₦airaland Forum

By Tonye Barcanista

At the conclusion of the Presidential, governorship and National Assembly elections in 1998 and 1999, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) triumphed over the All Peoples Party (APP) and Alliance for Democracy (AD) to emerge Nigeria's most dominant political party in the beginning of the fourth republic, as the party won the Presidential election, 66 out of 109 seats in the Senate and about 200 out of 360 seats in the Federal House of Representatives. In addition to these, the Party had comfortable control in 21 out of 36 States across the Federation, leaving the APP and AD with 6 and 9 states respectively.

In 2003, the PDP performed even better than it did in 1999. The Party retained the Presidency and increased its seats in the Senate and House of Representatives to 76 and 223 seats respectively. In addition to that feat, PDP increased the number of states under control to 27 (initially 28 until Anambra was upturned in favor of APGA). The growth of stature of PDP simply meant shrinking of APP and AD control of States to 7 and 1 respectively - meaning both parties lost 2 and 5 states respectively.

At the 2007 elections, it was clear that AD has gone to extinction with newly formed Action Congress (AC) that was led by a faction of AD taking its place as the main opposition in the Southwest. However, at the conclusion of the general election, the PDP further consolidated its dominance of Nigeria's politics. The party retained the Presidency, increased its seats in the Senate to 86 (from 79) and 260 from 223 in the House of Representatives. The PDP also increased its control of States to 31. The number later reduced to 26 when Anambra was returned to APGA (2007), Ondo was upturned to LP (2009), and Edo (2010), Ekiti (2010) and Osun (2010) went in favor of opposition AC through judicial pronouncements.

After the 2007 election, Chief Vincent Ogbulafor, the National Chairman of PDP in 2008, boasted that “The PDP is a party for all and it is set to rule Nigeria for the next 60 years. I don’t care if Nigeria becomes a one-party state. We can do it and the PDP can contain all”. That statement drew condemnation from the opposition but what could they have done?

Meanwhile, the ANPP (previously known as APP) only managed to retain 4 States, while the new block in town; Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA) and AC got 2 States and 1 state respectively. AD was completely annihilated, ANPP's annihilation was but a matter of time.

At the 2011 general election, though PDP reinforced its dominance by retaining the presidential seat and dominating the National Assembly, the party showed signs that it was not invisible after all. The PDP control in the Senate fell to 71, while its House membership was reduced to 202. The Party also saw a decline in the number of States under its control to 23. On the other hand, the AC and APGA increased their control of States to 8 and 2 respectively, ANPP further fell to 3, while an ambitious Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) got 1 State under its belt.

In 2015, the PDP was eventually demystified. The Party lost the Presidential election, and lost control in both Chambers of the National Assembly, winning 48 and 140 seats in the Senate and House of Representatives respectively. The States under the control of PDP was equally reduced to 11. This was further reduced to 9 following the Party loss of Ekiti and Ondo States in 2016. The PDP was demystified by the All Progressives Congress - a merger of ACN (formerly AC), ANPP, CPC, and a faction of APGA. The capacity of the APC was swelled with the entrance of a group of aggrieved senior PDP leaders known as New PDP.

In 2019, despite dwindling popularity of APC, PDP could not defeat the Party at the Presidential election. The partu also saw a further decline in its seats in the Senate and House of Representatives to 45 and 128 respectively. The Party however got an increase in States to 14 (initially 15 until judicial pronouncement that returned Imo State to APC).

Penultimate to 2023 election, PDP was bedeviled with internal crisis similar to the crisis it experienced in 2015. The result of the election saw the Party losing the Presidential election to the APC accordin to official result. The PDP further saw a decline in Seats in the Senate and House of Representatives to 36 and 107 respectively according to official results. The party further saw a decline in the number of states in its control to 12.

The interesting thing about the 2023 election is the loss of Southeast and Southsouth geopolitical zones to the Labour Party (led by breakaway PDP members) at the Presidential election. The two zones are historically a comfortable turf to the party in every presidential election since 1999. Furthermore, PDP could only managed to win in one (northeast) out of the six zones in the country - a sharp decline from its previous fortunes.

At present, the political war of attrition between a faction led by five influential governors (known as G5) and the group loyal to the Presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar seem not to be over - both groups are employing all the political card to outdo the other. Even an event organised by the Party’s Governors Forum for the its outgoing governors and governors-elect was boycotted by the G5 Governors and their supporters. The crack in the Party is very visible, and will further sink the party if left unattended.

