₦airaland Forum

garfield1:
Buhari,gej and yaradua won because they primarily contested on a strong party and secondly were strong in 4 regions

The dynamics has changed
In 2007, it was basically a northern affairs, yaradua vs buhari vs Atiku
In 2011 and 2015, it was north vs south. In 2011, GEJ enjoyed a united south and in 2015, Buhari ebjoyed a united North
2023 is very different

rippa:
This election is different
In 2011 we had only Buhari from the north and Jonathan from the south
Jonathan was able to win because the entire south queued behind him, so by then needing just few states from the north to emerge.
Now, Tinubu doesn't have the entire south behind him, there is Atiku and kwakwanso fighting for the same northerner's votes he is fighting for too.
Majority of the North will vote Atiku.
The reason GEJ lost 2015 election was because the south west pulled away from him.
So I'm still thinking where Tinubu will get his votes from?

God bless you.
I keep telling people the same thing. Where will Tinubu get his votes? The core north will always support their own. We saw it with shekarau in 2011, we saw it with Buhari in 2003 & 2007. The votes from the southwest votes alone can't make him president.

rippa:
The dynamics has changed
In 2007, it was basically a northern affairs, yaradua vs buhari vs Atiku
In 2011 and 2015, it was north vs south. In 2011, GEJ enjoyed a united south and in 2015, Buhari ebjoyed a united North
2023 is very different

Yes,thats why I modified my permutation.2023 will be like 1979,whoever wins his region heavily and does well in others wins

JoeNL22:
Lol.....because you don't see it doesn't mean it's not happening

Oga,seeing is believing.until it is verified by reliable sources,we can't believe it.you obi fans are too naive

garfield1:
Oga,seeing is believing.until it is verified by reliable sources,we can't believe it.you obi fans are too naive

And you urchins are too dumb to smell the coffee.

JoeNL22:
Says who?......who told you that the sw don't like igbos?, what evidence do you have to prove your assumptions?. Lol....obi will get more than 40% from all the states you mentioned in the south west. Obi is more nationally accepted than kwankwanso, hence it will reflect in the core north. And obi will beat Tinubu in NC. NC will likely vote: 49%-obi, 17%-Atiku, 17%-KWANKWANSO, 17%-Tinubu. Lol......did you say 25% in 4 states in the ss & se....... . Lol!......if you believe Tinubu will get 25% from the se/ss. Obi will definitely get 25% from the NW & NE. But obi can get 40% from Lagos. Tinubu can't get 10% from Anambra. So how does Tinubu want to win this elections.......

Atiku got 10% from katsina but buhari couldn't get 5% from anambra but won.in the south,it has gone tribal.IBO's will vote obi,yorubas go with tinubu.you saw ekiti and osun elections,labour couldn't even get 1%.labour and pdp are sharing from same support base in sw and now it is divided.historically right from 1960,yorubas have voted massively for yorubas.if yorubas did not vote axikiwe,is it obi they will vote? Obi will get 40% in lagos but that's where it ends.
Obi cannot win north central.even if he wins,it will be very narrowly.obi is only strong in plateau and benue abd to an extent nasarawa abd fct which tinubu will also do well but obi is very weak in kogi,kwara,niger so you see why obi can't win nc...
Tinubu can get 25% inse ss because apc is very strong there,has popular candidates who cab attract votes.they have the ability to rig or suppress labour votes but obi and labour cannot try that in sokoto or borno.they dont have that capacity.do you know any strong lp member that can win his ward in yobe? I can mention ten apc members that deliver their wards in crs.bvas will reduce rigging but will not stop it and this will allow apc to get some votes in se/ss esp in rural areas...both atiku and tinubu got more crowd than obi in the east.thats the power of structure and mobilization.they won't win but can buy or influence votes but obi can't do same.theres hunger and a lot of obi fans will betray him.
Obi is popular mostly in the south not in the core north.kwankwaso will beat him in the north west.elections is beyond popularity.you need money,men,resources,strong party.despite buhari popularity,he couldn't win with a weak party and empty account.he only won after his party became stronger,got resources from tinubu and amechi.so obi cannot win with a weak labour party without candidates in many states

JoeNL22:
And you urchins are too dumb to smell the coffee.

