₦airaland Forum

THE FAUX, THE PAWN AND THE REALITY

I have read countless articles, essays and blogs on many fora about the currency redesign scheme, especially when the policy was first introduced. Some people applauded the CBN for the policy hoping that it would stop certain politicians from vote buying.

As a patriotic Nigerian, I will support anything to sanitize our polity including the political class and power corridor but not through an ill-timed and anti-people machinations of this sort aimed at conditioning the masses and the voting public into accepting the wishes of some few power drunk "cabals".

The question is - Who's suffering from the Naira Redesign Policy- is it the Politicians or the larger masses?"
-Do they think politicians can't buy vote with dollars or other currencies?
-Or do they think that the Politicians don't have access to the new currency already?
-What is the essence of this policy when new notes are not in circulation?

To pay cash for goods and services has become a problem except for those who are smart and savvy enough to use pay platforms. How about people in the villages and rural areas that don't have access to these pay platforms, good network and electricity to access their monies?
Nigeria cannot just go cashless overnight without making available some basic fiscal and social frameworks upon which it will hinge.

For instance, average Nigerian businesses are informal in nature and by implications are cash and logistic based in nature. In light of these, how accessible and reliable is our road network? How many states and cities have prepaid/cashless transportation schemes? How many one-stop groceries centers or markets do we have to cater for our daily grocery needs with just a push of the "pay button" without necessarily paying cash like we find in developing nations? What is the situation and role of our internet service providers in all of these?
All of these questions and more are begging for answers and should have been analysed before we go full throttle on our cash swap and cashless policy mission.

Recently in history, as early as Nov. 8, 2016, there was a surprise announcement on Indian television. In a live telecast to the nation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared that the country’s two highest-denomination currency notes (Rs 1,000 and Rs 500) would be withdrawn immediately from the market. The plan, termed demonetization by the press, was planned in secrecy and announced dramatically, as Modi’s masterstroke against black money. Modi was praised for mopping up over US$320 billion (about 86% of total cash in circulation) but the praise eroded not too long after the cash crunch that almost crippled the economy of a country with a huge informal economy, dependent on cash transactions. The demonetization policy was a big political gamble in India, as there was no precedent, anywhere in the world, for a sudden economic shock of that scale.

Similar to what is happening now in Nigeria, the experience in India was chaos, as the country scrambled to cope. There was mad rush at banks and ATMs to exchange old notes and withdraw new currency. Queues at banks grew; many people suffered, especially the poor, who had no access to credit cards or mobile wallets; and dozens of deaths resulting from the crisis were reported.
Several years later, the dust might have settled, but it has become obvious that demonetization was not the resounding success the government expected it to be. India’s black money problem has not gone away. The economy has taken a beating, huge financial losses have been incurred, and the marginalized poor, least able to withstand adversity, have been negatively affected. There have been some gains in tax collections, and the country may have progressed toward digital payments, but these advances could have been achieved through other, less drastic means.

For countries like Nigeria tackling black money, stashed cash or promoting a cashless economy, India’s experience with demonetization provides rich lessons. Although by the long-term, social economic, and political consequences of demonetization are still playing out in India, answers to many complex questions are not apparently answered. This cash swap route is faux!

From the foregoing, it is very clear to the blind and audible to the deaf that the allegations levelled against the person of the CBN governor - Godwin Emefiele are not unfounded nor mere grapevine. The CBN governor is at best a pawn in the political war between the South and North especially in a political cycle that is touted as crucial and critical to the destiny of our democracy and nation. Nigeria has been battling inflation at double digits especially post COVID-19 and must be careful with adopting and implementation of fiscal and monetary policies. The Apex bank which has been battling inflation at 18.5%, noted that with more than N2.73 trillion out on the streets from the N3.23 trillion outside the CBN vaults, it aims to take control of money supply by mopping up cash from the economy, both within the vaults of banks and in the hands of citizens. The question now is how does CBN hope to mop N3.23 trillion with N500billion? Also, apart from the currency redesign and swap thereof, what tangible or critical framework has CBN laid down for unforseen circumstances as we are witnessing? Perhaps the events are unfolding as planned hence no need to cushion the adversities.
Since policies are meant for human beings and not the other way round, it can be suggested that the CBN should rework its currency redesign and swap policy by extending the time line in order to cater for the cash crunch we are experiencing.

