₦airaland Forum

This is how I expect the figures to pan out,
Considering ethnicity, religious sentiments and competence of candidates. This prediction is made with hope that BVAS will be used effectively to forestall overvoting.

1. Southeast: Peter obi will win here in a landslide for ethnicity, religious and competence reasons.
Peter Obi 80%
Others 20%

2. Southsouth: Peter obi will win southsouth but will not be as much as he will win in southeast for the fact that he’s the most popular candidate in the south.

Peter obi: 55%
Atiku: 25%
Others: 20%

3. Southwest: Tinubu will win southwest for ethnic reasons but his competence and antecedents may deter him from winning big . The Muslim-Muslim ticket may also affect his ability to get a big margin.

Tinubu: 45%
Peter Obi: 30%
Atiku : 15%
Others: 10%

4. Northcentral: This region is between ATiku and Peter obi. Peter obi will get plenty votes in Abuja because people here are enlightened, enlightened people almost always want Peter Obi. He will also most likely win Benue,
Plateau and get plenty votes in Nasarawa because of religion. ATiku will most likely get votes from Fulani and Hausa communities in Northcentral. Tinubu will win kwara and get plenty votes in Niger state.

Peter obi: 40%
Atiku: 30%
Tinubu: 20%
Kwankwanso: 10%

5. Northwest: This is predominantly a Fulani and Hausa speaking region and whether or not we like it, they will vote massively for their brothers. Kwankwanso will do very well in Kano and might even win there. ATiku will win this region while APC structure will help Tinubu steal some votes but it won’t be able to outweigh tribal sentiments.

Atiku: 50%
Tinubu: 25%
Kwankwanso: 20%
Others: 5%

6. Northeast: Same as northwest. Everything that happened in northwest will happen here expect from Borno state.

Atiku : 50%
Tinubu: 30%
Kwankwanso: 15%
Others: 5%


Peter Obi will have more numbers, ATiku will get more spread, albeit none will be able to get 25% in 24 states. Hence, Peter obi and Atiku wil battle in a rerun.

Workch:
This is how I expect the figures to pan out,
Considering ethnicity, religious sentiments and competence of candidates. This prediction is made with hope that BVAS will be used effectively to forestall overvoting.

1. Southeast: Peter obi will win here in a landslide for ethnicity, religious and competence reasons.
Peter Obi 80%
Others 20%

2. Southsouth: Peter obi will win southsouth but will not be as much as he will win in southeast for the fact that he’s the most popular candidate in the south.

Peter obi: 55%
Atiku: 25%
Others: 20%

3. Southwest: Tinubu will win southwest for ethnic reasons but his competence and antecedents may deter him from winning big . The Muslim-Muslim ticket may also affect his ability to get a big margin.

Tinubu: 45%
Peter Obi: 30%
Atiku : 15%
Others: 10%

4. Northcentral: This region is between ATiku and Peter obi. Peter obi will get plenty votes in Abuja because people here are enlightened, enlightened people almost always want Peter Obi. He will also most likely win Benue,
Plateau and get plenty votes in Nasarawa because of religion. ATiku will most likely get votes from Fulani and Hausa communities in Northcentral. Tinubu will win kwara and get plenty votes in Niger state.

Peter obi: 40%
Atiku: 30%
Tinubu: 20%
Kwankwanso: 10%

5. Northwest: This is predominantly a Fulani and Hausa speaking region and whether or not we like it, they will vote massively for their brothers. Kwankwanso will do very well in Kano and might even win there. ATiku will win this region while APC structure will help Tinubu steal some votes but it won’t be able to outweigh tribal sentiments.

Atiku: 50%
Tinubu: 25%
Kwankwanso: 20%
Others: 5%

6. Northeast: Same as northwest. Everything that happened in northwest will happen here expect from Borno state.

Atiku : 50%
Tinubu: 30%
Kwankwanso: 15%
Others: 5%


Peter Obi will have more numbers, ATiku will get more spread, albeit none will be able to get 25% in 24 states. Hence, Peter obi and Atiku wil battle in a rerun.

You tried but Obi will win at least, one state in the S/W. I live here so I know. Tinubu isn't so popular in the SW as you think. His cousin and incumbent governor cum former manager of his company lost to the pdp in his home state despite wasting billions of lagos money on voters, hope you know.

People would rather vote personality and not party in the SW next year. The result of elections next year will be so amazing. Atiku cannot win kaduna. Datti-Baba Ahmed is a fulani man and more popular amongst the learned and youths. He's from the northern part of kaduna where he's also well accepted and popular. Southern kaduna is for obi.

I disagree with Northcentral, ATiku doesn’t really have a base there.

