₦airaland Forum

majole:
You are adjusting gradually but giving your APC decent numbers. This is way better than your blindfolded previous APC bias. You would get there as election appproaches. For your information Tinubu won't get 25% in any SS/SE states. With BVAS governors & politicians have little power_ how many votes can they buy? Watching

You guys should leave sentiment aside and be objective in your projections. Tinubu will get 25% in Edo, Delta and cross river.

Analysis looks realistic going by the current state of things however I want to query your figures for APC & PDP in both Bayelsa and C/River don't you think religion and the it's 'the turn of the south' factor would reduce their votes in favour of LP?

garfield1:
South east
Abia
Apc 20%
Pdp 25%
Lp 55%
Nnpp 0%

Enugu
Apc 15%
Pdp 20%
Lp 65%

IMO
Apc 25%
Pdp 20%
Lp 55%
Nnpp 0

Ebonyi
Apc 30%
Pdp 20%
Lp 50%

Anambra
Apc 5%
Pdp 5%
Lp 90%

South south
Crs
Apc 33%
Pdp 33
Lp 33

Akwa ibom
Apc 25%
Pdp 45%
Lp 30%


Rivers
Apc 25%
Pdp 20%
Lp 55%
Nnpp 0%

Bayelsa
Apc 40%
Pdp 45%
Lp 15%

Delta
Apc 25%
Pdp 45%
Lp 30%

Edo
Apc 30%
Pdp 20%
Lp 50%

South west
Lagos
Apc 50%
Pdp 15%
Lp 35%

Ogun
Apc 70%
Pdp 20%
Lp 10%

Osun
Apc 60%
Pdp 35%
Lp 5%

Ondo
Apc 60%
Pdp 25%
Lp 15%

Ekiti
Apc 80%
Pdp 15%
Lp 5%

Oyo
Apc 55%
Pdp 30%
Lp 15%

North central
Benue
Apc 30%
Pdp 25%
Lp 45%

Plateau
Apc 30%
Pdp30%
Lp 40%

Nasarawa
Apc 33%
Pdp 33%
Lp 33%

Kogi
Apc 50%
Pdp 30%
Lp 18%
Nnpp 2&

Niger
Apc 45%
Apc 30%
Nnpp 20%
Lp 5%

Kwara
Apc 70%
Pdp 20%
Lp 10%

North west
Sokoto
Apc 40%
Pdp 45%
Nnpp 15%
Lp 0%

Zamfara
Apc 65%
Pdp 25%
Nnpp 10%
Lp 0%

Kebbi
Apc 45%
Pdp 35%
Nnpp 15%
Lp 5%

Katsina
Apc 40%
Pdp 40%
Nnpp 20%

Kaduna
Apc 35%
Pdp 20%
Lp 25%
Nnpp 10%

Jigawa
Apc 40%
Pdp 35%
Nnpp 25%
Lp 0%

Kano
Apc 30%
Pdp 20%
Nnpp 45%
Lp% 5

North east
Borno
Apc 80%
Pdp 10%
Nnpp 10
Lp 0

Yobe
Apc 70%
Pdp 20%
Nnpp 10%
Lp 0%

Gombe
Apc 40%
Pdp 35%
Lp 15%
Nnpp 10%

Bauchi
Apc 32%
Pdp 35%
Nnpp 30%
Lp 3%

Taraba
Apc 30%
Pdp 45%
Lp 20%
Nnpp 5%

Adamawa
Apc 20%
Pdp 60%
Lp 15%
Nnpp 5%




Cc mynd44
Lalasticlala
Fergie001
Joenl22
Immaculatejoe

Jorussia:
You guys should leave sentiment aside and be objective in your projections. Tinubu will get 25% in Edo, Delta and cross river.

With Muslim Muslim ticket? Comedian

seunmsg:
Very laughable. Who will give Peter Obi over 70% in all south south states and 25% in all south west states? Do you guys even understand what election is all about at all?

Peter Obi will not get 55% in any south south states and he won’t get 5% in any south west states outside Lagos.

And tinubu can get 70% outside SW states. SS/ SE would revert to 2011/2015 pattern of voting.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
With Muslim Muslim ticket? Comedian

I was among those who opposed Tinubu emergence as the candidate of APC because of same faith ticket. However, i think he has been able to allay the fears of many Christian leaders and followers, this is
no longer trending in d media.APC structure is the states i mentioned will give him 25% votes.

Jorussia:
I was among those who opposed Tinubu emergence as the candidate of APC because of same faith ticket. However, i think he has been able to allay the fears of many Christian leaders and followers, this is
no longer trending in d media.APC structure is the states i mentioned will give him 25% votes.

Allayed which fears from which Christian leaders, you mean his fake bishops?

chrisooblog:
Analysis looks realistic going by the current state of things however I want to query your figures for APC & PDP in both Bayelsa and C/River don't you think religion and the it's 'the turn of the south' factor would reduce their votes in favour of LP?