Zombidirnts are always talking childishly and insulting people.if you are in court,what will be your proof? Don't disgrace yourself

SmartPolician:
There's no phrase like core North.
Specify the region because it's clear that Jonathan lost in all the NE and NW states.

I don't know if it's tribalism or lack of education, but the NE and NW haven't been known to vote for politicians from the South. Every politician from the South should focus on north central.

PS: Imo State voting strength dropped significantly. Imo had the second-biggest voting block in the SE and SS after Rivers.

Taraba, Adamawa are in South East Abi? Mtcheeew

Oga check your results again.

If Jonathan had gotten zero votes in all of North-East and North-West he would have scored 17,316,841 in the elections and would have gotten at least 25% in 23 states plus Abuja to make it 24. Which effectively would have still made him the winner.

This shows that Jonathan in 2011 would have won without votes from North-East and North-West. The votes he got from those two geo-political zones were actually not relevant to him winning the 2011 election.

garfield1:
Zombidirnts are always talking childishly and insulting people.if you are in court,what will be your proof? Don't disgrace yourself

Neither should you

lucro:
Oga check your results again.

If Jonathan had gotten zero votes in all of North-East and North-West he would have scored 17,316,841 in the elections and would have gotten at least 25% in 23 states plus Abuja to make it 24. Which effectively would have still made him the winner.

This shows that Jonathan in 2011 would have won without votes from North-East and North-West. The votes he got from those two geo-political zones were actually not relevant to him winning the 2011 election.

Exactly......the core north alone can and never make you a president.

garfield1:
Atiku got 10% from katsina but buhari couldn't get 5% from anambra but won.in the south,it has gone tribal.IBO's will vote obi,yorubas go with tinubu.you saw ekiti and osun elections,labour couldn't even get 1%.labour and pdp are sharing from same support base in sw and now it is divided.historically right from 1960,yorubas have voted massively for yorubas.if yorubas did not vote axikiwe,is it obi they will vote? Obi will get 40% in lagos but that's where it ends.
Obi cannot win north central.even if he wins,it will be very narrowly.obi is only strong in plateau and benue abd to an extent nasarawa abd fct which tinubu will also do well but obi is very weak in kogi,kwara,niger so you see why obi can't win nc...
Tinubu can get 25% inse ss because apc is very strong there,has popular candidates who cab attract votes.they have the ability to rig or suppress labour votes but obi and labour cannot try that in sokoto or borno.they dont have that capacity.do you know any strong lp member that can win his ward in yobe? I can mention ten apc members that deliver their wards in crs.bvas will reduce rigging but will not stop it and this will allow apc to get some votes in se/ss esp in rural areas...both atiku and tinubu got more crowd than obi in the east.thats the power of structure and mobilization.they won't win but can buy or influence votes but obi can't do same.theres hunger and a lot of obi fans will betray him.
Obi is popular mostly in the south not in the core north.kwankwaso will beat him in the north west.elections is beyond popularity.you need money,men,resources,strong party.despite buhari popularity,he couldn't win with a weak party and empty account.he only won after his party became stronger,got resources from tinubu and amechi.so obi cannot win with a weak labour party without candidates in many states

If obi can get 40% in Lagos. Then he can get at least 25% anywhere in the southwest. If you believe Tinubu can get 25% from the southeast and you don't believe obi will get 25% from the core north. Then you are outrightly delusional. A Muslim can't replace a Muslim, talkless of a Muslim-Muslim ticket. What Tinubu could not do with Atiku in 2007 and buhari in 2011 and 2015, he now wants to do it in 2023. Because of what?, 1993 is 2023?. Times have changed, get use to it.

The people of SE, SS, SW and NC are too exposed to be influenced by politicians irrespective of the political parties involved . They know their left and right when it comes to voting for a right candidate during election ..

This is the more reasons why some unpopular/unknown political parties are controlling some positions at the National Assembly apart from PDP and APC, even though some of them defected to bigger parties after election. What this means is that these four regions have an independent minds of their own

But this not applicable in the NE and NW where they are heavily influenced by Tribal and religious affiliations.. Even PDP was controlling Kastina state and other NE and NW ststes till 2015... The then PDP governors couldn't deliver their states, it was a total swap of goverment..
Nat chairman of then PDP Adamu Muazu couldn't deliver his Bauchi state too..

