In an office in an upscale part of Lagos, a group of young economists and analysts fine-tune a data set they say will produce the most comprehensive publicly available election polling in Nigeria’s history, ahead of the country’s presidential vote this month.

The mainly western-educated team at data company Stears aims to bring evidence-based insights into one of the world’s most complex electoral races — in a country where official data is so unreliable that no one even knows the exact size of the population.

“Over the last couple of election cycles, data has not always been a big part of the election conversation,” said Preston Ideh, Stears’ chief executive who co-founded the company in 2018 to address a dearth of reliable information in Africa’s largest economy.

Election polling has been done before in Nigeria, but usually in the form of surveys commissioned by political parties and other organisations for internal use. In this election cycle, however, start-ups such as Stears and SBM Intelligence, another Lagos-based data specialist, are aiming to fill a gap in the market for high-quality, publicly available information.

Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, an analyst at the Centre for Democracy and Development think-tank, views the introduction of polling as a sign of “how robust Nigeria’s electoral space is becoming”.

Surveys covering big issues, such as the proposed removal of fuel subsidies, would also help Nigeria’s leaders in decision-making, he said. “It would be good to have polling on any of the difficult decisions the next administration may have to take. Not just for the government, but public policy analysts, to see how Nigerians are thinking.”

Nigerians go to the polls on February 25 to choose a replacement for Muhammadu Buhari, who is stepping down after two terms, and members of both houses of parliament. On March 11 they are scheduled to elect governors and members of state legislatures.

The presidential race is expected to be tight. Three main candidates are in the running: Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress, main opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic party and the Labour party’s Peter Obi.

SBM’s polling is focused on helping civil society organisations identify the issues that voters say are most important to them. Ikemesit Effiong, its head of research, said: “We want to understand how Nigerians perceive the issues and how those issues are likely to feed into the wider conduct of the election, as well as the outcome and reaction to the outcome.”

Effiong said SBM’s survey showed that voters were most concerned about insecurity, the economy, corruption and the proposed fuel subsidy removal.

Stears launched Nigeria’s first real-time election monitor ahead of the 2019 poll. Some 2mn users logged on to follow results as they came in. Its 2023 database is more comprehensive, with biographical information on almost 15,000 candidates in some 1,500 contests, covering state as well as national races.

Polling data is limited to the presidential race and a few governorship elections partly because of cost and logistics constraints. Ideh estimates that Stears has spent up to N30mn ($66,000) canvassing 6,000 randomly selected respondents for this year’s elections — almost double the number surveyed in other available polls.

The company raised $3.3mn in seed funding last year from investors, including MaC Venture Capital, US tennis star Serena Williams’ venture capital fund Serena Ventures and eBay founder Pierre Omidyar’s Luminate Group.

Among the logistical issues are Nigeria’s complex voting system, under which voters can only cast their ballot at the polling unit where they are registered, and an electorate that is deeply divided along ethnic and religious lines, which complicates efforts to assemble a representative sample of voters. Previous Nigerian elections have also been marred by unrest and safety concerns are known to depress voter turnout.

“The voting value chain in Nigeria is fraught with risk,” said Michael Famoroti, who’s leading the project at Stears.

With the industry in its infancy, analysis of polling data is tricky. The lack of historical information hinders efforts to draw inferences about voting behaviour. “It’s a very big problem,” said Stears co-founder Abdul Abdulrahim. “More complex models that try to understand people’s behaviour don’t just need today’s picture, they need yesterday’s picture.”

In an effort to obtain a representative sample, Stears randomly selected just over half of the 6,220 respondents in its 2023 survey from each of Nigeria’s 36 states and the capital Abuja, with the numbers based on the states’ share of registered voters.

The others were drawn from Lagos, Kano and Rivers, which are among states with the highest number of voters, and three states in the North Central region that have a mix of religions and ethnicities. Since 1979, North Central has backed the eventual winner in every presidential contest.

The company has built voter profiles for the main candidates based on their supporters’ age, gender, education level and perception of election day safety and therefore the likelihood they will venture out to vote. Turnout in recent elections has been low at about 35 per cent.

“Elections are a universe of possibilities based on variations with turnout, last-minute surprises and much more. Without understanding that, you don’t have a business in this business,” said political analyst Joachim MacEbong.

The polling industry has taken a hit to its reputation after failing to predict the election of Donald Trump as US president in 2016 or the UK’s Brexit vote in the same year and for overstating the “red wave” of support for the Republicans in last November’s US midterm elections.

Stears acknowledged these issues, but said its goal was to foster an environment where polling became more accurate.

The CDD’s Adekaiyaoja warned that providing the right context and nuance around polling data was crucial to prevent it from being weaponised.

“Polls can be used as a means of active disinformation by groups trying to whip up sentiments or stir people into violence,” he said. “It’s a very sensitive landscape, where the tiniest margins might determine who becomes president.”

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drlateef:




Another set of igbo pollsters again. When will they stop all the charade? Can’t they see that people already know they are fake and they are designed for Peter Obi?

Peterobi90:


The poll has not even been published yet and you have lost faith on your candidate winning already despite having all the crowded rallies.. cheer up man.. Tinubu would loose...

McKay12:
Anybody but Tinubu

drlateef:




Another set of igbo pollsters again. When will they stop all the charade? Can’t they see that people already know they are fake and they are designed for Peter Obi?

drlateef:




When we already know they are Obi supporters, what do you expect from the results? Imagine polls claiming that Obi will win in Katsina and southwest!!!

OfficialAPCNig:


You mean a company co-founded by a Yoruba moslem, a project managed by a Yoruba Christian and a research team led by a Efik Christian are Igbos.

You guys are impossible.

Anyway, Tinubu won the poll by a close shave, Obi came second while Atiku was third.

Kwankwanso came distant fourth.

The poll results are already out online. Go check it yourself and stop hating on a tribe that did nothing to your ancestors.

Better still, wait for the official unveiling.

Tinubu won the poll.

You are now happy abi?