shocker

Nice analysis from ,so both of you came to the same conclusion that arc will get more votes in the 6 states

loo

Thifnubu remains a druggie and frail Deadwood. God forbid that a drug lord will rule Nigeria.

Now this is a more realistic analysis.

The Kim kardsahian sisters(The KKK states of kano,kastina and Kaduna) will definitely be shared by PDP,APC and NNPP
Any votes they give us for kastina and kano we can manage.
LP is likely to take 30 percent from Kaduna.

That Lagos votes we all die day.
LP will pack as Much as they can.
Of course peter obi will win rivers state.

The state in south south I think he might not win is bayelsa or perhaps delta(I am bringing the okowa is our brother sentiments).
He will get 25 percent in the remaining southwest states except osun and Ogun.

Evanderbright:
Now this is a more realistic analysis.

The Kim kardsahian sisters(The KKK states of kano,kastina and Kaduna) will definitely be shared by PDP,APC and NNPP
Any votes they give us for kastina and kano we can manage.
LP is likely to take 30 percent from Kaduna.

That Lagos votes we all die day.
LP will pack as Much as they can.
Of course peter obi will win rivers state.

The state in south south I think he might not win is bayelsa or perhaps delta(I am bringing the okowa is our brother sentiments).
He will get 25 percent in the remaining southwest states except osun and Ogun.

..

Delta is lp. Even pdp men will tell to help them for gubernatorial elections and leave presidency for obi