₦airaland Forum

obembet:
I read all this article and I see alot of sense there. Let pray for Tinubu to deliver his best also for pray him to live long.

I hope ur fellow Obidient won't tag u corn 🌽. I Ruth said something similar to this but she was treat by her fellow Obidient... They nearly kill her.

happney65:
Dear Penguin,

I didn't want to reply this post but my spirit keeps on pushing me back. I want you to bookmark this and come back to it in about a year or so may the universe grant us good life.

You see there is little or no difference in Tinubu and Buhari and you are already falling for the same set of propaganda they deployed in 2015.

Referring to Buhari's appointees as almost illeterates is unfortunate. Adamu Adamu might be a nonesense minister of Education, but he isn't an illeterates as he is a PHD Holder. So therefore Tinubu's appointees won't be different from that of Buhari.

I mean Buhari's appointees might be mostly of his ethnic block but they were Men and women of timber and calibre. They couldn't perform because their head which is the president do not seen to know what he is doing.

Claiming Tinubu has best hands is also a fallacy. Apart from Lagos, The other states in the SW his people were in charge are nonesense states. Osun state was the Poverty capital of the SW courtsey of Tinubu's right hand Man aregbesola.

Or is it Ekiti? That place is more or less a dead zone. Even Lagos under him became the second worst city to live in the world.

Let's not talk about Lagos itself because even if you put a 10year old as Govornor it can run with or without his input. It was made possible being former federal capital of Nigeria and not the magic of Tinubu

2. Claiming security will improve under Tinubu is a fallacy as there will be little or no difference in the current security architecture.

You referred to the security architecture established by Govornors of the SW which is Amotekun.

Let me bust your brain. It is only Lagos in the SW that doesn't have a single Amotekun force despite sanwo Olu attending their summits.

The creation of Amotekun has helped the SW a lot most especially Oyo state. Yet Tinubu's Lagos do not have one single Amotekun officer because of Tinubu's ambition and not wanting to offend the North.

You see he owes the North,He dare not do anything against them. He wants to be president just to answer the name. He won't do anything spectacular. We will only be taxed more.

No restructuring will happen under him. That I am sure about. Maybe some might happen if Akpabio becomes Senate president on Tuesday which I hope he does.

But if the North becomes Senate president,just forget the Tinubu presidency because they will have him by his scrotum.

The so-called subsidy removal is for government to have more money to embezzle and not for nothing else. It will only lead to more hardship for Nigerians and nothing more.

If I can remember the others you talked about I'll come edit this post

Thanks

LegendHero:
Okay let’s discuss it without Bias.

In this last election, do you think Obi as the presidential candidate and Atiku as VP will generate more votes than what Tinubu/Shettima would have gotten?

Almost half of the votes Atiku had in the North will be totally wiped out if Obi had been the presidential candidate. Infact more than half.

See Kwakwanso, he prefers to be a minister under Tinubu than to be a VP under Obi. If you think about it for a minute, you will understand why an Obi being on the ballot might not necessarily produce the winning ticket.

aswani:
What did I just read from Penguin2?

Despite the lengthy nature of the tome, this is the kind of stuff that we should be reading.

We don't have to back the same candidate but we can still appreciate each others opinion.

Well done Penguin2, there's hope for Naija yet!!

happney65:
Dear Penguin,

I didn't want to reply this post but my spirit keeps on pushing me back. I want you to bookmark this and come back to it in about a year or so may the universe grant us good life.

You see there is little or no difference in Tinubu and Buhari and you are already falling for the same set of propaganda they deployed in 2015.

Referring to Buhari's appointees as almost illeterates is unfortunate. Adamu Adamu might be a nonesense minister of Education, but he isn't an illeterates as he is a PHD Holder. So therefore Tinubu's appointees won't be different from that of Buhari.

I mean Buhari's appointees might be mostly of his ethnic block but they were Men and women of timber and calibre. They couldn't perform because their head which is the president do not seen to know what he is doing.

Claiming Tinubu has best hands is also a fallacy. Apart from Lagos, The other states in the SW his people were in charge are nonesense states. Osun state was the Poverty capital of the SW courtsey of Tinubu's right hand Man aregbesola.

Or is it Ekiti? That place is more or less a dead zone. Even Lagos under him became the second worst city to live in the world.

Let's not talk about Lagos itself because even if you put a 10year old as Govornor it can run with or without his input. It was made possible being former federal capital of Nigeria and not the magic of Tinubu

2. Claiming security will improve under Tinubu is a fallacy as there will be little or no difference in the current security architecture.

You referred to the security architecture established by Govornors of the SW which is Amotekun.

Let me bust your brain. It is only Lagos in the SW that doesn't have a single Amotekun force despite sanwo Olu attending their summits.

The creation of Amotekun has helped the SW a lot most especially Oyo state. Yet Tinubu's Lagos do not have one single Amotekun officer because of Tinubu's ambition and not wanting to offend the North.

You see he owes the North,He dare not do anything against them. He wants to be president just to answer the name. He won't do anything spectacular. We will only be taxed more.