I don't know about bayelsa,Tinubu chances of getting 25% in Edo, Delta,and cross river is very realistic. Let us also be careful about Delta state and bayelsa.PDP can take
both states

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Allayed which fears from which Christian leaders, you mean his fake bishops?

Please i don't engage in meaningless arguments let's wait till February
to see who is right or wrong.thanks.

fergie001:
garfield1, I generally agree with your projections in the South though some %s in the South, maybe some were >5-10% higher or lower.

Many parts of the North, your projections were a bit garfield-like.

Please point out those ridiculous projections up north.but you will agree with me that I am flexible in my analysis.I analyse based on what is happening around and modify from time to time.by January,I'll release another one and before 25 Feb,I'll still drop.
For instance if atiku reconcile with them wike,it will change
I just discovered that hon bassey eko the pdp senatorial candidate for crs central is married to john oyegun.he is also close to tinubu.I heard he pleaded for imoke not to be prosecuted.he was legislative aide to speaker femi and was advised to go back to pdp and pick the senate ticket and was funded by them.tinubu and atiku have so much political links just that atiku does not service his contacts except during elections

seunmsg:
Very balanced and realistic projections. The final result won’t be far from this.

Keep shut!

ImmaculateJOE:
How did he stopped them.?

Gej got more than 1million votes then.

Yes but the lowest votes pdp got in tivers was 1.8 mil but without amechi,they couldn't.buhari has never gotten more than 20k in rivers but he got it and improved in 2019.
In 2015,rochas gave buhari 20% in imo, disrupted several polling units and prevented gej from getting the usual 1 mil.he won his LGA for buhari.in 2019,he gave buhari 25% and pdp votes reduced.in edo,oshiomhole gave buhari 40% in 2015 and stopped pdp from getting usual 500k.in 2019,buhari almost won edo.you can see the influence of govs

joyandfaith:
And tinubu can get 70% outside SW states. SS/ SE would revert to 2011/2015 pattern of voting.

Lol, they never stopped the 2011/2015 voting pattern. Technology just made it more difficult to simply write results the way they used to do it back then. Apart from some deluded folks, every reasonable political observer knows that Peter Obi has no path to victory. At best, he’s going to get 25% or more in not more than 14 states.

garfield1:
Please point out those ridiculous projections up north.but you will agree with me that I am flexible in my analysis.I analyse based on what is happening around and modify from time to time.by January,I'll release another one and before 25 Feb,I'll still drop.

For instance if atiku reconcile with them wike,it will change

I just discovered that hon bassey eko the pdp senatorial candidate for crs central is married to john oyegun's daughter.he is also close to tinubu. I heard he pleaded for imoke not to be prosecuted. He was legislative aide to speaker femi and was advised to go back to pdp and pick the senate ticket and was funded by them. Tinubu and atiku have so much political links just that atiku does not service his contacts except during elections.

That is Atiku's problem, he is an election man.

Eko was in the CRHOA under Duke, he is been challenged by Ettah... I don't know if the Court has ruled.

For projections, I will prefer that of January..... By that time, everyone will have known his stand. For reconciliation, I still think there is a window not because of Wike but because of other Govs.

Wike can hold his own but some of his colleagues are very vulnerable.

Agbegbaorogboye:
Really
So you accept Labour will get above 25% in Lagos

Yes. I’m projecting Labour Party to get 30% in Lagos to come second behind Tinubu.

garfield1:
Uzodinma will deliver 25%

Which Uzodinma?

Lmao.. You guys are really really funny.

See let me tell you something for free.


Hope will dumb you guys half way to save his ass.

Imolites hate him and APC with passion... FYI, I'm currently in Imo..

chrisooblog:
Analysis looks realistic going by the current state of things however I want to query your figures for APC & PDP in both Bayelsa and C/River don't you think religion and the it's 'the turn of the south' factor would reduce their votes in favour of LP?

I like your reactions,very mature and civil.I commend you...
Crs is my state.obi seems very popular in calabar,ogoja ikom but deep inside forested areas,apc and pdp are dominant.politicians from the locality still control their voting pattern.it is south turn factor will affect votes in favour of tinubu and obi.most people here dont care about that Muslim Muslim stuff...

obi presence in bayelsa is very weak. You hardly see people from bayelsa talking about obi.thee state is prone to rigging

Kingsmeal:
Which Uzodinma?

Lmao.. You guys are really really funny.

See let me tell you something for free.


Hope will dumb you guys half way to save his ass.

Imolites hate him and APC with passion... FYI, I'm currently in Imo..

Yes but where did the hatred lead to? Did it stop buhari from getting 25% or rochas from winning senate ? Just this year,apc won an election in ngor okpala...
Tinubu is smart.he is prepared.hope didn't support tinubu originally.he was with lawan so tinubu has set up independent campaign group in every state.

Agbegbaorogboye:
Garfield
You and all this your kwarshiokor analysis powered by burukutu
BTW, how did Amaechi stop PDP from getting votes from Rivers in 2015?
Go and check the scores

And it's impressive you called Katsina for PDP
If this your burukutu analysis is correct, a run off will be in the offing

So according to you,where did you see the possibility of a Run off in this projection??.
Some of you don't even know what run off actually means.
Shior!!!.

fergie001:
That is Atiku's problem, he is an election man.