Conclusively, it remains to be seen whether or not the party, that once pride itself the largest in Africa, will bounce back to reckoning. But the PDP cannot bounce back except it addresses its myriads of internal issues, and make the party attractive to the GenZ and other young Nigerians through holistic reforms.

Tonye Barcanista writes from FCT, Abuja.

PDP has made a lot of mess in this country and has given way for a monster-like party aka Association of Past Criminals to continue from where it stopped.

The way I see APC, they may never lose national elections till the end of Nigeria because they have evil people in every arm of government.

PDP won't be able to win presidential elections again.

TonyeBarcanista:
By Tonye Barcanista

Conclusively, it remains to be seen whether or not the party, that once pride itself the largest in Africa, will bounce back to reckoning. But the PDP cannot bounce back except it addresses its myriads of internal issues, and make the party attractive to the GenZ and other young Nigerians through holistic reforms.

Tonye Barcanista writes from FCT, Abuja.

Election don finish..No more post from you attacking Peter Obi.

Atiku, you master unifier can't unify his PDP. Political party no be polygamy.

Southeast has passed a message in strong terms.

sonature1:
PDP has done a lot of mess in this country and has given way for a monster-like party aka Association of Past Criminals to continue from where it stopped.

The way I see APC, they may never lose national elections till the end of Nigeria because they have evil people in every arm of government.

PDP won't be able to win presidential elections again.

The painful reality is that PDP cannot bounce back except it addresses its internal issues and make the Party attractive to young Nigerians. A lot of young Nigerians appear to be at parallel with the Party at present.

As for APC, they are not invincible. Their weakness was seen in the last election. They simply need a viable and united opposition to challenge them in future elections.

PDP major obstacle at the moment is Alhaji Atiku Abubakar.
The younger men in the party are seeing him as a threat which they believed his time has pass.

My party could have won the Election if it had focused on the election instead of the interest of some personality & focusing on LP. Despite that, Prof yakubu helped APC

APC is a really a strong party. I expect the SW to be home to APC with the emergence of tinibu.
Obviously, PDP isn’t as strong as it used to be in the south. However, it is still stronger in the whole of northern Nigeria. As a matter of fact, PDP is stronger in 2023 in the north compared to 2019.
The LP has taken over the SE and I see it continuing that way. LP has zero candidate from SS, it’s still under the control of PDP. However, I expect APC to penetrate SS more than ever before.

As it is presently, APC is the party to beat. PDP is more likely to uproot APC than any other party. Performance of Tinibu will determine if the nation will vote for him come 2027. I verdict is I see tinibu becoming the best Nigerian president since democracy.

Additionally, you senators, reps etc in the APC that are feeling being neglected by the ruling party, the mostly likely party to be defected is still the PDP. 80% of northern politicians will decamp to PDP if need be and few to NNPP. The same I would say in the SW and SS. Only the SE will most likely consider the LP as the first option. There’s no denying that some restructing in terms of leadership change is needed and harmony needs to the brought in in the PDP to position it for 2027.

Tonye 2023 was d year PDP would have bounce back but Obi and his flat head obidients crumbled everything...but surely d party will never die

madridguy:
PDP major obstacle at the moment is Alhaji Atiku Abubakar.
The younger men in the party are seeing him as a threat which they believed his time has pass.

Atiku was never d problem bros,Atiku won north west and north east but obi destroyed his votes in d south south and southeast knowing fully well dt labour party cannot win

sonature1:
PDP has done a lot of mess in this country and has given way for a monster-like party aka Association of Past Criminals to continue from where it stopped.

The way I see APC, they may never lose national elections till the end of Nigeria because they have evil people in every arm of government.

PDP won't be able to win presidential elections again.

the last time i check you are not God.

Yes 100%

Jostoman:
the last time i check you are not God.

god is not a politician

Jones4190:
god is not a politician

mr supreme court judge

The PDP may never rise again, because:


1) The biggest problem with the PDP at the moment is the sheer lack of leaders who are good negotiators. When you're leading powerful individuals having the right negotiation and conflict resolution skills cannot be overemphasised. That's how the APC started out, and are still together today, because, somehow, they just know how to pacify the people who matter. Atiku should have negotiated better and sought for ways to pacify Obi and the G5 immediately after the primaries. Ayu was a liability that overstayed his welcome due to Atiku's pride. Ayu was completely redundant to anything of electoral worth that happened in the last election.