No restructuring will happen under him. That I am sure about. Maybe some might happen if Akpabio becomes Senate president on Tuesday which I hope he does.

But if the North becomes Senate president,just forget the Tinubu presidency because they will have him by his scrotum.

The so-called subsidy removal is for government to have more money to embezzle and not for nothing else. It will only lead to more hardship for Nigerians and nothing more.

If I can remember the others you talked about I'll come edit this post

Thanks

tensazangetsu20:
No one can be worst than buhari. I recalled some fools saying this in 2015 about gej. Anyway, by November eyes go start dey clear. There's no difference between tinubu and buhari. I would even water tinubu will be twenty times worst. This is Nigeria

Tsolutionifede:
yes, it will surely be terrible for u

happney65:
Dear Penguin,

I didn't want to reply this post but my spirit keeps on pushing me back. I want you to bookmark this and come back to it in about a year or so may the universe grant us good life.

You see there is little or no difference in Tinubu and Buhari and you are already falling for the same set of propaganda they deployed in 2015.

Referring to Buhari's appointees as almost illeterates is unfortunate. Adamu Adamu might be a nonesense minister of Education, but he isn't an illeterates as he is a PHD Holder. So therefore Tinubu's appointees won't be different from that of Buhari.

I mean Buhari's appointees might be mostly of his ethnic block but they were Men and women of timber and calibre. They couldn't perform because their head which is the president do not seen to know what he is doing.

Claiming Tinubu has best hands is also a fallacy. Apart from Lagos, The other states in the SW his people were in charge are nonesense states. Osun state was the Poverty capital of the SW courtsey of Tinubu's right hand Man aregbesola.

Or is it Ekiti? That place is more or less a dead zone. Even Lagos under him became the second worst city to live in the world.

Let's not talk about Lagos itself because even if you put a 10year old as Govornor it can run with or without his input. It was made possible being former federal capital of Nigeria and not the magic of Tinubu

2. Claiming security will improve under Tinubu is a fallacy as there will be little or no difference in the current security architecture.

You referred to the security architecture established by Govornors of the SW which is Amotekun.

Let me bust your brain. It is only Lagos in the SW that doesn't have a single Amotekun force despite sanwo Olu attending their summits.

The creation of Amotekun has helped the SW a lot most especially Oyo state. Yet Tinubu's Lagos do not have one single Amotekun officer because of Tinubu's ambition and not wanting to offend the North.

You see he owes the North,He dare not do anything against them. He wants to be president just to answer the name. He won't do anything spectacular. We will only be taxed more.

No restructuring will happen under him. That I am sure about. Maybe some might happen if Akpabio becomes Senate president on Tuesday which I hope he does.

But if the North becomes Senate president,just forget the Tinubu presidency because they will have him by his scrotum.

The so-called subsidy removal is for government to have more money to embezzle and not for nothing else. It will only lead to more hardship for Nigerians and nothing more.

If I can remember the others you talked about I'll come edit this post

Thanks

Penguin2:
First of all, Atiku is no longer eligible to serve as Vice President so he’s out of the equation.

But regardless, I totally understand what you are saying. The hatred for Igbos is real.

But what do you suggest the Igbos do? Give up and stop trying or continue to vote for northerners?

happney65:
Dear Penguin,

I didn't want to reply this post but my spirit keeps on pushing me back. I want you to bookmark this and come back to it in about a year or so may the universe grant us good life.

You see there is little or no difference in Tinubu and Buhari and you are already falling for the same set of propaganda they deployed in 2015.

Referring to Buhari's appointees as almost illeterates is unfortunate. Adamu Adamu might be a nonesense minister of Education, but he isn't an illeterates as he is a PHD Holder. So therefore Tinubu's appointees won't be different from that of Buhari.

I mean Buhari's appointees might be mostly of his ethnic block but they were Men and women of timber and calibre. They couldn't perform because their head which is the president do not seen to know what he is doing.

Claiming Tinubu has best hands is also a fallacy. Apart from Lagos, The other states in the SW his people were in charge are nonesense states. Osun state was the Poverty capital of the SW courtsey of Tinubu's right hand Man aregbesola.

Or is it Ekiti? That place is more or less a dead zone. Even Lagos under him became the second worst city to live in the world.

Let's not talk about Lagos itself because even if you put a 10year old as Govornor it can run with or without his input. It was made possible being former federal capital of Nigeria and not the magic of Tinubu

2. Claiming security will improve under Tinubu is a fallacy as there will be little or no difference in the current security architecture.

You referred to the security architecture established by Govornors of the SW which is Amotekun.

Let me bust your brain. It is only Lagos in the SW that doesn't have a single Amotekun force despite sanwo Olu attending their summits.

The creation of Amotekun has helped the SW a lot most especially Oyo state. Yet Tinubu's Lagos do not have one single Amotekun officer because of Tinubu's ambition and not wanting to offend the North.

You see he owes the North,He dare not do anything against them. He wants to be president just to answer the name. He won't do anything spectacular. We will only be taxed more.