Stop hoping and be hiding your candidate in structure because in the SE, SS, SW and MB/NC no candidate would be saved by structure but personality during this presidential election. Then in NE and NW, tribal and religious affiliations have a lot of role to play

Many southerners are voting all parties at different levels during General election..

Some of us are voting..
PDP at house assembly level
APC at Reps level
PDP at Senate level
APGA at Governorship level
Labour Party at presidential level..

you see my I said, this 2023 will be different?

JoeNL22:
Not for Tinubu. 35% is too small. Why? Because that's where his hope of getting bloc votes lies in the core north. He needs 70% from the core north to win this elections. The southwest is too liberal to give me bloc votes. SE & SS is no go area. Remember Atiku is there.
Tinubu will battle Atiku in the core north. Tinubu will battle Obi in the SE & SS. The NC is 50-50. So he needs the overwhelming support(@70%) of the core north to win this elections

Some of you truly need to take out time to study Nigeria politics very well. Who told you the south west is too liberal to give bloc votes? Go and check your history very well, anytime a Yoruba son is on the ballot, it's a clean sweep of the entire south west. They're only liberal when they don't have their son on the ballot. Go and check previous presidential results with a Yoruba son on the ballot.


By the way, I doubt if you know what 70perc means in mathematics. If you do, you won't use it in the context you did. 70perc of NW and NE votes is 26.4million. Poor mathematics student! Mtcheeew.....

kcnwaigbo:
None of the candidates can win 4 regions.You don't even need to win four regions to win the 2023 elections as it will be a very tight four horse race

It's not four horse race. It's two horse race between Tinubu and Atiku. Others don't have the political depth. They're just spoilers.

Indispensable85:
Some of you truly need to take out time to study Nigeria politics very well. Who told you the south west is too liberal to give bloc votes? Go and check your history very well, anytime a Yoruba son is on the ballot, it's a clean sweep of the entire south west. They're only liberal when they don't have their son on the ballot. Go and check previous presidential results with a Yoruba son on the ballot.


By the way, I doubt if you know what 70perc means in mathematics. If you do, you won't use it in the context you did. 70perc of NW and NE votes is 26.4million. Poor mathematics student! Mtcheeew.....

I laugh at you people alot.

You claim to know politics, but yet you won't put your money where your mouth is.
I told someone earlier this year. That If Atiku and Obi, campaign in Ekiti, Apc won't win the elections, but they weren't on ground in Ekiti, and I know you know who won. I told the dude the same thing with Osun. He said it's a lie. Well....I guess you also know the results too. Judging from your naive comment, it is clear you don't understand politics is a game. You think its about your achievements or your structure you will use to win elections. Gej had all the structure in 2015, yet he couldn't win same with Atiku in 2019, Same with Osun governor, Ekiti, is no exception, what structures do SDP have in Ekiti state in which Segun oni ran to become 2nd?. Did we vote buhari because of his achievements in 2015? Or OBJ in 2003 & 1999?. You Apc supporters are truly delusional. When the sw gave block votes to their son in 1999 was their religious intolerance in that 1999?, was their boko haram? Yet you want to compare 1999 elections with 2023 elections. The narrative have changed. It will be naive of you not to understand that fact. I stand on the fact that if Tinubu doesn't win the north with a landslide. He can't win the elections. Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwanso are fighting for the core north. SE, SS, SW & NC aren't fully behind Tinubu. So how doesn't want to win, If he doesn't get the full backing of the core north?

JoeNL22:
Neither should you

Until theres tangible evidence from kwankwaso, it is like him saying he is a trillion aire

Superwave16320:
But Peter Obi will neither win a single state in the NC nor come second in any of them. You can take that to the bank, even if he labours to his death. Even with Ortom endorsement Obi will not win Benue or come second both APC n PDP will trash him there.

They won't! Obi will get at least 49% of the total votes cast from The north central. You can take that to the Cbn. They are waiting for you

JoeNL22:
If obi can get 40% in Lagos. Then he can get at least 25% anywhere in the southwest. If you believe Tinubu can get 25% from the southeast and you don't believe obi will get 25% from the core north. Then you are outrightly delusional. A Muslim can't replace a Muslim, talkless of a Muslim-Muslim ticket. What Tinubu could not do with Atiku in 2007 and buhari in 2011 and 2015, he now wants to do it in 2023. Because of what?, 1993 is 2023?. Times have changed, get use to it.