Still fresh in our memory is the impact of Covid-19 and its aftermath, also again the impact of the "Endsars" nationwide protest and now the currency swap saga- which I will advise that government, through all relevant agencies must urgently cushion and avoid escalating unwanted tension and pressure on our already fragile economy and nationhood.

In reality, the situation we have at hand require a holistic rather than sectional or sentimental approach. I don't understand how the CBN hope to solve monetary and fiscal problems of this country with this kind of thoughtless experiment.
The Nigerian government must not allow this act to snowball into another "Endsars" drama because Nigeria cannot afford it.

Finally, In a largely informal economy like ours, where the most vulnerable people still have no access to digital payments, going totally cashless could be seen as an ill-considered, draconian measure that will do a lot of damage to our people and economy. So far, the benefits (if any) do not seem to have been worth this enormous financial losses and suffering.
If you doubt it, check the nearby market for feelers. Nigerians are scrambling to survive!

Adetoye, Adeyemi Kareem.
Concerned Nigerians for Good Governance
(CNGG) Convener.
03/02/2023.

“3k for 10k!” That was what the POS operator at Eleganza told me.
“Ehn, you say?” I asked.

“3k for 10k!” She repeated herself.

I gave her a disdainful look and walked away. While walking to get a bike simmering with anger, I said to myself, “If I give you da money, make I bend!”


Who would have thought a day would come when Nigerians would need to pay naira to get naira?

I needed to cook and visited the bank hoping to get some money. I stood in the bank for about an hour and got only ₦2000. What exactly was I supposed to do with ₦2000? I was going to buy beef, but the meat vendor wouldn’t take a transfer, so I bought ‘eja kika’ and put it in my stew. Guess what? My stew never tasted more delicious. While I was in the bank, a senior citizen came in to request for his statement of account. Apart from withdrawal transactions, the bank had closed down other operations because of violence that was taking place within Epe and Lakowe environs. This elderly man was denied his statement of account and was asked to make use of a bank app. Of course, he did not have the app and had no idea what to do. The manager sympathised with him, but his hands were tied at that time; he had shut down things to protect his workers. I could not blame him. Hmm, I cannot even complain because some people have it worse. They cannot feed nor can they move around since they have no access to cash. The downside of this is that there are non-literate people, elderly men and women with no access to internet banking, USSD transfer, and mobile money.

NB: Kindly visit the link below to continue reading.

https://amazingmeroses..com/2023/02/naira-for-naira-how-embarrassing.html?m=1

monakii:
THE FAUX, THE PAWN AND THE REALITY

I have read countless articles, essays and blogs on many fora about the currency redesign scheme, especially when the policy was first introduced. Some people applauded the CBN for the policy hoping that it would stop certain politicians from vote buying.

As a patriotic Nigerian, I will support anything to sanitize our polity including the political class and power corridor but not through an ill-timed and anti-people machinations of this sort aimed at conditioning the masses and the voting public into accepting the wishes of some few power drunk "cabals".

The question is - Who's suffering from the Naira Redesign Policy- is it the Politicians or the larger masses?"
-Do they think politicians can't buy vote with dollars or other currencies?
-Or do they think that the Politicians don't have access to the new currency already?
-What is the essence of this policy when new notes are not in circulation?

To pay cash for goods and services has become a problem except for those who are smart and savvy enough to use pay platforms. How about people in the villages and rural areas that don't have access to these pay platforms, good network and electricity to access their monies?
Nigeria cannot just go cashless overnight without making available some basic fiscal and social frameworks upon which it will hinge.

For instance, average Nigerian businesses are informal in nature and by implications are cash and logistic based in nature. In light of these, how accessible and reliable is our road network? How many states and cities have prepaid/cashless transportation schemes? How many one-stop groceries centers or markets do we have to cater for our daily grocery needs with just a push of the "pay button" without necessarily paying cash like we find in developing nations? What is the situation and role of our internet service providers in all of these?
All of these questions and more are begging for answers and should have been analysed before we go full throttle on our cash swap and cashless policy mission.