2) The PDP is still living on the grand delusion that it is still the party to beat. This mentality is one of the reasons they are yet to play actual opposition politics at the scale the APC did it. I can't believe that the PDP allowed Buhari a peaceful 8years in power in spite of the monumental failings of the administration. Pre-2015, the APC leveraged the media to demonise every single GEJ policies, while pushing their narrative of how they would have done it better. The PDP is yet to paint the picture of the APC in a way that sways public opinion of the party. If GEJ's tenure witnessed a rise in inflation from 12% to 22% in a matter of 4 years, GEJ would probably have been impeached due to the massive public outcry the APC would have whipped. The political strategy employed by the PDP does not in any way reflect opposition.

3) Most PDP leaders do not care for the party any more. The last election more than showed that most politicians in the PDP just weren't interested in pouring money into the party in a way that matches pre-2015. Most just want to secure their tickets and their zones, and that's it.

4) The level of demarketing the APC did to the PDP pre-2015, is almost indelible. In fact, it would take a very, very sustained period of combined good governance and leadership by PDP elected officials to overturn the impression people have for the party. In 2014, while the PDP were using the media to perpetuate the idea the the APC was a party for extremists, the APC completely won the war of labelling by demonising them. The name PDP was so so unattractive at some point that a name change was even considered by party leaders. .

5) The PDP must do away with Atiku once and for all. He's not very popular in the North for starters. People only rally around him in votes worth due to the ineptitude experienced in the last 8 years. If Tinubu leads better (which some expect) Atiku would fizzle out of relevance. Also, he's a bad strategist. After multiple failed Presidential contests, he has quite possibly depleted his dispensable cash. At the moment, he is of no political value to the party. He has lost his chance for people to trust him.

This is the reason I said Alhaji Atiku is the problem. The young politician in PDP sees Atiku as someone that his time has passed and only trying to use their time. I can bet you, if Atiku come out again in the year 2027, the result will be poorer to what he score in this year election.

iokpebholo:
Atiku was never d problem bros,Atiku won north west and north east but obi destroyed his votes in d south south and southeast knowing fully well dt labour party cannot win

PDP can still come back.
APC will begin to dwindle in the North as they will become the major opposition since they are not with the presidency.
APC is already showing signs it will not be able to pacify all the interests in their midst.
PDP's biggest mistake was ceding control of the party to riff raff govs like fayose and Wike in its early years in the opposition. That said, folks like Atiku also contributed with his Dubaism. He should have stayed back to organise the party properly after 2019.

YES. LET OBJ AND GEJ REBUILD PDP.

No!

PDP is dead.

PDP died the day it lost the youths.

TonyeBarcanista:
By Tonye Barcanista

At the conclusion of the Presidential, governorship and National Assembly elections in 1998 and 1999, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) triumphed over the All Peoples Party (APP) and Alliance for Democracy (AD) to emerge Nigeria's most dominant political party in the beginning of the fourth republic, as the party won the Presidential election, 66 out of 109 seats in the Senate and about 200 out of 360 seats in the Federal House of Representatives. In addition to these, the Party had comfortable control in 21 out of 36 States across the Federation, leaving the APP and AD with 6 and 9 states respectively.

In 2003, the PDP performed even better than it did in 1999. The Party retained the Presidency and increased its seats in the Senate and House of Representatives to 76 and 223 seats respectively. In addition to that feat, PDP increased the number of states under control to 27 (initially 28 until Anambra was upturned in favor of APGA). The growth of stature of PDP simply meant shrinking of APP and AD control of States to 7 and 1 respectively - meaning both parties lost 2 and 5 states respectively.

At the 2007 elections, it was clear that AD has gone to extinction with newly formed Action Congress (AC) that was led by a faction of AD taking its place as the main opposition in the Southwest. However, at the conclusion of the general election, the PDP further consolidated its dominance of Nigeria's politics. The party retained the Presidency, increased its seats in the Senate to 86 (from 79) and 260 from 223 in the House of Representatives. The PDP also increased its control of States to 31. The number later reduced to 26 when Anambra was returned to APGA (2007), Ondo was upturned to LP (2009), and Edo (2010), Ekiti (2010) and Osun (2010) went in favor of opposition AC through judicial pronouncements.

