₦airaland Forum

wegevv:
Thank you Garfield. May God bless your PDP friends. APC are rejected for giving us the worst federal government in the history of our country. They need to be disgraced and humiliated at the polls in 2 weeks time. A narrow defeat won't be enough.

If we are lucky the message will be loud and clear so that our future leaders can take heed

Vote Obi, or literally anyone else but APC <3

What I am trying to tell him is that a lot of people in ss are against obi

Lol! Only one polling unit

garfield1:
I am basing my data from 1999 and beyond.those core north are averse to christian southerners.bvas will reduce votes up north but it will even reduce more in south as we dont vote while northerners vote more..

The new registration does not make a difference.in 2019 polls,we had 14 mil new registrations and almost 13 mil collected PVCs yet there was no significant change.this year,we had 9 mil new registrations and I know PVC collection won't exceed 8 million so it will not change anything.
Most of those polls are giving obi se and ss and nc narrowly which means if pdp or apc put pressure on nc,obi will lose. Se and ss turnout is usually low

How exactly would you base your data from 1999. 2007 and 2011 election results were scandalous and I don't think any serious person will consider that data.

Projection based on data in my opinion should begin from 2015 as these elections results though marred with irregularities are the closest we've had to a free and fair election.

With the advent of bvas, we'll again have better data to make projections from from 2023. Except something dramatic happens, 2023 election would have the highest turnout of voters. Those banking on apathy in the south east and south south will likely be disappointed except the powers that be successful mar the proceedings with violence.

The north typically know for writing results and importing folks from Niger to come vote will also have significant reduction in numbers. Sadly they haven't experienced any election with bvas for us draw deductions from so we have to wait and see.

garfield1:
What I am trying to tell him is that a lot of people in ss are against obi

Not really.

The people in the south south aren't against Obi, however those who can really sway votes are, thYs where I dear for Obi. Left on their own the south south people will vote Obi, but the political structure in a couple of south south states are not pro-obi. This will likely do big damage to Obi here except the people decide to do otherwise.

garfield1:
He has the biggest chance actually.I just finished an argument with four guys who are staunch pdp guys.they are supporting atiku.I begged them to support obi,they refused.

Garfield 😮. Why you no tell them to vote BAT? Abi you typed this in error?

I have come to realize that obi will do well in this election, reason they are doing everything possible to promote tribalism.

lovewins:
Not really.

The people in the south south aren't against Obi, however those who can really sway votes are, thYs where I dear for Obi. Left on their own the south south people will vote Obi, but the political structure in a couple of south south states are not pro-obi. This will likely do big damage to Obi here except the people decide to do otherwise.

Exactly.a greater number will vote obi but pdp and apc have enough to get good votes also preventing a sweep.In the end,obi may win but narrowly

lovewins:
How exactly would you base your data from 1999. 2007 and 2011 election results were scandalous and I don't think any serious person will consider that data.

Projection based on data in my opinion should begin from 2015 as these elections results though marred with irregularities are the closest we've had to a free and fair election.

With the advent of bvas, we'll again have better data to make projections from from 2023. Except something dramatic happens, 2023 election would have the highest turnout of voters. Those banking on apathy in the south east and south south will likely be disappointed except the powers that be successful mar the proceedings with violence.

The north typically know for writing results and importing folks from Niger to come vote will also have significant reduction in numbers. Sadly they haven't experienced any election with bvas for us draw deductions from so we have to wait and see.

Not true.bvas has been used in reruns in legislative polls in kaduna ,plateau,nasarawa,jigawa and the turnout was very high.even sw recorded a high tyrnout in ekiti and osun.but bvas elections in anambra,aba rerun,imo rerun saw a very low turnout...
Like you said,the powers that be are against obi and they will suppress his votes

garfield1:
Mostly conducted in urban areas.once you get to the rural areas,you hardly find obi fans.the apc structure will supprws his votes

Atiku won only 5 LGs in Lagos in 2019 while Buhari won 15 LGs. Buhari defeated him with only about 130,000 votes. The urban areas are where most people live. Plus, due to the hardship faced in the country, only vote buying can make APC supporters come out to vote. The voter apathy will be very high among APC supporters especially in the north. What are they really looking forward to that will change?

Note that only 19% of registered voters voted in Lagos in 2019. The enthusiasm wasn't there. Today it's high among PO supporters, we'll see what happens

garfield1:
Not true.bvas has been used in reruns in legislative polls in kaduna ,plateau,nasarawa,jigawa and the turnout was very high.even sw recorded a high tyrnout in ekiti and osun.but bvas elections in anambra,aba rerun,imo rerun saw a very low turnout...
Like you said,the powers that be are against obi and they will suppress his votes

I should have included in line with the new signed electoral laws. Even with bvas, people could still bypass it at the time and claim it wasn't working and go full manual. Now it's bvas or nothing based on the newly signed electoral act.

So to judge bvas in lieu with the forthcoming election, the only elections one should seriously consider is the election in ekiti and Osun which both held after the electoral laws had been passed.

In ekiti for instance, 351k people voted in 2022 against 403k in 2018 when bvas wasn't strictly used.

Osun state however had 100k more vote cast in 2022 than 2018. If we however deduct the numbers the tribunal removed as a result of bvas, we'll again have significantly less numbers than we did in 2018.

lovewins:
I should have included in line with the new signed electoral laws. Even with bvas, people could still bypass it at the time and claim it wasn't working and go full manual. Now it's bvas or nothing based on the newly signed electoral act.

So to judge bvas in lieu with the forthcoming election, the only elections one should seriously consider is the election in ekiti and Osun which both held after the electoral laws had been passed.

In ekiti for instance, 351k people voted in 2022 against 403k in 2018 when bvas wasn't strictly used.

Osun state however had 100k more vote cast in 2022 than 2018. If we however deduct the numbers the tribunal removed as a result of bvas, we'll again have significantly less numbers than we did in 2018.

The ss and se will still have lower numbers considering that 213,000 voted in anambra before bvas

garfield1:
The ss and se will still have lower numbers considering that 213,000 voted in anambra before bvas

The numbers would triple now our son is on the ballot

HIGHESTPOPORI:
The numbers would triple now our son is on the ballot

But your sons were also on the ballot under apga your beloved party

alsudan:
The Only SW State Thiefnubuu will win is Ekiti.

Obi will Sweep Ogun, Lagos and Ondo.

Atiku will edge Oyo and Osun

Thiefnubuu will manage Ekiti

u must be a fool, to think Peter Obi will win in Ogun state, no agent, which kind useless party

garfield1:
Mostly conducted in urban areas.once you get to the rural areas,you hardly find obi fans.the apc structure will supprws his votes

This means that majority of the enlightened and educated Yorubas are support Peter Obi while majority of the illiterates in the village who vote along tribal sentiments are supporting Tinubu.

Does this not mean that Peter Obi is a better candidate than Tinubu?

Why have you not align with the enlightened Yorubas or are you an illiterate in a village in Ogun state?

garfield1:
But your sons were also on the ballot under apga your beloved party

Apga is a regional party

garfield1:
Exactly.a greater number will vote obi but pdp and apc have enough to get good votes also preventing a sweep.In the end,obi may win but narrowly

See your yeye mouth like narrowly. 25th is almost here. Una go cry fire.

garfield1:
But your sons were also on the ballot under apga your beloved party

You lose credibility when you say silly stuff like this lol

Also your comments here consistently show that you banking on vote-suppression, vote-rigging and vote-buying for your party to win. You know the people of the country are completely against APC. It’s shameful don’t you think lol

May the will of the people prevail this time

Vote Obi, or literally anyone else but APC <3