Recently in history, as early as Nov. 8, 2016, there was a surprise announcement on Indian television. In a live telecast to the nation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared that the country’s two highest-denomination currency notes (Rs 1,000 and Rs 500) would be withdrawn immediately from the market. The plan, termed demonetization by the press, was planned in secrecy and announced dramatically, as Modi’s masterstroke against black money. Modi was praised for mopping up over US$320 billion (about 86% of total cash in circulation) but the praise eroded not too long after the cash crunch that almost crippled the economy of a country with a huge informal economy, dependent on cash transactions. The demonetization policy was a big political gamble in India, as there was no precedent, anywhere in the world, for a sudden economic shock of that scale.

Similar to what is happening now in Nigeria, the experience in India was chaos, as the country scrambled to cope. There was mad rush at banks and ATMs to exchange old notes and withdraw new currency. Queues at banks grew; many people suffered, especially the poor, who had no access to credit cards or mobile wallets; and dozens of deaths resulting from the crisis were reported.
Several years later, the dust might have settled, but it has become obvious that demonetization was not the resounding success the government expected it to be. India’s black money problem has not gone away. The economy has taken a beating, huge financial losses have been incurred, and the marginalized poor, least able to withstand adversity, have been negatively affected. There have been some gains in tax collections, and the country may have progressed toward digital payments, but these advances could have been achieved through other, less drastic means.

For countries like Nigeria tackling black money, stashed cash or promoting a cashless economy, India’s experience with demonetization provides rich lessons. Although by the long-term, social economic, and political consequences of demonetization are still playing out in India, answers to many complex questions are not apparently answered. This cash swap route is faux!

From the foregoing, it is very clear to the blind and audible to the deaf that the allegations levelled against the person of the CBN governor - Godwin Emefiele are not unfounded nor mere grapevine. The CBN governor is at best a pawn in the political war between the South and North especially in a political cycle that is touted as crucial and critical to the destiny of our democracy and nation. Nigeria has been battling inflation at double digits especially post COVID-19 and must be careful with adopting and implementation of fiscal and monetary policies. The Apex bank which has been battling inflation at 18.5%, noted that with more than N2.73 trillion out on the streets from the N3.23 trillion outside the CBN vaults, it aims to take control of money supply by mopping up cash from the economy, both within the vaults of banks and in the hands of citizens. The question now is how does CBN hope to mop N3.23 trillion with N500billion? Also, apart from the currency redesign and swap thereof, what tangible or critical framework has CBN laid down for unforseen circumstances as we are witnessing? Perhaps the events are unfolding as planned hence no need to cushion the adversities.
Since policies are meant for human beings and not the other way round, it can be suggested that the CBN should rework its currency redesign and swap policy by extending the time line in order to cater for the cash crunch we are experiencing.

Still fresh in our memory is the impact of Covid-19 and its aftermath, also again the impact of the "Endsars" nationwide protest and now the currency swap saga- which I will advise that government, through all relevant agencies must urgently cushion and avoid escalating unwanted tension and pressure on our already fragile economy and nationhood.

In reality, the situation we have at hand require a holistic rather than sectional or sentimental approach. I don't understand how the CBN hope to solve monetary and fiscal problems of this country with this kind of thoughtless experiment.
The Nigerian government must not allow this act to snowball into another "Endsars" drama because Nigeria cannot afford it.

Finally, In a largely informal economy like ours, where the most vulnerable people still have no access to digital payments, going cashless could be seen as an ill-considered, draconian measure that will do a lot of damage to our people and economy. So far, the benefits (if any) do not seem to have been worth these enormous financial losses and suffering.
If you doubt it, check the nearby market for feelers. Nigerians are scrambling to survive!

Adetoye, Adeyemi Kareem.
Concerned Nigerians for Good Governance
(CNGG) Convener.
03/02/2023.