The people of SE, SS, SW and NC are too exposed to be influenced by politicians irrespective of the political parties involved . They know their left and right when it comes to voting for a right candidate during election ..

This is the more reasons why some unpopular/unknown political parties are controlling some positions at the National Assembly apart from PDP and APC, even though some of them defected to bigger parties after election. What this means is that these four regions have an independent minds of their own

But this not applicable in the NE and NW where they are heavily influenced by Tribal and religious affiliations.. Even PDP was controlling Kastina state and other NE and NW ststes till 2015... The then PDP governors couldn't deliver their states, it was a total swap of goverment..
Nat chairman of then PDP Adamu Muazu couldn't deliver his Bauchi state too..

Stop hoping and be hiding your candidate in structure because in the SE, SS, SW and MB/NC no candidate would be saved by structure but personality during this presidential election. Then in NE and NW, tribal and religious affiliations have a lot of role to play

Many southerners are voting all parties at different levels during General election..

Some of us are voting..
PDP at house assembly level
APC at Reps level
PDP at Senate level
APGA at Governorship level
Labour Party at presidential level..

you see my I said, this 2023 will be different?

Obi can get 40% in sw because of the settlers.50% of lagos are made up of non indigenes who love voting against apc.they dominate 6 lgas.outside lagos,yorubas outnumber non indigenes by far.non indigenes do not dominate any LGA outside lagos.according to anap polls,50% of the people interviewed in lagos were indigenes and the remaining 50% were yorubas.40% out of this 50% yorubas said they will vote tinubu.round it up to 100% which means that 80% of yorubas will vote tinubu but I kept it at 60%....many of those yorubas dont like tinubu but the attitude of obi fans will push them to vote tinubu.again,all Yoruba groups will meet before election and decide. ..from 1960-1998,sw was the most educated and enlightened zone but they Gave their sons bloc votes.now that IBO and ss have catch up in education,what do you think?

Ss and se are educated but not all,apart from anambra and parts of imo,most parts of abia,ebonyi and enugu are undevekoped.the rural areas of ss highly undeveloped.in my state cross river,outside calabar,you will see pure darkness.do you know that most villages in my LGA doesn't have electricity or good roads? Many of them are not educated.they are only interested in entertainment and not politics.voting is decided by the chiefs and politicians.before election day,they usually meet and decide who to give bloc votes based on what they have benefited.same situation in bayelsa,akwa ibom..obi has no chance in the rural areas.most of his supporters are in the urban areas.even in 2019,did you notice that pdp were winning urban areas like amac,lekki,ikoyi while apc won the villages and 70% of votes are from rural areas...

Another reason why labour will fail is because of their polling unit agents.most of them are former apc,pdp agents and likely corrupt.they won't be paid well compared to how apc and pdp will pay.if apc and pdp offer them huge money,they will betray obi.for instance let's say in ogolomabiri unit 003 in bayelsa surrounded by creeks and forests,election has ended.bvas accredited 300 and labour won.now apc offers the agent 100k to keep quiet and he accepts,and the result is changed to apc winning but not above accredited votes.so you see,labour can't just win.you can't withstand apc and pdp in remote areas...is it not the labour that many of it's officials are being accused of stealing millions? What will ordinary polling agents do?

Apc was able to win pdp in 2015 because it was very strong and fielded strong candidates.how strong is labour party ?

Less I forget,borno will be used to counter anambra.tinubu can get 10,000 in anambra but obi won't see 1000 in borno

Superwave16320:
If Peter Obi come second in any state in the SW I owe 50K cash, Lagos included.

I am not asking for a bet o. Just tag the mod once result is out.