No restructuring will happen under him. That I am sure about. Maybe some might happen if Akpabio becomes Senate president on Tuesday which I hope he does.

But if the North becomes Senate president,just forget the Tinubu presidency because they will have him by his scrotum.

The so-called subsidy removal is for government to have more money to embezzle and not for nothing else. It will only lead to more hardship for Nigerians and nothing more.

If I can remember the others you talked about I'll come edit this post

Thanks

Penguin2:
Thank you my dear.

In the end, our collective goal is the betterment of Nigeria. A Nigeria that works for all us.

happney65:
Dear Penguin,

I didn't want to reply this post but my spirit keeps on pushing me back. I want you to bookmark this and come back to it in about a year or so may the universe grant us good life.

You see there is little or no difference in Tinubu and Buhari and you are already falling for the same set of propaganda they deployed in 2015.

Referring to Buhari's appointees as almost illeterates is unfortunate. Adamu Adamu might be a nonesense minister of Education, but he isn't an illeterates as he is a PHD Holder. So therefore Tinubu's appointees won't be different from that of Buhari.

I mean Buhari's appointees might be mostly of his ethnic block but they were Men and women of timber and calibre. They couldn't perform because their head which is the president do not seen to know what he is doing.

Claiming Tinubu has best hands is also a fallacy. Apart from Lagos, The other states in the SW his people were in charge are nonesense states. Osun state was the Poverty capital of the SW courtsey of Tinubu's right hand Man aregbesola.

Or is it Ekiti? That place is more or less a dead zone. Even Lagos under him became the second worst city to live in the world.

Let's not talk about Lagos itself because even if you put a 10year old as Govornor it can run with or without his input. It was made possible being former federal capital of Nigeria and not the magic of Tinubu

2. Claiming security will improve under Tinubu is a fallacy as there will be little or no difference in the current security architecture.

You referred to the security architecture established by Govornors of the SW which is Amotekun.

Let me bust your brain. It is only Lagos in the SW that doesn't have a single Amotekun force despite sanwo Olu attending their summits.

The creation of Amotekun has helped the SW a lot most especially Oyo state. Yet Tinubu's Lagos do not have one single Amotekun officer because of Tinubu's ambition and not wanting to offend the North.

You see he owes the North,He dare not do anything against them. He wants to be president just to answer the name. He won't do anything spectacular. We will only be taxed more.

No restructuring will happen under him. That I am sure about. Maybe some might happen if Akpabio becomes Senate president on Tuesday which I hope he does.

But if the North becomes Senate president,just forget the Tinubu presidency because they will have him by his scrotum.

The so-called subsidy removal is for government to have more money to embezzle and not for nothing else. It will only lead to more hardship for Nigerians and nothing more.

If I can remember the others you talked about I'll come edit this post

Thanks

Bluntguy:
It's not appointments that gets the Igbos by your side as a Nigerian president. It is how far you go in healing the wounds of the past. You just need to make them feel wanted in the Nigeria project. Anything aside from that, you are in for a long tortuous journey in your presidency. The Igbos don't kowtow to anyone. You can count on them if they promise you their support. They don't pretend to like you if you begin your government by marginalizing them. Tinubu's government is just a few days old so they are waiting to see where he leans. That will determine how his government fares in the next four years except the courts say that Peter Obi is the rightful winner of the last election.

Penguin2:
Disclaimer: This is not that your “Obidients are converting to Tinubu supporters” bullshit. This piece is clearly informed by unbiased logical and critical analysis as informed by reason unlike some folks who close their eyes to truth because if they admit it, it will hurt their divide.

With the above having been stated, I want to try to predict what a Tinubu Government will be like.

Everyone knows that Peter Obi is my candidate and my support for him is borne out of informed conviction that he is the best man for the job and would help Nigeria build strong institutions rather than strong individuals as is presently the case. And while we await for the courts to give their verdict on Obi’s petition before them, I will be giving my prediction in supposition that Tinubu will be president for 4 years at least.

GENERAL OVERVIEW
No Nigerian needs an analysis to agree that Buhari’s 8 years was a mistake we should have avoided was it not some people’s greed. Every sector of the economy went on downward spiral until they all hit rock buttom. It was one of the major reasons why a lot of voters didn’t find Tinubu’s APC attractive anymore but he won anyways; even if we have misgivings on how he won. Now he’s here, what do I think he would do differently? I’ll tell you by trying to itemize them into different subheadings for better understanding and so this piece doesn’t get clumsy.

APPOINTMENTS
One of the things Buhari got wrong was appointments. He appointed only people of his ethnic stock. But that wasn’t the problem. The problem was that these people he was appointing were average at best, and stark illiterates most of the time. Somehow however, supporters of his party, including Tinubu supporters, cheered him on and said he was free to appoint only people from Daura if he wished to. Buhari was emboldened by that and he continued. The end result was the disaster his government turned out to become. But it is imperative to state that Buhari’s government didn’t fail because he appointed majorly only Fulanis to positions, no, his government failed because those he appointed, most of the time, had no idea what the hell they were supposed to do (the ex-Minister of Education corroborated this when he said he had no idea of what he was supposed to do in Education ministry when he was appointed).

