₦airaland Forum

The Classic Man @tkb417

This is my Nigerian Presidential Election analysis… The analysis will focus on Labor, APC, PDP, NNDP and others

I arrived at my conclusions based on the following

- Last election results pattern
- State Guvnor influences
- Tribal/Religious sentiments
- State of the Nation

The 6 zones under focus….

NE, SE, NC, SS, NW, SW

NorthWest

There are 7 States in NorthWest
Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Sokoto, zamfara, Kebbi

APC polled 72% of total votes in 2019… Buhari was on d ballot

Currently APC has 6 States out of the 7 states in their control

Based on current realities in NorthWest, Atiku and Kwankwaso also playing some big roles in how the numbers pan out

Labor 5.4%
APC down to 49.3%
PDP 32.3%
NNPP 11.9%
Others 1%

NorthEast

Just like in NorthWest… APC got 72% of total votes in 2019- The Buhari factor

Today, the 6 States are divided equally with 3 Controlled by PDP Guvnors: Bauchi, Taraba and Adamawa

APC: Gombe, Yobe and Borno

NorthEast seems to be a battle ground in 2023 with Lawan, Shettima, Zulum poised to take the battle to the Prince of Adamawa.. not forgetting the Binani effect

For NorthEast

Labor 1.8%
APC down to 48.4%
PDP 46.9%
NNPP 1.9%
Others 1%

North Central

Straight to the point here, not minding the codswallop u see everyday on Twitter Re: NC

North Central includes Kogi, Kwara, Nassarawa, Niger, Plateau, Benue.. ill add FCT

5 of the States are controlled by APC Guvnors. Benue the only PDP State.

As it stands today

Benue is tipped to fall to Reverend Hyacinth Alia the APC candidate..

Labor: 19%
APC 49%
PDP 29%
NNPP 2%
Others 1%

SouthWest

Nothing has changed in SW since 2019.. Same numbers will be repeated

Labor: 10%
APC: 59%
PDP: 29%
NNPP: 1%
Others: 1%

SouthEast

Labor: 72%
APC: 12%
PDP: 15%
NNPP and Others: 1%

South South

Labor 40%
APC 29%
PDP 29%
NNPP and others 2%

The stories behind the numbers

In 2019 APC polled 55.60% of total votes

PDP did 41.22%

From closer look, APC has dropped numbers from 55% to about 45%

The Atiku Northern factor, the poor performance of Ahab and a few other factors ensured the decrease

The poll points to an APC rout.. 45.1% of total votes

PDP: 31.9%

Labor 17.3%

NNPP 4.7%

Others 1%

But wait for it..

What is instructive is, If PDP were United with Obi, Kwankwanso, Wike

The poll would be reading

APC 45.1%

PDP 53.9%

Others 1%

If the poll ends this way, its a Pyrrhic victory for APC

A combined opposition in the next election would most likely end APCs reign

Summaries from each zones

SE will post d biggest % win for any candidate with Obi posting 70% win

NorthWest as usual would account for about 10% of total votes cast in the election

Every election season, d Party that wins Kwara wins Presidential.. Its not changing this year

APC will win in 4 regions

Labor will take 2 regions

But the huge % win in SE wont help. The % of total votes cast from SE will be less than 3% (based on INEC data released so far)

The summary

To dethrone an incumbent, opposition needs to come together.

Another pointer

If the election were to hold in the South Alone.. Labor would coast to victory

This reminds us of CPC before the merger with ACN..

As at today Feb 16, 2023

The only path to victory for PDP is if APC pull out of the contest

The only path to victory for Labor is if we are looking for a Southern President

In 2027, if they come back together as a one big family, the possibilities are endless

Ire oh

https://twitter.com/tkb417/status/1626093778162397184

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Previous threads.

Dele Sobowale: Atiku Will Win Nigeria's Most Disputed Election
https://www.nairaland.com/7566728/dele-sobowale-atiku-win-most

Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election
https://www.nairaland.com/7566708/jarus-forecast-2023-presidential-election

it's very weird, you expect APC to win in states where they have an APC government, but believe PDP will loose overwhelmingly in states with PDP government, because of Peter Obi?

Despite the fact the labour party hasn't received any defections from the PDP government.

You expect tribalism and religion to earn Peter Obi votes, but believe tribalism and religion won't earn Atiku and Kwankwaso votes, make it make sense na abeg

Any Mumu that just buy Twitter verification will start reeling out ewedu statistics.
The ewedu man kept SW on lock for Escobar, saying nothing changed, tiefnubu urchins will be shocked.

Delusion is allowed, Atiku is coming

Mylove55:
everyone in the north knows is the turn of the southern president,
The north will not play tribal and religion sentiment

I'm guessing everyone means, just you, because I don't know that.
And If it's truly south turn, the best Southern candidate is Peter Obi.

We're only interested in voting the best, that's Atiku .

tkb417

https://www.nairaland.com/tkb417

https://twitter.com/tkb417

Nna mehnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

One yororba fool will just sit in his grandparents old building and will be typing thrash on social media.

The fool said PDP 20% in Abia State?

FYI Peter Obi is winning Abia 90%

Here's mine

Feb 25 remains just 7 days for all this online nonsense to stop... On Jagaban's mandate i stand gidigba

Jagaban is Nigeria next president.

All these polls and assumptions are a waste of time. U assume that in the south a sitting gov can't tell people who to vote but u assume in the north, the people are cows who move in the direction of the governors.

More reactions

nedu666:
All these polls and assumptions are a waste of time. U assume that in the south a sitting gov can't tell people who to vote but u assume in the north, the people are cows who move in the direction of the governors.

Allow them to continue deceiving themselves.Imagine writing that Tinubu will win the NW and NE Lol

nedu666:
All these polls and assumptions are a waste of time.

They are not a waste of time. They are premium entertainment. Entertainment is not a waste of time. It relieves stress and prolongs life.

Agbado analysis

Anybody who thinks that Tinubu will get more votes than Atiku in NW is sick

Tinubu will win south west because it's his region,the same Tinubu will win north that is outside his region.
Tinubu supporters are really funny

Tinubu wants to dissociate himself from Buhari's failure at the same time wants to inherit Buhari's 12m votes.

Tinubu and his supporters are truly funny

Interesting

I think I agree, but u see SW, PDP can't av 29%

TINUBU- 70%
Atiku-15%
Obi-15%

.

commedy of the year

The day no far again...

God bless our incoming President/VP.

I can't wait to watch this Zombidiots cry by this time next week

Beer parlour drunk analysis.

Next week Saturday no far again

Agbadorians will like this poll conducted in op bedroom,but will reject Anap, Bloombergs, own from the field, Ok make Una dey play.

Ohk. All of a sudden, everyone including urchins have become pollsters, churning out polls different from balabu, bu bulaba

Ire oh!

K