Bro.....you are joking with fire ooo!
Obi will win Lagos ooo!

garfield1:
Obi can get 40% in sw because of the settlers.50% of lagos are made up of non indigenes who love voting against apc.they dominate 6 lgas.outside lagos,yorubas outnumber non indigenes by far.non indigenes do not dominate any LGA outside lagos.according to anap polls,50% of the people interviewed in lagos were indigenes and the remaining 50% were yorubas.40% out of this 50% yorubas said they will vote tinubu.round it up to 100% which means that 80% of yorubas will vote tinubu but I kept it at 60%....many of those yorubas dont like tinubu but the attitude of obi fans will push them to vote tinubu.again,all Yoruba groups will meet before election and decide. ..from 1960-1998,sw was the most educated and enlightened zone but they Gave their sons bloc votes.now that IBO and ss have catch up in education,what do you think?

Ss and se are educated but not all,apart from anambra and parts of imo,most parts of abia,ebonyi and enugu are undevekoped.the rural areas of ss highly undeveloped.in my state cross river,outside calabar,you will see pure darkness.do you know that most villages in my LGA doesn't have electricity or good roads? Many of them are not educated.they are only interested in entertainment and not politics.voting is decided by the chiefs and politicians.before election day,they usually meet and decide who to give bloc votes based on what they have benefited.same situation in bayelsa,akwa ibom..obi has no chance in the rural areas.most of his supporters are in the urban areas.even in 2019,did you notice that pdp were winning urban areas like amac,lekki,ikoyi while apc won the villages and 70% of votes are from rural areas...

Another reason why labour will fail is because of their polling unit agents.most of them are former apc,pdp agents and likely corrupt.they won't be paid well compared to how apc and pdp will pay.if apc and pdp offer them huge money,they will betray obi.for instance let's say in ogolomabiri unit 003 in bayelsa surrounded by creeks and forests,election has ended.bvas accredited 300 and labour won.now apc offers the agent 100k to keep quiet and he accepts,and the result is changed to apc winning but not above accredited votes.so you see,labour can't just win.you can't withstand apc and pdp in remote areas...is it not the labour that many of it's officials are being accused of stealing millions? What will ordinary polling agents do?

Apc was able to win pdp in 2015 because it was very strong and fielded strong candidates.how strong is labour party ?

All these your assertions don't hold water at all.
Was PDP weak? Or was Osun governor weak?

JoeNL22:
All these your assertions don't hold water at all.
Was PDP weak? Or was Osun governor weak?

I didnt say pdp was weak.I said apc is as strong as pdp.I wasn't talking of state elections but oyetola is unpopular,adeleke was popular.where you expecting apc to win every state? My assertions are reality or was doyin okupe not convicted? Labour party is weak,it cannot fight apc

garfield1:
Obi can get 40% in sw because of the settlers.50% of lagos are made up of non indigenes who love voting against apc.they dominate 6 lgas.outside lagos,yorubas outnumber non indigenes by far.non indigenes do not dominate any LGA outside lagos.according to anap polls,50% of the people interviewed in lagos were indigenes and the remaining 50% were yorubas.40% out of this 50% yorubas said they will vote tinubu.round it up to 100% which means that 80% of yorubas will vote tinubu but I kept it at 60%....many of those yorubas dont like tinubu but the attitude of obi fans will push them to vote tinubu.again,all Yoruba groups will meet before election and decide. ..from 1960-1998,sw was the most educated and enlightened zone but they Gave their sons bloc votes.now that IBO and ss have catch up in education,what do you think?

Ss and se are educated but not all,apart from anambra and parts of imo,most parts of abia,ebonyi and enugu are undevekoped.the rural areas of ss highly undeveloped.in my state cross river,outside calabar,you will see pure darkness.do you know that most villages in my LGA doesn't have electricity or good roads? Many of them are not educated.they are only interested in entertainment and not politics.voting is decided by the chiefs and politicians.before election day,they usually meet and decide who to give bloc votes based on what they have benefited.same situation in bayelsa,akwa ibom..obi has no chance in the rural areas.most of his supporters are in the urban areas.even in 2019,did you notice that pdp were winning urban areas like amac,lekki,ikoyi while apc won the villages and 70% of votes are from rural areas...

Another reason why labour will fail is because of their polling unit agents.most of them are former apc,pdp agents and likely corrupt.they won't be paid well compared to how apc and pdp will pay.if apc and pdp offer them huge money,they will betray obi.for instance let's say in ogolomabiri unit 003 in bayelsa surrounded by creeks and forests,election has ended.bvas accredited 300 and labour won.now apc offers the agent 100k to keep quiet and he accepts,and the result is changed to apc winning but not above accredited votes.so you see,labour can't just win.you can't withstand apc and pdp in remote areas...is it not the labour that many of it's officials are being accused of stealing millions? What will ordinary polling agents do?