Obi will win plateau, Benue, nasarawa and Abuja, others will battle for the remaining. I see obi getting more then 50%

Your analysis is more realistic...and also obi is winning in southern kaduna, he'll also do handsomely well in plateau state.

FatherOfJesus:
I disagree with Northcentral, ATiku doesn’t really have a base there.

Obi will win plateau, Benue, nasarawa and Abuja, others will battle for the remaining. I see obi getting more then 50%

and taraba, what happens in Benue and plateau will repeat itself in taraba

Obidients don't give shishi. But we sabi give real pain to urchins. APC had to employ more urchins because we rendered them useless.

Saao:
and taraba, what happens in Benue and plateau will repeat itself in taraba

I don’t think so, Jalingo is predominately A Fulani enclave.
Although we have Christians in Taraba, however they are predominantly in the Wukari/southern region of Taraba. Taraba central and north are predominantly Fulanis and they will be voting for ATiku. Obi might be second but he cannot win here

FatherOfJesus:
I don’t think so, Jalingo is predominately A Fulani enclave.
Although we have Christians in Taraba, however they are predominantly in the Wukari/southern region of Taraba. Taraba central and north are predominantly Fulanis and they will be voting for ATiku. Obi might be second but he cannot win here

population of Christians in taraba are higher than that of Fulani/housas,Christians determine who become governor in taraba. Anyway its a prediction, anything can happen

Saao:
population of Christians in taraba is higher than that of Fulani/housas,Christians determine who become governor in taraba. Anyway its a prediction, anything can happen

if you say so

You too generous to Obi in SE/SS/SW/NC but underrate him in NE.
You are too harsh on Tinubu in the SW, I expect him to get 55% there.

My rough estimate
SE: PO 68% Atiku 20% BAT 10% others 2%
SS: PO 45% Atiku 35% BAT 18% others 2%
SW:PO 20% Atiku 20% BAT 58% others 2%
NC: PO 30% Atiku 35% BAT 29% others 6%
NE: PO 10% Atiku 45% BAT 35% others 10%
NW: PO 5% Atiku 50% BAT 30% others 15%

Only person to win without run_off is Atiku.
A run_off between PO & Atiku very likely

Comical thread

[quote author=majole post=119039266]You too generous to Obi in SE/SS/SW/NC but underrate him in NE.
You are too harsh on Tinubu in the SW, I expect him to get 55% there.

My rough estimate
SE: PO 68% Atiku 20% BAT 10% others 2%
SS: PO 45% Atiku 35% BAT 18% others 2%
SW:PO 20% Atiku 20% BAT 58% others 2%
NC: PO 30% Atiku 35% BAT 29% others 6%
NE: PO 10% Atiku 45% BAT 35% others 10%
NW: PO 5% Atiku 50% BAT 30% others 15%

Only person to win without run_off is Atiku.
A run_off between PO & Atiku very likely


Did you say 68% for Obi in the South East? Let's stop this joke. Obi is at least 85% in the East (I said at least). Bookmark this comment for future reference. Obi will get up to 65% in the South South. He will get at least 50% in North Central. Tinubu will win the West with a little margin but Obi must win at least a state in the West. I know the state already but won't mention it here. And if his popularity keeps growing as it is doing in the West now, then he might win up to 3 states. As for North West and Norh East, na Atiku get am.

OP.. congratulations on your gibberish statistics, just like obi!..
let me burst your brain... if Obi win one state na rigging...
the east is not even sure of election because of the unrest in the region,.. and that’s obi strongholds... you guys are only shouting Kristen votes for obi... but have you people forgot that is not every Kristen that will vote for obi?
And you people as totally underestimated the Muslim’s,.. don’t forget, their population is far more than the christians in Nigeria,.. Muslim’s are sleeping giant in this election,..
Honestly the Muslim Muslim Tinubu ticket is not a miss...
I and my crew are voting for competent..
February is almost here,... if obi win one state,.. come here and quote me!

untill then

beelon1020:
OP.. congratulations on your gibberish statistics, just like obi!..
let me burst your brain... if Obi win one state na rigging...
the east is not even sure of election because of the unrest in the region,.. and that’s obi strongholds... you guys are only shouting Kristen votes for obi... but have you people forgot that is not every Kristen that will vote for obi?
And you people as totally underestimated the Muslim’s,.. don’t forget, their population is far more than the christians in Nigeria,.. Muslim’s are sleeping giant in this election,..
Honestly the Muslim Muslim Tinubu ticket is not a miss...
I and my crew are voting for competent..
February is almost here,... if obi win one state,.. come here and quote me!

As a thiefnubuu agbado urchin,can u just comment without weeping?

Eriokanmi:
You tried but Obi will win at least, one state in the S/W. I live here so I know. Tinubu isn't so popular in the SW as you think. His cousin and incumbent governor cum former manager of his company lost to the pdp in his home state despite wasting billions of lagos money on voters, hope you know.