But Tinubu…
Just like Buhari, he is most likely going to give more appointments to people of his ethnic stock (Yoruba) although not to the level of Buhari (nobody can be worse than Buhari). The only difference however is that the Yorubas Tinubu is going to appoint are going to be bright and sound minds, accomplished in their own rights. Yes, that’s where Tinubu is different from Buhari. Because while Buhari is surrounded majorly by illiterates, Tinubu has a sea of intelligentsia and competent people surrounding him. And so, even though Tinubu would be rewarding his boys, the boys are great minds who are most likely going to deliver in any mandate they are given which would help things move in the positive direction.

SECURITY
Deep down his heart, Tinubu is pained by the daily massacre of Nigerians all over the country by bandits (baptismal name of Fulani herdsmen). The only reason Tinubu has never been vocal about this is because he didn’t want to offend the north and the northern establishment where he was hoping to get votes from during elections.

What happened during Southwest herdsmen crisis should tell you where he stands. During that time when herdsmen were ravaging the Southwest, the governors of the region came together to form a regional security network and Tinubu never opposed it. Need I tell you it got his closet approval?

So, in security, Tinubu is going to appoint competent hands to head various security agencies with matching orders to halt the killings perpetuated by these marauders. So, I am seeing a tremendous increase in security situation due to increased offensive against the insurgents.

Tinubu is aware of the Fulani expansionist agenda which is aimed at forcefully taking lands from the aborigines of different peoples of Nigeria and trust me when I tell you that Tinubu does not like that at all. He knows he was going to go against a lot of Fulani interests which is why he chose a Kanuri man, another aboriginal Nigerian as his Vice President. The Kanuris has a lot of scores to settle with the Fulanis as do the Fulanis with the Kanuris which makes them not to be best of friends. Recall that Usman Danfodio was defeated by the Kanuris which halted his Jihad into that part of the country and is the reason the Emirs of Maiduguri are not Fulanis.

In a nutshell, so I don’t confuse you, I predict tremendous increase in security under Tinubu as he would ruthlessly deal with the perpetrators, and even their sponsors where he can.

SUBSIDY
Subsidy should have gone in 2012. It is the reason why some of us have misgivings with Tinubu because of the kind of vicious politics he played with the issue of subsidy in 2012. Tinubu knew better than what he did than. He knew that subsidy payment was crippling the resources of the Federal Government but he still went ahead to mobilize protesters against that fantastic decision and bullied Jonathan into rescinding the decision (I blame Jonathan for being so weak). Had subsidy been removed in 2012, we would have forgotten about its harsh effects as alternatives would have emerged and Nigerians adjusted as we always do.

But like someone said, “the best time to remove subsidy was in 2012, the next best time is now”. So, subsidy has to go no matter how painful the side effects may be. The currents are like the bitter pills we have to swallow to cure our malaria.

What some of us are saying, however, is that the removal should have been phased, as proposed by Peter Obi. While cushionary measures should have been set up before the removal as against this brigandage approach with which the entire process was handled.

Now, with subsidy removal, more funds will be available to the FG to share with State Governments. This increase in funds is most likely going to help government at all levels to embark on more lofty and life changing projects for the public good; for those that want to work. While it might mean more money to steal for criminals in power.

RESTRUCTURING
Tinubu didn’t mention restructuring in his manifesto so as not to offend his northern friends and the northern oligarchs, but believe me when I say that Tinubu will, or at least attempt to, restructure this country.

Recall that during his time as Lagos Governor, he increased the number of Local Governments in Lagos from 20 to 60 (I can’t recall the exact number). His argument then was that if Kano State with lesser population than Lagos can have 44 Local Governments, then Lagos deserves more. It was this issue to brought him at loggerheads with then president Obasanjo who asked that Tinubu revert to old 20 Local Governments structure or the FG would no longer release Local Governments funds for Lagos State. Tinubu refused to revert to old 20 Local Governments and Obasanjo seized Local Governments allocations for Lagos State. Lagos Government then took the FG to court and won, which is why the new Local Governments that Tinubu created still stands till today; though not addressed as Local Governments. Other states later took a cue from Lagos and created more administrative areas out of their existing Local Governments.

So, with the above background, you should know that Tinubu has a lot of disagreements with Nigeria’s current structure and would definitely want to look into it. I’ve heard that landmass is part of the calculation for sharing formula from FAAC. Such barbaric calculation was definitely done to favour northern states which has more landmass. I doubt Tinubu will tolerate such calculation anymore.

Similarly, it’s most likely he might introduce State and Community Policing. Maybe not in the way Obi may have proposed in his manifesto but I envisage Tinubu restructuring the policing system to ensure it’s closer to the communities to ensure better security. Remember he introduced RRS in Lagos.

Apart from the police, I equally envisage him unbundling a lot of things that northern establishment has refused to unbundle for a long time because the deliberate imbalance was benefiting the north.