Eko was in the CRHOA under Duke, he is been challenged by Ettah... I don't know if the Court has ruled.

For projections, I will prefer that of January..... By that time, everyone will have known his stand. For reconciliation, I still think there is a window not because of Wike but because of other Govs.

Wike can hold his own but some of his colleagues are very vulnerable.

Yes.atiku is more of a businessman than a politician.loyalty is very important in politics.one or two g 5 might softpedal like ikpeazu and ugwuanyi .but its not about soft pedalling or artificial reconciliation.they have sent a message that a lot of southerners aren't with atiku

garfield1:
I like your modifications but you need to feel the pulse of the people.outside lagos,lp is almost non existent.obi can't get more than 50% in any ss state.cross river is my state,many people dont like obi

You are really funny this guy...
How on earth do you think Obi will win any states in the south south not to talk of North Central??

Do you think presidential election is a joke to you?.

CutieKing:
You are really funny this guy...
How on earth do you think Obi will win any states in the south south not to talk of North Central??

Do you think presidential election is a joke to you?.

I know.obi might actually not win any ss and noryhrn state but am just being generous

Kingsmeal:
Which Uzodinma?

Lmao.. You guys are really really funny.

See let me tell you something for free.


Hope will dumb you guys half way to save his ass.

Imolites hate him and APC with passion... FYI, I'm currently in Imo..

Lol..
They hate apc yet they keep voting apc in any election ever since..
You guys will be alright las las.

garfield1:
Yes.atiku is more of a businessman than a politician.loyalty is very important in politics.one or two g 5 might softpedal like ikpeazu and ugwuanyi .but its not about soft pedalling or artificial reconciliation.they have sent a message that a lot of southerners aren't with atiku

I believe he knows.

He believes money can always get anything.

fergie001:
I believe he knows.

He believes money can always get anything.

That is just it.sometimes,it is beyond money.atiku doesnt cherish loyalty that is why most of those he raised abandoned him.

CutieKing:
You are really funny this guy...
How on earth do you think Obi will win any states in the south south not to talk of North Central??

Do you think presidential election is a joke to you?.

I believe Obi will win 3 SS states at least. North Central I am not sure

CutieKing:
[/b]

So according to you,where did you see the possibility of a Run off in this projection??.
Some of you don't even know what run off actually means.
Shior!!!.

Bleep off

seunmsg:
Lol, they never stopped the 2011/2015 voting pattern. Technology just made it more difficult to simply write results the way they used to do it back then. Apart from some deluded folks, every reasonable political observer knows that Peter Obi has no path to victory. At best, he’s going to get 25% or more in not more than 14 states.

This is not about who wins the election. Technology made it difficult in all states to just write results. I still maintain that patten of voting in SS/SE would be simliar to 2011/2015. APC got much votes in 2019 because of promise that Buhari would handover to someone from SS/SE.
Sincerely speaking, i don't who win 2023 presidential election but i know that ethnicity, religious, youths and social media would influence outcome of next elections.

Ok fair enough.

I also think you are one of the few supporters of any of the political parties that tries to argue things out logically without resorting to insults or abuse. I find that refreshing because our political sphere has become so fractured over the years that belonging to any camp makes either side view you as enemy or foe depending on their bias.

garfield1:
I like your reactions,very mature and civil.I commend you...
Crs is my state.obi seems very popular in calabar,ogoja ikom but deep inside forested areas,apc and pdp are dominant.politicians from the locality still control their voting pattern.it is south turn factor will affect votes in favour of tinubu and obi.most people here dont care about that Muslim Muslim stuff...

obi presence in bayelsa is very weak. You hardly see people from bayelsa talking about obi.thee state is prone to rigging

ImmaculateJOE:

Obi will get nothing less than 75% in any SE states.

2015, Ameachi was the DG of Buhari/Osinbajo campaign, it didn't make APC to get up to 5% of the votes in Rivers states.
Stop depending on Governors to give you votes, go to the street and convince the average voters.

Garfield1 shey you dey read this? You don start again oh. APC will get less than 10% in rivers state

LP will top the charts in Delta State. Nor be by media noise. If APC see 20% e mean says Ayiri work well well

Yeah LP will pull 30-35% of votes but I think PDP will be badly brutalized as most of the votes they got in the past will now be channeled to Obi. Do you think some Labour will be able to piggyback off Obi's votes and snatch some seats in some areas?

Now that I think about it it might be an uphill task for Banky W to clinch his seat with the potential of the Labour candidate to eat out of his cookie jar. At least Obanikoro is sure most of his base is intact and will be hoping BAT can help him over the finish line.

seunmsg:
Yes. I’m projecting Labour Party to get 30% in Lagos to come second behind Tinubu.

Oga, let me correct something in my own state. Lp 70% PDP 15 and APC 15