People would rather vote personality and not party in the SW next year. The result of elections next year will be so amazing. Atiku cannot win kaduna. Datti-Baba Ahmed is a fulani man and more popular amongst the learned and youths he's from the northern part of kaduna where he's also well accepted and popular. Southern kaduna is for obi.

I am very sure Obi with this BVAS will win Lagos by a wide margin. I can bet on that with anybody that wants to

beelon1020:
OP.. congratulations on your gibberish statistics, just like obi!..
let me burst your brain... if Obi win one state na rigging...
the east is not even sure of election because of the unrest in the region,.. and that’s obi strongholds... you guys are only shouting Kristen votes for obi... but have you people forgot that is not every Kristen that will vote for obi?
And you people as totally underestimated the Muslim’s,.. don’t forget, their population is far more than the christians in Nigeria,.. Muslim’s are sleeping giant in this election,..
Honestly the Muslim Muslim Tinubu ticket is not a miss...
I and my crew are voting for competent..
February is almost here,... if obi win one state,.. come here and quote me!

If you believe that there are more Muslims in Nigeria than Christians, then you be Olodo. I know you are a Muslim but stop deceiving yourself with your fake statistics.

PureMe01:
As a thiefnubuu agbado urchin,can u just comment without weeping?

Son of hate, peeps are dropping thoughts and forecast... so only mine you could come for?.. wait.. I get your obingo madness cure here...
Na ogun go chop that your brainless skull, thunder fire that your yeye osu head!.. goat!

Nyamiri always yarning dust. Obi will win 80% in his region while Atiku and Tinubu will win less.

You will soon know your master. Obi won’t even win Anambra. He won’t win SS. YOU WILL know what politics is about soon.

beelon1020:
Son of hate, peeps are dropping thoughts and forecast... so only mine you could come for?.. wait.. I get your obingo madness cure here...
Na ogun go chop that your brainless skull, thunder fire that your yeye osu head!.. goat!

Greet your co agbado urchins for Una WhatsApp group when u get there

PureMe01:
Greet your co agbado urchins for Una WhatsApp group when u get there

Mr Obingo na ogun go chop that your mouth! *spit*

beelon1020:
Mr Obingo na ogun go chop that your mouth! *spit*

Ogun don already render you useless

Waterysperm:
If you believe that there are more Muslims in Nigeria than Christians, then you be Olodo. I know you are a Muslim but stop deceiving yourself with your fake statistics.

Lol... hahahaha... see this mr watery sperm!.. abeg use google... you be correct confirmed proper olodo!
He go shock all of una for February!

PureMe01:
Ogun don already render you useless

Lol.. ogun na my brother na.. abi obingo na ogun food na...

Says an Obi supporter. I think you should leave these predictions to the apolitical folks

Workch:
This is how I expect the figures to pan out,
Considering ethnicity, religious sentiments and competence of candidates. This prediction is made with hope that BVAS will be used effectively to forestall overvoting.

1. Southeast: Peter obi will win here in a landslide for ethnicity, religious and competence reasons.
Peter Obi 80%
Others 20%

2. Southsouth: Peter obi will win southsouth but will not be as much as he will win in southeast for the fact that he’s the most popular candidate in the south.

Peter obi: 55%
Atiku: 25%
Others: 20%

3. Southwest: Tinubu will win southwest for ethnic reasons but his competence and antecedents may deter him from winning big . The Muslim-Muslim ticket may also affect his ability to get a big margin.

Tinubu: 45%
Peter Obi: 30%
Atiku : 15%
Others: 10%

4. Northcentral: This region is between ATiku and Peter obi. Peter obi will get plenty votes in Abuja because people here are enlightened, enlightened people almost always want Peter Obi. He will also most likely win Benue,
Plateau and get plenty votes in Nasarawa because of religion. ATiku will most likely get votes from Fulani and Hausa communities in Northcentral. Tinubu will win kwara and get plenty votes in Niger state.

Peter obi: 40%
Atiku: 30%
Tinubu: 20%
Kwankwanso: 10%

5. Northwest: This is predominantly a Fulani and Hausa speaking region and whether or not we like it, they will vote massively for their brothers. Kwankwanso will do very well in Kano and might even win there. ATiku will win this region while APC structure will help Tinubu steal some votes but it won’t be able to outweigh tribal sentiments.

Atiku: 50%
Tinubu: 25%
Kwankwanso: 20%
Others: 5%

6. Northeast: Same as northwest. Everything that happened in northwest will happen here expect from Borno state.

Atiku : 50%
Tinubu: 30%
Kwankwanso: 15%
Others: 5%


Peter Obi will have more numbers, ATiku will get more spread, albeit none will be able to get 25% in 24 states. Hence, Peter obi and Atiku wil battle in a rerun.

fair predictions, although I feel Obi will do better than you predicted in both the SS and NC.

beelon1020:
Mr Obingo na ogun go chop that your mouth! *spit*

Next time type without crying. Ode!!!