RELIGION
Forget Muslim-Muslim ticket, Tinubu is an Agnostic. Agnostics are people who don’t believe in anything; not in God nor in Satan, nor in powers of spirits. I might be wrong about the details of his believe system but I think Tinubu purposely chose to publicly identify as a Muslim for political reasons. I am surprising that after studying the dynamics of Nigerian politics, he felt he would probably achieve more, and get the north to trust him more, if he identified as a Muslim. So, it is my thinking that Tinubu doesn’t really believe in Allah nor His teachings nor in any moral code; Tinubu has his own moral code. I would want to think that Tinubu believes more in the power of money, strategy and brute force where money and strategy fails. That’s why he lobbies a lot; making deals. He’d offer money to those who can take money, offer position to those who want position and find a way to dislodge anyone who refuses his entreaty.

What I’m saying here is that Nigerians may not have to worry much about Tinubu and his Vice President being Muslim because the President believes in nothing; except money is a religion. As such, I see the religion or adherents of any religion being shortchanged. Tinubu has never showed signs of extremism in the past.

DOWNSIDES
Having mentioned the good things to expect from Tinubu, I want to conclude this piece with the downside of what a Tinubu government portends.

IGBOS:
When Tinubu first came into politics in 1999, he extended hands of friendship to the Igbos. This he did by appointing some Igbos into his cabinet. His intention was to try to build a bridge between the East and the West so they can unite and challenge the north with common and united front. But I think Tinubu’s frosty and messy relationship with Obasanjo caused his image to dented amongst the Igbos who saw Obasanjo as a friend of Ndigbo. Having seen that Igbos have taken the side of Obasanjo, Tinubu the abandoned any further push towards friendship with the Igbos and chose rather to align with the north against the East. This decision further damaged Tinubu’s image in the East and amongst Igbos who now became his most vicious opponents.

Having achieved power, I envisage a subtle sustenance of the age long Nigerian State policy of “Never Allow the Igbos Rise Again”(NAIRA). I say this because Tinubu no longer hides his disdain for the region and its people which was corroborated by his erstwhile supporter and former SGF, Babachir Lawal who said Tinubu asked them not to go to the Southeast during campaign for the APC primaries. So, Igbos should not expect anything from Tinubu’s government. This is not to say that he will not do one or two projects in the East, but overall the affairs of the East would be least of Tinubu Government’s preoccupation. The only thing is that the Southeast would benefit from some of the unbundling that Tinubu will do through restructuring.

ALPHA BETA/TAXES
Tinubu commissioned Alpha Beta to collect Lagos Government taxes towards the tail end of his administration as Lagos governor. Granted that the company has helped Lagos increase their IGR and eliminated a lot middlemen who would have been pilfering large chunk of the IGR, people have consistently expressed misgivings with the percentage this company takes on every amount it generates. But despite accusations, Lagos has retained Alpha Beta as its tax collector.

I might be wrong, but I won’t be surprised if Tinubu attempts to make Alpha Beta the agency in charge of revenue collection for the Federal government. The only thing here is that to make that happen, he must go through the NASS. Would the NASS approve it? No one knows; but Tinubu has his ways.

Again, I see increase in taxes and widening of the tax net. So, Nigerians should be prepared to start paying tax on a lot of things. Just as those who have never paid taxes in their life should get ready to start paying taxes.

EMPOWERMENT OF CRONIES:
Tinubu will empower his cronies and his boys/men; and he has a lot them. News is already circulating that his government plans to sell some of NNPC assets. Don’t be surprised when you see his business associates winning bids to buy those assets and even many more that would come in future.

CONCLUSION
I didn’t intend for this piece to be this voluminous but it ended up becoming so. But I need any reader who would read this to understand the submissions above are purely my personal opinion as informed by reason and devoid of any political, ethnic and primordial sentiments and biases.

So, while I hope that the courts will do justice and return Peter Obi as the duly elected President from the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria, I am predicting a positive presidency for Tinubu supposing he was to be there to be ther for four years.

But as with all social experiments that is always at the mercy of rational actors and unintended variables, the predictions above are subject to social and political variables that may alter one or two positions differently.

Penguin is a bird of reason!!!

Nlfpmod
Mynd44

garfield1:
The op try though I don't agree that tinubu dislikes igbos.babachir speaks carelessly,sounds more like a drunkard.why would you take him serious?

justified007:
All-round bullshit

saintopus:
The Yorubas and the Hausas are also heavy travellers these days. No one ethnic groups are concentrated within their region.

Haven said that, I would say the Nzogbu Nzogbu politics of the Igbos contributed to the last election downfall.

But the igbos are very interesting people. If they love you, they love you.

No pretence!!!