After the 2007 election, Chief Vincent Ogbulafor, the National Chairman of PDP in 2008, boasted that “The PDP is a party for all and it is set to rule Nigeria for the next 60 years. I don’t care if Nigeria becomes a one-party state. We can do it and the PDP can contain all”. That statement drew condemnation from the opposition but what could they have done?

Meanwhile, the ANPP (previously known as APP) only managed to retain 4 States, while the new block in town; Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA) and AC got 2 States and 1 state respectively. AD was completely annihilated, ANPP's annihilation was but a matter of time.

At the 2011 general election, though PDP reinforced its dominance by retaining the presidential seat and dominating the National Assembly, the party showed signs that it was not invisible after all. The PDP control in the Senate fell to 71, while its House membership was reduced to 202. The Party also saw a decline in the number of States under its control to 23. On the other hand, the AC and APGA increased their control of States to 8 and 2 respectively, ANPP further fell to 3, while an ambitious Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) got 1 State under its belt.

In 2015, the PDP was eventually demystified. The Party lost the Presidential election, and lost control in both Chambers of the National Assembly, winning 48 and 140 seats in the Senate and House of Representatives respectively. The States under the control of PDP was equally reduced to 11. This was further reduced to 9 following the Party loss of Ekiti and Ondo States in 2016. The PDP was demystified by the All Progressives Congress - a merger of ACN (formerly AC), ANPP, CPC, and a faction of APGA. The capacity of the APC was swelled with the entrance of a group of aggrieved senior PDP leaders known as New PDP.

In 2019, despite dwindling popularity of APC, PDP could not defeat the Party at the Presidential election. The partu also saw a further decline in its seats in the Senate and House of Representatives to 45 and 128 respectively. The Party however got an increase in States to 14 (initially 15 until judicial pronouncement that returned Imo State to APC).

Penultimate to 2023 election, PDP was bedeviled with internal crisis similar to the crisis it experienced in 2015. The result of the election saw the Party losing the Presidential election to the APC accordin to official result. The PDP further saw a decline in Seats in the Senate and House of Representatives to 36 and 107 respectively according to official results. The party further saw a decline in the number of states in its control to 12.

The interesting thing about the 2023 election is the loss of Southeast and Southsouth geopolitical zones to the Labour Party (led by breakaway PDP members) at the Presidential election. The two zones are historically a comfortable turf to the party in every presidential election since 1999. Furthermore, PDP could only managed to win in one (northeast) out of the six zones in the country - a sharp decline from its previous fortunes.

At present, the political war of attrition between a faction led by five influential governors (known as G5) and the group loyal to the Presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar seem not to be over - both groups are employing all the political card to outdo the other. Even an event organised by the Party’s Governors Forum for the its outgoing governors and governors-elect was boycotted by the G5 Governors and their supporters. The crack in the Party is very visible, and will further sink the party if left unattended.

Conclusively, it remains to be seen whether or not the party, that once pride itself the largest in Africa, will bounce back to reckoning. But the PDP cannot bounce back except it addresses its myriads of internal issues, and make the party attractive to the GenZ and other young Nigerians through holistic reforms.

Tonye Barcanista writes from FCT, Abuja.

A party that refuses to reward loyalty is not ready

24 years people gave you 90% loyalty ...when it got to their turn you pushed out their popular candidate because you think they can't win elections


If in 2027 PDP doesn't still give an Igbo man ticket they would still lose

PDP would soon have zero governoship in South east

iokpebholo:
Atiku was never d problem bros,Atiku won north west and north east but obi destroyed his votes in d south south and southeast knowing fully well dt labour party cannot win

How you guys expected Igbos to vote PDP show you guys don't know Igbos one bit ...remove obi Igbos would still never have voted PDP

PDP betrayed igbos ,Igbo especially the people ( u know Igbos think independent of their leaders ) ....if obi wasn't contesting Igbos would have shared their votes

24 years of loyalty but you think Igbos can't be voted for president ? Smh

iokpebholo:
Tonye 2023 was d year PDP would have bounce back but Obi and his flat head obidients crumbled everything...but surely d party will never die

Yes Igbos should have voted PDP na as what ? Taking Igbos support for granted is what killed PDP

Had PDP presented obi there won't have been G5

TonyeBarcanista:
The painful reality is that PDP cannot bounce back except it addresses its internal issues and make the Party attractive to young Nigerians. A lot of young Nigerians appear to be at parallel with the Party at present.