Apc was able to win pdp in 2015 because it was very strong and fielded strong candidates.how strong is labour party ?

Less I forget,borno will be used to counter anambra.tinubu can get 10,000 in anambra but obi won't see 1000 in borno

So all yorubas(90%) will vote for Tinubu abi?
You must be dreaming. I totally disagree with you concerning the SS & SE. The same people that gave GEJ 90-80% of their votes will do the same to Obi....Datti's a fact!

garfield1:
I didnt say pdp was weak.I said apc is as strong as pdp.I wasn't talking of state elections but oyetola is unpopular,adeleke was popular.where you expecting apc to win every state? My assertions are reality or was doyin okupe not convicted? Labour party is weak,it cannot fight apc

What concerns Doyin's case with wat we are discussing. The movement did not stop. LP didn't collapse. Oga, the people are the structure, not the rubbish political depth you are talking about

JoeNL22:
What concerns Doyin's case with wat we are discussing. The movement did not stop. LP didn't collapse. Oga, the people are the structure, not the rubbish political depth you are talking about

Oga,inec recognizes and deals with the officials of lp not the supporters.if obi wasn't flying under any party,will he be on the ballot? You need a strong party.buhari had more support from ordinary people than obi yet failed with weak parties..
Am using doyin to show you how corrupt lp is and how they will betray obi

garfield1:
Oga,inec recognizes and deals with the officials of lp not the supporters.if obi wasn't flying under any party,will he be on the ballot? You need a strong party.buhari had more support from ordinary people than obi yet failed with weak parties..
Am using doyin to show you how corrupt lp is and how they will betray obi

You need a strong supporters base, not party. The reason why Buhari won in 2015 was because the sw voted for him. Not because he had a structure. Apc was a party formed in 2014, lp has been in existence before APC, so wat are u now saying?

JoeNL22:
You need a strong supporters base, not party. The reason why Buhari won in 2015 was because the sw voted for him. Not because he had a structure. Apc was a party formed in 2014, lp has been in existence before APC, so wat are u now saying?

How strong is lp? Howvdid buhari win sw? Was it not by aligning with tinubu and the Yoruba party acn? What alliances has peter obi made outside se

JoeNL22:
So all yorubas(90%) will vote for Tinubu abi?
You must be dreaming. I totally disagree with you concerning the SS & SE. The same people that gave GEJ 90-80% of their votes will do the same to Obi....Datti's a fact!

I said according to anap polls,80% of yorubas are with tinubu but I will keep it at 60%.gej was a sitting president,he inflated results.obi can only get that in se not ss.even if he gets in ss,he will still fail like gej as tinubu will counter with northern resulrs

JoeNL22:
I laugh at you people alot.

You claim to know politics, but yet you won't put your money where your mouth is.
I told someone earlier this year. That If Atiku and Obi, campaign in Ekiti, Apc won't win the elections, but they weren't on ground in Ekiti, and I know you know who won. I told the dude the same thing with Osun. He said it's a lie. Well....I guess you also know the results too. Judging from your naive comment, it is clear you don't understand politics is a game. You think its about your achievements or your structure you will use to win elections. Gej had all the structure in 2015, yet he couldn't win same with Atiku in 2019, Same with Osun governor, Ekiti, is no exception, what structures do SDP have in Ekiti state in which Segun oni ran to become 2nd?. Did we vote buhari because of his achievements in 2015? Or OBJ in 2003 & 1999?. You Apc supporters are truly delusional. When the sw gave block votes to their son in 1999 was their religious intolerance in that 1999?, was their boko haram? Yet you want to compare 1999 elections with 2023 elections. The narrative have changed. It will be naive of you not to understand that fact. I stand on the fact that if Tinubu doesn't win the north with a landslide. He can't win the elections. Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwanso are fighting for the core north. SE, SS, SW & NC aren't fully behind Tinubu. So how doesn't want to win, If he doesn't get the full backing of the core north?

You're just too dull. Chaiiiiiiiiiii......dunce!
It's a waste of time arguing with a block head.