You can please them quite quickly. All you need do towards the next election is release Nnamdi KANU, you will see the trend change.

tensazangetsu20:
No one can be worst than buhari. I recalled some fools saying this in 2015 about gej. Anyway, by November eyes go start dey clear. There's no difference between tinubu and buhari. I would even water tinubu will be twenty times worst. This is Nigeria

Bluntguy:
It's not appointments that gets the Igbos by your side as a Nigerian president. It is how far you go in healing the wounds of the past. You just need to make them feel wanted in the Nigeria project. Anything aside from that, you are in for a long tortuous journey in your presidency. The Igbos don't kowtow to anyone. You can count on them if they promise you their support. They don't pretend to like you if you begin your government by marginalizing them. Tinubu's government is just a few days old so they are waiting to see where he leans. That will determine how his government fares in the next four years except the courts say that Peter Obi is the rightful winner of the last election.

obembet:
I read all this article and I see alot of sense there. Let pray for Tinubu to deliver his best also for pray him to live long.

I hope ur fellow Obidient won't tag u corn 🌽. I Ruth said something similar to this but she was treat by her fellow Obidient... They nearly kill her.

Penguin2:
Disclaimer: This is not that your “Obidients are converting to Tinubu supporters” bullshit. This piece is clearly informed by unbiased logical and critical analysis as informed by reason unlike some folks who close their eyes to truth because if they admit it, it will hurt their divide.

With the above having been stated, I want to try to predict what a Tinubu Government will be like.

Everyone knows that Peter Obi is my candidate and my support for him is borne out of informed conviction that he is the best man for the job and would help Nigeria build strong institutions rather than strong individuals as is presently the case. And while we await for the courts to give their verdict on Obi’s petition before them, I will be giving my prediction in supposition that Tinubu will be president for 4 years at least.

GENERAL OVERVIEW
No Nigerian needs an analysis to agree that Buhari’s 8 years was a mistake we should have avoided was it not some people’s greed. Every sector of the economy went on downward spiral until they all hit rock buttom. It was one of the major reasons why a lot of voters didn’t find Tinubu’s APC attractive anymore but he won anyways; even if we have misgivings on how he won. Now he’s here, what do I think he would do differently? I’ll tell you by trying to itemize them into different subheadings for better understanding and so this piece doesn’t get clumsy.

APPOINTMENTS
One of the things Buhari got wrong was appointments. He appointed only people of his ethnic stock. But that wasn’t the problem. The problem was that these people he was appointing were average at best, and stark illiterates most of the time. Somehow however, supporters of his party, including Tinubu supporters, cheered him on and said he was free to appoint only people from Daura if he wished to. Buhari was emboldened by that and he continued. The end result was the disaster his government turned out to become. But it is imperative to state that Buhari’s government didn’t fail because he appointed majorly only Fulanis to positions, no, his government failed because those he appointed, most of the time, had no idea what the hell they were supposed to do (the ex-Minister of Education corroborated this when he said he had no idea of what he was supposed to do in Education ministry when he was appointed).

But Tinubu…
Just like Buhari, he is most likely going to give more appointments to people of his ethnic stock (Yoruba) although not to the level of Buhari (nobody can be worse than Buhari). The only difference however is that the Yorubas Tinubu is going to appoint are going to be bright and sound minds, accomplished in their own rights. Yes, that’s where Tinubu is different from Buhari. Because while Buhari is surrounded majorly by illiterates, Tinubu has a sea of intelligentsia and competent people surrounding him. And so, even though Tinubu would be rewarding his boys, the boys are great minds who are most likely going to deliver in any mandate they are given which would help things move in the positive direction.

SECURITY
Deep down his heart, Tinubu is pained by the daily massacre of Nigerians all over the country by bandits (baptismal name of Fulani herdsmen). The only reason Tinubu has never been vocal about this is because he didn’t want to offend the north and the northern establishment where he was hoping to get votes from during elections.

What happened during Southwest herdsmen crisis should tell you where he stands. During that time when herdsmen were ravaging the Southwest, the governors of the region came together to form a regional security network and Tinubu never opposed it. Need I tell you it got his closet approval?

So, in security, Tinubu is going to appoint competent hands to head various security agencies with matching orders to halt the killings perpetuated by these marauders. So, I am seeing a tremendous increase in security situation due to increased offensive against the insurgents.

Tinubu is aware of the Fulani expansionist agenda which is aimed at forcefully taking lands from the aborigines of different peoples of Nigeria and trust me when I tell you that Tinubu does not like that at all. He knows he was going to go against a lot of Fulani interests which is why he chose a Kanuri man, another aboriginal Nigerian as his Vice President. The Kanuris has a lot of scores to settle with the Fulanis as do the Fulanis with the Kanuris which makes them not to be best of friends. Recall that Usman Danfodio was defeated by the Kanuris which halted his Jihad into that part of the country and is the reason the Emirs of Maiduguri are not Fulanis.

In a nutshell, so I don’t confuse you, I predict tremendous increase in security under Tinubu as he would ruthlessly deal with the perpetrators, and even their sponsors where he can.

SUBSIDY
Subsidy should have gone in 2012. It is the reason why some of us have misgivings with Tinubu because of the kind of vicious politics he played with the issue of subsidy in 2012. Tinubu knew better than what he did than. He knew that subsidy payment was crippling the resources of the Federal Government but he still went ahead to mobilize protesters against that fantastic decision and bullied Jonathan into rescinding the decision (I blame Jonathan for being so weak). Had subsidy been removed in 2012, we would have forgotten about its harsh effects as alternatives would have emerged and Nigerians adjusted as we always do.