Britishpea:
Nyamiri always yarning dust. Obi will win 80% in his region while Atiku and Tinubu will win less.

You will soon know your master. Obi won’t even win Anambra. He won’t win SS. YOU WILL know what politics is about soon.

Is the reason why Tinubu and ATiku won’t have landslide votes in their regions not obvious?

Atiku no get hope

aariwa:
I am very sure Obi with this BVAS will win Lagos by a wide margin. I can bet on that with anybody that wants to

I just didn't want to invoke the anger of urchins. I'd have dropped some shockers on Lagos elections. Forget the forced crowd with printed t-shirts you see people wear in each rally. They've stolen so much. Osun rally was much more intimidating. Buses gathered at berger in lagos numbering over 50, waiting for others to meet them before moving to oshogbo together. Those buses were chartered to transport uniform apc members to osun to campaign for oyetola. They spent billions. The people of osun still did justice on the election day.

My wife owns a shop in the heart of lagos. This woman was forced to close her shop or face sanctions, just to attend a rally. Imagine. People are wiser now.

majole:
You too generous to Obi in SE/SS/SW/NC but underrate him in NE.
You are too harsh on Tinubu in the SW, I expect him to get 55% there.

My rough estimate
SE: PO 68% Atiku 20% BAT 10% others 2%
SS: PO 45% Atiku 35% BAT 18% others 2%
SW:PO 20% Atiku 20% BAT 58% others 2%
NC: PO 30% Atiku 35% BAT 29% others 6%
NE: PO 10% Atiku 45% BAT 35% others 10%
NW: PO 5% Atiku 50% BAT 30% others 15%

Only person to win without run_off is Atiku.
A run_off between PO & Atiku very likely

Se; lp 65% pdp 18% apc 17%
Ss: lp 35% pdp 40% apc 25%
Sw: lp 20% pdp 20% apc 60%
Nc : lp 35% pdp 25% apc 35% others 5%
Nw: lp 5% pdp 40% apc 40% others 15%
Ne: lp 10% pdp 40% apc 40% others 10%

Workch:
This is how I expect the figures to pan out,
Considering ethnicity, religious sentiments and competence of candidates. This prediction is made with hope that BVAS will be used effectively to forestall overvoting.

1. Southeast: Peter obi will win here in a landslide for ethnicity, religious and competence reasons.
Peter Obi 80%
Others 20%

2. Southsouth: Peter obi will win southsouth but will not be as much as he will win in southeast for the fact that he’s the most popular candidate in the south.

Peter obi: 55%
Atiku: 25%
Others: 20%

3. Southwest: Tinubu will win southwest for ethnic reasons but his competence and antecedents may deter him from winning big . The Muslim-Muslim ticket may also affect his ability to get a big margin.

Tinubu: 45%
Peter Obi: 30%
Atiku : 15%
Others: 10%

4. Northcentral: This region is between ATiku and Peter obi. Peter obi will get plenty votes in Abuja because people here are enlightened, enlightened people almost always want Peter Obi. He will also most likely win Benue,
Plateau and get plenty votes in Nasarawa because of religion. ATiku will most likely get votes from Fulani and Hausa communities in Northcentral. Tinubu will win kwara and get plenty votes in Niger state.

Peter obi: 40%
Atiku: 30%
Tinubu: 20%
Kwankwanso: 10%

5. Northwest: This is predominantly a Fulani and Hausa speaking region and whether or not we like it, they will vote massively for their brothers. Kwankwanso will do very well in Kano and might even win there. ATiku will win this region while APC structure will help Tinubu steal some votes but it won’t be able to outweigh tribal sentiments.

Atiku: 50%
Tinubu: 25%
Kwankwanso: 20%
Others: 5%

6. Northeast: Same as northwest. Everything that happened in northwest will happen here expect from Borno state.

Atiku : 50%
Tinubu: 30%
Kwankwanso: 15%
Others: 5%


Peter Obi will have more numbers, ATiku will get more spread, albeit none will be able to get 25% in 24 states. Hence, Peter obi and Atiku wil battle in a rerun.

Biased analysis made in the heat of restlessness.tinubu will get nothing less than 60% in sw,obi will fail woefully outside lagos.obi can't win ss,it will be evenly divided.
Nc is between tinubu and obi.tinubu is sure of kwara and kogi,obi has benue.where does atiku have?
Nw will be tight.atiku is sure of just sokoto.it will be divided. Same in ne..

Tinubu will get 25% in ebonyi and imo