Vl3ly:
The war is not over yet, but the outcome is already clear. Ukraine has lost.

It pains me to say this, of course. Ukraine has fought a just war against an unjust – even barbaric – aggressor. And the country has fought well. Indeed, not only have the Ukrainians put up a better defensive fight than was generally expected in the run-up to the war, but they have taken the fight to the enemy, even pushing the Russians back on several fronts.


But Ukraine has lost the war nonetheless.

Why do I say this? Because, at the end of the day, Russia will have imposed its will on Ukraine while Ukraine will have achieved almost none of the goals – other than survival – it is pursuing on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.

That Russia will end up imposing its will on Ukraine now seems beyond reasonable doubt. Despite suffering terrible casualties and embarrassing battlefield setbacks, Moscow has already forced Kyiv to concede that NATO membership, and probably European Union (EU) membership too, is a non-starter. The separatist enclaves in Donetsk and Luhansk are in no danger of reverting to Ukrainian control, and the only question in the south of the country is how much territory will be added to the Crimean lands pried from Kyiv’s control in 2014.

Ukraine, on the other hand, will likely achieve almost none of its goals. To be sure, Ukraine will continue to inflict losses on the Russian forces, preventing them from taking Kyiv and other major cities and pushing them back here and there in successful, if limited, counter-offensives. But Kyiv will not achieve its operational-level objectives of expelling the Russians from all the territory it has lost since Feb. 24. It will not win a decisive battlefield victory that will vanquish once and for all the Russian invaders.

Mounting a spirited and capable defense is one thing; launching a major operational offensive is another. Ukraine has demonstrated that it can do the former, but there is no indication that it can launch and sustain the type of major combined-arms offensives required to drive the Russians out of those parts of occupied Ukraine that Moscow is really committed to holding.Nor will Ukraine realize its main strategic objectives – the diplomatic-political goals it has been pursuing in fits and starts since the early-2000s but in earnest and consistently since 2014 – either on the battlefield or at the negotiating table. Not only will Ukraine not recover all the territory lost during the war; it will not re-establish sovereignty over territory lost in 2014. Nor will it definitively break with Russia and decisively accede to the West, either through NATO membership or association with the European Union.


None of this is going to happen. Russia is not willing to concede any of this. And as has already been amply demonstrated, Moscow gets a vote on Ukraine’s future. NATO leaders are not interested in this happening, fearing that if Russian President Vladimir Putin faces decisive defeat – that is, the realization of Ukraine’s main strategic goals – he might play the nuclear card in a final desperate bid to stave off disaster both for him and his country. And Ukraine’s president has already conceded that some form of neutrality is likely to be his country’s future, conceding one of Kyiv’s main strategic objectives.

To be sure, this doesn’t mean that the fighting will stop tomorrow. Getting to the inevitable outcome – which, to reiterate, will be a strategic defeat for Kyiv and a partial (and pyrrhic) victory for Russia – will take some time, and much additional bloodshed, yet. It is in the nature of such conflicts, however, that once a mutually hurting stalemate sets in, both sides will be forced to make difficult concessions, first in the service of agreeing a ceasefire and later, perhaps much later, in the service of a more permanent negotiated settlement.

But such a stalemate is already in sight, even if at the moment both sides continue to cling to the delusion that just one more push and victory will be theirs. The fighting will eventually end, or at least return to pre-war levels.


The hard part to swallow is that between now and then many more people will die, additional destruction will be wrought upon the land and lives of the people of Ukraine, more war-crimes will be perpetrated and much more suffering inflicted and endured — and all for nought. Perpetuating the fighting will yield few, if any, gains for either side. It may be the inescapable logic of such conflicts that they end in this way, pointlessly dragging in the pursuit of victory but at the inevitable expense of innocent people. But it is a bitter pill — one that’s very hard to swallow.

But here’s the truly bitter truth: In broad brush strokes at least, the most-likely post-war settlement is pretty much the same as the settlement that was on offer before the bloodletting began in earnest on Feb. 24. While Putin was the one who pulled the trigger that fateful day, and thus bears full moral responsibility for all that has happened since, there are many others who could have made different choices in the run-up to the war. Different choices could have resulted in a pre-war settlement that would have been almost indistinguishable from the most likely post-war settlement, minus only the untold death and destruction visited on Ukraine these past weeks and months. In that sense, and only in that limited sense, there’s plenty of blame to go around.

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It’s perhaps best left to history to definitively sort out precisely who made what decisions that led us needlessly down the historical path to war. And maybe it’s always the case that belligerents must batter themselves senseless before they come to their senses.


But one thing is already crystal clear: While the war is not yet over, Ukraine has lost. Grasping that, we must first bring the fighting quickly to an end. Then we must mourn the dead. And, finally, we must get on with the task of rebuilding the country that Vladimir Putin has destroyed.

Andrew Latham is a professor of international relations at Macalester College in Saint Paul, Minn., and a non-resident fellow at Defense Priorities in Washington, D.C. Follow him on Twitter @aalatham.