But like someone said, “the best time to remove subsidy was in 2012, the next best time is now”. So, subsidy has to go no matter how painful the side effects may be. The currents are like the bitter pills we have to swallow to cure our malaria.

What some of us are saying, however, is that the removal should have been phased, as proposed by Peter Obi. While cushionary measures should have been set up before the removal as against this brigandage approach with which the entire process was handled.

Now, with subsidy removal, more funds will be available to the FG to share with State Governments. This increase in funds is most likely going to help government at all levels to embark on more lofty and life changing projects for the public good; for those that want to work. While it might mean more money to steal for criminals in power.

RESTRUCTURING
Tinubu didn’t mention restructuring in his manifesto so as not to offend his northern friends and the northern oligarchs, but believe me when I say that Tinubu will, or at least attempt to, restructure this country.

Recall that during his time as Lagos Governor, he increased the number of Local Governments in Lagos from 20 to 60 (I can’t recall the exact number). His argument then was that if Kano State with lesser population than Lagos can have 44 Local Governments, then Lagos deserves more. It was this issue to brought him at loggerheads with then president Obasanjo who asked that Tinubu revert to old 20 Local Governments structure or the FG would no longer release Local Governments funds for Lagos State. Tinubu refused to revert to old 20 Local Governments and Obasanjo seized Local Governments allocations for Lagos State. Lagos Government then took the FG to court and won, which is why the new Local Governments that Tinubu created still stands till today; though not addressed as Local Governments. Other states later took a cue from Lagos and created more administrative areas out of their existing Local Governments.

So, with the above background, you should know that Tinubu has a lot of disagreements with Nigeria’s current structure and would definitely want to look into it. I’ve heard that landmass is part of the calculation for sharing formula from FAAC. Such barbaric calculation was definitely done to favour northern states which has more landmass. I doubt Tinubu will tolerate such calculation anymore.

Similarly, it’s most likely he might introduce State and Community Policing. Maybe not in the way Obi may have proposed in his manifesto but I envisage Tinubu restructuring the policing system to ensure it’s closer to the communities to ensure better security. Remember he introduced RRS in Lagos.

Apart from the police, I equally envisage him unbundling a lot of things that northern establishment has refused to unbundle for a long time because the deliberate imbalance was benefiting the north.

RELIGION
Forget Muslim-Muslim ticket, Tinubu is an Agnostic. Agnostics are people who don’t believe in anything; not in God nor in Satan, nor in powers of spirits. I might be wrong about the details of his believe system but I think Tinubu purposely chose to publicly identify as a Muslim for political reasons. I am surprising that after studying the dynamics of Nigerian politics, he felt he would probably achieve more, and get the north to trust him more, if he identified as a Muslim. So, it is my thinking that Tinubu doesn’t really believe in Allah nor His teachings nor in any moral code; Tinubu has his own moral code. I would want to think that Tinubu believes more in the power of money, strategy and brute force where money and strategy fails. That’s why he lobbies a lot; making deals. He’d offer money to those who can take money, offer position to those who want position and find a way to dislodge anyone who refuses his entreaty.

What I’m saying here is that Nigerians may not have to worry much about Tinubu and his Vice President being Muslim because the President believes in nothing; except money is a religion. As such, I see the religion or adherents of any religion being shortchanged. Tinubu has never showed signs of extremism in the past.

DOWNSIDES
Having mentioned the good things to expect from Tinubu, I want to conclude this piece with the downside of what a Tinubu government portends.

IGBOS:
When Tinubu first came into politics in 1999, he extended hands of friendship to the Igbos. This he did by appointing some Igbos into his cabinet. His intention was to try to build a bridge between the East and the West so they can unite and challenge the north with common and united front. But I think Tinubu’s frosty and messy relationship with Obasanjo caused his image to dented amongst the Igbos who saw Obasanjo as a friend of Ndigbo. Having seen that Igbos have taken the side of Obasanjo, Tinubu the abandoned any further push towards friendship with the Igbos and chose rather to align with the north against the East. This decision further damaged Tinubu’s image in the East and amongst Igbos who now became his most vicious opponents.

Having achieved power, I envisage a subtle sustenance of the age long Nigerian State policy of “Never Allow the Igbos Rise Again”(NAIRA). I say this because Tinubu no longer hides his disdain for the region and its people which was corroborated by his erstwhile supporter and former SGF, Babachir Lawal who said Tinubu asked them not to go to the Southeast during campaign for the APC primaries. So, Igbos should not expect anything from Tinubu’s government. This is not to say that he will not do one or two projects in the East, but overall the affairs of the East would be least of Tinubu Government’s preoccupation. The only thing is that the Southeast would benefit from some of the unbundling that Tinubu will do through restructuring.

ALPHA BETA/TAXES
Tinubu commissioned Alpha Beta to collect Lagos Government taxes towards the tail end of his administration as Lagos governor. Granted that the company has helped Lagos increase their IGR and eliminated a lot middlemen who would have been pilfering large chunk of the IGR, people have consistently expressed misgivings with the percentage this company takes on every amount it generates. But despite accusations, Lagos has retained Alpha Beta as its tax collector.