As for APC, they are not invincible. Their weakness was seen in the last election. They simply need a viable and united opposition to challenge them in future elections.

You can't unite unless you are just and equitable

PDP should count south east out of its influence ...Igbo rather vote APC than PDP right now ...it's that bad

Once Enugu governor is removed PDP would have zero Igbo governos zero

The valid statistics reeled out by the OP, underscore the colossal task that Tinubu took on to overcome PDP and reduce that useless party to a wailing opposition in Nigeria.


Tinubu, na man you be.

Why they lost out and may take some time to recover even though, it's still Nigeria's largest opposition party.

iokpebholo:
Atiku was never d problem bros,Atiku won north west and north east but obi destroyed his votes in d south south and southeast knowing fully well dt labour party cannot win

Which North West did Atiku win?

Atiku lost to Asiwaju in the North Central and North West.

Asiwaju defeated Atiku and Obi in the North

iokpebholo:
Atiku was never d problem bros,Atiku won north west and north east but obi destroyed his votes in d south south and southeast knowing fully well dt labour party cannot win

Atiku destroyed everything by running as the PDP candidate instead of allowing a SE candidate to emerge.

The loss of SE support meant that Atiku or PDP will no longer be able to win any of the SE states.
It also means PDP will no longer be able to get 25% of votes in Abuja and Lagos.

And SS states with heavy indigenous Igbo populations like Delta and Rivers becomes more difficult for PDP to make serious headway, in the future.

These are 9 states that Igbos can significantly influence. PDP miscalculated badly

OfoIgbo:
Atiku destroyed everything by running as the PDP candidate instead of allowing a SE candidate to emerge.

The loss of SE support meant that Atiku or PDP will no longer be able to win any of the SE states.
It also means PDP will no longer be able to get 25% of votes in Abuja and Lagos.

And SS states with heavy indigenous Igbo populations like Delta and Rivers becomes more difficult for PDP to make serious headway, in the future.

These are 9 states that Igbos can significantly influence. PDP miscalculated badly

Which would make the voting bloc of the "old PDP" consistently divided to usher in APC's hegemony.

It's like a third Party taking over New York, California and Illinois in the US. The democrats will lose Presidential Elections before the first vote is cast.

PDP members have always been the only major problem of PDP.
if PDP go into any election as a single unit without any issues , NO PARTY WILL BE ABLE TO WIN THEM , and all that boils down to strong leadership , when obj was the president , he was the party leader and he ruled and controlled the party with a strong grip but GEJ came in with his docile soft hands and spoiled everything .
in 2015 the reason why pdp lost was because pdp members,governors and major stake holders left the party and went to apc . if they had stayed in pdp there is no way buhari would have won that election , lets look at 2023 , the same thing and history has repeated itself again , 5 Governors of pdp and other notable pdp stalwarts decided to work against the party eg fayose and co, if they had all worked for pdp there is no way tinubu would have won that election , even fayose ,wike and co have openly said it that they worked against pdp.

The solution is for pdp to find a credible strong leader to give good leadership and direction to the party . wike and his group wants to take over pdp and if this doesn't happen , they may decide to either join apc or create their own political party .

N3TRAL:
Which would make the voting bloc of the "old PDP" consistently divided to usher in APC's hegemony.

It's like a third Party taking over New York, California and Illinois in the US. The democrats will lose Presidential Elections before the first vote is cast.

Then so be it.

If PDP does not see the wisdom in zoning their presidential ticket to the SE that kept faith with PDP through thick and thin, then PDP does not deserve to be a national party.

Thankfully LP won this presidential election, so let's wait for the judiciary to do their duty.

OfoIgbo:
Then so be it.

If PDP does not see the wisdom in zoning their presidential ticket to the SE that kept faith with PDP through thick and thin, then PDP does not deserve to be a national party.

Thankfully LP won this presidential election, so let's wait for the judiciary to do their duty.

Delusional much 😂

iokpebholo:
Tonye 2023 was d year PDP would have bounce back but Obi and his flat head obidients crumbled everything...but surely d party will never die

It was turn of the south. Nothing you say can change that.

I didn't know Atiku needed Obi to win.