TAGS KYIV RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA-

FreddieGray:
Special millitary operation thwarted major attack on Russia "The plans of the West included the instant capture of the DPR, LPR and Crimea, the extermination of their population" and then "the creation of a major NATO force near the borders of Russia as well as provocations and acts of sabotage in the border regions. Read about the atrocities and genocide meted out on the indigenous people of Canada Moscow could not but react to what was happening in Ukraine "after the 2014 coup d'etat, specifically to the atrocities of Kiev’s neo-Nazi regime, which staged the genocide of the Russian-speaking population." (Mostly Ukrainians in the Donbass republics. Following a referendum, these territories and thier inhabitants were integrated into Russia). Pre-planned full-scale hostilities on Russian territory did not start thanks to the special military operation The United States has long been creating a springboard in Ukraine for delivering strikes against Russia, "and today Washington no longer shies away from admitting this." "The events in Ukraine prove Washington's plans to prevent the emergence of a multipolar world through confrontation with our country. To this end, the West has turned Ukraine into a hotbed of tension that poses a military threat to Russia. May I draw your attention to confessions by the former leaders of Ukraine, France and Germany - Pyotr Poroshenko, Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel - to the effect that the Minsk agreements were needed only to let Ukraine build up military muscle and create an anti-Russian coalition. Historical facts confirm that Russia has repeatedly led the charge in the fight between good and evil, and for centuries has liberated peoples of the world from oppression. Today Russia is defending truth, justice, moral principles and spiritual values from desecration. I personally don't care about the spiritual aspect. I'm not spiritual but homosexuality, pedophilia and those sorts are disgusting. The normalization of these activities in the West is apparently due to moral depravity and mental dereliction.

b4ball:
An American professor once asked; what can be defined as a win for Ukraine? No matter what their media says, what does a win for Ukraine entails if it fails to join NATO, not recover Crimea despite losing hundreds of thousands of men, and vast devastation of its cities? Hailing Zelenskyy on media does not equate to victory if any of these is off the table. But a win for Russia is simply found in its objectives, “we don’t want NATO in Ukraine”! The question will now be; how was this different from the pre-war demands and both Minsk agreements? But it’s a Pyrrhic victory because there will be NATO in Finland at the very end.

So who won? The US won! Just like they won the Cold War, did not send an active troop, got Europe to dump Russian gas for freedom molecules, today while Russia has no edge over Europe, Europe is forever more dependent on the US for both its security and energy, a two faced sword. Either way, Europe a wealthy civilization will pay subservience to the US to guarantee its security and survival. It was pure economics, just like the petro-dollar, Ukraine was the pawn.

pansophist:
@bolded, exactly, that is why `Ukraine is a do-or-die affair for the Russians. Of all the countries bordering Russia, only Ukraine is the leak that Russia can be invaded, and all previous invasions from Napoleon and Hitler came from there. Russia will rather wreck and destroy Ukraine than let it join Nato or belong to the western alliance. No amount of sanctions, media badmouthing, and political isolation will stop Russia. Ukraine is a matter of existence for the Russians. And would you blame them? Wars are won before the battle begins, and if Ukraine joins nato, then Russia already lost even when there is no war yet. Russia understands this, the west does, and every geopolitical pundit does as well.

Dvdpity:
Medicine after deaths. What implementation of the Minsk agreement would have solved. They wanted to fight Russia, defeat Russia humiliate Russia and finally balkanize Russia for the glory of America, but the table has turned, Russians has decided to fight, it's becoming a massacred for Nazis of Ukraine. Russia is just starting.

b4ball:
An American professor once asked; what can be defined as a win for Ukraine? No matter what their media says, what does a win for Ukraine entails if it fails to join NATO, not recover Crimea despite losing hundreds of thousands of men, and vast devastation of its cities? Hailing Zelenskyy on media does not equate to victory if any of these is off the table. But a win for Russia is simply found in its objectives, “we don’t want NATO in Ukraine”! The question will now be; how was this different from the pre-war demands and both Minsk agreements? But it’s a Pyrrhic victory because there will be NATO in Finland at the very end.

So who won? The US won! Just like they won the Cold War, did not send an active troop, got Europe to dump Russian gas for freedom molecules, today while Russia has no edge over Europe, Europe is forever more dependent on the US for both its security and energy, a two faced sword. Either way, Europe a wealthy civilization will pay subservience to the US to guarantee its security and survival. It was pure economics, just like the petro-dollar, Ukraine was the pawn.

Kingsnairaland:


It was the devil in their head that was telling them that story that they can humble Russia that has hypersonic weapons and nukes.

Dvdpity:
Medicine after deaths. What implementation of the Minsk agreement would have solved. They wanted to fight Russia, defeat Russia humiliate Russia and finally balkanize Russia for the glory of America, but the table has turned, Russians has decided to fight, it's becoming a massacred for Nazis of Ukraine. Russia is just starting.

Kingsnairaland:


This is just trying to shift the lose which holds no water Ukraine is the main focal point that the USA spent all their blood money and still failed to capture lol.

Otobong3374:
What This Nigerian Troll Is Trying To Say? I Know You Are Infected Because Of Your Useless Government, & Your Meat Grinder President Is About To Step Down. Useless Nigerian That Is Minggling In Dry Country.

itsRhamzy:
STFU føol if you have nothing meaningful to contribute and stop the needless cussing and throwing of insults on the thread.