I might be wrong, but I won’t be surprised if Tinubu attempts to make Alpha Beta the agency in charge of revenue collection for the Federal government. The only thing here is that to make that happen, he must go through the NASS. Would the NASS approve it? No one knows; but Tinubu has his ways.

Again, I see increase in taxes and widening of the tax net. So, Nigerians should be prepared to start paying tax on a lot of things. Just as those who have never paid taxes in their life should get ready to start paying taxes.

EMPOWERMENT OF CRONIES:
Tinubu will empower his cronies and his boys/men; and he has a lot them. News is already circulating that his government plans to sell some of NNPC assets. Don’t be surprised when you see his business associates winning bids to buy those assets and even many more that would come in future.

CONCLUSION
I didn’t intend for this piece to be this voluminous but it ended up becoming so. But I need any reader who would read this to understand the submissions above are purely my personal opinion as informed by reason and devoid of any political, ethnic and primordial sentiments and biases.

So, while I hope that the courts will do justice and return Peter Obi as the duly elected President from the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria, I am predicting a positive presidency for Tinubu supposing he was to be there to be ther for four years.

But as with all social experiments that is always at the mercy of rational actors and unintended variables, the predictions above are subject to social and political variables that may alter one or two positions differently.

Penguin is a bird of reason!!!

Nlfpmod
Mynd44

Bluntguy:
I tend to agree with you on most of the things you wrote, but I still see Tinubu trying to do everything possible to get the Igbos on his side because he knows that if they oppose him the way they did Buhari, he may spend the next four years trying to put his feet on the ground. Take it or leave it, you cannot govern Nigeria successfully by ignoring the Igbos or fighting with them. You will end up praying for your tenure to end quicker than you thought just like Buhari.

LegendHero:
Let me tell you this, no politician need to appease to the Igbos because the Igbos only play one-directional politics. They face one way, no matter the circumstances, their votes will always be one way. So why do you need to appease them?

I’m not saying it’s a bad thing. It’s very good and I hope the Yorubas can think like that too in our voting pattern but it just seems we and the Igbos are totally different people and both method have their advantage and disadvantages.

The Yoruba way of having a distinct mind and ability to vote differently is one of the greatest advantage because it makes politicians appease the Yorubas. You will have a mind that, this people might vote me and they might not. I can appease to 35% of them to vote me and leave the 65% to do what they will do either ways. Jonathan did it in 2011 and did it again in 2015. Atiku did it in 2019 and Atiku/Obi did it in 2023.

Like you said, Tinubu told his comrades that they don’t need to invest too much in campaigning in the SE because he knows there is nothing on earth he can do that will make them vote him. So to him, the SE is useless to his success and when he eventually won, he is not bounded by any fears of SE voting against him in the next election like he would towards the North. Infact he may choose to not construct one single runway in the SE and still win the next election. That is the danger of one-directional voting as a bloc. When you do that, you better succeed coz if not, politicians will see that the voting bloc is useless to them.

The strongest enemy is the one you can’t predict his moves. SE is not a strong enemy to any opposition politician, if not for the SS that always align in some brotherhood to the SE, you guys would have understood some things already about power games.

KingPure:
Thanks for taking 5-10mins of my precious time which I spend judiciously on thinking positively and creatively.

Having said that, I quoted you only, so I can quote you later, and I don't have to search everywhere before I find you in advance time.

LegendHero:
No, the hatred for all tribe is real. The hatred is just as much for Fulani/Hausa, Yoruba, and Igbo.

But why Yoruba and Hausa/Fulani get away with stuff is because somehow somehow, they play more diplomatic politics than the Igbos and it seems they actually do have the numbers.

@the bolded, the only glaring way is to use ACN methodology. That is take control of your region totally, find a rallying figure with influence, form coalition with a string Northern Party, play the VP to the Northern candidate while consolidating your strength, then demand for the presidential ticket on a side of strength.

I’ve noticed something. Most of the Igbo leaders always seek for power on the side of weakness. Look at Kalu for example, him crying on the floor means nothing. You must be powerful and that is the only way people can fear you. If Tinubu wasn’t powerful, the Northern leaders would have betrayed him long ago and give it to another Northerner and heaven won’t fall.

But the people in APC understood that Tinubu is very powerful too, there is no way that he can be cheated and the party will remain in power. You sideline Tinubu, APC is done for forever. It’s not even about Yoruba alone, it’s about Tinubu influence.

After Tinubu leave the scene, it will be very hard for the Yoruba to get someone like him and that means it’ll be hard for us to get to that presidential seat if Nigeria still exist. If Osinbajo had been in Tinubu shoes for that APC primaries, they would have sidelined him & the Yorubas and heaven will not fall.

franchasofficia:
So proud of you.



Honestly, it pays to be an Igbo person, very sincere in heart even though many misinterpret us and our good intentions, God will not let us down.



Well done bro